Saturday, March 27, 2010

分享集: 先处战地者逸

●冯时能 股票研究人

孙子曰:“凡先处战地而待敌者逸(佚),后处战地而趋战者劳”(孙子兵法“虚实篇”)。

(白话译文:孙子说:“凡先到战场等待敌人的就安 逸,后到战场投入战斗的就疲劳。”)

孙子这两句话中最重要的两个字是“逸”和“劳”。“逸”就是安逸,从容不迫;“劳”就是疲劳,疲于奔 命。

甲乙两军对垒,要在一个战场决一死战。甲军提早20天到达战场,有足够的时间了解地形,构筑好工事,作好如何迎击,如何歼敌,如何撤 退等的准备,而士兵又有足够的时间休息,养精蓄锐,以给予敌人以迎头痛击。由于时间充足,他们可以从容不迫地备战,这就是“逸”。

乙军远 道而来,一到战场,士兵已精疲力倦,由于马上就要投入战斗,根本没有时间了解战地形势,更不要说策划战略了,这种打法,兵士疲于奔命,这就是“劳”。

甲 军准备充足,以逸待劳,胜算自然较高。乙军以疲惫之师,仓促作战,胜算自然较低。

利润是战利品

股市就是一个战场,买方和 卖方,就是两支对垒的军队。一方得利,是另一方的损失。例如买方以2令吉买进一只股票,此股涨至3令吉,买方赚1令吉,卖方就损失了1令吉的利润,买方是 胜利者。同样的,如果卖方以5令吉把一只股票卖给买方,股价跌至3令吉,买方亏损2令吉,则卖方是胜利者。

利润,就是买卖两方的战利品, 是买卖两方斗智斗力所要卤获的标的物。

军事之战和股市之战,其实极为相似,都是“凡先处战地而待敌者逸,后处战地而趋战者劳”。

在 股市中,绝大多数的投资者都是“后处战地而趋战者”。

当股市沉静时,他们按兵不动,直到股市狂升,股价大涨时才冲进股市,仓促作战,由于 行动仓促,备战工作不足,结果是屡犯错误,搞到损兵折将,铩羽而归。

他们在股市中抢进杀出,终日提心吊胆,生活在炼狱中,这就是孙子所说 的“劳”。如果“劳”而有获,还算值得,但是,如果劳而无功,不但无功,而且满身刀伤,怎么值得?然而投资者却趋之若鹜,乐此不疲,实在匪夷所思。

其 实,只要投资者改弦易辙,采取孙子所说的方法,先处战地以等待敌人的到来,则不但可以轻而易举的击败来犯的敌人,卤获丰富的战利品,同时又可以过着安逸的 生活。

先处战地而待敌人到来,有两个好处:

1)你有足够的时间,作好战斗的准备。

在股市之战中,你有足 够的时间做好功课,考虑更周密,犯错的机会自然减到最低。

减少错误,等于提高胜算。

2)你可以享受安逸的生活。投资不再 是一件烦恼的事。

那么,要怎样才能做到“先处战地者逸”呢?

很简单,只要做人“有求必应”就可以了。

所 谓“有求必应”就是人家要什么,你就给他什么。

有求必应则发

当股市暴跌时,投资者惊慌失措,他们不计成本,在股市中贱价 售股,要收回资金;这时候,你就顺应他们的要求,给他金钱,接受他的股票。

当公牛发狂,股价涨到离谱的高峰时,人人进场狂追,他们要的是 股票,不要金钱,这时,你就顺应他们的要求,把股票卖给他,接受他的金钱。你这样做,就是有求必应,有求必应的人,就是好人,好人有好心,好心有好报,你 这样做,准会发达。

“有求必应”的做法,其实就是反向。

“先处战地以待敌”其实就是比对手先走一步,这一步可能只是一小 步,但战利品可大得惊人。例如在去年这个时候,金融海啸蹂躏下,股市疮痍满目,如果你在那时买进股票,等于“先处战地”,今天的战利品大得惊人。

获 利时间较长

这种“先处战地”的策略,应用在股票上,效果如响斯应,试举例说明:

1)当经济衰退时,大胆投资,等待经济复 苏。

2)在熊市中,“先处战地”,低价买好股,等待公牛回头。

3)棕油价低沉,买棕油股。

4)钢铁厂生 产过剩,钢材大跌,买钢铁股。

5)夹板价到底,开始回升,买夹板股。

6)受去年金融海啸冲击,一些高价买进原料的建材股 大亏,以后不再发生,今年开始恢复盈利,可买。

7)别人看不起的冷门股,价值被严重低估,可买,等待别人发现它们。

这样 的例子很多,投资者只要养成“先处战地”的思维,应用起来,自然得心应手。

这种策略的缺点,如果也算是缺点的话,就是等待获利的时间较 长,例如夹板价格回暖了,但夹板股的盈利,要一年以后才公布,你必须有等待一两年的耐性,才能得利。

优点是由于买得早,买价常常极低,风 险小,利润高。

时间就是金钱,此言不谬。

南洋商报

李财有方:看不到的钱

●李孙耀

又是缴税的季节了,顺便提醒大家,个人缴交所得税的最后期限是四月底。

有一 位朋友告诉我,他今年得缴交10万令吉的所得税,他问我:有什么方法,可以又赚钱又不必缴交所得税?
我说:有,如果你赚到的钱是看不到的,那么你 就不必缴交所得税了。

他以为我是开玩笑,其实我是认真的,因为我所说的“看不到” 的钱,是指资本增值。

25年前,有一 位朋友以38万令吉的价钱在梳邦买下一间店屋,今天这间店屋的市价已经超过200万令吉。朋友已经退休,他是靠收租过日子,所以并没有打算卖掉店屋,对他 而言,产业增值多出来的百多万就是看不到的钱。

但是,如果朋友想把这笔看不到的钱变成看得到,他还是不需缴税的,因为就算今天他把产业卖 掉,所赚到的钱也是归类为资本增值,而资本增值在马来西亚是不必缴税的。

在马来西亚,工作赚来的钱,商业活动赚来的钱,统统都得缴税,只 有通过资本增值赚来的钱不必缴税,而资本增值只可以从一个管道得来,那就是投资。

没有投资就没有机会享受到资本增值。

把 钱放在房地产或股票都算是投资,所以买卖房地产和股票赚到的钱都无需缴税。

外国眼中天堂

怪不得有一位外国朋友告诉我:你 们的国家真的是有钱人的天堂,买卖股票和房地产都不必缴税,甚至连死后都没有遗产税。

所以我们一定要做有钱人,千万别做穷人。

要 做有钱人就要懂得去赚那个看不到的钱,不能只一味的去赚看得到的钱,薪水越来越高,生意越做越大,这些都是看得到的钱,税收局就是等着瓜分这些钱,我们的 血汗钱。

缴税是国民的义务,所以我们不需要害怕缴税,股神巴菲特曾经说过:缴税是不会令人破产的。这个道理我们都懂,但是股神自己是否也 乐意缴税呢?

巴菲特从1962年就开始买进柏克夏(Berkshire Hathaway), 当时柏克夏的股价只是8美元,到了1970年巴菲特控制了29%的股权正式入主BRK,巴菲特写给股东的信就是从这一年开始。巴菲特的企业王国就是建立在 柏克夏,他通过柏克夏控制了许许多多的公司,其中包括可口可乐。

过去的40年,巴菲特不曾卖出柏克夏的股票,所以他无须缴交任何的资本增 值税,而BRK在他掌控下也从未发过任何股息,所以也无须缴交股息的税。今天BRK的股价高达124000美元,比起1962年的8美元,已经增值了1万 5500倍!(已经超过13个番)。如果巴菲特现在要卖出BRK那个资本增值税肯定是一个天文数字。

资本增值免税

可惜, 没有人会知道这数目是多少了,因为巴菲特已经决定,等他百年以后,他所持有的柏克夏将会全部捐给慈善机构,也就是说,什么资本增值税,遗产税,统统都不必 缴交了,从这一点就可以看出巴菲特是多么的精明。

缴税是我们的义务,但是,我们也应该学一学巴菲特的精明,既然马来西亚有这么一条优厚的 条规:资本增值可以免税。我们就得好好的利用它,要不然真的是对不起自己了。

南洋商报

Dividend-paying companies


Despite investing in profit-making companies, a lot of investors have been complaining that they are not getting the desired returns from the companies that they have invested in.

One of the main reasons is that these companies usually pay very low dividends or no dividends to their investors.

Hence, even though these companies make good profits from their businesses, they are not sharing the profits with their minority investors.

Companies that pay good dividends to their investors imply that the major shareholders of these companies are willing to share their wealth with minority investors.

Given that minority investors have no control over these companies, they have only two sources of returns from their investments, namely dividend returns and capital gains.

If the companies refuse to reward their investors with good dividends, then investors need to make sure that they buy low and sell high in order to get capital gains.

Warren Buffett proposes one concept, which is called the one-dollar premise - for every dollar profit that a company makes, it either pays one dollar dividend to its shareholders or if that dollar is being retained, it needs to bring additional one dollar market value.

Companies with good management will always try to maximize the wealth of their investors.

The following table will show the importance of dividends to an investor.

Assuming you have invested in Company A with an average cost of RM15.

Company A generates earnings per share (EPS) of RM1.00 with price-earnings ratio (PER) of 15 times and pay out 80% of its profits as dividends or dividend per share of RM0.80.

Hence, with the purchase price of RM15, the dividend yield (DY) is 5.3%.

We also assume that Company A has a constant PER of 15 times and dividend payout ratio of 80% for the next 20 years.

Annual growth rate of EPS is 8% based on our country’s average nominal GDP growth rate of 8%.

For the first 10-year period, given that our original cost of investment is fixed at RM15, our dividend yield will be getting higher and higher.

For example, first year DY of 5.3% is computed based on DPS of RM0.80 divided by RM15.

And second year DY of 5.8% is calculated based on DPS of RM0.86 (RM0.80 x 1.08) divided by the same original purchase price of RM15.0.

As the company’s businesses continue to grow and generate higher profits, as long as the company practices a fixed dividend payout policy (our example is based on a fixed dividend payout ratio of 80%), investors’ DY will increase.

At Year 10, given that our purchase price remains the same at RM15, with a DPS of RM1.60, our DY is 10.7% (1.60/15.0).

Thus, the average DY for the first 10-year period is 7.7%.

Coupled with the annual capital gain of 8% (the share price has grown by annual growth rate of 8% from RM15 to RM29.99), investors will generate an annual total returns rate of 15.7% (7.7% + 8%)!

If we keep this stock for another 10-year period, our next 10-year annual total return is 24.7% (16.7% + 8%)!

From here, we can see that if we have invested in good companies that always reward their investors with very high dividend payments, our returns will be huge if we hold it long term.

Normally, consumer-based companies and companies that do not need high capital expenditures will be able to reward shareholders with good dividend payments.

Besides, major shareholders must be willing to share their profits with their investors through good dividend payments.

  • Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting.

  • Thestar

    Friday, March 26, 2010

    The 9 prosperity stocks

    Written by A report by Phillip Capital Management


    We have discovered nine stocks that recorded continuous growth in pre-tax profit for the past 10 years and are at least listed for nine years on Bursa Malaysia Securities. These nine stocks are Guinness Anchor Bhd, Hock Seng Lee Bhd (HSL), KPJ Healthcare Bhd, Aeon Co (M) Bhd, QL Resources Bhd, Top Glove Corporation Bhd, Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd (F&N), Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd and LPI Capital Bhd.

    There are limitations to our stock selection methodology which we have considered.

    The qualified stocks selected do not necessary mean they will continue to do well in future as it depends on the management, core competencies and the competitive environment etc.

    The purpose of this report is to allow investors to gain an insight into stocks which stood the test of time and recorded continuous profitability each year without fail.

    We hope from our analysis, investors can understand the business model, core competencies and other winning edge that these stocks possess for them to prosper over the past 10 years and hopefully they continue to perform in the future if the traits for their success remain.

    We have done some strict selection criteria using data from Bloomberg and an analysis of the selected stocks’ winning formula. From all the stocks listed on Bursa Securities, we select only those that are listed for at least nine years and recorded continuous positive growth in pre-tax profit for the past 10 years.

    Out of this criteria, only nine stocks qualified. Out of these nine qualified stocks, three were recommended by us in 2009.

    In addition, we found that out of the nine stocks, only five stocks recorded continuous growth in Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation). They are Kossan, F&N, QL, Top Glove and possibly LPI. In LPI’s case, there is no Ebitda measure as Ebitda is not applicable for financial stocks.

    The stock price volatility is calculated from the standard deviation of the movement in prices of the stock on a monthly basis for the past 10 years up to Dec 31, 2009. All computations are adjusted for bonus and rights issues.

    From our analysis, we discovered that all the nine Prosperity Stocks have recorded an average compounded annual growth return (CAGR) of 16.1% in revenue and 19.5% CAGR in pretax profit.

    Almost all the stocks’ pretax profit CAGR is higher than their respective revenue CAGR, implying the benefit from economies of scale and cost efficiencies as the companies’ businesses grew.

    Further, we noticed that the price CAGR for most stocks has gone ahead of their respective pretax profit CAGR, except for Kossan, HSL, KPJ and QL which means that there is more catching-up for these four stocks going forward.

    Among the nine stocks selected, two are rubber glove producers. Kossan tops the list in profit growth (+38%).

    Top Glove performed well in both profit growth (+33.2% pa) and price appreciation (+50.2% pa). QL also did well with compound growth exceeding 20% which is the target set by the management. Another strong performer is LPI. If we reinvest all the dividends of LPI, the compound gain of the stock is also as good as that of QL.

    Other than blue chips like Guinness and F&N, other blue chips did not pass our screening. Although the other seven stocks are mid-caps and are not generally regarded as blue chips, they definitely qualified for light blue for the time being.


    Limitations to the analysis
    - The obvious one would be using profitability as a measure as this is subject to distortion via creative accounting practices to smooth out any deterioration in respective companies’ pretax profit. However, it is arguable that this can be done consistently over a long time frame of 10 years, therefore in a way this limitation is mitigated.

    - Non-recurring items like gains/losses on disposals of assets or investments not excluded from the pretax profit measure may distort the selection of stocks based on profitability alone.

    - Profitability may not be cash flow as it includes non-cash items like depreciation, provisions, bad debt writeback etc. A business that is profitable may not have the cash to repay its debts. Healthy cash flow is vital for a business’ survival. Nevertheless, considering the fact that the qualified companies are still around and growing strong despite the dotcom crisis in 2001 and the recent 2008-2009 financial crisis, indicates strong sustainability of these companies’ operations with healthy cash flow generating ability. All of the nine stocks are paying reasonable dividends.

    - The analysis only takes into account companies that have minimum nine years’ listing track record which means companies that have profitability growing each year, but only listed less than nine years are not included. Some of the good stocks excluded due to their short-listing history include Dayang Enterprise Bhd and Aeon Credit Service Bhd.

    - One stock which missed the 10-year impeccable records is Mah Sing Group Bhd as the company incurred losses in FY2000.

    - There are a few stocks which also missed the 10-year track record, due mainly to the recent financial crisis that caused a dip in their profits in 2009. These stocks are United Plantations Bhd, Bonia Corporation Bhd, Harrisons Holdings (M) Bhd, DiGi.Com Bhd and CB Industrial Product Holding Bhd.


    Conclusion

    The qualified stocks listed in Table 1 do not necessarily mean they are the best stocks to invest for the future despite their continuous growth in profitability in the past. We are quite confident that they will continue to excel in the future. From the consensus forward price-to-earnings (PE), valuations of these nine stocks are reasonable, meaning they are still good for investment as a whole. — March 11, 2010

    Aeon
    Aeon is basically the superstore and shopping centre operator under the famous brand name of Jusco that retails a broad range of goods from clothing to household goods and earns rental income and management fees from the malls they own or manage. Aeon is led by a group of experienced management. Some of them have worked in the Japanese parent company, Aeon Co Ltd for more than 20 years bringing with them extensive Japanese expertise.

    Core competencies

    Aeon has more than 20 years’ operating history in Malaysia. Its operating outlets are mainly in densely populated suburban areas ensuring Jusco of a sustainable demand.

    Aeon is unique from its peers because its market segment is more towards the middle-income consumer group rather than competing with many retail hypermarket operators like Tesco, Giant and Carrefour which focus on the bargain-hunting market segment.

    Although Aeon’s closest competitors are Isetan, Parkson and Metrojaya, the management distincts itself by managing or owning the entire shopping mall instead of just selling merchandise. This not only provides the company another source of income but also allows the creation of synergies between various tenants to create a shoppers’ paradise, catering for all walks of life. To succinctly put it, a one-stop recreational shopping avenue for Jusco visitors.

    Aeon generally does not operate in the city; it prefers established residential areas with ample parking facilities. By collaborating with property developers, they have managed to gain first mover advantage to locate their malls in popular housing areas. Aeon’s success stories from this strategy are evident from 1Utama, Equine Park, IOI Puchong etc.

    Comment
    We recommended Aeon in July 2009 at the price of RM4.44 which has since gone up by 9.9%. We further reiterate our long-term buy call on Aeon due to further growth expected from Aeon as long as there are new townships to be developed in Malaysia and as Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) continues to grow positively along with better economic outlook.

    F&N
    F&N, a subsidiary of Singapore-listed Fraser and Neave Ltd, manufactures and distributes many popular beverage brand names from Coca-Cola and its own house brand, Seasons. Recently, F&N was awarded the exclusive distributorship and marketing of the popular energy drink, Red Bull.

    In addition, it has been manufacturing and distributing famous dairy products under the brand names of F&N, Magnolia, Daisy and Farmhouse. Apart from manufacturing and distributing beverages and dairy products F&N via its subsidiary, Malaya Glass Products, is a leading producer of glass packaging containers in the Asian region. From its old landbanks, F&N also dabbles in property development and investment. Besides Nestle, F&N is the only other blue-chip food and beverage counter listed on Bursa Malaysia.

    Core competencies
    F&N has a very strong brand name in the food and beverage industry in the region. Due to its reputable operating history, consumers have taken comfort in buying F&N products. As the nation grows over time, F&N with its solid brand name also benefits from increased domestic consumption. This is reflected in its steady growth in sales and earnings over the years. In addition, the food and beverage industry is a recession-proof industry; therefore F&N has thus managed to remain resilient throughout the dotcom crash in 2001 and 2008-2009 financial crisis.

    Over the years, F&N has maintained a minimum 70% dividend payout which partly explains the steady share price performance. The high dividend payout did not hinder F&N’s continuous growth.

    Comment

    We have no rating for F&N. However, for investors who like stocks that pay consistent high dividends, F&N is a stock to buy. An important negative point to note is that, come September 2011, F&N’s licence to manufacture and distribute Coca-Cola-related beverages will expire and its financial performance thereon might be affected.

    Guinness
    Guinness needs no introduction as it is a well-known brewery with operations worldwide, of which the Malaysian operation is listed here. The management is well experienced and has specialised expertise, and the board is represented by different nationals, from Britain, New Zealand and even Holland.

    Core competencies
    Guinness speaks for itself loud in the beer market and is one of the dominating brand names in the beer industry, apart from Carlsberg. In Malaysia itself, Guinness controls 57% market share. Under its stable, it produces a few alcoholic beverages with brands like Guinness Stout, Tiger, Heineken, Anchor Smooth, Anchor Strong, Kilkenny, Anglia Shandy and Malta. It appears that Guinness is the first and only brewery in Malaysia to receive the Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) certification and ISO 9001:2000 Quality Certification from Malaysia’s Ministry of Health.

    Another strong point is that although non-Muslims account for 48% of the Malaysian population, Guinness was able to increase its revenue and profitability CAGR of 7.6% and 11%, respectively.

    Similar to F&N, Guinness has maintained minimum dividend payouts of 70% and above in the past which partly explains the strong share price performance. Despite the high dividend payout, it did not hinder Guinness’ continuous growth.

    Comment
    We have no rating for Guinness. However, for investors who like stocks that pay consistently high dividends, Guinness is a stock to buy. In addition, come June 2010 the World Cup will provide Guinness a one-time jump in financial performance. We prefer Guinness to Carlsberg for its ability to gain market share.

    HSL
    HSL is a mid-cap construction company listed since 1996 but with more than 30 years’ experience in land reclamation, marine engineering, civil engineering and construction.

    Core competencies

    Unlike other construction outfits, HSL owns an extensive range of marine and land-based equipment, including multi-million ringgit computerised hydraulic suction dredging facilities. This enables HSL to handle the entire construction process from dredging, civil works and building construction.

    Due to HSL’s reputed expertise and niche in dredging and land reclamation activities, the company was awarded many projects in Sarawak which is its home base. With more developments expected in Sarawak due to the launch of the Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy (SCORE) programme, HSL is in good stead to benefit.

    In addition, HSL possesses a landbank of over 600 acres (243ha) in Sarawak with estimated gross development value (GDV) of RM1.5 billion. The landbank was obtained due to construction contracts completed for the state government. Going forward, property development will emerge as an important source of income for HSL. HSL is one of the few construction companies that command net cash position despite being heavily invested in the latest marine and land-based machinery and equipment, which strongly indicates its efficient cash management. HSL has a sound and proven management as evidenced by the awards won for KPMG/The Edge Shareholder Value Creation Awards for the Construction and Property category and also listed in Bursa Malaysia’s Top 100 for shareholder value creation from 2005 to 2008, respectively.

    Comment
    We recommended HSL in October 2009 at the price of RM1.07 which has since gone up by 27.1%. We further reiterate our buy call for HSL due to the SCORE factor and the huge amount of development budget allocated by the federal government.

    KPJ

    KPJ is the largest private hospital provider in Malaysia with network of 19 hospitals across the country. It also provides pathology and laboratory services, hospital management services, drug and medical distribution along with operating a nursing college.

    Core competencies

    KPJ’s management has the experience in building and commissioning new hospitals and has the reputation of successfully turning around loss-making hospitals to profitable hospitals upon their takeover within two years.

    Great examples include Pusat Pakar Tawakal, Kuantan Specialist Hospital, Puteri Specialist Hospital and Bukit Mertajam Specialist Hospital.

    On management system, KPJ practises centralised dispensing, billing and collection systems. All consultation fees charged by the doctors to patients, will be billed and collected directly by KPJ, of which KPJ will subsequently dispense the doctors’ portion of remuneration only after deducting the doctors’ practising right fee. This system is efficient for the financials as everything is centralised and doctors only receive their portions after the fees are collected by KPJ.

    Like the food and beverage industry, the healthcare industry is recession proof. Currently, Malaysia’s healthcare industry is only 4% of GDP, whereas the developed countries like Australia and UK have approximately 8% of GDP spending on healthcare, meaning to say there is still plenty of room for growth for KPJ. Applying the same successful management policies, KPJ is expanding to Indonesia and Saudi Arabia which means more growth awaits KPJ apart from having a stronghold in Malaysia.

    Comment
    We have no rating for KPJ. However, in view of more growth to be expected in Malaysia’s healthcare industry and the fact it is in a recession-proof industry, KPJ is still a good medium-term buy.

    Kossan
    Kossan specialises in manufacturing latex and nitrile examination gloves. It also produces technical rubber products. Kossan marks its stamp in the industry by being one of the world’s largest powder-free medical glove producers with an annual capacity of 11 billion pieces. Credit for the successful diversification from technical rubber products to rubber gloves goes to Lim Kuang Sia, a professional engineer, who has more than 20 years of experience in the manufacture and trading of examination gloves business. Technical rubber products now account for about 10% of its revenue.

    Its forex hedging caused a hefty RM53 milion loss in FY09. Despite that, the company still grew its FY09 profit by 19.9%. Excluding this non-recurring loss, Kossan FY09 pretax profit will surge to RM140 million and the net earnings per share (EPS) will likely jump to 71 sen per share. We believe all the forex losses have been expensed off in 2009.

    Core competencies
    Currently, Kossan has a balanced product mix of 60% natural rubber gloves and 40% nitrile gloves which will ensure them to benefit from higher margins from nitrile gloves. Kossan is known in the market for quality products.

    Kossan has all its plants located in the Klang region which allows easy management and control.

    Comment
    We have no specific rating for Kossan but we like this stock as much as other rubber glove producers such as Top Glove and Supermax, despite the recent strong price performance.

    LPI
    LPI underwrites all classes of general insurance which includes fire, auto and marine insurances and provides lease financing services. Fire insurance constitutes 33% of total gross premium with auto and miscellaneous having 32% each and marine the remainder 4%. The company is led by Tan Sri Dr Teh Hong Piow who has helmed Public Bank Bhd (PBB) for more than 40 years.

    Core competencies

    LPI has won various awards locally and internationally for their excellent performance in the insurance industry. LPI’s claim ratios of 41.8% to 62.7% are lower than industry average’s 55.4% to 66.3% for FY05-08. This is attributed to LPI’s more diversified portfolio with higher exposure to fire insurance. LPI’s fire insurance has very low claims ratio of 20.7% vis-a-vis industry average’s 40.9% for FY05-08 period. In addition, due to its close association with its sister company, PBB, many of its insurance deals are referred by PBB, which made up 26% of their total premium, with the rest from direct distribution and brokers. Further, LPI benefits directly from tying up with PBB on banncassurance and from PBB’s loan growth as it can tap on the insurance business from there increasing LPI’s premium and profitability.

    LPI has invested heavily in PBB share which has yielded steady dividend over the years. Its cost of investment in PBB is RM4.30 per share against present PBB price of RM11.90.

    We believe LPI’s generous dividend policy over the years exceeding 50% has helped in its strong price performance. Despite the generous dividend payout, LPI’s profit still grew by 25%pa over the past 10 years.

    Comment
    Although we have no rating for LPI, we like the impeccable track record. It is an excellent long-term investment stock.

    QL
    QL has three main businesses: (a) manufactures and sells fishmeal, surimi and surimi-based products, (b) distributes animal feed raw materials and layer farming, and (c) palm oil milling and plantation. QL is founded and led by Chia Song Kun, an ex-mathematics lecturer, who commenced the business of distributing fishmeal and other feed meal raw materials back in 1984.

    Core competencies
    QL is a full-fledged soft commodities player in the marine product manufacturing (MPM), integrated livestock farming (ILF) and palm oil activities (POA). Its staple food products enjoy inelastic demand as world population grows and emerging markets prosper.

    MPM — QL is the largest producer of semi-processed raw fish paste (surimi) and the largest producer of fishmeal and surimi-based products in Malaysia. The surimis are exported to countries such as Japan, Korea and Singapore. In addition, the company is also a leading deep-sea fishing operator in Malaysia, allowing them to secure not only a steady supply of fishes, but also to maintain its margin.

    ILF — QL is the leading egg producer in Malaysia producing 2.1 million eggs/day. Other income is derived from distributing livestock feed, selling day-old chicks and broiler meat. The company has six poultry farms, geographically spread out in Kulim, Rawang, Nilai, Kota Kinabalu, Kuching and Tawau to mitigate any risks of diseases. QL is also a key local distributor of corn and soyabean meal for commercial animal feed products.

    Going forward, its growth driver will come from expansion in Indonesia.

    POA — The POA unit currently has 3,000 acres of fully matured oil palm plantation in Sabah with 50,000 acres of plantation land in eastern Kalimantan. The Kalimantan fields are still very much in the greenfield stages with an estimated 13,000 acres of land planted. Further downstream, QL owns two palm oil mills that can process 120,000 million tonnes of fruits per year.
    The POA unit is not expected to be a significant contributor for the next three years. However, come FY12, the maturing trees in Kalimantan will start to bear fruits..

    Comment
    We recommended QL in May 2009 at the price of RM2.61 (ex 1:5 bonus) which has since appreciated by 33%. We further reiterate our buy call on QL as a solid commodity play led by prudent management.

    Top Glove

    Top Glove manufactures a wide range of latex gloves which includes latex examination powdered, latex examination powder free, nitrile examination gloves, soft nitrile examination gloves, vinyl examination gloves, surgical gloves and other related products. It is the world’s largest rubber glove manufacturer with 23% market share. Top Glove is founded by Tan Sri Dr Lim Wee Chai who has more than 20 years’ experience in the rubber and latex manufacturing business.

    Top Glove has 10,000 employees working in 19 factories including two vinyl glove factories in China, two rubber glove factories and two latex concentrate plants in Thailand. Its products are exported to 180 countries worldwide. As it caters to a wider customer base, it has a higher proportion of powdered rubber glove, 56% against 25% for power free gloves.

    Core competencies

    Top Glove adopted a low-cost high-volume strategy to achieve the economies of scale. Currently, there is inelastic demand for examination gloves for medical purpose, with demand exceeding supply.

    Comment

    We have no specific rating for Top Glove but we like this stock as much as other rubber glove producers such as Kossan and Supermax, despite the recent strong price performance. The premium given to Top Glove is justifiable since its market cap is much larger than its peers. As a result of which, Top Glove is the favourite among foreign fund managers.


    This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 15, 2010.

    Tuesday, March 23, 2010

    分享集:不是定存·胜过定存


    ●冷眼

    投资,有如种果树。

    种果树的人,希望尝到甜美的果子。投资者,希望他所投资 的企业,获得盈利,并定期分发红利。

    这是很简单、很正常的道理。

    热衷投资于没有盈利,只希望企业成长的人,就好像种果树 旨在看到树干茁长,并不计较能否结果实,这种想法,正常吗?

    而股票投资者,对无利可图的企业的股票,趋之若鹜,往往穷追不舍,而对那些盈 利稳定,派息丰厚的股票,不屑一顾,岂不怪哉?

    有人说,股市中反常之人,悖理之事,为行为正常,态度合理之人,制造了投资获利的机会。这 种说法,有些残忍,却是不争的事实。

    纠正心态

    故股票投资,若要获利,首先就是要纠正错误态度,培养合理的思维。

    这 种说法,既老土又简单,却最易被人忘记。

    忘记了这种基本概念的人,很难从股市得利,长期亏蚀,或时赚时亏的人,很难在股市生存。不能生 存,何能发展?没有发展,何来成长?没有成长,何来获利?

    故股票投资,一点也不复杂,有人感到复杂,是因为他的头脑复杂,把简单的事复杂 化了。若能返朴归真,则复杂的现象被简化了。

    事情错综复杂,会使你眼花缭乱,把事情简化了,则自然眼光清晰,思路合理,走在投资路上,才 会脚步稳健,从容不迫。这样既不劳累,又可获利。许多投资者舍此正路不走,却偏偏要走捷径,找歪路,实令人费解。我在所写的文章中,在讲座的谈话中,不断 地重复这些最简单的道理,讲得太多,给人以老生常谈,毫无新意的印象。

    返朴归真

    我听了这些话,并不以为忤,反而引以为 傲,这证明了我的主张是长期一致的,并不如一般人那样,常常改变跑道,转换方向。

    其实,最经得起考验的,就是这些老土的,既简单又平常的 道理。那些企图标新立异的投资秘诀,多数不久就变成明日黄花。

    这是我40年投资生涯的真实体验。我是择善而固执,因为我是从复杂中走出来 的,股市有如一堆乱麻,是剪不断,理还乱的。一旦陷身其中,越挣扎,被捆得越紧,终于使人无法脱身。

    脱身之法,只有一条:返朴归真,“回 到股票是什么?”这个问题上,深入思考,找出答案,悟出道理,并且念念不忘,使它成为你的身体的一部分,这样就不会被股市乱象所困惑,股票投资,才会变得 轻松愉快。

    我把这种情形,叫“股市悟道”。世上没有悟道后还是感到烦恼之人,这种人,就是庄子中所说的“真人”。

    我常劝 投资者,尤其是股市新秀,以常识作为判断的准绳。

    “常识”就是“理应如此”。不如此,则不合“常识”。

    例如,把钱存在银 行,你定期存款,赚取利息,叫“定存”,这是大部分人的“投资”方式。

    “定存”之所以受到欢迎,是因为两个因素:⑴安全;⑵有利息。而安 全往往比利息更重要,更吸引人。

    其实,银行是靠公众的存款生存的,存款,永远是银行的血液。吸引公众把钱存在银行的最重要因素是安全,有 安全才有保障,有保障使人安心。

    利率太低

    目前银行年利低达2.5%,跟通货膨胀相比,一点也不吸引人,但是,银行存款还 是逐年增加,主要是因为人们求安全,利息低,有时使他感到无可奈何,却仍不得不把钱存进银行,因为银行最安全。

    银行定存利息2.5%,通 货膨胀6%,存了一年,钱就贬值3.5%,长期把钱存在银行,肯定吃亏。银行把钱借给企业家做生意,赚取高过银行利息的回酬,就是盈利。所以,把钱存在银 行,你实际上是帮助企业家赚钱,帮助别人赚钱是在做好事,做好事是“利人”,问题是“利人”之后,你“损己”。

    我们不能做“损人利己”的 事,但总不能“损己利人”啦,何况你这所“利”之人是富人,而你所“损”的“己”却是穷人。

    所以,长期把钱存放银行,尤其是“定存”是很 不明智的做法。而银行就是靠大人的不明智而获利。

    股息收入银行利息一倍

    现在让我们往深一层想:既然企业是靠我们的钱(银 行借给企业的钱都是你的钱)赚取高过银行存款利息;那么,我们何不把钱交给企业去替我们赚钱呢?为什么还要把钱存在银行呢?

    把钱长期存在 银行叫“定存”,把钱交给企业去赚钱,叫“投资”。

    为什么人人喜欢“定存”,却不“投资”呢?

    答案是“定存”完全没有风 险;投资有风险。

    如果我们找到回酬高过银行定存利息,而又相当安全的投资对象,一方面可以取得更高的收入,一方面也有可能取得资本增值, 这不是两全其美吗?需知“定存”是永远不会增值的。循着这条思路,我们到股市去找。

    长期投资

    我们的目的,是要找出股息不 但高,而且稳定,同时企业安全度相当高的公司,买进之后为长期投资,把你花在购买股票的钱,视为定存。

    一个企业,无论怎样健全稳固,总会 有一些风险,何况股价还会波动。所以,股息收入,必须比银行利息高一倍才合理。

    以这个标准去寻找,我找到了NCB机构(北港机构)。

    NCB 的业务很简单,分为经营巴生北港(North Port)和经营离港箱运,前者占营收和盈利的95%,后者占5%。故重点是在港口服务,拖格箱运属辅助性质。

    港口的业务很简单:投入巨 额资金,建设码头,供运载货物的船只停泊,起落出入口的货物。

    港务局其实是将设备出租给船务公司,同时提供货物起落服务,从而收取费用。 这种情形,其实跟酒店差不多,是属“服务业”。

    只要有国际贸易,就一定要用到码头,当然,码头之间也有竞争,但船务公司习惯在一个码头停 泊之后,很少转换,故码头的生意是相当稳定——最低限度比酒店稳定。

    北港的建设,可以追溯到1880年,至今已有120多年的历史。

    巴 生港口前称瑞天港,分为北港和西港,NCB拥有北港。

    盈利稳定

    港口的特征是业务稳定,但成长缓慢,尤其是北港,受土地的 限制,成长的空间不大,但业务稳定,财务稳如泰山,到去年12月的财务年,以4亿7000万令吉的资本,却拥8亿令吉的现金,完全没有负债,每股现金高达 1令吉70仙。

    该公司去年净赚1亿4107万令吉,每股净利30仙。该公司将70%的净利以股息分发给股东,去年派息28仙(包括中期股 息7仙,年终股息10仙,特别股息11仙;年终和特别股息除权日为4月21日)。

    土著单位信托基金拥有NCB的48.78%股权,该基金 需要现金分发股息给单位信托投资者,所以NCB将保持高股息政策。

    另一方面,北港受土地限制,发展空间有限,所以不需要巨额建设开支,再 加上盈利异常稳定,现金有增无减,这也是该公司股息丰厚的原因之一。该公司已连续4年派发特别股息,预料此项政策将持续。

    股价波动

    过 去5年的派息率为:2005年15仙;2006年26.5仙;2007和2008年均为25仙;2009年28仙。

    以目前的股价计算,毛 股息周息率8.25%,净周息率为6.2%,仍比银行定存高一倍以上。

    故从股息回酬的角度看,买NCB的股票,不是定存,胜过定存。但投 资者也不要忘记,买NCB股票需面对股价波动的风险。

    南洋商报