Saturday, March 28, 2009

Seven pitfalls to avoid in stock investing

By TEE LIN SAY

Investopedia columnist explores ‘forehead-slapping stock blunders’.

The past one month has been agonising for equity investors across the globe who have seen their portfolio deplete considerably. This then may be the time to take stock of the situation and analyse what are the pitfalls to avoid when investing in equities.

There are some basic principles of investing that one should always bear in mind. In a recent slideshow presentation, Investopedia columnist Glenn Curtis explored seven “forehead-slapping stock blunders” made by investors. We analyse these factors in the Malaysian context.

Mistake No. 1: Ignoring catalysts

According to Curtis, the No. 1 mistake is ignoring catalysts that drive companies’ earnings. He says proper valuation, calculating price/earnings (PE) ratios, and running cash-flow spreadsheets only provide half the picture when selecting a stock, as they merely depict where a company stands at that point in time and not, more importantly, where it is heading.

Therefore, in addition to a quantitative evaluation of a company, investors need to do a qualitative study to determine which catalysts will drive future earnings.

Take for example, Astro All Asia Networks plc. The counter, not unlike countless others, has been on a steady downtrend since January 2008.

It seemed to matter little that it was offering a dividend yield of some 7%, had cash of RM1.06bil and achieved record domestic subscriber base of 374,000 as of January this year.

While from a valuation perspective, one may deem the counter an attractive buy, but its share price kept falling. Why? Because investors were more concerned over its operations in Indonesia and the high provisions it has had to make. It recently announced a wider-than-expected loss of RM529mil for financial year ended Jan 31, 2009, largely due to losses from its Indonesian venture.

However, some analysts believe the company will return to the black in the current year (no further writedowns expected) and that it may declare higher dividends in the absence of any major capital expenditure requirement.

Mistake No. 2: Catching the falling knife

Buy when everyone is selling. That is easier said that done. Too often, investors buy in before all of the bad news is out, or before the stock stops its freefall.

“New lows in a company’s share price often beget further new lows, as investors see the shares dropping, they become disheartened and sell their shares. Waiting until the selling pressure has subsided is almost always your best bet to avoid getting cut on a falling-knife stock,” says Curtis.

In Malaysia, remember when crude palm oil prices were plunging alongside crude oil? Plantation heavyweights saw their share prices fall, which has yet to subside even now.

This time last year, Sime Darby Bhd was at RM9. Today, it hovers at RM5.55. Asiatic Bhd too was trading at RM7.40 a year ago while today it is RM4.04. IOI Corp Bhd has seen its share price drop from RM6.65 to RM3.82 on Thursday.

For investors who had started accumulating commodities or commodities-related stocks last October, they would have seen their portfolios dip by an average 30%.

For those who accumulated Resorts World Bhd last December, thinking its downside was close, especially since it hit its 52-week low of RM2.15 on Dec 12, how wrong they must have been.

The stock is now trading at its new low of RM1.92 despite its cash pile of RM4.55bil. It continues to be haunted by corporate governance and related-party transaction issues.

Looking purely at the historical PE ratio of a stock can be deceptive. More so when trying to buy a stock at its lowest historical PE.

“This is because if price is constant and earnings continue to drop, then the PE ratio will rise and distort the picture. You never know if you’re buying at the lowest price,” says a head of retail research at a local brokerage.

He says it is better to buy a stock when the related sector bottoms out.

“The way to gauge this point of inflection will be to compare the sectoral data with historicals during previous economic crisis,” he says.

Mistake No. 3: Failing to consider macroeconomic variables

Let’s say an investor finds a spectacular company to invest in. Valuations are reasonable and it has several new developments pending announcement. Fund managers are accumulating the shares and the stock looks ready to rock!

Hold your horses and check that enthusiasm.

The current macroeconomic conditions, both global and local, are going to largely dictate the sentiment and buying momentum of the stock.

“If the whole market is falling, there will be very few stocks that will go up. The odds of a retailer selecting these quality stocks are slim,” says a retail head.

The Malaysian investing environment at the moment is far from encouraging, particularly after the fourth quarter 2008 gross domestic product growth of 0.1% stunned the market.

Mistake No. 4: The issue with dilution

Another red flag to look out for are companies that issue millions of shares, hence causing a dilution in earnings per share.

Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) fell below RM4 on Monday, the first time in more than a decade, on concerns over its proposed RM6bil cash call and potential hefty impairment losses.

Following the announcement of a rights issue on Feb 24, the stock price has fallen 26% to RM3.98 from RM5.40.

Recall that Maybank has offered a rights issue of up to 2.2 billion new shares on the basis of nine-for-20.

The issue price for its proposed renounceable rights issue is fixed at RM2.74 per share, which represents a 34% discount to the theoretical ex-rights price of RM4.17 per share and a discount of 43% to the closing price of RM4.82 on Feb 24.

AmResearch says Maybank’s estimated earnings per share for the year ending June 30, 2010 will be diluted to 38 sen from 52.2 sen previously.

“The general perception of a company that raises capital during difficult times is that it is desperate and this will have a negative effect on its stock price,” says the retail head.

Curtin instead advises to try seeking companies that are repurchasing stock and, therefore, reducing the number of shares outstanding. This process not only increases earnings per share but also tells investors that the company feels there is no better investment than its own company at the moment.

Mistake No. 5: Not recognising seasonal fluctuations

Most sectors go through booms and bust. In other words, they are cyclical. Investors looking for stocks to buy, need to take into account the sectors that are at present in vogue.

For instance, would it be a good idea to invest in the semiconductor sector, knowing full well there’s a major slowdown in chip sales and a case of layoffs and inventory building up?

In the case of the retail and consumer sector, their sales go up and down depending on which part of the year it is. The year-end school holidays and festivities normally see sales picking up. At other times, sales are fairly staid.

Similarly, would it be wise to invest in a property company when the sector has gone through a five-year bull market, and will probably need to undergo a period of correction before it rises again?

“The fact is that many companies, such as retailers, go through boom-and-bust cycles year-in and year-out. Luckily, these cycles are fairly predictable, so do yourself a favour and look at a five-year chart before buying shares in a company,” says Curtis.

Mistake No. 6: Missing sector trends

While stocks can buck the larger trend, this behaviour usually occurs because there is some huge catalyst that propels the stock.

For the most part, companies trade in relative parity to their peers. This keeps the stock price movements within a trading band.

Let’s say an investor owns a banking stock in Malaysia. While Malaysian banks are not exposed to the huge debts and toxic assets of Citigroup, American International Group or Bank of America, Malaysian banks may likely be affected in a protracted downturn.

Not surprisingly, Public Bank Bhd, Maybank and Bumiputra-Commerce Holdings Bhd have come under heavy selling pressure on negative newsflow and a worsening economic outlook.

Financial valuations in Malaysia have pulled back substantially from a peak of 2.5 times price-to-book (P/B) in January 2008 versus 1.2 times P/B currently.

Hence, if other banks are experiencing certain negative perceptions or problems, most likely the Malaysian banks will also be affected. The same is true if the situation was reversed.

Mistake No. 7: Avoiding technical trends

Learning basic technical analysis can be very useful when deciding to take a position in a stock. For instance, would you bet heavily on stocks on Bursa Malaysia when the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trending down every day? Curtis says investors don’t have to be a chartist to be able to perform technical analysis.

“A simple graph depicting 50-day and 200-day moving averages as well as daily closing prices can give investors a good picture of where a stock is headed,” he says.

He advises investors to be wary of stocks that trade close to their average as it usually means it can sink even lower. The same can be said to the upside. Also, when volume trails off, so does the stock price.

“Sticking purely to fundamental analysis can be detrimental to one’s portfolio,” says the retail head.

He says technical analysis measures the real demand and supply for a particular stock. “It helps guide investors to determine the exit and entry points,” he says.

Thestar

Financial advisers should know clients’ risk tolerance

Globally, the financial crisis and market gyrations have unearthed several issues in relation to the selling of investment products. Some investors say they had been sold investments that were too risky. Others, who thought that they weren’t taking much risk, as the market was bullish, were caught by the steep slides in the values of their investments.

While risk tolerance doesn’t vary with the market, the perception of risk changes, says Paul Resnik, CEO of FinaMetrica, which provides psychometric risk profiling systems. Resnik was speaking at a behavioural finance luncheon talk organised by Deakin International Sdn Bhd, which specialises in psychology and behavioural finance tools.

One of the lessons he imparted is that there is a need for the financial adviser to be fully cognisant of the risk tolerance of his client. “Financial advisers tend to sell what they are most comfortable with, and they are generally more risk tolerant that their clients. Risk tolerance is often linked to overconfidence,” says Resnik.

The adviser should develop a financial plan together with the client, which should then form the basis for ongoing discussions, points out Resnik. “What I have been hearing from financial planners around the world is that clients are now asking them, ‘Why didn’t you tell me to sell when the market was at the top?’ The problem arises when the adviser allows the client to form a misconception of what he can do. If you can pick the top, what else can you do? Pick the bottom?”

While some quarters are asking for more regulation in the wake of several investing scandals and misselling claims, Resnik says it isn’t the answer. “Regulation in the US, the UK and Australia hasn’t stopped the mismatching of products. An extreme example is the selling of subprime loans to people who can’t afford them. Even with regulation, you can still check the boxes and get around the rules.” He advocates professional selling, where the adviser asks questions to find out what is needed by the client and the latter makes informed decisions, taking ownership of those decisions.

However, professional selling requires both buyers and sellers to be informed. “That’s the way it should be. You wouldn’t say to a car salesperson, ‘Here, take my money and do what you want to with it’. Why should you do that with an investment adviser? It’s imperative to self-educate,” he adds.

theedgemalaysia

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

投资局势未稳 现金为王

2009/03/23
●报道: 彭秋福、宋秀英、刘慧欣、龙佩君

今年的投资市场,我们听到最多的就是亏损与暴跌。无论是国内还是国际市场,无不哀鸿遍野,死伤无数。

如今,次贷危机这只“小蝴蝶”显然已经煽起了全球性的金融海啸,并且这场风暴很快就蔓延到众多实体经济领域。经济的冬天来了,投资者的冬天也来了。

股市狂跌、汇率动荡、金融产品危如累卵,几乎没有一项投资工具不遭遇沉重打击。

在各项投资都糟糕透顶之际,增加现金比重不失为一条减少损失的良方。在熊市中,下跌是市场的主旋律,正 所谓“熊市不言低”。当然,股市总有一天是要重新走“牛”的,虽然我们不可能预知下一轮牛市何时到来,但只要手中握有足够的现金,就不会在下一轮牛市启动 之时“弹尽粮绝”,从而白白错失了最佳的投资机会。正所谓“进可攻,退可守”。

投资的世界是一个没有硝烟的战场,尤其是在熊市中,亦有“得现金者得天下”一说。说到底,拥有现金便拥有了将来绝地反击的主动权。

马来西亚理财规划理事会会长纪华顺就是这套理论的推崇者。

储备现金粮弹 伺机出发

纪华顺赞成投资者在经济局势动荡不明时,尽量储备“粮弹”--现金,伺机在市场转好时入市。

“我个人就是这种做法,当去年金融市场波动激烈前,就已经有迹象显示风暴即将来临,我也把一些投资项目脱售套现。”

他说:“当然,我不是鼓励大家从此就只存现金在银行,而是在目前的波动时刻,暂时离开市场观察。但是,不要远离市场,大家应该继续观察市场,一有机会就要重新进场。”

纪华顺说:“钱应该投资在刀口上,稳稳当当反而没有大收获!”

他认为,这个经济淡季是投资房地产和股票的好时机,投资者要继续研究,不要放弃,在适当的时机就应进场。

但他提出:“高回酬不一定要选择高风险的地方,不过要懂得选择。”

以一个有数万令吉存款的青年为例,他说,在马来西亚就只有几个出路,要么就是放在银行生息,不然就是投资信托基金,或做生意创业,或投资地产、股票。

鼓励年轻人买屋

纪华顺鼓励年轻人投资房产,这至少可供己用或外租,是项较保守的投资。

他相信,房价在今年尾将还会下降至少20%,所以,他建议有意投资房地产者趁这段时间去物色房子,待年尾时机一到,楼市反弹时,就能够订购房地产了。

“做投资需要一个考虑的过程,先花时间做研究工作,安排好了房屋贷款等问题,时机一到时马上注资购买,这样可以抢先于别人。”

纪华顺也鼓励投资者在这个时候要投资股票,不过,他提醒投资者必定要多花时间研究,以根据它的调整起伏作为进场的指标。

“你现在不去看,不去研究,到时候你就不会下定决心,因为你没有把握什么时候最适合进场,所以准备功夫是非常重要的。”

他说,投资股票,在股市反弹股价转高的时候,可以选择脱手兑现,届时就会有更多的流动资金来购置房产。

投资是否该动用公积金?

针对公积金2008年派息率只有4.5%,会员该不该从第二户头提钱作投资,纪华顺受询时以“雨伞的功能”比喻公积金对国民养老的重要性。

他说,人们一般上会在多处准备一把雨伞,比如在车上、公司、家里各放一把伞,这是以备不时之需,同样的,公积金的作用也是如此,它是养老的备胎,可不动用则最好不要动用。

不过,他说,若会员认为从公积金户头提钱作的投资,能够为自己带来更大的保障,那便归会员本身去决定。

“我们的公积金本来就不多,如果你要从第二户头拿钱出来做房产投资也行,这毕竟是你自己的决策,不过你要看准市场才作投资。”

他提醒民众,在这段经济不景且政治局势不稳定的时期,投资者可先把钱“停泊”在银行或公积金户头,待一个观望过程后,才决定这笔资金的流向。

纪华顺:财经规划渡过经济危机 越没钱越要理财

经济不好的时期谈财经规划,可能很多人会说“我没钱还谈什么财务规划啊?”

但纪华顺完全不赞同这项说法,他说,正是因为经济不好人们手头紧,才更需要懂得规划财务,聪明运用手上有限的资金,以增加本身抵抗恶劣经济的筹码。

节流诚可贵开源价更高

纪华顺强调,当手头资金有限时,人们应该把钱投入到“有出息”的领域上,以开拓收入来源,这比单纯的节省开支更为实际,而且主动积极。

在开拓源流方面,他建议人们按照本身的强项和长处选择发展方向,他说,我国是发展农业的好地方,人们或可往养殖和种植领域探索、发展。

他以吉兰丹为例,指该州为配合市场需求而大量耕种香茅,这为该州创造了很大的商机,“你还可以选择种菜、种辣椒,这尤其在槟城、霹雳、森美兰等小镇是可行的。”

他说,农业的收益或许较慢,但作为附加的收入来源,这仍是值得投资的领域。

此外,他也建议民众开拓新的领域,用创意和创新制造商机,他以台湾为例,指饮食业者在小吃和点心的研发上不断求突破,让新产品成为招来客源的武器。

纪华顺不忘提醒被裁退者不要自怨自艾,反之应该趁着失业期间为自己增值,包括积极参与课程以提升自我竞争能力,“要做到自发自觉,只有在自己掌握了适合自己的方案去做时,效果才才是最好的。”

黄凯顺:“现金为王”有漏洞 投资理财不能停!

在全球股市低迷,投资市场呈现呆滞情况之际,一些理财及投资专家因此喊出了“现金为王”的口号,强调收好现金,减少投资,做足保本工作。

究竟现在最好的理财方式,是把钱收好,还是大举投资?

理财师黄凯顺本人就不太赞同现金为王的说法。

他认为,理财不分时机,真正的理财应该持续不断,贯彻始终。

他说:“怎么说现金为王?收着的钱,什么时候进场?没有理财,又哪来的现金?当仔细探讨这一策略时,就会发现很多漏洞。”

他本身提倡“先分配,后花费”的理财观念。每个月将薪水的20%用于投资,不管市道好坏,只要运用这个策略,长期而言还是能达到投资目标;若股市复苏,可获得的回报就更高。

“很多人认为,现在不适合投资。但股市什么时候才会到底?什么时候叫最高,什么时候又叫最低呢?最高和最低,总是要等到过去了,回头看才知道;投资的当下,却不清楚它的价位属于最高还是最低。”

“既然如此,不用管什么时候是底,现在很多蓝筹股及运作良好的公司,股票都折价了。既然都比以前便宜,为什么不进场投资?为什么还要等‘最低’?”

他也觉得,太强调“现金为王”会导致投资市场停滞,未必是正确的投资法则。

积极应对危机 解读“现金为王”

中国著名理财师胡明泉接受《理财第一》电邮访问,畅谈他对“现金为王”的解读:

目前,正值严重的国际经济危机,中国国内经济也有下滑迹象,如何保证国内经济的发展不受太大的影响,如何在危机中把握企业的发展机遇,正确理解“现金为王”的概念非常重要。

什么叫现金为王?有人认为:“现金为王”就是要手持现金,不要投资,不要消费。

我认为,这是对“现金为王”概念的严重误读。

现金的流动

“现金为王”是一个动态的概念,也是一个积极的概念。

从动态的角度讲,就是现金的流动。要讲现金为王,就必须讲现金的流动,不能流动的现金不能称王。

公司营运,必须高度关注现金流,关注现金的流入和流出。现金流的来源、运用和结构,是判断一个公司的财务动向、经营业绩和稳健程度的重要依据。一个成熟稳健的公司,其经营现金流在现金总流量中,一定是占有绝对较大的比重。

而一个狂热扩张的公司其筹资和投资的现金流一定大得非常;一个公司的偿债能力的高低和资产质量的重好坏,也可以通过企业经营的现金流量与负债规模或资产规模的对比分析得出结论。

从积极的角度讲,就是要求现金流的增加。企业必须极力寻求现金净值的最大化。如果,没有投资和经营,现金的增加几乎无法实现。

但是,无论是投资还是营运,都要看现金流量是否大于零,看现金流量是否是正值,对现金流小于零的项目必须放弃投资,对现金流为负数的经营活动必须进行分析,及时查找原因,采取措施,必要时,应果断停止经营。

“纸面富贵” 无多大意义

企业的利润可以通过技术手段进行操纵和虚增。例如一些公司通过多计折旧,多计减值,交叉持股等,使企业账面利润很大,但是,企业所拥有的这些利润和资产都是虚拟的,是泡沫,不能变为支付手段和真正的财富,我们把这种现象叫做“纸面富贵”,没有多大的意义。

对企业最有意义的是现金流,因为,企业的现金流直接关系到企业的财务安全,企业现金流一旦出现断裂,就会影响工资、采购及其他各项支付,从而使企业营运失常和瘫痪,最终走向破产。从这个意义上讲,现金流关乎企业的生命,比利润更加重要,这就是“现金为王”的真正内含。

同样的,这种观念也适用在个人投资者。

如果,不能正确理解“现金为王”的概念,手持现金不敢合理投资和消费,于个人、企业和国家都没有好处,而且,只会使情况变得越来越糟。

试想一想,如果出于手持现金的目的,基金抛售股票,股市就会崩盘;银行惜贷,中小企业就难以生存和发展;企业不去投资和经营,工人就会大量失业;如果个人都不消费,企业产品就无法销售。这样下去,整个经济就会窒息。

面对当前的经济环境,明智的做法是,擦亮眼睛,研读政策,危中择机,积极应对。

现金哪里去? 基金篇 跌得越深爬得更快 专家推荐股票基金

全球经济风暴来袭,手上拥有多余现金的人该如何善用这笔款项?

目前一般人认为,当面对金融风暴时,手上拥有现金者即是王,他们可以更低廉的价格进行各项投资,而信托基金则是其中一个投资项目。

大众信托基金一名组经理接受《理财第一》访问时说,当全球经济下滑,大马也不能幸免,同样受到金融风暴打击。

他说,当经济风暴出现时,许多人抱着观望态度,不敢进场投资基金,担心基金会进一步下滑。

他表示,股神巴菲特曾说过,当别人贪婪时,我们应该感到惧怕;当别人惧怕时,我们应该贪婪。

“目前大部分人都惧怕投资,人们应该把这个危机化为机会,趁低吸购基金,以赚取更高回酬。”

他举例说,大众信托自1981年推出首个基金以来,目前拥有60多个各类基金,目前最受追捧的是属于股票基金的大众中华精选(PCSF)。

“信托基金分为股票基金、平衡基金及债券基金,目前投资者是选择跌幅最大的基金,而大众中华精选则是其中之一。”

看好中国经济苏复能力

他指出,大众信托基金,包括中华精选主要是把基金投资在中国的蓝筹股,经济学者认为中国的经济苏复能力最强,因此中长期投资这项基金将是一项明智的选择。

“目前一些基金下跌近50% ,如果要在5年内回升到80% ,应该不会面对太大的阻力。”

该经理说,由于目前是面对全球金融风暴,也许需求更长的时间复苏;对于一些可以等上5至10年的人,采用多余的现金趁低吸购绝对是一项明智决定。

他表示,投资者亦可以提出公积金投资基金,在基金低廉时进行投资,将使公积金越滚越大,届时退休时,将取得更大笔的公积金作为退休用途。

他说,信托基金是一项健康、正确的投资工具,只要是短期内不急用的款项,都可定期注入购买基金。

股神巴菲特是教父 犹太人最爱现金

在华尔街有一条永恒的信念,那就是“现金为王”,这一信念也被“股神”巴菲特奉为圭臬。

过去一年,伯克希尔公司没有太大的并购活动,手中持有的现金流却高达443.3 亿美元,其中仅出售中石油H 股就回流40亿美元现金。

在众多公司股价大幅下滑之时,巴菲特以雄厚的现金实力来抄底。与巴菲特相比,犹太人对现金的重视程度几乎是到了不可思议的地步。如果你与犹太商人做生意,就明白他们对交易另一方的评价。他们的心中始终放不下的是“今天那个人究竟有多少现款?”

更令人惊讶的是他们对公司的态度是“今天那个公司换成现款究竟值多少?”

总而言之,他们的焦点是力求把一切东西都“现金化”,因而他们做生意时一般进行现金交易。他们认为纵然交易的对方,在一年后确能变成亿万富翁,亦难保证他明天不发生异变。

在缤纷复杂的社会中,有谁能知道明天如何?人、社会及自然每天都在变,只有现金是不变的,这是犹太人的信念。

狮城理财师唐国龙:现金为王≠存银行

在席卷全球的金融危机之下,保存实力、现金为王是很多投资者惨败之后的教训。而现金为王并非只意味着把现金存近银行或者买货币型基金,专家表示:所有适合自身流动性的配置,都是实现“现金为王”的捷径。

目前在新加坡一家外资机构服务的大马籍理财师唐国龙对《理财第一》说:“现金为王只是一种观念,时刻提醒自己谨慎投资而已。”

当然,面对国内外各类资产和商品等价格都深幅下跌,有投资者自然想到了借机“抄底”。而资产价格很便宜时,还保持“现金为王”是否明智?

唐国龙:“不论何时,我都推荐定期存款作为资产组合的一种不可或缺的方式。固定收益类的金融产品,它的利润下降,但估值是上升的。如果能够承受风险,长线投资基金还是值得推荐的。”

“我认为超短期的银行理财产品、货币市场基金、债券基金都可以算作广义的现金,只要保持流动性就好了。”

投资应以容易套现为前提

“关键就在于,这些产品必须很容易兑换为现金,因为现在的市场风险确实太大了!”

唐国龙表示,在行情趋势没有真正明朗之前,建议投资者谨慎投资。

他认为:“全球各大央行都在注资救市,而最终资金逐利必然有其选择的方向,在时刻保持关注的前提下,等趋势明朗再下手为时不晚。”

唐国龙的建议

● 把手上至少30%的投资,在未来1年内以现金方式储蓄;

● 购买固定回酬不高(略高于定存),但风险偏低的基金,如债券型基金;

● 如果要购买股票,还是选择一些抗跌性高的蓝筹股,因为过去这些股项也跟随大市下跌,价格更加合理;

● 容易使现金套牢的产品,如房地产、保险储蓄、长期定存都不是目前的最佳选择。

现金哪里去? 房地产篇 自住房屋入市好时机 投资房产再等6个月

金融市场依旧动荡,许多投资者都把焦点放在房地产,毕竟历史经验告诉我们,这是一个抗跌性比较强的领域。

马来西亚房地产商会顾问拿督曾福传则认为,现在是购买自住房屋的最佳时机,但却不适合作投资,至少还要观察3至6个月。

他说,现在还不适合买产业来“炒楼”或出租收息。

曾福传向《理财第一》指出,很多发展商推出的新屋子,屋价已经相当合理,价钱几乎接近他们要赚回来的盈利水平。

“由于市场需求减弱,他们的屋子卖不出,因此屋价已经跌至相当合理的水平,现在是买屋来居住的最佳时机。”

曾福传不认为国内的屋价还会再下跌,甚至跌至更低的谷底。

“目前屋价已跌了超过10%,但肯定不会跌至20%。若屋价降20%,本地的屋业发展商可以准备关门大吉了!”

此外,曾福传解释,如果要投资产业,最好再等3至6个月后,那时的产业市场将会跟着国家经济情况有所起色而趋于稳定。

“投资产业是要承担一定风险的,国家经济情况未稳定下来,我的劝告是要投资者最好先刹车一下!”

他补充,产业出租市场状况现在也很艰难,因此不适合买产业来出租。

二手楼盘仍有下跌风险

不过,曾福传指出,由于经济问题,许多人脱售二手产业,造成二手屋子将会再下跌。

他认为现阶段买双层排屋或三层排屋最好,因为这类屋子比较有保障,风险低。

“目前,双层排屋或三层排屋是要买屋者的首选,因此买了过后,无论是要转售或租出去都比较快。”

曾福传说:“现在要买无屋子不必太担心,只要选择的地点漂亮,这是将会有回收的长期投资计划。”

“产业跌了价,不用紧,当价钱回升时,它扬升的水平是很高的,而且会一直升上去!”

他以雪兰莪州和吉隆坡为例子,地点漂亮的地区包括白沙罗、蒲种、蕉赖等新兴城市地区。

曾福传提醒,要买屋子千万不要选择产业被炒的很激烈的地段,以免投资者蒙受严重亏损。

国家经济尚未稳定 陈钟灵:还是等一等吧!

马来西亚购屋者协会中文组主任陈钟灵则认为,现在在国家经济尚未稳定,投资者购买房屋或投资产业都没有太多保障,不妨多等一等!

他对《理财第一》说,确实目前的房屋价格便宜了,但价格尚未跌至底部,屋价会否再下滑,还要看国家经济的情况,要买屋无须急于一时。

他指出,我国的经济受到国际金融海啸影响会维持几久,至今还是未知数,加上国内一些公司开始裁员、减薪或缩短工作时间,已造成“人心惶惶”,购屋者都要把未来的就业前景考虑在内。

“大家都担心收人会否受影响,相信很多人现阶段都不敢选购屋子或投资产业,毕竟摊供房屋贷款需要很长的时间。”

“人人都希望自己有间屋子,可是大家都自身难保,哪里敢再拿钱出来买屋子或投资产业?”

陈钟灵补充,即使政府最近在迷你财政预算案提供不少的房屋优惠,但也起不了太大作用。

除了避免仓促作决定,他也劝告要买屋者事前须衡量自己的经济能力、工作的前景和进行实地考察。

“若订购了屋子过后却反悔,然后要卖出去是很难脱手的,因为未建竣或正建着的屋子没有要买。”

陈钟灵强调,如果买了屋子却没有能力摊供房屋贷款,不但会被银行充公产业,甚至被法庭宣判入穷籍。

他也提醒要购屋者在房屋展销会选购屋子时,不要仓促作决定,若有意订购须与发展商详谈条件,以免惹上麻烦。

纪华顺:套取现金 赶快替房贷再融资

马来西亚财经规划理事会会长纪华顺说,现在买房地产或许还需要时间观察,但当务之急就是建议哪些已经购屋者,尽快向银行探讨房贷再融资(re-finance)的可能性。

他提醒购屋者,当前全球利率普遍下调,而且已经是大幅度下降,哪些已经过了“惩罚期”(一般为3至5年)的房贷,最好赶快再融资,可以省下不少利息。

他说:“贷款者最好每5年就探讨重组贷款的可能性,因为在我国,房价一般上在5年后或多或少都会上涨,屋价重估对贷款者有利,而且银行利率已经调低,借贷者作贷款重组后可以更有效处理现金流。”

“你的房子增值了,房贷再融资可以增加你的贷款额,过一段时间可能黄金投资机会就会来临,而你如果可以从房贷再融资中,拿到更多现金在手上,你可能有更多投资获利机会。”

纪华顺说,很多人认为,直接用现金购买房子是个好方法,但他却直指这是不智之举,因为向银行贷款买地产就等于让银行去融资,银行房贷最高可到90%,购屋者应善用手上的现金,作其他稳健回酬的投资。

产业因时因地而异 买屋不可忽略4步骤

无论如何,曾福传强调,各地区的产业情况、产业价钱都不同,他今天是概括性的谈产业情况,要买屋者最好多看产业资料作分析才作决定。

曾福传给予要买屋者的劝告是,购屋4步骤一定要跟随:

1. 不要仓促作决定,收集充足的资料作比较;

2. 考量自己的需要或要求,毕竟买产业不比购物;

3. 准确选择屋业发展区,一定要符合自己的需求;

4. 实地考察建屋地点,多征询行家和有经验者意见。

金融海啸理财学 现金为王

【释义】:“现金为王”是近年来相当重要的理财术语,该词多用于提醒现金持有者谨慎投资,守住现金寻找机会。

理财界对“现金为王”的观念看法分歧,有者认为此投资策略应该长期存在,既要有高比例的持有现金,尤其是经济不景时,更应该加大现金的持有。

中庸派则认为每当股市“熊”赳赳,房市正彷徨之际,现金来称王。不过,这“王”绝非天长地久,一旦经济回暖,还是该出手时就出手。

另外一派则大不以为然,认为投资乃长久之计,不应该随市况波动而放弃原有投资去套现。

南洋商报

Four ways to stay debt-free

It's important to avoid being highly indebted as it can leave you financially vulnerable in tough times. Here's how to keep your credit card account in the black.

1) Mind your debt

When it comes to problems in managing debt, your mind may be the first area you need to conquer. Mohamed Akwal Sultan, CEO of the Credit Counselling and Debt Management Agency (AKPK), notes that debt is a psychological problem, whereby some people would resort to spending when they are depressed. Dr Goh Chee Leong, vice-president of Help University College, says the basic principle that explains why people spend without thinking on their credit card is attributable to the desire for instant gratification. “We tend to want short-term pleasure even though it means long-term pain,” he says. “We think, if ‘I pay less now, I’ll have more money and it doesn’t hurt me now’. It’s the same principle as to why people procrastinate — have fun now and suffer later,” explains Goh, who lectures in psychology at Help. Another factor that contributes to mindless spending, notes Goh, is the lack of control over desire. “Some lack the will-power to say no to what they feel they want. So, this is a matter of heart versus head.

Is there an antidote for this? “Focus on your limit,” he advises. “Don’t get distracted and compare yourself with other people. If you want to spend the same amount of money that others are spending, you either have to increase your income or decrease your expenditure. Although it is a cliché, it is important to live within your limit.” The good news is that like many things in life, delaying one’s gratification can be attained through practice. “Discipline is a mental muscle. It’s willpower that makes us do something we don’t feel like doing, such as jogging and saving money,” Goh explains.

2) Know your limits

You can’t control debt if you don’t know what you are spending your money on. In Mohamed Akwal’s opinion, budget is one of the most important tools in financial planning. Tabitha Tan Boon Nie, 25, makes it a point to come up with a budget each month. “I only have one fixed income. If I do not budget, then I might be spending more than my income. This is very dangerous!” Each month, she deducts her monthly fixed debts and expenses such as her housing and car loan instalments as well as her parents’ pocket money from her income. “If you’ve just started working, then, in two to three months’ time, you should have a rough idea of how much you need for meals, petrol and toll. If your expenses are more than the balance, then you’ll have to look at how you can reduce them,” she says.

Ruban Thomas, 30, a senior business development executive, took almost three years to clear his credit-card debt. But the experience has taught him how to manage his personal finances better. He now drafts a monthly personal budget planner, putting together a very basic list of monthly income and expenses. “You can just give it your best guess. Stick to the list of things that you can easily identify, such as rent, car payment, insurance and utilities. As time goes by, you can add more details.” Ruban makes it a point to pay himself a minimum of 20% every month when he gets his pay cheque. Next, he sets aside money for “unavoidable payments” such as car and housing loans, PTPTN (National Higher Education Fund Corp) loan and utility bills. Nelson Ng, a banker, does something similar. “The housing and car loans are my main priorities. I spend what’s left of my income after deducting 20% to 30% for savings,” he says.

3) Keep a tight rein on the ‘extras’

Budgeting helps to identify your regular expenditures, but it doesn’t help if you blow the budget regularly on big items. Ng points out: “You must always remember to not overspend and indulge in impulse purchases, especially during sales.” Credit card issuers tend to give a credit limit that is two to three times higher than one’s earning capacity. This can give you the illusion that you are able to afford a lifestyle that is two or three times beyond your means. Hence, make sure you have the money to pay for each purchase. You could have a little ‘savings accounts’ set aside for treats like travel or large purchases like a handphone. After purchasing the items, use the money to pay the charges in full.

4) Limit temptation

When Ng managed to settle his outstanding debts after around two years, he decided to cancel four of his credit cards to avoid the temptation of overspending. Currently, he only owns two credit cards — one for petrol transactions and the other for daily use. “There is always the temptation to overspend when we have too many cards in our wallet,” he opines. “With a minimal payment of 5%, the monthly payments seem to be small, but the bigger debt is always waiting for us at the bottom of the statement. Clear your credit card debts as fast as possible because every month, there will always be additional bills being credited and your debts will accumulate very fast, with the high interest of 18% per annum.”

Similarly, Tan owns two credit cards and does not intend to apply for more. “The interest rate is way higher than the interest rate your saving account is giving,” she points out. “Furthermore, my credit limits are already over my monthly income. I really wouldn’t want to get into such debt that will take me years to clear.”

This is an excerpt from an article which appeared in Issue 90 (February 2009) of Personal Money, the personal finance magazine published by The Edge Communications Sdn Bhd

Turning to gold

The ancient Egyptians and Romans saw gold as a sign of power and wealth. Today, the metal is just as sought after, as investors jittery about the value of their money switch to gold for its universally accepted appeal.

As governments the world over spend trillions of dollars in stimulus packages to fight recession, economists believe that though inflation may not be just around the corner, it is definitely not that far off.

Already there are worries that the US dollar would collapse and the idea of hyper-inflation taking hold is not that far-fetched. Against such a scenario, gold with its many pluses is back in vogue: it is seen as a safe haven, a hedge against inflation, highly liquid and not tied to any country’s economy.

As more investors take flight to gold to protect their wealth, the price of the commodity has rallied.

Gold spot price on the New York Mercantile Exchange has surged US$77.80 (RM283.97) or 8.8% this year — to US$959.85 an ounce on March 19 from US$882.05 on Dec 31. It hit a 52-week closing high of US$992.90 an ounce on Feb 20 while its 52-week low was US$712.30 on Nov 12, 2008.

While no one knows if the price of gold would continue rising without a break or how high it would go, that it is a hot commodity is indisputable. Thus, analysts say picking up gold on any price weakness now may not be a bad idea. Also, those who invest in gold usually take a long-term view.

Analysts at Citigroup Inc, UBS AG and Morgan Stanley recently raised their target prices for gold.
Gold bars displayed at a bullion merchant Baird & Co in London. With the current global financial crisis investors would rather convert the savings in banks or equities to gold.

Gold bars displayed at a bullion merchant Baird & Co in London. With the current global financial crisis investors would rather convert the savings in banks or equities to gold.



UBS Investment Research, in a March 10 report, raised eyebrows among people seeking long term investments. It is one of the biggest bullion dealers in London and Zurich.

The Swiss research outfit forecasts gold to hit US$2,500 a troy ounce in the next five years as prospects of either deflation or inflation were “becoming more extreme”.

It said the downside was limited to about US$500 an ounce. Gold prices hit a high of US$1,030.80 in March 2008 and last month traded briefly above US$1,000.

Citigroup analysts Alan Heap and Alex Tonks on March 18 raised their gold forecast by 3.8% to an average of US$856 an ounce for this year, from January’s estimate of US$825 an ounce.

The analysts said prices would average US$925 an ounce in 2010, up 2.8% from a previous estimate of US$900 an ounce. While UBS’ prediction may sound too bullish to some, gold does present an investment opportunity for now — particularly over the longer term.

Demand for gold bullion rising
World Gold Council’s (WGS) Far East managing director Albert Cheng said demand for gold bullion in Asia had been on the ascent since last year, and particularly in the last two months.

“Going forward, gold market has very sound fundamental, particularly the increasing investment flow,” he told The Edge Financial Daily in an email reply.

Nonetheless, demand for gold in Asia is not as significant as that in US and Europe, according to Joseph Ng, country manager of MKS Precious Metals Sdn Bhd, which is linked to precious metals and financial services group MKS Finance SA.

MKS is directly involved in the precious metals physical market through its Swiss subsidiary, Produits Artistiques de Métaux Précieux (PAMP SA), which is a gold, silver and platinum group metals refinery based in Castel St Pietro, Switzerland.

It is also involved in all aspects of gold and the processing and trading of other precious metals.

Ng said demand for gold bullion coins had been on the rise in the last five months in the US and Europe.

“People, in general, have lost confidence in the banks, especially with the financial and economic meltdown in US and Europe.

“In these conditions, investors are not willing to park their savings with the banks and would rather convert the savings to gold,” he told The Edge Financial Daily in an interview.

As an indication of the growing demand for gold in the US, published reports showed that the US Mint sold four times as many American Gold Eagle coins in January as it did in the same month a year ago.

“There has been a shift in demand for gold coins from Asia to the Western nations. Demand has gone up so much that our supplies of ingots in Asia have to be channelled to US to meet their demand,” Ng said.

Return to gold standard?
Concern over the value of the US dollar has prompted some parties to call for a return to gold-based currency standard. With a gold standard, participating countries fix the prices of their currencies in terms of a specified amount of gold, and paper notes are freely convertible into gold at the pre-set amount.

On the feasibility of gold standard, WGC’s Cheng said: “I don’t think it is possible, simply because there is too little gold above ground to serve this purpose.”

“At the moment, there are only 165,200 tonnes of gold above ground and half of them are in jewellery form and 12% of them are in industrial usage; it cannot be mobilised. At today’s price, it is (worth) only about US$5 trillion.”

However, he said gold could play its role as a financial asset, and should form part of the future financial architecture.

“For example, if the future financial architecture calls for a more diversified basket of currencies that one country should hold as reserve assets, gold should be in that basket of currencies.

“The last few years of changes in the financial market reconfirm that gold should be considered as an asset class of its own, not as part of the commodity basket, which comprises oil, other base metals and precious metals, as gold behaves differently, for sure,” he noted.

Investment opportunity
For Malaysians who want to buy physical gold, there are a few options apart from buying gold jewellery from the jewellers.

One is the Kijang Emas, Malaysia’s very own gold bullion coins, which are distributed by Malayan Banking Bhd. The Kijang Emas comes in three sizes: one troy ounce, half troy ounce and a quarter troy ounce.

The price of Kijang Emas is quoted daily and pegged to the international gold price. Based on last Thursday’s rates on Maybank’s website, the one troy ounce coin is quoted at RM3,614, half troy ounce at RM1,841 and a quarter-troy ounce at RM938.

(Commodities such as gold, silver, platinum and gemstones are weighed in troy ounces. A troy ounce is exactly 31.1034768 grams.)

Investors could also opt for a gold investment account, offered by Maybank and Public Bank Bhd. Gold is the underlying asset for both banks’ gold investment accounts, but account holders invest in gold without having to hold the metal physically.

According to Public Bank’s website, the initial minimum investment is 20gm, while minimum subsequent purchase or sale is 5gm and must be in multiples of 1gm.

Based on last Thursday’s selling price of RM112.51 per gram, a 20gm initial investment would cost RM2,250.20. For a gold investment account at Maybank, the minimum investment is 5gm with subsequent investment not less than 5gm.

In addition, local unit trust funds that have exposure to gold include AmMutual’s AmPrecious Metals, which invests in a portfolio of global Syariah-observant equity and equity-related securities of companies engaged in activities related to gold, silver, platinum and other precious metals.

As at Dec 31, 2008, the fund invested 82% of its net asset value in gold-related stocks.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 19, 2009.

Know your needs and risk profile

While fund houses and investment banks said the time is right to re-invest in a diversified portfolio after markets have corrected 30% to 60% this year, investors should know their investment objectives and focus on long-term investments.

Knowing their own needs and risk profile was important in looking for a suitable asset allocation strategy, financial advisers said.

For those with excess cash but were not invested, CIMB Wealth Advisors Bhd’s chief executive Tan Beng Wah said without jeopardising their lifestyle, they should take the opportunity to have a diversified portfolio of investments in equities, fixed income and properties.

He said this was because investment valuations were at historical lows.

“They can also buy real estate as an investment. However, if the funds are limited, one may want to consider real estate investment trusts (REITs) or property stocks of funds, depending on what is available,” he added in an email reply to The Edge Financial Daily.

Tan said it was better for individuals with immediate pressing concerns and no cash cushion to keep greater allocations in cash and fixed-income instruments to cover short-term needs rather than investing in equities or other higher-risk assets, and debts should be settled first.

He added that young individuals with a high earning power and disposable income in relation to their lifestyle could stomach higher risks and opt to invest more aggressively now to take advantage of the current market selldown.

“Value averaging is a better strategy under the current market environment. If the individual has an investment time horizon of two years and above, we would suggest to the individual to gradually invest in markets adopting a well diversified asset allocation approach.

“The risk/reward ratio from investing in the markets at this juncture is too attractive to ignore,” Tan said.

Expressing a similar view, HwangDBS Investment Management Bhd (HwangDBS IM) chief investment officer David Ng said while no one could predict when the market would bottom, cost averaging was the better approach compared to lump sum investments as it took much of the emotional aspect out of investing and lowered the investment cost, especially in the equity markets.

“It is oftentimes best to start investing when one feels most uncomfortable with the outlook of the economy. However, we are not advocating investors plough all their savings into the market, but rather, to gradually inch their way into the market whilst it continues to languish at levels that are deemed to be attractive,” Ng said.

He added that it would be wise to exercise prudence in the current environment.

VKA Wealth Planners Sdn Bhd managing director Javern Lim suggested a 30:70 model for its clients, whereby 30% of the investments would be put into aggressive asset classes and the remaining in conservative assets.

“Aggressive assets including stocks, equity mutual fund, such as exposure to Greater China and US financial market-related counters, property (taking advantage of current low BLR rate) that give you chance to benefit from the recovery of the economy in the next few years,” he said.

“Conservative asset classes would involve fixed deposits, bonds, Employee Provident Fund (EPF) scheme, insurance, annuity and money market instruments that would protect your capital.

“Most importantly, it is to provide peace of mind. After all, money is not everything in life. You deserve to enjoy your life,” he added.

Local investors are moving into money market funds (MMF) since the global financial crisis took hold in 2007. Nevertheless, financial planners said MMF, which has a high degree of liquidity, was a short-term parking facility in times of uncertainty while waiting for the next investment strategy and decision.

MMF includes treasury bills, bankers’ acceptances, certificates of deposit, commercial papers and repurchase agreements (Repo).

Lim said MMF was an ideal alternative cash management instrument for corporate investors due to reasons of tax exemption, capital preservation, same-day redemption, liquid underlying investment, no penalty for early redemption, monthly distribution of income as well as higher return compared to fixed deposits.

Financial planners said local investors could grow their wealth by accessing overseas markets through offshore funds launched by financial institutions and fund houses in the country.

Lim said not many local investors would invest directly in overseas equity markets as they lacked the knowledge and related research information.

Nevertheless, Tan said local investors were increasingly aware they could easily invest in overseas markets. While some investors go through private bankers, individuals who invested on their own had the capital capacity, knowledge and access to stockbrokers overseas or opt to invest online.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 19, 2009.

What causes stock prices to move?

Knowing the answer to this will enable you to buy and sell at the right time.

STOCK investing is perhaps the most talked about form of investing. Stocks create hype because they are volatile and sensitive to various factors. With the current economic landscape and dismal performance of bourses worldwide, we can observe that stock prices are affected on a much larger scale than usual. So, if you are wondering what makes stock prices go up or down, read on to find out.

Knowing the answer to this will enable you to buy and sell at the right time. Unfortunately, there is no one definite answer to this simple question. Various factors influence stock price movements. However, certain primary factors have a major impact on the movement and as an investor, you need to pay attention to these factors as guidance in making the right call to "buy" or "sell".

Demand and Supply

This golden rule of economics holds true even when it comes to the stock market. When demand for stocks is greater than supply, stock prices will go up. This happens when everyone starts to chase after stocks but only very few are willing to sell. This in turn, pushes the prices of stocks up further. On the flip side, when supply is greater than demand, everyone rushes to sell off their stocks, but only a few buyers are interested. This results in stock prices being depressed.

Bearing this in mind, you then need to know what causes the demand or supply to go up or down.

* Economic situation

* Economic situation Stock market performance is actually a leading indicator of our economic situation. This means that the stock market will reflect the market expectations of our economy a few months down the line. As such, if the market expects the economy to boom, you will start to see stock prices increasing much earlier than the actual boom and the opposite applies when recession hits. Bearing this in mind, as investors, you need to be sensitive to signs that provide any form of indication on the future direction of the economy.

For example, when inflation rate creeps up; there is a possibility that the interest rate will go up as well to help cool the economy. The stock market in turn, will react negatively given such an expectation. On the other hand, when the economy is at the bottom of its cycle and the interest rate is lowered to stimulate economic activity, you will see that stock market will react positively to it. This positive reaction is attributed to the expectation that the economy is on the road to recovery.

* Company performance

* Company performanceLogically, the stock price of a company should go up if its financial performance is good, and vice versa. However, you will notice that most of the time, when the financial results are announced, as long as they reflect analysts' expectations, regardless of whether the reports bear good or bad news, stock prices will usually not show much movement. It is only when the results come as a surprise to the market that you will see a blip in the price. Basically, this is because the existing stock prices already reflect the current market expectation. This tells you that you need to pay attention to the company's business fundamentals, as this is the critical factor that is going to influence the company's stock price in the long run. As an investor, you should be mindful of the company's business direction and projects that it is involved in, that have the potential of bringing growth to the business. You have keep a watchful eye on its financial performance and management's strength, in order to make a good investment decision.

* Market rumours

* Market rumoursThis is a major contributor to the stock market's short term volatility. There is a famous saying in the stock market, 'buy on rumours, sell on facts'. Investors tend to over-react or react hastily to the slightest market rumours. Often times, they will panic and rush to sell on negative rumours, resulting in the drop of the stock price. Investors could take the opportunity to buy at that particular time if they know that the company is fundamentally strong and the likelihood of the negative rumours being accurate is low; or the situation is not as bad as it is made out to be. By carefully scrutinising market rumours, you are able to make sound investment decisions instead of just following the crowd, that could lead to dire consequences.

* Political instability

* Political instabilityNaturally, if a country is experiencing political unrest, the stock market will inevitably have to deal with some setbacks. In cases of instability, foreign investors react by pulling out their funds which may trigger panic selling from all parties. You will need to assess whether the unrest is just a short-term event or carries with it a longer lasting impact. This is crucial in assessing your risk should you choose to continue holding on to your position, as opposed to taking quick action to leave the market.

The above are only a few major drivers that will cause the stock prices to move. However, most of the time, the investor psychology effect of over reacting makes market movement more prominent than it should be. One of Benjamin Graham's investing principles encourages us to look at market fluctuations as our friend rather than our enemy, as market movements sometime create buying opportunities for true investors. Therefore, as an informed and knowledgeable investor, avoid getting into "panic mode". Always remember, understand and evaluate the situation by using your own judgement to ensure that you make intelligent investment decisions.


This article was written by Securities Industry Development Corporation to educate investors on smart investing. The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be used as a substitute for legal or other professional advice.

Securities Industry Development Corporation, the leading capital markets education, training and information resource provider in Asean, is the training and development arm of the Securities Commission, Malaysia. It was established in 1994 and incorporated in 2007.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

健康樂活:不要高血壓不要腎臟病‧拼健康靠自己!

你有血壓高?有腎臟病?或許你可以把責任推給遺傳因子,因為家族歷史的確是病因之一,但請別把責任完全賴掉,因為家族歷史只是提高你患病的機率,是不是要患病,或是幾歲患病,還是看自己。

腎臟調控血壓

沙登醫院腎臟專科主治醫生吳墨龍強調,所有人,包括已經患有腎臟病、高血壓及糖尿病的人都可以選擇:要維持自己的不良習慣導致生病或病情加重?還是努力打拚使自己比較健康!

他說,高血壓與腎臟的關係非常密切,高血壓病患如果沒有好好控制血壓,可損壞腎臟;另一方面,腎臟病也會引起高血壓,使病情變得更嚴重。

“血壓是血液對全身動脈壁推擠的力量,並由腎臟調控。腎臟從血液中排除多餘的鹽和流體以降低高血壓,同時也保留鹽和水份,以提高低血壓。

“對原發性高血壓患者(即無法確認起因的高血壓),長期的高血壓可能損壞腎臟內的血管和過濾器,這將影響腎臟從體內排除廢物的功能。

“而對續發性高血壓患者來說,具體的原因是腎臟有問題。這類高血壓(腎性高血壓)的主要起因是腎動脈硬化,減少對腎臟的供血(即腎動脈血管壁內的脂肪和膽固醇堵塞)而造成。

“血流銳減時,腎臟的和腎上腺將產生某些激素以提高血壓。當年輕人或老年人被發現患上高血壓,通常都會被懷疑是患上腎性高血壓。”

不改變生活習慣
病情會加重

吳墨龍說,許多人以為,沒有症狀就代表病情並不嚴重,所以大部份人在得知自己患上血壓高時,只按時吃藥,以為就會沒事。

“這些對自己身體沒有警覺性的人士,通常連自己吃的藥甚麼名稱,是何形狀都不甚瞭解。對他們來說,吃藥只是例行公事,所以這類人通常不會改變生活習慣,而如果繼續不運動及大吃大喝的話,即使是吃藥,也會讓病情加重。”

他說,長期高血壓的人,身體血管硬化得比較快,並且會造成非常嚴重的健康問題。

“如果病患硬化的血管在腦部,就容易引發腦中風;如果硬化的是心臟血管,就會心臟病發;如果影響的是腎臟血管,則會造成腎臟衰竭……並以此類推。”

他指出,高血壓是末期腎臟病最普遍的因素。而生活及飲食習慣,則是與高血壓及糖尿病息息相關,所以太甜太鹹、煙酒及不運動,都是疾病的由來。

養成常測量血壓習慣

“要及早知道自己的血壓出問題,就要養成所有成年人都要經常測量血壓的習慣。”

“普通人白天的平均血壓應該在135/85mmHg以下,如果超過,可能就需要接受治療。”

“有糖尿病或腎臟病的人如果血壓超出130/80mmHg,就應該接受治療;另外,高血壓兼腎臟病患的血壓,要長期處於130/80mmHg以下,才算受控制。”

“如果是更嚴重的病患(即尿液裡含蛋白質超過1克),血壓則需低於125/75mmHg,才算是受到控制。”

“如果只是血壓高患者,血壓即使到了140/80mmHg,還是算可以接受。”

每天測量更有效控制血壓

吳墨龍說,如果可以的話,高血壓病患最好買一架血壓測量器,每天讀取血壓數字,以便更有效地控制血壓。

“有人說,電子測量器的數字比較‘不準確’,所以不足以取信,可是,它的準確度雖然不及醫生專用的測量器,但卻有它的好處。”

“病人如果願意買測量器,就表示他關心自己的病,願意每天瞭解病情,而不只是把病交給醫生就算數,這種在乎的態度非常重要。”

“要知道,沒有一個人的血壓數字會長期維持在一個水平,因為人的情緒會波動,平靜、緊張、害怕和興奮,都會影響血壓數字,運動後血壓也不同。”

“病患在家自己測量血壓,普遍上會比醫生測量的低一些,這不是因為測量器的問題,而是病患自己在家輕鬆地測量,自然不會那麼緊張。”

高血壓病患應定期檢查腎臟

他補充說,患有高血壓的人也應該定期檢查腎臟功能。

“簡單的尿液檢查可以查出尿液是否含蛋白質。如果被懷疑患上腎臟病,將會進行某些實驗室檢驗,以證實腎臟是否正常地操作,或有否損壞。”

糖尿病高血壓
腎臟病大敵

你是否知道,全世界有超過5億,或10%的成年人是腎臟病患?還有,每年有數百萬人死於與慢性腎臟病有關的心臟病和中風。

馬來西亞腎臟基金會經理委員會主席基爾醫生指出,公眾必須對任何危害腎臟的疾病,尤其是慢性腎臟病加以警惕;因為不能良好控制糖尿病與高血壓的人數不斷增加,是兩個導致腎臟損壞的最大因素。

“此外,吸煙、肥胖、年長和家族病歷,也是須注意的重要因素。”

他說,當患上腎臟病未能及時治療,日久可導致腎衰竭,如果腎臟完全損壞,性命受到威脅,病患需進行腎臟移植或血液透析(俗稱洗腎)來維持生命。

洗腎病患每年增7%

目前全馬有超過1萬8000名大馬人在接受透析治療,預測到了2010年,人數將增加到兩萬名。全世界的洗腎病患大約每年增長7%。

另外,全世界有1.5億人患上高血壓。2006年,估計30歲以上的大馬人,有42.6%患高血壓,而所有接受治療的病患中,僅有26%的病情受到良好控制。

除了糖尿病,高血壓是導致末期腎衰竭的第二個重要起因。對於患上高血壓和腎臟病的人來說,最重要的措施是控制血壓,不能良好控制血壓,將加重他們的腎臟衰竭速度。

如何預防腎臟病?

● 健康的成年人,每年做一次健康檢測
● 控制血壓、血糖及膽固醇
● 停止抽煙
● 實行健康的生活習慣
● 避免食用止痛藥物
● 飲用大量的水
● 如果已患上糖尿病或高血壓,需有效的控制病情

馬來西亞腎臟基金會熱線:1300-88-3110、瀏覽網站:http://www.nkf.org.my、電郵聯絡:edu@nkf.org.my。

腎臟的功能
● 每天過濾並清理200升的血液
● 製造血球
● 控制血壓
● 清除血液中危險的廢物

腎臟衰竭時有何症狀?
● 身體和雙腳浮腫
● 血壓升高
● 感覺骨骼疼痛,經常面對骨折問題
● 臉色變得蒼白

檢診腎臟病初期徵兆:
● 檢查尿液中出現的蛋白質和驗血
● 檢查血壓
● 檢查腎臟功能、血糖和膽固醇水平

誰需要進行腎臟檢診?
● 糖尿病患
● 高血壓病患
● 腎結石病患
● 尿中含血漬
● 紅斑狼瘡病患
● 經常服用止痛藥
● 家族成員有患腎臟病
● 肥胖
● 心臟病患

與高血壓有關的腎臟病症狀:
● 尿量減少
● 排尿困難
● 更加頻繁地排尿(特別是在晚上)
● 因水分保留而腳腫(水腫)

患上血壓高初期應該怎麼做?
● 調整飲食習慣
1. 不吃太鹹
2. 不吃太多(吃到不餓即停止)
3. 多吃蔬果
● 運動及減重
1. 持之以恆
2. 足夠時間(每次運動25-30分鐘)
3. 不能停止超過48小時(即至少隔天運動一次)
4. 運動過後不得大吃大喝或吃宵夜
5. 儘量走路,以消耗更多卡路里
● 避免或限制喝酒量
● 戒煙
● 學習處理壓力

星洲日報

認清借貸陷阱‧避開卡債深淵

面對經濟逆境,用錢要小心謹慎,不必要的貸款利息開支實在可免則免。《聰明借來創富錢》一書剖析借貸陷阱,讓讀者學懂如果避開卡債深淵。

《聰明借來創富錢》作者指出,不少人申請信用卡時,只著眼於禮品,其實選擇信用卡亦需留意信貸額、利率、還款期、年費、其他費用以及還款次序。

大部份卡主只會在拖欠卡數之後,才開始關心信用卡的費用。

作者認為,最理想的做法,是在未有欠款前便查問清楚,瞭解信用卡的財務費用遲交費用、超過信貸額的費用等等。

還款次序不能忽視

信用卡的還款次序亦不可忽視:卡主應瞭解所償還的貸款,先用於支付哪些開支。

舉例來說,有銀行會把還款先用於償還法律收費及開支,然後付利息,餘下的才用來償還最低還款額、現金透支及購物的本金。

由於利息是按本金計算,而未償還的利息又會計入本金內,故卡主應留意信用卡的還款次序。

作者指信用利率奇高,而且會隨時增加,因此信用卡並不是很好的借貸工具。

拖欠卡數利息高昂

另外,很多人未必知道,如果有卡數拖欠,信用卡的新簽賬會連同之前的欠款一併被計算利息。

假如你欠下$2000卡數,付了$50最低還款額後,餘下的欠款為$1,950。如果你再有$1,000的新簽賬,這$1000新簽賬就會與舊有的$1950一同被計算利息。換言之,於拖欠卡數之後,所有新簽帳都不會有任何免息期。

透支收費項目繁多信用卡透支收費項目繁多,無論是身在香港還是海外,都會被視為透支,卡主須繳付透支金額3%作為手續費,部份銀行更設有$50最低手續費。即透支$1000的話,所需繳付的手續費是$50,而不是$30。如果以信用卡於海外提取外幣,除上述手續費外,卡主更會被銀行額外收取相當於提款額約1%至12%的手續費。

星洲日報/投資致富

嚴守十大規條‧克服投資心魔

2009-03-09 14:55

只要你曾沾手股票,或是作為打工仔的一份子(公積金),總要作出投資,亦總有機會面對投資失利的情況。

作為銀聯信託投資總監的林一鳴,不諱言自己曾經歷蝕錢之時,也因而建立起兩項投資法則:一、要設定停賽機制,在蝕至一定限額時,強迫自己離場冷靜;二、用筆記簿記下每次交易情況,作出事後檢討。他更提出“十大投資規條”,到底可否成為熊市明燈,為你帶來一點啟示?

所有曾參與投資的人,想必也曾面對投資失利的事實,不過在面對股市逆境時,每個投資者也可能有不同的做法。

到底你是愈買愈多,不肯止蝕,最終損手爛腳才捨得離場?還是“一朝被蛇咬,十年怕草結”,不肯再沾手?

但凡曾投資的人,或多或少都會同意股場的魅力實在難以抗拒,選取前者的比例確實較多。

林一鳴不諱言自己曾經歷蝕錢之時,甚至一度不太理性。但他沒有因此而意志消沉,反而悟出道逆市規條,“人人都知道定下止蝕位很重要,但人往往就是因為不肯認輸,希望會贏回來(而沒有遵守)。

所以要為自己定下規矩,定下一個停賽機制,例如,在蝕了某個金額,便罰自己停止買賣一週,再蝕多些到了另一個金額,便停止買賣長些時間。

其實這是為了給時間自己過一過冷河,因為愈輸錢也愈想贏,亦好易犯錯。”這實在是知易行難,但卻是有效讓自己冷靜之法。

即使你不完全做到,最少也該用電腦定下自動止蝕,避免舉棋不定,遲遲不肯壯士斷臂。

勿跟得太貼
免自亂職腳

在逆市下,林一鳴更提出幾點投資法門,讓投資者參考。

第一,短炒輸錢的機會大增,“經驗所得,短炒的投資者,有七至八成都是蝕錢,所以transaction(交易)次數愈少愈好。”第二,“愈少看著價位,愈少看大市反而愈好。因為過多的資訊,會令你思考混亂,亦好易令你成日去追價位。”

另外,他還有一個“獨門秘技”,其實也不是甚麼難事或需要高超的分析技巧才可,但卻需要多一點點的堅持,他說“要成功,就要從失敗中汲取教訓,因此我每次交易都會keep record(記錄下來),事前準備一本小筆記,記下所有交易資料,以便之後作出檢討。”

勤力一向是成功的不二法門,作為投資總監也要勤力、一般投資者也更需要。

特別身處熊市之時,不少散戶心理也會隨大市上上落落,經常顯得忐忑不安。

到底我們要成為成功的投資,該具備甚麼條件?林一鳴笑著承認,的確有不少性格優點或缺點是天生的,我們唯有在後期慢慢改善,“有高EQ(情緒智商)當然很重要,這樣的人才不會被股市價格升跌而影響,在做決定時亦較冷靜。”

第二,要客觀分析,試試抽離分析自己的狀況,可能會有更明智的選擇。

留八成現金不買衍生工具

在動盪的市況,不少股壇名人高談Cash is king(現金是王),認為現階段保留現金最重要,林最後亦不忘提出近似的小建議。

他說:“在現在的市況,從資本中取兩、三成作投資已足夠,並且要分散風險,另外也不做槓桿(相關的投資),即是不要買牛熊證或窩輪等,蝕錢始終有限,因為實在不知熊市還有多長,還是等待牛市重來(才大舉投資)。”

林一鳴十大投資規條

1.不要相信你能預測未來,因為根本沒有投資工具可以百分百準確預測未來市況。

2.不要高佔財經演員的分析能力,其實一些大行的專業研員究人員頂多只能跟蹤30隻股票,但市場卻有千多隻股票,又怎會隻隻也熟悉?

3.不要把昨天的走勢,當作是朋友的走勢。今日的消息出現,其實昨天的股價已反映出來。

4.順勢而行,要確認升勢才可買入,縱使賺得較少,但蝕錢的風險也降低。

5不要以為自己可以摸頂或模底,“寧買當頭起莫買當頭跌”,在股市踏入下跌軌中途購入股票,成功摸底的機會可說是非常渺茫。

6.不要經常看股價,看得愈多,出錯機會也愈多。

7.若經常輸錢的話,講讓自己暫時停賽,冷靜一下。

8.嚴守止蝕位,記住放在心裡的止蝕位,是永遠行不通的,還是靠電腦均可指令吧!

9.除非有職業上的需要,否則不要對別人作出投資建議,更不要告訴別人你買了甚麼股票,避免無形的面子壓力影響你的決定。

10.若你發現自一天24小時都只想著股票,可能已有精神病,請暫時離開或看看心理醫生。

星洲日報/投資致富

布局債券待翻紅

“零利率”時代來臨,大馬也難以置身事外。

基於大馬利率仍有調降空間,在降息風下,是否意味投資者宜趁機佈局有機會“翻紅”的債券以暫避風險,才能看得見“錢”景?

隨著通膨率料在2009年進一步走疲至3.5-4%水平,大馬投資預計,國行將持續追隨全球“降息潮”,以刺激經濟成長,並正面惠及本地債券市場。

大馬投資資金管理部門固定收益首席投資員彭慶萍指出,經濟衰退、原油與原產品價格節節敗退,通膨不再是威脅,各國將繼續放寬貨幣政策,並減少利率,進而惠及固定收益市場,尤其政府債券、半官方證券與債券。

大馬投資預計,投資上述證券的全球債券基金將從中受惠,特別是那些對出口依賴小、具備外匯儲備緩衝與充足財政盈餘,以刺激經濟市政投資的國家。

由於經濟疲弱,她認為,投資者可望自涉足政府債券的固定收益基金中受惠,例如美國、英國與德國的長期國債。

“這些國家的衰退大勢可能導致進一步減息的必要性,並惠及政府債券市場。”

儘管如此,鑒於美國次貸危機的陰影未退,她強調,投資者應具備策略性投資的理念,並對涉足投機債券和槓桿結構債券的基金保持謹慎。

保守型投資者

投資債券基金,胥需視個人的風險承受度與投資期限而定。“對於保守者,貨幣市場基金將是等待經濟恢復元氣前的現金‘停泊站‘;可在中期內承受投資波動者,債券基金無疑是當前低通膨、低經濟成長與進一步降息的‘碼頭‘。”

高風險承受者

針對可承受高風險的投資者,她指出,新興市場債券頗具吸引力,尤其涉及如巴西、墨西哥、菲律賓和南非國家政府的債券,因為這些國家最近的財政整頓在刺激經濟的市政投資上具彈性。

根據過去經驗,全球經濟衰退期間,債券的表現空間確實比股票大,惟投資也要“押對寶”,並非所有債券都會齊揚,因為股市波動大、資金流動快速,同樣影響匯率波動,也成為債市投資的最大風險之一。因此,投資人想要進入債券市場,仍需停看聽,作足功課,知道自己購買商品的實質內容,才能真正達到避險的目的。

雷曼陰影太深

在此次金融風暴中,向來被稱為安全與穩定投資工具的部份基金已辜負了投資者,如在美國歷史最悠久的貨幣市場基金(Reserve Primary Fund),因投資雷曼債券而“大失血”,隨雷曼宣佈破產,此基金亦無法履行債券的義務,更跌破面值。

彭慶萍指出,投資者一般上會因“一棵樹打沉整座森林”,認為美國貨幣基金市場“告急”,其他國家的貨幣基金市場也將步入美國後塵。

“事實上,美國與大馬貨幣基金市場的投資結構不同,高達60%的美國貨幣市場基金投資在商業票據,並顯著暴露於金融、貸款與房貸中,惟大馬卻沒出現這種情況。”

她解釋,典型的貨幣市場基金因投資在安全的公債而產生更高回酬,而商業票據一般上為安全的投資產品,惟問題出在Reserve Primary Fund大量投資雷曼兄弟。

她披露,大馬商業票據市場的86億5000萬令吉總值僅代表國內債券市場資本的1.4%,比較美國為4.4%,在商業票據對比全球債券較小的市場資本下,大馬商業票據市場的風險相對低,同時不太可能觸發任何流動資金的危機。

“另一潛在因素為大馬約80至90%的商業票據與銀行承銷的一些商業票據相互循環(到期後將續約),相反的,美國的商業票據並不受銀行承銷。”

彭慶萍強調,最重要的一點是為維持大馬金融系統的穩定性,政府已採取有效開放的措施,以保障銀行系統下的所有存款至2010年,此舉應推動市場的信心,以及減輕投資者對貨幣市場基金的疑慮。

“上述因素皆說明大馬貨幣基金市場的優勢,也降低了像美國般出現流動性危機的風險,只是悲觀的投資情緒導致大馬資金市場的表現黯然失色。”

貨幣市場基金
短期投資風險低

利率跌跌不休的年代,投資者是否應在存款外尋找“春天”?

彭慶萍直言不諱,熊氣瀰漫的市場仍有進攻的機會,與其守著“廢墟”,不如趁當前波動的經濟局勢,尋求貨幣市場基金的“庇護”,以取得更可觀的回酬。

貨幣市場基金為投資於貨幣市場上短期有價證券的一種基金,此基金資產主要投資於短期貨幣工具,包括銀行與政府、企業債券,如銀行承兌匯票、商業票據、重購協議、可商議存款證書、國庫債券、現金與其他貨幣工具。

彭慶萍指出,這些基金屬於低風險的短期投資工具,且流動性高,適合有意尋求一般和缺乏波動的收入,同時經常成為投資者在作未來投資決策前的短期現金“避風港”,以達到穩定賺取利息收入及避險之雙重目的。

“貨幣市場基金為活力無限的投資工具,為投資者在等待下一‘波浪’前打開另一扇窗,同時讓投資者在未來重返市場前,仍能保持資金靈活性。”

她直言,在目前“水深火熱”的經濟動盪中,其實投資在貨幣市場基金的風險與定期存款相似,而關鍵是貨幣市場基金提供更高的回酬,同時收益免稅。

“投資者若對債券感到怯步,可藉投資貨幣市場基金來分散投資風險,畢竟此基金的波動不及債券。”

“買得好,不如買得穩”由於每個基金的目標不一,投資人在挑選貨幣市場基金時,不妨以基金規模、目的、信評評等及安全資產品質等作為評估指標。

星洲日報/投資致富

投資房地產‧立不敗之地

在資金市場低迷、產業市場偏淡之際,我們應該持有甚麼樣的資產,才能既安全又有增值性?

最佳的答案是不要因時間越長、損壞性越大的商品;換句話說,凡是可以大量製造的商品或是儲存愈久,愈容易變質或損壞的商品,都缺乏保值與增值的價值,在這種條件下,只有黃金、白銀、房地產才可能是不錯的選擇。

對於持有黃金、白銀而言,由於是“貨幣”的替代品,很容易成為政府貨幣政策下的犧牲者,尤其是在高通貨膨脹的年代,政府為了控制貨幣,目標通常轉向持有黃金、白銀者。

展望未來幾年,各國政府普遍將採取低利率剌激經濟的政策,勢必增加通貨膨脹的壓力,各國政府為了控制貨幣,自然對金銀持有者不利。

相對地,房地產持有者就沒有類似的壓力,在高通貨膨脹的環境裡,只有房地產具有免疫的特性,因為房地產不但不是貨幣的替代品,反而是與人民基本需求相關聯的商品,因此,政府頂多會採取管制租金的手法,以避免投資壟斷,剝削經濟弱勢的一群。

這其實反映了持有房地產的優點,在持有過程中還會有租金收入,這是所有其他資產難以相比的,至於投機壟斷情形,只會發生在房屋供不應求的地區。

2008年是多變的一年,單單金融市場的風暴,就足以讓我們坐立不安,世界5大投資銀行一夜之間崩盤,多國主要銀行瀕臨倒閉,必須由政府出面拯救或入主,幾乎成為國有銀行。

大家關心的經濟也是百孔千瘡,世界經濟由盛轉衰,蕭條的恐慌幾乎襲擊全世界,股市持續下跌,為了振興經濟,大幅的降息減稅政策成為主流,如此重大的巨變,2009年是否成為財富重新分配的一年,是危還是機?投資者要如何購屋取勝,以下有幾個可以參考的方法。

現金未必永遠稱王

投資房地產,要投資自已熟悉的領域,全世界最強的貨幣“美元”,目前存在二大危機:第一個危機是美元並非由美國政府發行,而是由一間“美國聯邦儲備銀行體系”所發行,在缺乏足夠擔保品(除了少數美國政府債券)下,大量發行美元,使得美元的發行數量,早已失控,貨幣危機一觸即發。

第二個危機是美國政府負債相當大(至2006年,已經超過44兆美元,其中聯邦政府接近9兆美元,每年支付利息即高達2.2兆美元),這些“負債”正由全世界人民承擔,為了償還這項數量巨大的負債,最溫和的方法是不斷地透過通貨膨脹(每年至少3至 4%)貶值;較為劇烈的方法就是讓美元計價的商品漲價,同時強迫商品國購買美國債券,以增加世界各國對美元的需求。

不論上述那一種方法,對於持有貨幣者而言,都不是一個好消息!尤其是為了控制金融海嘯,世界各國都在爭相加印鈔票,不斷地增加政府負債,再加上世界各國為了剌激經濟,都會採取不斷降息的政策;這種現象必然會導致所有的貨幣持有者,同時面臨一方面利息愈來愈低,另一方面貶值的壓力與日俱增的不利情況。

在這種情況下,雖然還有許多投資專家不斷提出“現金是王”的見解,但以投資的角度而言,持有資產顯然較持有貨幣(特別是美元)要有利得多。

最低風險的投資

我們可以發現持有“資產”顯然優於“貨幣”,而持有房地產又優於金銀。

環球屋業發展有限公司法律顧問林若輝律師說,如果能力允許,購買好地區、好品質的房地產勢必會成為2009年的贏家。

尤其重要的是,對於大多數的投資者而言,金融風暴後,投資自己所熟悉的領域,已成為投資主流思維,而投資最熟悉的房屋,自然是最重要也是最低風險的投資!

抱緊有現金流的資產

全世界精明的金融家,所設計的任何金融商品,都必須基於未來要有穩定的收益,例如:政府債券是以未來(無數年)人民的稅收為擔保、海關債券是以未來海關稅收為擔保、美國兩房債券是以未來貸款戶繳交的貸款利息為擔保、人壽保險債券是以未來壽險保戶所繳的保險費為擔保、如果缺乏長期穩定的收益能力(現金流),任何商品都不容易被市場接受。

建立長期穩定收益

友聯產業經紀公司經理包久武說,就投資的角度而言,如果不迅速將其投資轉換成具有長期穩定收益的不動產,對於資產的價值是有害無利的!

因此,如何掌握到一個長期、穩定,並能使人們相信的現金流資產,顯得尤其重要。

在2008年各種資產價格極度振盪的時候,仍有財團大手筆的購買經營良好或是出租率理想的辦公大樓,就是在反映這種現象。

因此,在面對未來幾年可能會有的環境變化,應該儘快將手中的資產快速出租,儘可能取得長期的租約,以建立資產的最大價值。

要知道市場如果不景氣,利率一定會降,而利率如果降,具有固定租金收入的資產,其價格就有可能會上漲!

為了振興經濟,全世界的政府會不斷地降低利率,這種趨勢對具有長期穩定收益的資產有利。

未來資產價格增值
必遠大於低租金損失

因此,快速的將所擁有的資產,建立長期穩定的租金收入是極為重要的工作,要記得只要有租金,即使低一些也不妨,因為未來資產價格的增值將會遠大於租金的損失。

“有夢最美”,對於新資產的購買也要注意這種原則,在政經環境不明朗的形勢中,所有美夢要成真的可能性都會大幅降低,所以不要被“美夢”所幹擾,要務實一些,最好是購買已有長期租約的資產!

不過,具有長期租約的資產,其業主為何要出售?一個原因是信心不足,擔心資產跌價;另一個則是其他投資吃緊,必須拋售產業套現,這兩種情況都有利於買家,此時,通常可以用較好的價格買到資產。

租金比地產價格重要

實力產業經紀公司的陳建業表示,許多時候“租金比價格重要”,許多外行的投資者,往往會誤認為買到便宜的價格就是有賺,這是較不明智的投資行為。

在政經環境不穩定的時期,投資前要先看租金、而非價格,許多外國投資機構常說要買“優質型股票”,所謂優質,就投資而言,其實就是指具有長期穩定的收益(租金或股息收入)。

就投資的角度而言,如果不迅速將店面轉換成具有長期穩定收益的不動產,對於資產的價值是有害無利的!市場上的投資資金勢必流向具有長期與穩定收入的資產,而收益型房地產就具備了這種特性,誰能越快將自己的資產變為收益型,誰就會是這波財富重新分配的贏家。

大家要緊記的是,具有長期穩定收益的房地產,其區位條件都不會太差,除非要自用,千萬不要去購買價格便宜、但不容易爭取長期穩定租金收入的房地產!

我們有不少親友、同事購買了地點欠佳的產業,不論是房屋或店屋,如今欲出租沒有租客,欲出售也沒有買家問津,只能每月償付銀行的分期貸款,有苦自己知。

自住房屋未必要最好

許多投資者在擁有一個或以上的房屋單位時,總是將新購買的出租,而自己仍住在最熟悉、或是最好的房產裡。

就投資的角度而言,其實是不大正確!應該將舊的、已經屬於成熟地區的房屋出租,而將新購的房屋自住。其主要原因有3:

1.能夠有較高租金的房屋,一定是在人氣較旺的地方,通常人們最熟悉的房屋,其社區居民的入住率通常比較高,房產也較成熟,各種環境(如交通、水電設備、管理模式等)多已成熟,所以較能爭取好的租金。

2.許多新建好的房屋或社區,可能還有一些基本設施未完成,或還不夠完善,需要一些跟進的後續工作,至少需要1至2年的時間,才能“成熟”起來,在這段時間裡,如果將房屋出租,可能會給租客造成不便,影響租客的滿意度與租金水平。

相反地,如果自己住在新區內,反而可掌握所有問題並可以迅速解決,使自己的投資商品(房屋)可以不斷改善,不斷增加價值,在變動的環境中,需要努力爭取租客,所以只有將自己較好、較沒有瑕疵的房地產出租,才較有競爭力,也才能爭取到最好的租客和敲定較好的承租條約。

3. 搬家的成本可能會越來越高,從吸引租客的角度來看,附有家具的出租單位吸引力較高,而最適合的家具,往往是舊屋中的廚具、冰箱、電視、沙發、餐桌、桌椅和床,這些家具搬到新家價值有限,可是放在舊屋,不但可以大幅增加“租約”的條件,又可因設備齊全而租到好價錢,會是雙贏策略。

維護舊屋長期獲利

對於房屋維護的觀念也將在這一波經濟蕭條中成為投資的主流,以往本地房地產投資者對於房地產的維護觀念不強,房屋除非到了非維修不可時,才會不得已維修。

相對歐美的屋主,他們會定期1、2年維修房屋一次,看起來花了些小錢,但每一幢房屋,都可以維持百年以上,成為不斷有收入的產業。

房屋維護的越好,租相就越好,租金就會更高,房價自然居高不下,投資報酬率就會更大。

我們在一間房屋“居住”(使用)本身就是一種投資行為!維修良好的舊屋一定會比新屋價值高,以往只靠買賣“新屋”賺錢的投資獲利型態,必須快速調整為以維護良好的“舊屋”、賺取長期利益的正確投資獲利型態。

儘可能減少貸款額

銀行家總希望讓人們認為,商品泡沫化的主因是資金寬鬆,因此,為緊縮銀根創造了一個“造反有理”的理論依據,他們會不斷地緊縮銀根,不論所持有的理由是本身資金不足、資產價值縮水,或是借方信用不佳,收縮銀根已成為2009年全球銀行的普遍共識!

當銀根被抽時,再好的賺錢機會都可能“看得到卻吃不到”,往往在投資的半路上就被腰斬,而這並不違背銀行家們的期望,因為有擔保的資產被腰斬,就會出現廉價取得的機會,他們又可透過購買不良資產或債權賺一筆。

投資者面對這樣的經營策略,投資風險自然大幅增加,要避免受到這類策略的拖累,最好的方法就是減少融資,儘可能減少向銀行(尤其是私人銀行)借貸。

價格波動後會回升

唯一的好消息是,當許多市場以廉價取得資產後,若沒有恢復市場價格,他們也無法獲利,換句話說,房地產如有任何價格的波動,只要時間夠長,一定會回升!

因此,精明的投資者一定要保護自己的投資目標,不要受到市場價格在短期內被破壞的波及。

高額的借款是投資獲利的最大風險之一,所以在目前金融環境還在劇烈變動的時候,迅速降低融資金額是極重要的工作。

具體作法是:如果是現有投資,可以透過與親友合作,分享投資利益,並降低自己持股比例,以減少借款數量;對於新的投資,儘可能不要“單打獨鬥”,要和親友合作,以共同集資的方法,儘可能降低借款,並將計劃獲利的時間拉長,就可以減低風險。

在金融環境趨向緊縮之時,用融資、借款投資,就是一種風險極大的冒險,如果無法用集資湊到足夠的錢,最好不要冒然投資。

結語

“外行看熱鬧,內行看門道”,每個人都不喜歡環境有大的變化,但如果環境沒有變化,每一個人就沒有向M型社會另一端移動的機會。

每一次的環境巨變,都使許多墨守成規的人賠了錢,但也有許多勇於改變的人,改善了自己的經濟環境。

2009年是一個環境變化巨大的時代,也是可以改善自己經濟環境的最佳時機。

大家一定要瞭解,經濟衰退了一定會再復甦,股市下跌了一定會再回升,利率低久了一定也會升高,這是必然的環境變化。

問題是:在這些必然的變化裡,我們是否能夠掌握正確方向?掌握到了,就可能“御風而起”;掌握不到,就可能“每況愈下”!

在大多數人都在擔心環境變化的時候,快速掌握正確的方向,正是可以“御風而起”改變一生的時候,為何不快些行動?

星洲日報/投資致富

生活省錢十招渡危機

全球經濟不景氣,你拿甚麼過?其實生活就在你身邊,可以從我們生活的一點一滴做起,才是正道。

1、回家吃飯——回家做飯是好男人的新標準。既可減少婚外情,又可減少零用錢。中午還是帶飯吧。

2、只看電視——好處是可以享受天倫之樂,壞處是未必看到你想看的台。也可以看DVD甚麼的,回顧過去自己收藏的經典大片也不錯!

3、不去刷卡——銀行記得你月底欠賬,但你卻忘記了。多用現金可以增長記憶力。記住了,就是用的時候,也不要跨行了!

4、全家公用——全家用一個牌子洗髮水的目的只有一個:家庭裝更便宜。

5、善於網購——沒有網絡買不到的打折貨,就怕買來的貨質量打了折。購家裡那口子的服裝建議到菲薩塔啦,孩子嘛,唯亦更適合您!

6、寄錢父母——父母是最好的銀行。往年“銀行”寄錢給你,今年寄錢給“銀行”。父母,還怕甚麼?

7、暫不辭職——不轉工,不轉行,不創業;不怕兼職,就怕辭職。加強內功,搞好自己是出路。

8、自己動手——DIY傢俬,就是DIY生活;好處是無需為傢俱付工錢,壞處是你也沒工錢燈泡換個節能燈,不跨行取款。

9、不買小車——打車,拼車,就不買車;臉皮越厚,錢留越久。讓它只是一個夢吧,只是早晚而已。

10、用打折卡——打折的是商品,不是生活;不怕沒信用卡,就怕沒打折卡。更何況現在商家打折一批批,年底,商家也得賺錢回家呀。

星洲日報/財富廣場

留住人才成功可待‧魯賓斯坦:裁員非減成本良策

《大腦型組織》作者兼管理大師莫什‧魯賓斯坦說,目前全球經濟環境嚴峻各國競相裁員之際,若能設法留住人才及集合一批人才庫,無疑是“從現在起就譜寫成功的故事。”

他指出,未來企業的成功不靠資本密集或人力密集,而是透過創意、協作與團隊精神,把企業或公司推向更高層次。

他早前在吉隆坡國際金融領導中心(INCLIF)一項講座會後說,目前每家企業都在進行減薪、裁員與削減成本與讓員工宣告提早退休或自願離職之舉動。

人才流失出現斷層

魯賓斯坦教授認同削減成本的措施,但不同意以裁減人員達致削減成本的目標,因為人力始終是企業的核心資本,裁減措施使人才流失與出現皕斷層,衝擊未來的競爭力。

“倘若一些管理層在未達致退休年齡就被迫提早退休,那對企業將帶來災難性後果,因為這些這麼一來也促使良好人才紛紛求去。”

當企業內傳言會有裁員時,即使只是裁員一成,每個人將人人自危,焦慮、擔憂被裁充斥職場,這也導致原本和諧的工作環境瓦解,人們開始互不信任,更遑論為公司提出創意點子。

他舉多年前科技泡沫爆破時為例說,當時很多資訊工藝公司因而紛紛裁員,一家芝加歌的類似公司也準備裁掉一成的人力。

他有幸與這間公司對話及提供諮詢,很多員工因對公司未來不確定而擔憂懼怕,從而影響員工表現。

他與公司首席執行員對話,後者認為裁員不是錯誤決策,談商結果很多員工提出以貸款給公司10%薪金度過難關,取代由公司向員工實行10%減薪。

在這樣的方案下,員工既保住尊榮,而每位員工對公司有很大歸宿感,並為公司努力付出,最終使公司邁向成功,最重要的全部員工留下與公司一起奮鬥。

他說,如果當初這名首席執行員堅持裁減10%人員,走的可能不是10%的人員,而是所有員工的創意、歸宿感與合作精神將蕩然無存。

忠誠與信任為成功要素

他指出,對一家成功的企業來說,忠誠度與相互的合作與信任,是邁向成功的重要元素。

他表示,這次由信貸緊縮而蔓延至全球金融危機,主要是人心在嚐盡了多次成功滋味後,因太過自信而變得太狂妄。

他說,這些人只一味相信世上只有白天鵝,即使確實有黑天鵝的存在,也會被否定為非天鵝類。當初人們預警房市與信貸緊縮會帶來災害,人們無動於衷也是這種心理在作祟。

他表示,這次金融危機可能短暫促使一些國家更傾向保護主義,重點保護自身國家的利益,但基於各國互為牽連與接觸,要完全切斷這種關係而獨樹一幟並不容易。

提到大馬100億令吉迷你配套時,他說,各國可祭出不同規模的救市措施,但最終是否成功得看成效。

星洲日報/投資致富

退休藍圖‧宜及早制訂

你用許多年的時間來籌備退休,建立儲蓄計劃。然後,你突然退休了,心態從“未雨綢繆”努力存錢,轉化成“從撲滿裡拿錢花”享受成果。你可以放心花錢而沒有罪惡感嗎?當然可以。你不但可以這麼做,也應該這麼做。

每人都應該有一張人生計劃藍圖。你可能知道未來每個月應付多少錢的賬單,但你必須清楚你和你的配偶希望退休後如何享受人生、到哪裡旅遊,其重要性亞於儲蓄和財富管理。

重審資產回報率
力降負債

你有許多管道規劃退休後的消費,退休後的儲蓄亦然,但許多人卻視之為畏途。首先,你必須清楚知道哪些收入是固定且不可改變的,你的退休金就個很好的例子,每個月進賬的額度相同。但你也可以擁有可以帶來收益的資產,例如銀行存款、證券和投資。你有必要問自己以下的問題:

一、我名下資產的獲利能力是否令人滿意?

二、我是否應考慮重新分配資產,例如把錢從支票賬戶轉到存款賬戶,或者從活期存款轉為忽略的小處著存款。

三、我能否減少每個月的信用支出,譬如賣掉手上的東西來減少負債,利用低利率信貸付款等。

宜尋專業意見

“ 我們一直很怕和我們的會計師見面。我們向來不善理財,如果有人告訴我,賬戶裡還有存款,我可能還會嚇一跳。我們在家時確實努力省錢,像是搜集折價券,留意報紙刊登的清倉拍賣消息。我知道錢是怎麼花掉的,我們總是想去哪裡旅行就去哪裡旅行。不過,我們現在學乖了,如果計劃今年去美國阿拉斯加,明年帶孩子去加拿大新斯科省旅行,會先找會計師商量。”(一位來自加拿大魁北京省的退休人士──德洛瑞斯的分享)

投資前先作好風險規劃

不論你處於人生哪一個階段,快速致富總是很誘人的。但是如果任何賺錢方案有以下特徵,請特別提高警覺:

●對方要求你把支票開給個人而非公司;

●對方阻撓你打電話詢問朋友的看法,或者尋求專家意見;

●對方要求你簽署授權者,讓業務代表或顧問擔任你的委託人;

●對方要求你先付一筆錢,以保障你的投資名額;

●對方向你施壓,要你在很短的時間內做決定;

●對方承諾的獲利豐厚得難以置信;

●對方向你保證絕無風險;

●對方拒絕向你提供書面資料。

星洲日報/投資致富

瞭解個人理財傾向

你繼承了500萬令吉的財產!你會怎樣處理這筆錢?如果你是樂天型的人,你可能很快就花了一大筆(甚至全部),然後在一年內財務狀況又回到原點,而且沒有後悔。

如果你是認真、勤懇的類型,你首先會償付所有的債務,然後只花三分之一,為自己的將來進行規劃,透過實際的計劃投資其餘的資金。

你也可能是哪種認為自己不該有大豐收的人,可能會將現金派完。不管怎樣,我們都是不同類型的人。

在我們的人生中,大家都有不同的需求、目標及宗旨,我們的行為舉止反映出我們對事情的不同看法、想法與信念。

不同性情用錢方式也不同

關於人類行為舉止的研究,可以追索到古希臘哲學。

希波克拉提斯(公元前370)提及憂郁(melancholic)、暴躁(choleric)、冷漠(phlegmatic)及樂天(sanguine)這幾種體液決定不同的性情。

最新的資訊系統簡稱為DISC,將我們的個性分為支配(dominance)、有影響力(influence)、穩重(steadiness)及順從(compliance)這4種。

我們都有一個主要的特性,有本身的實力配套及弱點,這些指引我們每日的行為舉止與用錢方式。

你是哪種類型?

憂郁(順從)型

完美主義者、分析型、規劃者、杞人憂天者、享受藝術與美好事物、缺乏主見、細心、忠誠、細緻,他們是良師益友、顧問及醫療者。

憂慮順從型者擁有的支票簿及銀行賬戶結存,會剩下最後一分錢,這位仔細的規劃師,將確保擁有所需的保單及儲蓄,以應付未來之需。

不過,這位杞人憂天者卻需要較長時間做一項決定,譬如說購買房屋,在進行投資時他可能過於謹慎或保守,一切的選擇都必須探討,惟最終的決策將會是一個不錯的選擇。

他抵擋不了美好事物的誘惑,這是他的弱點之一,可能促使他在名牌服裝、藝術品或音響系統進行大筆消費。

暴躁(支配)型

有決心、沒耐心、追求目標、反應遲鈍、傾向於有掌控權、喜歡冒險、堅持己見、實際及果斷,他們是創意者及領導者。

暴躁支配型會把他的財務事項放在首要位置,他可能要求其配偶記錄個別的消費項目,這類型的人會自己處理所有的事項,不接受專業者的協助,留下配偶往往缺乏處理財務的自主權。

財務預算需要花時間,他想要的東西就會購買,對他來說,購物是雜物事項,他會嘗試迅速完成他的任務。

冷漠穩重型悠閒、喜歡寧靜、可靠、沒有心機、有條理、儲蓄者、慢做決定、內向、說話得體,他們是監護者及供養者。

穩重冷漠型曉得如何保持工作的穩定,他的生活會維持在自己收入的範圍內,他是購物的討價還價者,進行財務預算需要較多時間。

身為儲蓄者、他不喜歡消費,只購買他需要的東西,基以悠哉的態度,有可能出現ASTRO服務或電源供應被卻斷,因為他通常在最後一分鐘或是過期才償付電費。

樂天有影響力型多話、有說服力、衝動、欠缺組織、愛嬉鬧、靜不下來、會遲到、熱情,他們是藝術工匠及表演者。

具有影響力的樂天者,很自然是一個“花費大王”,其座右銘是“我們一生人只活一次”,他的樂天行為可以促使他沒有節制的消費,經常跟隨潮流。

此外,他可能對慈善捐款很大方,與細心及規劃型不一樣的是,樂天型的人可能沒有一份財政預算,或保存財務數據。

以上任何一類型的人,是否為你的縮影?我們的個性是以上4類型的結合體,只是個別個性的成份稍有不同,在家裡你可能是樂天型,不過,在工作時可能要求完美。

針對這一些,所幸的是,個別特性的負面傾向是可以掌控的,不過,你必須承認這項弱點,第二,要接受改變。如果你關心目前的財務狀況,你對個人財務的管理,必須符合你的個性發展。

如何管理個人財務?

準備個人財務報表

做為一個參考,你應該擁有一份收入報表(顯示收入與開支水平,與公司的盈虧報告類似),還要有一份資產與負債報告(顯示你現有資產與債務的情況)。

如此一來,你的資金如何流入及從袋子外流,你將有一個明確的概念,焦躁與樂天型會認為保留財政預算及詳細資料是在浪費時間,應該聘請別人代勞。

樂天者會樂於付出代價獲取協助,焦躁型也會這樣做,雖然他們不大捨得花費,不過,他會遙控其助手。

掌控管理開銷傾向

管理開銷需要不同的方式,有賴於你的傾向,追求完美者喜歡美食,漂亮的裝飾可能通過謹慎的處理方式得以掌控,悠閒、有條理型,會預先將每月需償付的賬項設定自動付款,以便在期限內付賬,樂天與焦躁型面對的挑戰是在預算內消費,有時會出現預算不準確。

瞭解你的情況

儲蓄及投資是另一個需要關注的領域,專家可以提供以上各特性者應有的協助,不論他是過於保守的追求完美者、悠閒有條理者或是短期樂天者,採用風險計算方式,以及瞭解你的財務要求。

焦躁者需信任在他控制之下的人,樂天與有條理者,需確保他們擁有足夠的保險保障,以及退休儲蓄。

總結一句,只要你已鑒定及瞭解你的個人傾向,你可以在一定程度上控制你的性情。

星洲日報/投資致富/

規劃遺產‧下一代受惠


繼承得來不易的任何規模家庭財富,可以對孩子帶來正與負面影響。本欄將討論財富分配概念,即是財富週期中的最後階段,而財富分配也確保遺產的完整性及將一個人的資產進行轉移。

很多人習慣拖延財富分配結構的規劃與執行程序。

一些在決定財富分配問題時普遍出現的借口包括;“我現在不需要去思考相關問題,因為不會有任何事情發生在我身上”及“我的孩子還是青少年,所以沒有必要做出那麼長遠的規劃”。

拖延相關程序的其一原因是財富分配時常被視為未來事項,也只會在個人或財富創造者不存在時才用得著。這與投資機會不一樣,因為他們無法即刻看到規劃財富分配結構所帶來的效果。

一般上,個人會在享受悠長海外旅遊或突然身患絕症的狀況下選擇撰寫遺囑,以擬定財富分配計劃。同時也有一些人在面對法律訴訟或離婚時,突然意識到財富規劃與分配的重要性。

制定有效財富分配計劃

然而,在面對相關狀況時,急促的規劃將導致判斷變得模糊,並影響個人製定有效的財富分配計劃。

財富分配是財富規劃中的主要事項,同時也是財富週期的一部份。他被視為相關週期的最後部份,但個人必須在累積及增加本身資產的同時也時常考量個人財富分配事項。

考量如何將財富分配給下一代是非常重要的,因為這將提供專注力多過於壓力。

資產繼承人必須瞭解財富是達成目的的一項工具,而不是將其耗盡。

資產分配的方法可從撰寫簡單遺囑或開設父母與子女的聯名戶口延伸至複雜的家庭結構,當中包括設立家庭辦公室及信託,這也是洛克菲勒基金(Rockefeller Foundation)中所見,即是在120年前就為洛克菲勒創立的一樣。

很多母父透過本身的方式,儘他們所能創造出他們認為最好的財富分配結構。因此,可以普遍看見父母將孩子納入其定期存款戶口的聯名者或以孩子名義來購買房子,更進一步的方式則為設立家族持有公司及分發股票給他們的孩子。

一般上,當一個人使用財富分配的相關方法,他們都是為了方便,同時也不會預想其目的或考慮相關行動所帶來的後果。

舉例來說,將子女納為定期存款戶口的聯合者、產業的共同持有人或發行家族持有公司的股票,父母將會持續性涉及孩子的債務,而這可從專業債務至離婚排列。

另外,沒有適當的財富分配規劃及在無法預計的變動下,孩子可能在很年輕就繼承相關財產,那個時候的他們可能還未有能力去瞭解、掌握或管理這筆財富。

然而,財富轉移行動非常容易,可是有責任性地轉移財富則需要更多的思考。

流動型資產怎麼分

在現代生活中,很多父母傾向同等地對待每個孩子。基於害怕不公平分配將引發指責及為了方便,父母都會選擇平均將財富分配予他們的孩子。

然而,有多少人持有可進行平均分配的流動型資產?

共同分享一些無法容易被分配的資產,例如產業,將導致家庭關係出現裂痕。相關問題將在聯合遺產繼承人無法為分配相關產業而達致共識時發生。

如果財富分配計劃沒有正確獲得執行,相關裂痕可能影響那些容易被平均分配的資產,例如家族公司的股票。

提個例子,平均將五項家族企業股票分配給五個孩子,在首階段顯示公平及容易進行。然而,如果家族生意只是由最年幼的女兒打理,而不是其他四個兄弟姐妹,相關公司的發展可能受到阻礙。這是因為家族生意的股票是平均分為五個部份的。

無可置疑的,在沒有進行考量下進行財富分配,並沒有考慮到財富的意義及如何管理下,這將導致財富在一代之間消散。

策劃遺產分配永遠不會太早

很多財產繼承人可能對父母如何困難地創造相關財富沒有概念;而下一代一般都沒有獲得灌輸父母創造財富的相關目的。

雖然合法持有權、資產結構及如何讓下一代合法地繼承相關資產與善於處理稅務為重要因素,但涵蓋家庭考量也同樣重要。

這將包括如何在財產分配上灌輸家庭成員繼續讓資產增長及保護資產免於各種風險,當中包括家族生意、創造人及離婚。

決定財富分配計劃的過程不需要非常困難及費力,只需要擁有相關計劃就可以了。更重要的是,策劃遺產分配永遠都不會太早,但有時卻變得太遲進行。

在瞭解了財富分配的概念後,下期我們將討論有關個人資產分配所需考量的事項。當中也會分享確保成功資產分配的可使用方法,不只是在資產方面,也包括家庭遺產。

星洲日報/投資致富