Monday, March 15, 2010

阿布扎比投資局‧20年平均回酬達6.5%

中東的神秘主權財富基金-阿布扎比投資局(ADIA)週日(3月14日)發表年度回顧報告指出,過去20多年間,每年的平均投資報酬率為6.5%。 這是ADIA自1976年成立以來,首度對外公開投資績效。

除了績效外,ADIA的報告幾乎沒有其他細節,連總資產價值均未揭露。部份專家估算,ADIA近年來總資產已超越5000億美元,但官方從未作出回 應。

ADIA表示,資產組合中,約35至45%以投資發展中國家股票為主。

因石油出口而茁壯的阿布扎比,是阿聯酋7個酋長國中佔地最大、最富有的地區。

ADIA指出,其持有80%資產係委託外部基金經理人所管理,60%的資產以追蹤指數為主,突顯其保守的投資策略。

報告中最為引人注目的是年均報酬率,但由於資料回溯長達20至30年,遂難以將數據和其他機構投資者對照。過去20年,ADIA每年的投資報酬率折 合成年率為6.5%,過去30年的年均報酬率則為8%。

1974年設立的新加坡淡馬錫控股,去年底公佈過去20年的年均報酬率為13%、過去30年則達16%。來源以捐款為主的哈佛大學管理基金,過去 20年的年均投資報酬率為11.7%,但未公佈短期數據。

分享集: 有土斯有财

●冯时能 股票研究人

凡有海水处,就有华人的踪迹。

华人每到了一个地方,有了落地 生根的打算,最先考虑的就是买房地产。

华人对土地情有独钟,是有其历史渊源的。

中国数千年来,以农为本,即使到现在,中 国80%的人口还是住在农村。务农,是他们谋生的基本方式。

最想落叶归根

务农的首要条件就是要有土地。有了土地,温饱就 不成问题。故农民视土地为命根,是可以理解的。我们的上一代,离乡背井到异域谋生,缩衣节食,储蓄金钱,最大的期望就是落叶归根,

回到老 家去买田置地。有了田地,家人的生活就有了保障。现在时移境迁,绝大多数海外华人已成为居留国的公民,但他们的血液里,仍遗留着祖辈对土地的情意结,购买 房地产仍被视为人生的主要项目。拥有自己的屋子,即使只是“蜗居”,仍是许多上班族梦寐以求的目标。

大部分的必需品,在满足了人们的享受 欲望之后,价值日益贬损,汽车就是典型的例子。房地产是极少数在满足了人们“住”的需求之后,仍具保值功能的资产之一。

从投资的角度看, 买屋子应列在买股票之前。

房地产投资有两条途径。一条是买屋子;另一条是买土地。

土地涨幅更快

根据地产 投资者的经验,土地的涨幅比屋子更大,速度也比屋子更快。理由很简单,发展商买进大片土地,化整为零,分割为小段,建屋后把屋子连同土地卖给你,发展商已 赚了一笔,进一步增值,速度当然较慢,涨幅自然也较小。

故要应付居住的需求,理应优先买屋,但要投资谋利则应该买地,因为空地增值更快, 增幅也更大。

由于银行提供了相等于屋价70到90%的房屋贷款,由买屋者按月摊还,还期长达二、三十年,使更多上班族买得起屋子,真是功 德无量。

买土地由于所涉款额更大,非一般工薪阶级所能负担,故对上班族来说,买屋容易买地难。

但这不等于上班族与土地投 资绝缘。实际上,通过股票市场,上班族有许多投资房地产的机会,而且可以买到价值被严重低估的房地产。

大部分上班族都有自卑感,认为自己 没有能力买地皮。实际上,如果他勤做功课,深入研究产业投资信托股(Reits)和产业股票的话,他不难发现,他可以廉价购买地皮,而且大部分上班族都买 得起。

首先,他要对“资产证券化,证券大众化”有明确的认识。

分割成小单位

所谓“资产证券化”,就是以 证券(一纸证书)代表资产,就好像以地契代表屋地,以车卡代表汽车一样;“证券大众化”是将那一纸证书,分割为很小的单位,每个单位代表一小部分的资产。 这样分割之后,数目变小了,就有更多人买得起,这就是“大众化”了。

“大众化”使更多低收入的市井小民,也有参与投资产业的机会。产业投 资信托股就是根据这个概念成立的。产业投资信托股就是单位信托之一,只不过单位信托所买的是股票,而产业投资信托股所买的是房地产而已。

买 产托股跟买屋没两样

买产业投资信托股票跟买屋子收租没有两样,却没有了收租的麻烦,而且股息也比屋子租金高。然而产业投资者却宁愿买屋子 而不买 产业投资信托股,实在令人费解。

购买产业股其实就是购买土地,在股市低沉时,股价大跌。这时购买产业股就是廉价购买地皮。长期持 有,股票的价值会跟着地价的上升而增值。

市价更合算

每一家上市产业公司的年报,都会详细列出所拥有的土地面积和在账目中 的价值,你只要以其价值除以土地面积,就可以算出每方尺的成本,然后将这成本与当地的土地市价比较,就可以看出该公司土地的价值是否被低估;你购买价值被 低估的产业股,等于廉价购买地皮,实际上,比直接购买地皮更合算。

如果你研究产业股的话,你一定会发现,以市价估值产业公司的地皮,许多 产业股的价值被严重低估。以目前的市价买产业股,其实比买地皮更合算,也更方便。

许多公司的地皮是一、二十年前买下的,其实已大幅度增 值,目前根本无法以其账面价值买到。例如激成(KSeng,3476,主板工业产品股)在新山附近拥有的9500英亩园丘都是在新山市30公里的范围内, 具有发展潜能,在账目中,每亩只值数千令吉,市值已增至数十万令吉。由于没有重新估值,故激成的每股净有形价值仅为4.98令吉,若重新估值,每股净有形 资产价值可高达17.10令吉。

买地的态度

有些产业公司,由于历年的业绩表现平平,故不受投资者垂青。股价长期在低水平 徘徊。其实有关公司拥有不少不错的地皮,而且是在多年前买下的,目前地价已大为增值,但在账目中仍保持买进时的价值。抱着买地皮的态度购买此类被忽略了的 产业股,比抢购热门产业更合算。

例如以吉打为基地的产业股优宾(Eupe,6815,主板产业股)每股净有形资产价值为1令吉81仙,以 1亿2800万股,每股1令吉的股票计算,等于拥有2亿3168万令吉的地产,以目前每股45仙的股价计算,买完全部股票只需5760万令吉,只等于其产 业价值的四分之一。

从不发股息

以45仙购买优宾的股票,等于以四分之一的价格购买该公司所拥有的地皮,更何况这些地皮, 有不少是在十年前买进的,现在的价值最少已翻了一番。要在吉打买地皮,倒不如买该公司的股票,以买土地的态度长期持有,这样更加合算。

何 以优宾不为投资者垂青?我想该公司自1997年上市以来,虽然年年赚钱,却从来不发股息,投资者长期没入息,感到失望是原因之一。

“有土 斯有财”,中国人这句老话自有至理。若抱着买地皮的态度搜购价值被低估的产业股,长期持有,应可获厚利。

南洋商报

Sunday, March 14, 2010

We all need to become millionaires

One must have cash reserves of about RM1mil to be able to maintain one’s current lifestyle 20 years after retirement
Ooi Kok Hwa: The key principle here is we need to have cash reserves of more than RM1mil to be able to maintain our current lifestyle 20 years after retirement.

WE need to become millionaires when we retire! A lot of people have misconceptions about being millionaires. To them, being a millionaire means they should own total assets – by adding up their total cash, house, Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) contribution and car – that are worth RM1mil and above.

They believe that once they achieve one million cash, they should enjoy themselves by driving big luxury cars and staying in bungalows.

In reality, all of us need to become millionaires when we retire at age 55. Based on our computation, we need to own total cash, including all money in savings, fixed deposits and EPF, which have total value of more than RM1mil.

The key principle here is we need to have cash reserves of more than RM1mil to be able to maintain our current lifestyle 20 years after retirement from age 55 to age 75. This is on the assumption that we can live up to 75 (the average lifespan of Malaysians).

Based on our computation (see table), if you are now 35 years old and your current monthly expenses are RM3,000 per month, assuming you are only able to generate a return of 3% (the return from fixed deposits) on all of your savings and the RM3,000 will grow by the average historical inflation rate of 3.5% per annum, you would need RM1.6mil when you retire at age 55.

This amount will be enough to maintain your current lifestyle for the next 20 years after your retirement at 55.

However, if you need to spend RM5,000, RM7,000 or RM10,000 per month, then you need RM2.6mil, RM3.7mil and RM5.3mil respectively at your retirement age of 55.

In short, you need to become a millionaire when you retire even if you only maintain a simple lifestyle after your retirement. You will not be able to use this money to buy a big luxury car or a bungalow, as you really need the money for the next 20 years.

Thomas J. Stanley and William D. Danko have conducted research on the reasons why some Americans become wealthy. They discovered that a lot of them live well below their means.

Unfortunately, we notice that some Malaysians do not have enough money when they retire. Some of them may not be aware that they really need to accumulate that amount of money when they retire. Some may be aware, but they may have used up all their savings to support their children’s education. As a result, they need to find a job after retirement.

Some may have difficulties finding a job. A lot of companies may prefer to employ a young graduate rather than a retiree unless the latter is willing to accept a lower pay.

We also believe that a lot of investors are quite worried about having enough money for retirement. They are also concerned that their money may not be enough to protect them against inflation. Hence, besides controlling our expenses, we also need to know how to grow our money.

Looking at the table, different minimum achievable annual target returns can provide different required amounts for retirement.

For the current monthly expenses of RM3,000, if you are only able to generate a 3% return per annum, then you need to have RM1.6mil for retirement whereas you only need about RM900,000 if you are able to generate a return of 10%.

However, higher returns come with higher risks. We need to understand our risk tolerance level. We need to equip ourselves with adequate investing knowledge if we intend to generate higher returns.

·Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser licensed by the Securities Commission and is managing partner of MRR Consulting.

Thestar