Friday, November 06, 2009

赌博及投机

“投机是将一点小钱,转为大钱的方式,但它可能不算成功;投资,则是成功的方式,因为它避免把更多的金钱,变为小钱。”~费德萧微特

赌博行为

许多研究人员相信,人有好赌的天性,所以就算我们需冒不必要的险也甘之如饴。

今 天我们来谈谈“赌博者之误”(gambler fallacy),它和“代表性直觉”(representative heuristic)息息相关。人们会掉入赌博失利的陷阱,主要是因为他会以这样的逻辑做猜测:“我已经连输3晚,今天我一定会赚大钱!这些人相信,其结 果受运气因素、技术或其他特别情况所控制。

但这是不正确的判断,就赌博而言,之前发生的情况与正要发生的情况无关联,且不会对未来造成影响。

举例来说,若抛掷50仙硬币出现“头”的几率共有6次,下一次会不会就出现“花”?若你认为出现“花”的几率很高,甚至高出50%,那你就掉入了赌博失利陷阱。

抛掷硬币其实是项“公平”的游戏,之所以这么说,是因为出现“头”或“花”的几率,一直都是50%,而且每一次抛掷的结果,和之前都无关联,之前抛掷的结果也不会影响目前或之后出现“头”或“花”的几率。

许多人相信,一只股票已经连续起了好几天,就不太可能再攀升。同样的,他们也会持有一只已经跌了一段时间的股票,因为他们相信,该股不会再滑落了。

投机

根据投资大师-沃伦巴菲特之师--本杰明葛汗的说法,没根据“安全的回酬”或“合理的回筹”进行的活动,就被称为“投机”而非“投资”。

著名经济学家约翰迈那也曾说过,投机是一项测试市场心理的活动。

投机者在市场比比皆是,而且投机方式五花八门,包括:产业、油价、货币、原产品、凭单、股票等,只要有机会赚快钱,便有投机活动。

因此,投机者是根据目前的市场情况及市场心态,预测未来的价格走势。

索罗斯洞悉这样的概念,并警告众人成为投机客的风险,他说:“对和错并不重要。最重要的,是你在对的时刻,赚了多少金钱;错时又损失了多少。”

至于我,则选择成为一名理智的投资者,因为我知道若只根据猜测或谣言买卖股票,将会换来难以预测、短期而且无保障的结果。

南洋商报

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Precious metals as alternative investments

PRECIOUS metals are considered alternative investments for investors to preserve wealth as they rush for safety amidst the decline of financial asset values. Precious metal resources are rare and finite therefore, have high investment value. The metals include gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium.

Gold is the most popular investment of all the precious metals due to its characteristics and the roles it played throughout human history. Gold is the oldest universal currency and has been used as a medium of exchange for thousands of years. Over the centuries, gold is appreciated for its beauty, rarity and near indestructibility. This article will focus on precious metals as well as gold in particular.

Benefits of investing inprecious metals and gold

There are many reasons for investors to invest in precious metals and particularly gold. Some of the key advantages are as follows:


* Precious metals offer good diversification opportunities

Investments in precious metals are not closely correlated to stocks and bonds.

For instance, gold helps in portfolio diversification because it is generally lowly correlated with other assets such as stocks and bonds.

"Asset diversification through assets that have low or negative correlations is essential in the wealth management process. Investors diversify to reduce risk in the portfolio and to increase returns, just like the saying 'don't put all your eggs into one basket'. To diversify, investors may put their money in several types of investments to minimise the impact of one type of asset on the overall performance of the total portfolio," said Datin Maznah Mahbob, chief executive officer, Funds Management Division of AmInvestment Bank Group.

The chart shows that the gains in gold price were higher than those of the S&P 500 Index and the MSCI World Index in the past four years. During the global financial meltdown last year, gold managed to hold its value and recorded a positive gain of 3 per cent as compared to -42 per cent and -38 per cent for the MSCI World Index and S&P 500 Index respectively. The same could be seen when the stock market crash occurred in 2002 in the US and Europe.

* Potential price rise for precious metals due to an imbalance supply-demand relationship

"There is an imbalance of supply and demand for precious metals including gold and platinum. The increasing demand for gold, particularly in Asia, could not be matched by gold supply," Maznah said.

In 2008, global gold demand of 3,804 tonnes exceeded the supply of only 3,512 tonnes. Total gold mine supply accounted for 2,064 tonnes or 59 per cent of the total (Source: World Gold Council, August 2009). There has not been much increase in gold supply due to expensive production cost for the metal and the limit in gold sales by central banks in recent years.

Global gold jewellery demand was recorded at 2,186 tonnes or 58 per cent of the total demand last year (Source: World Gold Council, August 2009).

Over the past ten years, gold demand for jewellery, coins and medals made up around 83 per cent of global demand (Source: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research, August 2009).

There is also mismatch in demand and supply for platinum. In 2008, global platinum demand was 6.35 million ounces as compared to platinum supply of 5.97 million ounces, based on Johnson Matthey's "Platinum 2009" market review. The supply dropped by 9.5 per cent primarily due to production problems in South Africa including interruptions to electricity supply, smelter shutdowns and bad weather.

Going forward, the price of precious metals is expected to increase since low supply could not accommodate the increasing demand.

* Gold for long-term inflation protection

Inflation is an increase in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. It decreases the amount of goods or services that consumers can buy. Inflation reduces purchasing power of consumers due to currencies losing their value.

"Gold could maintain its long-term value through the market cycles. Therefore gold is preferred as a hedge against inflation as it could keep up with the inflation rate," Maznah said.

For example, the price of a limousine is equivalent to about 5 kilograms of gold today. Comparatively, the same amount of gold was required for a limousine 50 years ago although the price of the luxury vehicle has increased many times.

* Gold is a good hedge for US dollar

Gold is considered a good protection against depreciation in currency as the value of gold does not depreciate.

"Gold is an effective hedge against fluctuations in the US dollar, which is the world's main trading currency. There is a negative correlation between gold price and the US dollar. This relationship is consistent over time and across exchange rates," Maznah added.


* Gold is a store of value

Money or currencies may lose their function as a store of value during inflation. On the contrary, gold, silver, real estate and other stores of value have shown their consistency over time. Demand for gold increases during political, social or economic distress because the value of gold retains in most situations.

Gold is the only currency in the world that is not subject to competitive devaluation, debasement (the practice of lowering the value of currency) or the excessive promises of overspent governments. It is stable and does not rely on obligation for repayment by any government or corporation.

Conclusion

Investors have the options of making direct or indirect investments in precious metals to enjoy the many benefits of this asset class and to ride out the storms of a volatile market. Precious metals generally perform well during periods of rising inflation, heightened financial market volatility and geopolitical event risk.

Thus, this asset class remains an investment tool of choice for wealth preservation and portfolio diversification.
*This article is contributed by the Funds Management Division of AmInvestment Bank Group.

定期存款多樣化 門檻高 膽要大 本要夠

到定期存款(簡稱“定存”),你想到什么?

少得可憐的利息收入應該是第一聯想,穩健固定收入的吸引力料被拋到九霄雲外。

不過,國內定存已非只是定存般死板簡單,市場湧現琳瑯滿目的定存洐生產品,添加許多額外投資元素在內。最吸引人的莫過于超過2.5%的耀眼標題,但天下真有白吃的午餐嗎?

千萬別看漏了最下方的“附帶條 款與條件”!

市場上的定存產品多不勝數,但大資本的高門檻高往往讓小市民望而卻步。
國家銀行自去年11的月中開始,已3度下調隔夜官方利率(OPR),從原本3.5%調低到目前2%。

對于許多定存客戶來說,高企利息收入早已成為歷史。

畢竟每每國行宣佈升息時,銀行隨即調高基本借貸率(BLR,基貸率);但若國行降息,存款利息卻首當其衝。

因此,眼看擁有固定利息收入的定存魅力大不如前,應變速度甚快的銀行紛紛推出定存的相關產品。

除了傳統定存,業者為自家旗下的定存添加額外投資元素,可包含單一外幣、多元貨幣或單位信託投資,並以超高利息水平企圖打動消費者。

認請目標要求

縱觀國內銀行提供的外幣定存,儘管標榜逾2.5%的誘人利息,但相對進入門檻非常高。

例如每月存放額至少5000令吉、特定存放期限、特定貨幣供選擇等,“一份耕耘,一份收獲”的道理發揮得淋漓盡致,沒有高額資本的消費者始終無福消受。

國內大部分銀行皆提供外幣定存,惟消費者不得不謹慎其中陷阱。
邁利財務規劃董事經理張梅香回應《中國報》說,如今國內定存產品琳瑯滿目,眼花撩亂的消費者最終必須認請本身的目標和要求。

她認為,無論定存或相關產品,消費者做出任何決定前都必須非常了解產品的特質和風險。

“在于銀行立場來說,拼業績、達到銷售目標乃至高無上,難免銷售過程中存有漏洞和不透明。”

再者,雖說定存客戶可從具有投資元素的定存賺取回酬,卻不能忘記天下沒有風險的投資,加上銀行征收各式相關費用,恐怕到時“賠了夫人又折兵”,真是得不償失。

志必得證券(Jupiter Securities)研究主管馮廷秀指出,納入外幣的定存就像投資般存有一定的風險,特別是普通消費者難以追蹤匯率走勢。

“若非特定需求如孩子在海外深造或常常出國,一般來說消費者持有外幣定存,未必真能坐享高利息收入的好處。”

國內商業銀行利率水平(%)
銀行 截至2009年6月15日的定存利息(月份)(不包括特別促銷) 基貸率
1*
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
艾芬銀行
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.50
5.50#
安聯銀行
2.00
5.55
大馬銀行
2.00
2.10
2.15
2.20
5.55
盤谷銀行
2.00
2.05
2.10
2.20
5.55#
大馬美國銀行
2.00
5.55#
大馬中國銀行
2.00
5.55
大馬三菱東京日聯銀行
2.00
5.25
聯昌銀行
2.00
2.10
5.55
花旗銀行
2.00
5.60#
大馬德意志銀行
2.00
5.55
國貿銀行
2.00
5.55#
豐隆銀行
2.00
5.55#
大馬匯豐銀行
2.00
5.55
摩根大通銀行
2.00
5.25
馬銀行
2.00
2.05
2.10
5.55
大馬華僑銀行
2.00
5.55#
大眾銀行
2.00
2.05
2.10
5.55
興業銀行
2.00
5.55
大馬渣打銀行
2.00
5.55#
豐業銀行
2.00
5.55
皇家蘇格蘭銀行
2.00
5.25
大馬大華銀行
2.00
5.55
* 最低存放額5000令吉 # 主要貸款率與基貸率相同鎮鎮 資料來源:大馬銀行公司ABM)

政府銀行相爭 消費者錢牽何處?

公眾踴躍搶購大馬信託基金,除了獲政府擔保,最重要是投資門檻低。
政府和銀行都瞄準消費者持有的優渥現金?

馮廷秀說,定存利息偏低導致消費者不願把錢存進銀行,可觀的數額讓政府和銀行都“垂涎三尺”。

他指出,政府開銷龐大,頻頻自資金市場籌資,消費者也開始轉向政府推出的債券和基金等。

“因此,銀行也使出混身解數,推出繁多的定存促銷,爭取消費者青睞。”

政府早前推出的50億令吉人民儲蓄回教債券(Sukuk Simpanan Rakyat)、33億3000萬令吉的大馬信託基金(ASM)及2020宏願信託基金(ASW2020),都在公開發售的首天,便被公眾踴躍搶購。

這些由政府擔保及發行的投資產品,為人民提供穩定回酬投資。

其中最重要因素莫過于它不是一項大數額投資,滿18歲的大馬公民,只要擁有至少1000令吉,就可以投資上述信託基金。

命名誤導 結構存款非存款

提到存款時,投資者或許聽過結構性存款(structured deposit)一詞,但對它所知不多。

結構性存款雖然用上“存款”這個字眼,但實際上它是結合存款與期權(Option)的金融產品,絕對不是存款。

因此,結構性存款與大眾存放金錢在銀行戶頭的存款截然不同,投資者絕不可視之為定存,更不應將它當作定存的替代品。

結構性存款擁有多種類型,常見的包括外幣掛鉤存款、股票掛鉤存款及貴金屬掛鉤存款。

銀行業者紛紛使出混身解數,多元化定存產品吸引消費者,特別是持有優渥現金的年長者。
投資者選擇結構性存款前,除了知道潛在回酬,也必須清楚了解它的運作機制、風險及轉讓限制等。

銀行大搶錢 誘人高利促銷

縱觀國內銀行提供的定存,除了以傳統定存為主,大部分國內外銀行皆提供外幣定存,外幣選擇也大同小異,概況美元、英鎊、澳元、港元、新元、泰銖、日圓等。

馬銀行(MAYBANK,1155,主要板金融)旗下5項定存,其中3項為回教定存。

以盈利分享(Mudharabah)為基礎的回教特別投資戶頭,存放期限1個月到12個月,但最低存放額高達5萬令吉。

大眾銀行(PBBANK,1295,主要板金融)早前推出外幣定期存款Power Invest促銷,連續4次存放可享有高達12%年利率。

不過,最低每月存放額必須達5000令吉、在單張收據,以及連續存放4個月,而且回酬受制于外幣匯率的波動。

聯昌銀行(CIMB Bank)推出幾項定存促銷,為期6個月的定存享有2.3%年利率,但最低存放額5萬令吉。

該行專為年長者而設的1個月定存利率也是2.3%,最低存放額5萬令吉。

大眾銀行和聯昌銀行的外幣定存,最低存放額則必須相等于1萬令吉的幣值。

大馬銀行(AMBANK)定存更包含單位信託投資元素,為期1個月最低存放額5000令吉,3到12個月最低存放額則是1000令吉,並將投資在旗下單位信託基金。

外資銀行方面,大馬華僑銀行(OCBC)最近展開為期88天的定存促銷。

最低存放額2萬令吉的首28天年利率達2.5%,后60天則2.05%;超過10萬令吉存放額的首28天利率高達2.8%,后60天也是2.05%。

外幣定存高利 小心暗藏陷阱

定存利率偏低,固定利息收入的定存魅力早已大不如前。
外幣定存開始湧現,儘管消費者趨之若鶩,卻不能不防暗藏的陷阱,包括特定加碼幣別、高存款門檻,以及限期又限量。

銀行往往定下特定的加碼幣別,未必是流通性較高的美元或英鎊。

若相關外幣在國內用途有限,加上市場流通性不強,市面上又較少連結相關外幣的投資商品,投資者到時要脫手管道非常有限。

此外,定存加碼門檻高,成為一般投資者進場外幣定存的另一個考慮要素。

加上各銀行推出定存高利促銷,限期又限量,存放期限短則1到3個月,最長不超過1年,而且有些存款還設有上限。

投資者若想投資外幣定存,不得不留意這些限制,以免賺了高利息,卻賠掉存款解約、折扣的利息損失等。

投資產品借名存款 難辨購買風險

銀行把投資產品借名存款,導致投資者難以識別,早不是冰山一角個案。

匯豐銀行今年就在北京,因為把投資產品借名存款,而和一位客戶方先生打起一場官司。

方先生表示自己購買匯豐銀行的“雙利存款”,一個月后存入的17.9萬美元(約60.56萬令吉)和11.1萬加元(約35.18萬令吉)已變成澳元,並虧損34萬人民幣(約16.84萬令吉)。

方先生認為,銀行隱瞞產品真實情況,讓他誤以為“雙利存款”為定存。

一審判決法院駁回方先生的訴訟請求,匯豐銀行無需承擔投資者損失。

此案銀行雖然勝訴,但一些名為“存款”,實際卻具有一定風險的投資產品命名方式,也引起專家和投資者注意。

命名為存款的投資產品,對投資者具有一定的誘導性,使投資者有可能從字面上更容易接受投資產品。

諾貝爾經濟學獎得獎者羅傑梅爾森(Roger Myerson)曾指出,金融機構出現道德風險問題,一部分源自於我們“濫用”了對金融機構的信任。

Chinapress