路透芝加哥3月5日电(记者 Julie Steenhuysen)---美国周四发布的研究结果显示，乐观者比悲观者更长寿更健康。
匹兹堡大学研究人员考察了“女性健康促进”项目研究对象的死亡率和慢性疾病状况，此项研究始于1994年，追踪了超过10万名50岁以上的女性。
八年追踪调查发现，乐观女性较悲观女性死亡的几率要低14%，死于心脏病几率低出30%。
而且，乐观者不容易得高血压、糖尿病，也不容易染上烟瘾。
Hilary Tindle博士带领的研究团队，还研究了那些对他人缺乏信任感的“愤世”女性，并将其与更容易信赖他人的女性作比较。
Tindle接受电话采访时表示，那些“愤世”女性常常会认同这样的想法，譬如“我常常要听命于懂得还不如我多的人”、或者“最好别相信任何人，这样才安全”。
Tindle说：“这表明他们对别人缺乏信任。”她指出，这种想法会带来严重後果。
Tindle指出，此项研究期间“愤世”女性死亡的几率较随和女性要高出16%。并且，前者死于癌症的几率也比後者高出23%。
她周四在美国心理学学会的年会上提交了此项研究结果。（完）
◎陸文宗“經常聽見人家說排毒、解毒，到底，我們體內有些什么毒素？”一個病人來訪時無意間提到這個問題，看他一臉興趣盎然的樣子，我順著他的話頭接了下去﹕
“ 首先，很多人都誤解了毒是可以‘排’出來。根據英國皇家醫學會在2005年的發表，事實上沒有“排毒”這回事，體內毒素必須被分解才可以經由尿或糞便排出 體外，而不是以毒素的方式直接排出。例如體內的“氮”﹐也就是我們常說的阿摩尼亞（Amonia），必須由肝腎代謝、變成無毒的尿素才能夠排出體外。所以 只要肝臟和腎臟功能正常﹐這些體內的毒素會自動地代謝和分解﹐並不需要服用額外的藥物進行所謂的排毒﹐而且服用過多藥物反而會加重肝腎的負擔。”
讓我告訴你，哪些是人體常見的毒素？
在新陳代謝正常情況下，食物經過食道、胃、十二指腸、小腸、大腸，最后從肛門排出體外，整個過程一般可在12～24小時內完成，這樣就可確保廢物不在腸中過久停留。因為接觸腸壁時間太久，廢物就難免會被人體再次吸收，從而導致體內中毒。
儘管人體有這樣的防毒功能，可是疲勞、緊張或其他生理原因，都會導致人體出現代謝功能失調、內分泌紊亂，致使人體的廢物長期停留在體內。
這些殘余的廢物在腸內開始腐敗，結腸中的菌群就會不斷分解廢物，產生毒素。這些毒素經過結腸再次吸收，不斷滲出汙染體內環境，后經血液循環進入人體的不同器官，從而進入體內引發各種疾病，出現記憶力衰退、疲勞、面色灰黃、便祕、痔瘡和內分泌失調、肥胖等。
人體毒素存在方式
自由基
自由基是造成人體衰老的最大因素。適量的自由基可保護身體免受外來物的侵害。但體內自由基一旦過量，就會產生很強的氧化作用而侵害體內細胞，造成衰老、皮膚黑斑、過敏及心血管疾病。
膽固醇
膽固醇是人體不可缺少的一種營養物質，人體內的膽固醇絕大部分由肝臟製造，它不僅作為身體的結構部分，還是合成許多重要物質的原料，但長期大量攝入膽固醇，會使血清膽固醇升高，增加心血管疾病的危險。
宿便
宿便即腸道內長期淤積的陳舊大便，一般3～5日不解大便而停留于腸內的糞塊叫宿便。宿便是人體腸道內一切毒素的根源，它所產生的大量毒素被人體吸收后，將降低人體免疫力，誘導各種疾病，嚴重危害健康。
脂質沉積
現代人經常攝入含有過高營養的食物，再加上運動量少，水分補充不足，就很容易導致血液黏稠。隨著血液濃度增高，就會造成大量脂質沉積在血管內壁，使各器官供氧不足，引起腦栓塞等疾病。
尿酸
尿酸也是人體新陳代謝的一種產物，主要由腎臟排出。當尿酸在血液裏的濃度超過正常值時，容易沉積在軟組織或關節引發急性發炎反應。
乳酸
人處于疲勞狀況中會出現腰酸背痛、渾身乏力、運動遲鈍、笨拙等症狀，這是由于乳酸堆積造成的。人體在長時間運動中會產生乳酸，它和焦化葡萄糖酸在體內不斷積累，導致血液呈酸性。
水毒與瘀血
水毒的形成是因為人體食用了過多的冰冷食物或是體內的水代謝出現異常而導致體液分佈不均勻。瘀血是人體內的老、舊、殘、汙血液，是氣、血、水不流暢的病態與末梢循環不暢的產物。水毒會引起發汗、排尿的異常與水腫，瘀血會引起細胞、肌肉的養分不足，造成肥胖等症狀。
中國報
| Written by Norzuhaira Ruhanie |
| Wednesday, 21 January 2009 15:34 |
Masinah Abdullah, 48, gets most of her income from her small catering and baking business. The single mother of four also sews clothes and provides alteration services.
“Usually, my customers would ask me to alter new clothes but nowadays I receive many requests to repair and alter old clothes that are still in good condition,” says Masinah.
Although she works from home, Masinah is relieved that the price of petrol is going down but says she is still struggling to keep her costs down as she does not want to charge her customers too much for her catering services. She expects the next 12 months to be hard but her personal cash flow to see her through.
There is much to do this year, and strengthening your financial status is one of them. While Malaysia is expected to escape a recession, the economic situation is expected to stay tough and the challenge for all individuals would be in ensuring that they are not hit by a personal credit crunch.
Here are three areas to look at to stay financially stronger in tough times.
Review your goals
Financial experts say the first thing to do is review your financial goals and decide if you can stick with them or revise certain targets to suit your current needs. “You need to know where you are and where you want to get to. Taking the time to set challenging but realistic goals is vital,” says Rajen Devadason, a Securities Commission-licensed financial planner with MAAKL Mutual Bhd.
Rajen, who is also CEO of RD Wealth Creation Sdn Bhd, adds that long-term goals may remain unchanged but personal cash levels should be increased. He expects a “cash is king” environment in increasing measure over the next six to 15 months.
Ben Ng, a trainer with Total Financial Planning Advisory Sdn Bhd, says the decision to revise certain goals very much depends on a person’s in-flow of income, which, for many, comes from their jobs. “As an employee, you need to ensure that you are not easily replaceable, by improving your efficiency and multitasking to suit the company’s needs.”
When looking out for investment opportunities, says Rajen, take advantage of any sharp dips in the equity, bond and property markets to buy great assets that generate cash flow by way of dividends, distributions, coupons and rent. However, it is imperative that the buying is done largely out of current cash flow surpluses and not by depleting capital too quickly, he adds.
“If the crisis turns out to be longer than expected, say 18 to 24 more months, then savvy individuals don’t want to end up having to use up all their ‘bullets’ way too early in this downturn,” Rajen explains. “I believe that in the next 12 months, there will be a tremendous transfer of wealth from the impatient and the unprepared to the patient and super well-prepared.”
Spend less, save more
If cash is king, then you need to bring yourself into a stronger position. Reduce spending, work much harder to generate larger incomes and therefore get significantly larger cash surpluses, build large savings buffers and invest slowly and carefully over the long haul, says Rajen.
“Ways to reduce spending could include eliminating consumer debt by paying off all credit card balances and deferring any unnecessary lumpy purchases that are not wealth-generating… like a new car if the old one is still functional,” he says.
Indeed, Malaysians are continuing to save, according to MasterCard in a recent survey. Ninety-three percent of Malaysians polled said saving was important. The credit card company reported that one in three consumers in Asia is looking to save more than 20% of their income over the next 12 months.
Masinah says she has adequate savings for her family. “My eldest is now working, so he helps with expenses.” She paid off her home loan about a year ago and now uses the surplus money for investments in government-guaranteed savings certificates and unit trust funds. She discusses with her children ways to reduce their expenses and takes small steps such as building a compost pile, growing a small vegetable garden and replacing all the light bulbs in the house with energy-saving versions.
The goal, says Rajen, should be to “try and get to the point of being able to save and invest 40% to 50% of your net income, apart from EPF, which is forced savings and which should continue at the maximum allowable rate.
“The only way to create investment capital is to spend less than you earn and to carefully allocate your savings toward the emergency buffer, normal savings and well-chosen investments.”
Most Malaysians, says Ng, have been controlling their spending due to hikes in the price of many consumer goods. Look at avenues to increase your take-home income, he adds.
“See if you can earn extra income doing what you already doing, but in your own time. If you are a tax consultant, for example, you could ask your boss for a commission if you secure clients outside your working hours.”
Have your emergency buffer
Have been putting off building an emergency buffer? While it is always important to have one, uncertain times means it is all the more crucial. The fund, says Rajen, should be between three and six months’ expenses for an employee and six to 12 months for a self-employed individual. “If you don’t have the buffer in place, your savings allocation should go into an emergency fund until it reaches the target size, based on your circumstances.”
To ensure maximum safety, the money should “be kept super safe in bank savings accounts, fixed deposit accounts and money market funds that do not have any bond component,” he adds.
Project manager Mohd Azlan Masood Azlan has about a month’s worth of expenses in his emergency fund but he’s trying to get the level up to six months soon. He has been paring his credit card debt and plans to cancel cards that have yearly fees and move towards those that offer cash rebates and/or discounts in addition to rewards points. He is also trimming some of his investments in equities, although he may look into buying them should there be opportunities. He may increase his investment in unit trust funds, focusing on commodities and equities. “Being an investor who dollar-cost-averages, this is the time to buy, when units are cheap,” he says.
This article appeared in Issue 89 (January 2009) of Personal Money, the personal finance magazine published by The Edge Communications Sdn Bhd
| Written by Assif Shameen |
| Friday, 06 March 2009 14:53 |
AFTER A BIG rout in US markets overnight when benchmark indices like the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 plunged to new 12-year lows, Asian markets are all opening up substantially lower on the last day of what has been a fairly horrific week for investors worldwide.
Warning of General Motors’ impending bankruptcy, a deteriorating banking crisis in US and Europe and new employment data in US due out tonight which might show unemployment soaring past the 8% mark are putting pressure on markets globally. Clearly, investors aren’t convinced just yet that the real economies are about to turn the corner anytime soon.
根 據在MarketWatch.com撰文的財經編輯Jonathan Burton表示，若你的投資組合分五成於股票、五成於絕對平穩的美國長期債券，表現竟然比得上80／20股債比例的投資。而且持有前場方。50組合，近 日亦定會睡得比其他人安穩。投資機構Financial Engines的Christopher Jones亦說，“如果你清楚知道自己方目標，要在某一段短時間內累積至某金額的財富，無可否認，一個低風險的投資組合更能有效地讓你達至目標”。
如果現在發現自己大部份的投資者一樣，不幸地在此熊市時賣出所有股票，並錄得不少損失，請不要 怪責自己，事實上世上沒有多少投資者懂得處理此打擊。在眾多人士中，情況最壞的莫過於將近退休的一群，他們把大部份資產放於股票，而且沒有太多機會可讓他 們在餘下的工作生涯中，再賺回之前所失去的。
不少典型的投資者也認為，長期而言，股票一定跑贏現金及債券，所以若不大比例投資在股市中，你不會達到財務目標，通脹會蠶食你的資本，而且亦會白白浪費了一段黃金投資期。
這些說話確是有點駭人聽聞，彷彿告訴你，不去投資股票將是一件百分之百的錯事。不過請你留意一下，當你近七、八成的資產放在股票時，的確它在你20至30歲的黃金時期待你不薄，但當你年過半百時，一次金融危機便會把你辛辛苦苦所得的，在短短幾個月，甚至幾週內全數抹去。
半股半債年回酬10%
其實有個較佳的投資方法，讓你不用時時刻刻看著股市之餘也有一回報。不過，首先你必須拋棄投資定要大部份放在股票的觀念，而把資產一半投資於股票、一半於債券。
根據晨星的計算，若你在1987年10月這個害怕的大跌市後，把你的資產一半放於道瓊斯工業指數基金，一半放於長期美國國債或現今的20年國庫債券指數基金。
過去21年不斷讓兩者保持在50、50的比例，並把息股及債息再投資於同樣組合。直至今年10月，組合平均有10%的年度化增長，而最好與最壞的情況也不過在13.8%的升幅及9.1%的跌幅間。
“股債八二分”回報似過山車
比較80／20的股債比例，在較大風險下，年度化投資回報不過多0.3%至10.3%，而最好 表現時雖可有17.6%升幅，但跌市時亦可錄得4.2%虧損。再說說過去10月與9月份的高位比較，50／50組合只下跌14.6%，但80／20組合卻 錄得24.8%跌幅）。由此可見，低風險的組合未必表現差距很大，但卻一定可減少你失眠的次數。
當然也不能不否認，50／50組合令你少賺一點，但分別並非如此明顯。在牛市時，沒多少人願意作如此保守的策略，不過若你肯跟隨，同樣可讓你不用在避無可避的跌市中恐懼失眠。
星洲日報／投資致富／投資補習班‧2009.03.01（英國）一項研究發現，雞蛋並不是人體血液內膽固醇的主要來源，因此多國政府提出每週最多吃3隻蛋的指引並不合時宜。英國心臟基金會最近亦已收回吃蛋限制建議。
薩利大學的研究在英國營養學基金會的營養學公報中發表。研究指出，雞蛋中的膽固醇對血液內的膽 固醇只有極輕微影響，雖然高膽固醇人士患心臟病風險較高，但他們體內的膽固醇只有三分一是來自飲食。相反，食物中的飽和脂肪、吸煙、癡肥和缺乏運動，才是 導致體內膽固醇含量增加的主因。
英國組織收回吃蛋建議
英國心臟基金會2年前提出，每週最多吃2至4隻雞蛋，但英國傳媒報導，基金會最近已收回有關建議。基金會承認，雞蛋對人體膽固醇的影響不大，反而脂肪含量多的肉類、全脂奶製品、蛋糕和餅乾等的飽和脂肪才應避免。（香港明報）
| Written by Aznita Ahmad Pharmy |
| Thursday, 05 March 2009 14:41 |
Maxis, 100 Plus, KFC, Adidas and Maybank were some of the top brand choices among teens in a survey conducted by local youth opinion community, Youthsay.
In the online survey conducted last month, a randomised sample of 10,208 Malaysians aged between 15 and 35 were asked to choose their top brands in different categories. The results of the survey, which was conducted between Feb 13 and 16, were reported in Carat Media's February Update.
Maxis, one of the biggest advertisers in the country, emerged as the favourite mobile phone operator among 67.9% of the respondents, followed by Celcom (43.7%) and DiGi (29.4%).
In the automobile category, local make Proton was the top choice for 38.5% of respondents, followed by Perodua (34%), Toyota (14%) and Honda (11.2%).
In the banking category, Maybank and CIMB emerged tops, with 65.1% of the teens picking Maybank and 52.8% picking CIMB.
In the beauty and skincare category, 36% of respondents picked Johnson & Johnson followed by Biore (27.1%), Bodyshop (25.3%) and L’Oreal (21.6%).
The most popular fast food outlets among teens were Kentucky Fried Chicken (81.3), McDonalds (77.4%), and Pizza Hut (63.8%). More than half (56.1%) of the respondents chose Secret Recipe as their favourite fast food outlet, putting it in fourth place behind Pizza Hut.
In the food and beverage category, teens' favourite snacks were Twisties (69.2%), Chipsmore (65.6%), Mr Potato (57.6%) and Mamee (53.6%).
100 Plus came out tops in the drinks category with 81.7%, followed by Milo (74%), Vitagen (63.6%) and Coca-Cola (59%).
In the mint/gum category, respondents preferred Mentos (79.5) to Wrigley’s (55.8), and Clorets (54%).
Favourite footwear among respondents was Adidas (45.7%), followed by Nike (43.6%), Bata (43.5%) and Vincci (32.1%).
Adidas was also the third favourite brand for watches, with 21.5% of the respondents choosing it after Casio (33%) and Swatch (24.2%).
theedgedaily
 |
IT IS a fact that the local market condition is very hard to predict since it is affected by both global and local factors. As an investor, it may not be possible to predict what is going to happen next, but there are certainly ways to learn from people who have succeeded in riding the waves of good and bad times throughout the years.
In the book "The Winning Investment Habits of Warren Buffett & George Soros", Mark Tier listed out 23 winning habits based on the habits of these two of the world's richest and most successful investors. Summarised below, are four main key habits that you might want to adopt as the fundamentals to successful investing.
Successful investor habit 1: Preserve your capital and minimise risk taking
All successful investors preserve their capital as a foundation and they do this through risk minimisation. Most investors have the perception that in order to make profits in the market, there is a need to take high risks and it is right to say that risk and return come hand in hand.
However, in order to ensure a long-term success, you should not just simply take any risks, but only calculated risks. This requires you to analyse the situation thoroughly as to be confident that the chances of having a good result on your side is high.
With that in mind, you would only end up investing in what Warren Buffett calls "high probability events", where the risk of loss is at the lowest and you are almost certain to make money. Always remember Warren Buffett's 'Investing Rules: "Rule No. 1: Never Lose Money! Rule No. 2: Never Forget Rule No. 1"
Successful investor habit 2: Do your homeworkbefore you invest
There are nearly one thousand companies listed in our stock market. Which one should you invest in? Having Habit No.1 as the foundation, you will know that the safest companies to invest in should be companies or industries that you are most familiar with, as you can only make good judgments if you have in-depth knowledge and understanding.
This means that you will have to do your own homework and research through all available sources, such as company annual reports, industry reports or public announcements, in order to obtain the facts on the industry, the company of your interest and its competitors.
This is necessary to ensure that you can draw good conclusions on the company's performance and future prospects. Therefore, time and hard work are the two essential elements in turning yourself into an informed and knowledgeable investor. In practicing this, you will also need to be selective and focused on certain industries in which you the have most interest and experience.
Successful investor habit 3: Have your own investment philosophy and system
What is an investment philosophy? An investment philosophy is a set of beliefs that you use as the foundation in developing your personal investment system for buying and selling investments. This will make sure you are fully aware of the reasons behind every investment decision you make. As a beginner in the investing world, you could probably start by following the investment philosophies and systems of some of the great investors that come closest to your heart.
However, along the way, you should tailor your investment system to suit your personality, goals and unique circumstances so that you can practice this entire system without stress and worries.
If you have the discipline to practice the right system religiously, you will not be easily influenced by the voices or rumours in the market and will not be tempted to simply follow the crowd. Hence, the chances of your making the wrong decisions will be minimised.
Successful investor habit 4: Be patient!
There is a Spanish proverb that says "The secret of patience is doing something else in the meantime". If you somehow managed to inculcate the above 3 habits, you will know exactly what you are looking for and as such, will be well equipped with the patience to wait for the right moment to buy or sell your stocks. Both Buffett and Soros stressed the fact that the secret of their success is having the patience to wait. Use your free time to explore and strategise other new opportunities as there are so many companies listed in the market. Always remember that identifying the right candidates does require time and patience.
On a last note, try to adopt the above habits now! Remember, good strategies will only be successful when executed with the right mindset!
This article was written by Securities Industry Development Corporation (SIDC) to educate investors on smart investing. The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be used as a substitute for legal or other professional advice.
SIDC, the leading capital markets education, training and information resource provider in Asean, is the training and development arm of the Securities Commission, Malaysia. It was established in 1994 and incorporated in 2007.
Business Times
| Such has been the turmoil in the world’s banking industry that, for the first time, Global Finance magazine is publishing a mid-year update of its much respected Safest Banks listing. The “World’s 50 Safest Banks” 2009 were selected through a comparison of the long-term credit ratings and total assets of the 500 largest banks around the world. Ratings from Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch were used. theedgesingapore |
Written by Ang Kok Heng
The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September last year generated a domino effect and drove more financial institutions into financial distress.
The financial landscape turned ugly immediately since then. Fear of depression resurfaced. Central banks worldwide cut interest rate simultaneously and increased stimulus packages to save the global economy. The sharp plunge in stock prices caused massive losses to some but provided “once-in-a-decade opportunities” for those who have been waiting for bargains. In line with the sharp contraction in imports following fears of reduced consumption, commodity prices also plunged.
While volatility and credit crisis have improved much, the worst may not be over and investment risk could still be high, at least over the immediate term. On the other hand, potential gain could be high for those who hit it right or have the holding power to ride through this crisis.
Possible events & investment options
Under different scenarios, there are different investment options. It is a matter of which event will happen. If it does happen, what will be the appropriate investment strategy to take advantage of the outcome? Some ideas are shown below.
(a) Stock recovers before economy
In line with deteriorating economies and falling corporate earnings, stock prices fell sharply. Part of the fall in price was due to falling fundamentals. The other contributing factors for the 50%-60% drop in stock prices include anticipation of further deterioration in the economy, exodus of foreign funds as well as distressed disposals by highly geared investors/owners and reluctant disposals by funds to meet redemption.
In terms of valuation, stock prices are cheap based on various aspects of measurement. The fear of further losses among investors (as usual in the greed and fear cycle) prevented some who have the capacity to invest from buying.
As a barometer of the economy, stock prices will recover before the economy recovers. If IMF is right, the global economy should recover early next year, stock market could bottom six months ahead or middle of this year. Thus, the opportunities to invest in stocks could be in the next quarter.
(b) Discounted blue chips
The present crisis provides opportunities for investors to acquire some of the blue chips at discounted prices. Well-managed blue chips will eventually recover and the management will implement appropriate measures such as cost cutting, rationalisation to minimise the fall in earnings during the current economic crisis. Some of them may even take advantage of the crisis to expand market share by acquiring rivals.
As blue chips are well supported by institutional investors and they seldom trade at cheap valuation, the present crisis is a blessing for those who intend to buy some blue chips for long-term investment. If not for this crisis, some of the blue chips will not be trading at low teens/single-digit valuation.
Blue chips are also an excellent means to ride the recovery of the stock market as they will most likely be the first to recover when foreign funds return.
(c) Bluest of the blue chips
While Malaysian stocks have fallen, foreign markets have fallen even more. There are many blue chips and well-known brand names in the Far East as well as in Europe and US which are trading at discounted prices. If we ignore banks that have toxic assets and waiting for government rescue, there are many bluest of the blue chips that are on the “cheap sale” list. These stocks have excellent management system, global brand name, established business network and global competitive advantage.
Following the opening of investment door for Malaysians to invest overseas, there are much more opportunities outside the country if we care to do some research. Some of the ideas include PetroChina and China Mobile from China, BHP from Australia, Great Eastern and Wilmar from Singapore, Microsoft and General Electric from US, Tesco from UK, etc.
(d) Bombed-out stocks
With our market down 40%, many stocks fell even more. Some plunged as much as 70%. If the collapse in price is not due to change in fundamentals but due to some desperate investors or funds to meet margin call or fund redemption, there will be opportunities to pick some cheap bargains. There are many penny stocks trading below RM0.50 having fair fundamentals. They could be in Mesdaq, property or construction-related companies. So long as these companies still have positive cashflow and will survive the current financial crisis, they could be bought like warrants but have no expiry date. Some of them could yield double or triple in gain when the market recovers in few years’ time. Since immediate recovery in price could be difficult in view of the still-poor market sentiment, slow accumulation could be more appropriate.
(e) High-yield stocks
During the period of uncertainty, some investors may want to stay cautious. Stocks which pay high dividend will be well supported and hence their share price could stay firm. Companies paying high dividend must be financially strong and the earnings must be “real”. It is because of this that companies that pay consistently high dividend over the years have lower risk relatively.
When choosing this type of stock, it is important to ensure that its business and cash flow are sustainable to support the dividend payment. As such, looking at the historical dividend yield alone is not sufficient to conclude whether a stock is suitable for dividend play. A good example is plantation stocks, which paid high dividend last year due to bumper profit from exceptional high CPO prices, but are unlikely to declare similarly high dividend this year.
(f) Commodity recovery
Jim Rogers is a long-term bull of commodities. The rationale is simple. Over long term, the limited supply of commodities and the gradual growth in demand will only push commodity prices higher. Recent evolution of China and also several emerging countries like Vietnam and India from primary agriculture economy to secondary economy of manufacturing requires substantial amount of basic materials. The pressure on supply will lift commodity prices higher over time.
Although the present economic slowdown will put a brake on demand, it is only temporary. After this global recession, manufacturing powerhouses will revive their production and supply of raw materials will be under stress again to meet the growing demand. As such, the uptrend cycle of commodity prices is likely to continue again after the present setback.
As for soft commodities, the swelling population worldwide as well as the growing affluence in populated economies, especially China and India, will increase the demand for many food items such as wheat, corn and vegetable oils. With limited arable land and limited scope to increase productivity, supply is under pressure to meet growing demand. The tight stock/usage ratio is very sensitive to any short-term narrowing of the supply-demand gap. Due to the limited substitute over short term, the consumer habit of consuming the same commodity normally resulted in inelastic demand. Any disruption to supply due to weather, for example, will lead to a sharp surge in the commodity price.
Another major factor supporting the bullish view for soft commodity is that the affluent generation in emerging economies has started to consume more dairy products and meat. The high grain-to-meat conversion ratio means that much more grains such as corn and soyabean must be produced to feed the cows and poultry to generate the required animal protein for the affluent society.
As such, buying commodity, be it hard or soft, is a compelling investment idea. There are several local unit trust funds offering this exposure.
(g) Weaker US$
US is expected to start printing huge amounts of money to feed the financial system and to fund its stimulus packages. With interest rate having fallen to its floor, US has used up its last card of monetary policy. Since interest rate cannot fall below zero, the only way to prevent a depression is to flood the market with more money. The low interest rate will make fund raising via bond issuance difficult. Bond has been the traditional source of funding to finance growing US trade deficits. With reduced foreign purchase of US bonds, the only way is for US to print more money.
Additional supply of greenback will only weaken US$ simply based on the economics of supply and demand. Even the fear of more US$ flooding the market and her inability to raise money through selling more bonds to foreign buyers will exert downward pressure on the greenback.
It is not inconceivable that one day investors will abandon US$ and head for the exit. When that happens, more investors will join the flight as they do not want to be left behind. As such, it is highly probable US$ will weaken soon. When that happens global financial landscape will change again.
Commodity such as crude oil will be the first to take the excuse to move up. Then other currencies will appreciate vis-à-vis US$ — some will gain more, others will gain less. The outflow of US funds has to find a home. Some will go into government bonds and some will end up in equity market.
There are many ways to take advantage of a weaker US$ — buy commodity funds, increase investment in equity funds or hold non-US currencies.
The reversal of flow of money from US will benefit Asian market which is probably the only region which is still financially strong yet without much toxic debts and still has some growth due to improving domestic spending. With stock prices having fallen by 50% or more and currencies by 10%-20%, Asian market has become very attractive to foreign funds. As such, when the US$ starts to weaken, the outflow of US funds will benefit Asian stocks the most. One investment idea is to buy Asian unit trust funds such as Greater China fund, Asia-Pacific emerging market fund and country ETF which are listed in US, Hong Kong and Singapore.
(h) Safe haven gold
When US$ weakens, gold is perceived as the safe haven, at least in the eyes of most people. In a way, gold moves in inverse correlation to US$.
After the collapse of commodities in July 2008 led by the plunge of crude oil price, most commodity prices fell in tandem, except for gold and precious metals which fell less. Gold price has been holding firm despite weaker demand following the weaker global economy and an overhang of supply from the disposal by several central banks over the last few years when gold price was rising. After gold price crossed 1980 high of US$834/troy oz, more people are convinced that gold is a good medium to preserve capital.
Unlike other forms of investment, there is no income for gold investment. The only form of return is capital gain. If gold price does not go up, there is an opportunity cost. Fortunately, with the recent sharp cut in interest rates, the opportunity cost is low. The low interest rate will remain so for the next few years. When interest rates become high again one day, the attractiveness of gold may lose its shine.
Investors wanting to have exposure to gold could buy gold jewellery. But the mark-up in workmanship at the point of purchase as well as the abatement of up to 15% at the point of disposal, make jewellery a bad investment medium. A more efficient way is to invest in gold savings account offered by some local banks. They come in smaller denomination and can be purchased or disposed easily. The transaction cost of 4%-5% is still reasonable for longer term investment. The main advantage of this form of gold investment is convenience and there is no maintenance required to keep the gold in a safe place.
For more serious investors, purchase of Gold ETF (GLD) is much cheaper. GLD is the world’s largest exchange-traded gold fund backed by gold bullion with market capitalisation of about US$15 billion. It is quoted at several major stock exchanges including Singapore, Hong Kong and New York. It is quoted at 1/10th of an ounce. Transaction cost could be as low as 0.4%. The ETF does not invest in gold mining companies whose share price may behave differently from that of gold and they are not suitable to mimic the performance of gold.
(i) Forced-sale properties
In every crisis, there are bound to be opportunities in the property market. Some investors could be forced to sell some properties at distressed price. Unlike during the Asian financial crisis where interest cost was high and banks were pulling back loans, present financial crisis will only affect those who are over-geared or those who are forced to sell their properties to cover losses in other areas. Forced-selling of properties in this crisis will not be substantial except in areas where a bubble has developed over the last few years. The most obvious are properties around KLCC area.
With more cash-rich investors eyeing distressed properties, competition is likely to be keen for those who intend to have a hand in it.
(j) Bearish investment
With the deteriorating economy, increased unemployment, reduced consumer spending and higher defaults by corporations, banks are likely to curb lending. There is also a possibility that the expected recovery of the global economy by early next year may not materialise. Cash could be the safest place to be but with the current low interest rates, one can also look at investing in short-biased hedge funds which profited from forward sales of stocks and financial instruments. Another alternative is to invest in managed futures which returned double-digit gains last year from shorting commodities, currencies and stocks. They are likely to perform well again if the financial markets continue to be volatile this year.
The above investment ideas are just some of the suggestions. Some of them may happen, others may not happen or may be delayed. Each outcome is like a bet as it may or may not happen. Each outcome carries with it a probability. If one believes in an investment idea, then some allocation can be made on the bet. An investor may adopt a number of “bets” to spread out the risk. The amount to allocate to an investment idea will very much depend on the belief that the event will happen. Likewise, no allocation should be made on an investment idea if it is believed to be unlikely to happen.
An allocation to an investment idea should not be made in the form of one bullet investment. Several tranches could be made to spread out the investment in order to mitigate timing risk. For example, if one intends to allocate 10% of asset in gold, the investment could be made in three tranches, say one-third every two months.
Ang has 20 years’ experience in research and investment. He is currently the chief investment officer of Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd.
Theedgedaily
| ETFs prove resilient in bear market |
In 2008, fund flows largely went into cash and out of financial products. But despite the doom and gloom, funds continued to flow into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
“Reports over the past few months indicate that net investment flows into ETFs have been positive (compared with actively-managed funds with net outflows) despite the overall market having gone through the turbulent period,” says Zainal Izlan Zainal Abidin, CEO and director of i-VCAP Management Sdn Bhd, the company managing Syariah-compliant MyETF. Lipper has reported that Europe, there was a net sales outflow of US$125 billion from mutual funds in the first eight months of 2008, while net sales of ETFs were a positive US$48 billion. “ETFs have proven popular with investors in both bear and bull markets. According to Morgan Stanley’s ETFs Global Review — Year End 2007, ETFs’ global assets grew from US$105 billion in 2001 to over US$797 billion by end-2007, representing a remarkable annual growth rate of 39%,” says Jane Leung, senior director of product, iShares Asia ex-Japan, Barclays Global Investors.The ETFs have performed well as an industry thus far because there are a lot of substitutions going on, says Joseph Ho, managing director and head of ETF sales and marketing at Societe Generale. “There may not be new money (being injected into the market). Instead, money that is exiting individual stocks and traditional unit trust funds is being redeployed into ETFs.”
Why the popularity?
Introduced this millennium, ETFs have sprouted like mushrooms. Leung says ETF assets under management have grown rapidly since the fi rst US ETF was launched in 1993. Ho says ETFs have one well and are continuing to do well because of liquidity and transparency. “It’s also because of the simplicity of diversification with the ETFs — if you want to have some exposure, you want to hold the whole market rather than a single stock in times like these.”
ETFs are similar to conventional unit trust funds in that they can provide diversifi cation with a smaller investment amount, and enable investors to play whole sectors, indices or selected commodities such as gold. Says Ho: “We have gone through a very difficult and confusing year [2008]. Instead of focusing on what to buy this year, go back and look at a more diversified portfolio. A year ago, you would not have been able to invest in gold conveniently. However, these are all possible now in Singapore and Hong Kong. There were a lot of movements within the ETF markets in general. Prior to 2008, the most popular ones were emerging market ETFs but now they [investors] are going into bond ETFs, currency ETFs, broad market ETFs covering regions and countries, and even commodity ETFs.”
Christopher Soon, an institutional consulting director with a major bank in Singapore, recommends investing in ETFs that have exposure to the entire country’s indices such as the iShares MCSI UK Index, iShares MCSI Australia Index, iShares MCSI UK Index and iShares MCSI Malaysia Index. “This way, Malaysian investors do not need to be savvy about ETFs — they just need to be bullish on the country that they are investing in.”
ETFs also come with minimal costs and access to up-to-the-minute trading times, which means that investors can also be more nimble. However, note that they also come with their fair share of risks. For one, there is investment risk in its underlying securities. Soon gives an example. “A fi nancial-sector ETF would be totally exposed to the sell-off in banks and financials. Even a well-diversified index like the S&P would have suff ered versus an active manager who may have decided to underweight financials and overweight defensive sectors like consumer staples during a recession.”Tracking errors happen when the performance of the ETF does not mimic the performance of thebenchmark index it is tracking. “Even if the index is down 50%, the ETFs should also be down 50%. Tracking error happens when the benchmark is down 50% but the ETFs are down 60% instead. Something is wrong,” says Zainal. “It could be the manager’s fault or something else. In any case, that is the risk. Tracking errors will occur — but the job of the manager is to minimise them,” he adds.
As the ETFs are openly traded on an exchange as opposed to being valued at the end of the day as with unit trust funds, says Soon, they can suffer or benefit from investor sentiment as the traded price differs from their actual net asset value (NAV).
Investing in ETFs
While there are only three listed ETFs on the local stock market, investing in international ETFs is possible. You can ask a local broker for its overseas counterpart, who would be able to perform the trading and transactions, says Zainal. “Investors will still need to open a local version of the CDS account - it’s just like trading on Bursa Malaysia. But there are [other] things [to consider], like settlement issues. For instance, if you’re buying a Hong Kong ETF, you would have to settle in HK dollars and if your funds are in Malaysia, you have to arrange for a remittance or transfer from there.
“For smaller retail investors, it might be too cumbersome, but for those who have international investments to start with, it can be part and parcel of their investments.”Before you buy an ETF, there are some things you need to note. Eric Wong, head of research, Hong Kong at Thomson Reuters Lipper, says retail investors will need to look at, among other things, the assets (stocks, bonds or commodities) the ETFs hold or the indices they track; the investment management style of the ETFs (active or passive); the track record of the financial institutions in designing and developing the ETFs, which includes evaluating the academic qualification and experience of the personnel; and the turnover of investment personnel at the financial institutions, which could result in insuffi cient supervision and subject them to a higher probability of loose management. “Compare the historical and forward fundamental parameters such as price-to-earnings and priceto-book ratios and study the technical trading parameters such as price behaviour pattern, moving averages or Relative Strength Index of the ETFs to determine their entry and exit,” says Wong.The ETF’s liquidity is also important in order to speed up transactions. Wong says the liquidity of an ETF is not only reflected by its trading volume and bid-ask spread (a narrower spread usually means higher liquidity) at the stock exchange, it is also judged by the liquidity of its underlying securities or the securities that make up the index the ETF tracks.
“Th is is because ETFs sometimes allow their investors, usually institutional investors, to redeem large blocks of the ETF units for a basket of the underlying assets [securities] of the ETFs, or alternately, exchange the underlying securities for the ETF units. “Thus, the liquidity of these underlying securities also determines the liquidity of the ETF and needs to be considered,” he adds.
Lastly, watch out for those fees. Just like unit trust funds, management fees vary for different types of ETFs. “Some underlying securities are easier to access than others. If you want those that are more diffi cult to access, be prepared to pay more,” says Zainal.
