Thursday, January 01, 2009

股市究竟是甚麼?(下)‧用外資不借外債

股市究竟是甚麼?(下)‧用外資不借外債

股票這意兒既古老又時髦,既熟悉又神秘。它是那樣地使投資人入迷、發狂、失去理智,即使輸了錢仍毫無怨言在市場搏殺。“利潤是投資的誘因”,只有可觀的投資利潤,才能吸引資金不斷地投進股市。

股票是一種資本,是一種流動資產,也稱為“風險性的資產”。股市對於促進國家經濟發展,提高資金使用效率具有非常重要的意義,也可以說是普通投資人取得合法收益的良好管道。

籌集資金生產建設

一、從宏觀因素的角度來看,它的意義在於

1.可以廣泛動員社會閑散的資金,為國家經濟建設發展服務,擴大生產規模,推動經濟發展。

2.可以促進資金的橫向融通和經濟橫向的聯系,提高資源配置的總體效益,使政府和上市公司能夠各就其位、各司其職、各用其權、各得其利。

3.可以擴大國家利用外資的渠道和方式,增強對外資的吸引能力,有利於更多地吸收外資和提高利用外資的經濟效益,收到“用外資不借外債”的效果。

二、從微觀因素的角度來看,有如下的意義

1.有利於上市公司籌集資金,滿足生產建設的資金需要,由於股票投資的無限期性,上市公司對所籌集的資金不需還,因此,可以長期使用,有利於公司擴大生產和經營。

2.有利於上市公司建立和完善自約束、自我發展的經營管理機制。上市公司可根據需要擴大生產建設規模,有利於增強公司在社會上的知名度,提高信用比率,對上市公司的經營和發展有很大的幫助。

3.有利於上市公司調整產品結構,提高經濟效益。股票投資活動的開展,使上市公司把籌資的觸角直接伸向市場,改善上市公司資金需求由銀行包括供的狀況,使上市公司外有壓力,內有動力,可以增強活力,有利於公司產品結構的調整和經濟效益的提昇。

根據能裡投資

三、從股票投資人的角度來看,它的意義在於

1.在投資資金的數量上,不管是資金雄厚的大戶還是小戶的投資人,都可以參與股票投資,錢多的可以多買,錢少的可以少買。股市為投資人提供機會,使資金有合適的出路,發揮資金的經濟效能。'

2.在投資對象的選擇上,既可以是單項選擇,也可以是多元組合,投資人有權選擇購買某種股票,也有權選擇不購買其種行業的股票,完全由投資人根據公司經營狀況,財務結構以及市場行情的變化自由選購。股市為投資人挑選股項、組合投資,分散投資創造了環境和條件。

3.在資金的使用上,投資在股市上可以自由買進賣出,手上有資金可隨時進場吸購,需要急用時,又可隨時賣出套取現金。

以上所談的意義和作用正是股票投資具有很強吸引力的緣由所在。

投進股市,就走入一種全新的人生境界,股市是散戶學習、經濟、政治、心理的社會財經大學,踏入這個領域,就必須勤奮自覺的學習。

股市是陶冶人性的大熔爐,不斷提升你的心理素質。

股市是誨人不倦的老師,不斷給你智慧。

星洲日報/投資廣場/玩股票你要學‧2008.12.22

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

股市究竟是甚麼?(上)‧股票不是錢‧是商品

股市竟是甚麼(上)‧股票不是錢‧是商品

金融海嘯持續發酵,經濟展望蒙塵,股市跌跌不休。有位股友來電訴苦道:年初玩股票嘗到一點甜頭,為了擴大經營,把銀行的定期存款全投進股市,如今虧損慘重,大罵股市是個鱷魚潭,是吃人不吐骨頭的市場。

股市竟是甚麼

有一位股市的沙場老將戲言:

如果你喜歡一個人,你就帶他進軍股市,因為那裡可以通天堂──股市是贏家的天堂。

如果你憎恨一個人,你就誘他進軍股市,因為那裡可以通地獄──股市是輸家的地獄。

其實股市並不是天堂,也不是地獄。因為要上天堂,或是要下地獄,都不是由自己來決定的,而是由市場來決定的。不懂股市,不知道股市運作的規律,憑著胸口的一個勇字進場搏殺,進地獄的機率奇高。

股市是冒險家樂園

股市竟是甚麼難以找到標準的答案。

對冒險家來說,股市是樂園。

對盲目跟風者來說,股市是屠宰場。

股市誤解的人來說,股市是鱷魚潭。

對在家來說,股市是聚寶盆。

對作戰經驗豐富的投資者來說,股市是提款機。

對無知的投資人來說,是股市庄家最歡迎你來奉獻鈔票的好地方。

股市是金錢的角逐場,只認錢不認人,你想進軍股市賺錢,就必須認錢、知股、識自己、懂股市、會操作,知進退,要不然就會被股市當球踢,把你踢得暈頭轉向,滿天星斗。

股市遍地是鈔票,對散戶的誘惑太大了。

股市是心理王國,散戶存在的弱點太多了。

股市是循環的,散戶在熊市中輸得太慘了。

股市魅力無窮,探索追求者正在增加。

股市宛如萬花筒,五顏六色,千姿百態,變化一瞬間。

股市是一門科學、一種生意,更是一門藝術,一門永遠讓人遺憾的藝術。

放大人性弱點

不經股市的洗禮,不能認識金錢逐利的本性,不能體驗到金錢搏殺的慘烈,不能看出人性的弱點。股市是煉獄,股市讓貪婪的人性發揮到極點。

股市的錢是錢又不是錢,但是最終還是錢。不經股市歷練的人,很難會對財富大徹大悟。歷經股市煉獄的洗禮,一個全新的自我就會站在自己的面前──如果能夠好好檢討、天天學習、常常總結、時時關注的話。否則,你還是股盲,還是拿著鈔票到股市上作奉獻的犧牲者。

投進風高浪急的股海,是科學研是追逐金錢是品嘗金錢搏殺的樂趣是體驗財富積累的艱辛是理想還是在探索股市人生的輝煌

股市竟是甚麼

馬克思說:“假如等待積累去使某些個人資本增長到能夠修建鐵路的程度,那麼恐怕直到今天,世界上還沒有鐵路。但是集中通過股份公司,很快的就能夠把這件事完成。”

股市反映政經形形勢

這就是股市的最大動能。從原始意義上來說,股份制公司是為了集資而出現的。股份制的步伐和股票的規模,是國家宏觀經濟操作的一個重要的組成部份。股票市場是商品經濟發展的必然產物。股票不是錢,而是商品。

任何一個國家,它的股市都是反映政治、經濟形勢的晴雨表。股市隨國家的變化而變化,國家經濟繁榮、政治清明穩定,股市就就穩健上漲;國家經濟不景氣,政局動亂,股市就節節敗退。

股市是金錢搏殺的大戰場,投資人會在上漲下跌中領略到金錢搏殺的慘烈。

股市的搖錢樹必須由散戶親手栽。在股市這片土地上,不能指望每一粒種子都結出豐碩的果實,如果每一隻股票都能大賺特賺,一出手就中,逢中必贏,那麼股市就不是戰場,而是慈善堂。

星洲日報/投資廣場/玩股票你要學‧2008.12.15

把握4次置產黃金機會

把握4次置產黃金機會

* 財富廣場

2008-12-27 19:43

*

2008下半年物價漲勢升溫,隨之而來的通膨率創新高,許多人知道投資房地產可以保值,而且可以獲利,可是面對居高不下的房價,卻怎麼也買不下手,自己住的房屋雖然賬面漲了價,卻又無法出售獲利,真正面對“有價無市”的窘境。

新一波的全球金融危機,對美洲、歐洲及亞洲多個市場帶來巨大衝擊,大馬的情況雖說還好,但也在某種程度上感受到受牽連,市場購興或買氣減弱,產業購買者基本採取觀望態度。

大馬房地產發展商會不久前的調查結果顯示,有70%業者認為產業購買者擱置產業購買計劃,選擇在場外觀望,待形勢較明朗再另行決定。

不過,業內人士指出,目前有條件、手上有現金、數額較大筆公積金儲蓄的繳納者,或是對產業市場稍有跟進的投資者,這是一個選擇投資產業的機會,現階段是購買者有條件議價的時候,發展商出售的房產單位,或是轉手市場的交易,基本價格保持在原位、一些地區甚至有稍微回落的跡象,因此對投資產業有購興者,應該掌握這個良機。

要如何脫穎而出、投資獲利?且聽專家的以下分析:

時間是房地產獲利的主要原因:

“要賺房地產的錢,最大的機會在於時間!”簡單說,投資房地產可以說是賺取“時間”財,所有曾獲利的房地產投資者,都是因為“時間”成熟了,就增值了,也就賺到一些錢。

對一般人而言,大約在30歲才開始接觸房地產,60歲退休後就比較沒能力再投資房地產(即使增值也享受不到)。因此,只有30年的投資時間,即使最樂觀的估計,也不超過40年。

依歷史的經驗,平均大約每10年,房地產會有一波漲勢,也就是說,對大多數人而言,一生中只有3至4次“機會”,這是非常公平的,不論你很富裕或只有適中財富,都有3至4次機會。

所謂“20看學歷、30看能力,40看機率、50看財力”,絕大多數的人在20歲與30歲之間,沒有太多的錢,可是到了50歲的時候,情況就不一樣,有些人的財富可能已經翻了幾倍,甚至更多倍,為甚麼呢?

就是因為在同樣的“時間”裡,有些人掌握正確的方法賺到了錢,有些人卻堅持自己的想法,採用了錯誤的方法,而失去了“時間”機會。

友聯產業經紀公司經理包久武、不久前在首都的產業展銷會上表示,要如何掌握3至4次的機會?只有2種方法,“儘早開始”是一種;“方法正確”是另一種:

方法一:儘早開始

對於“儘早開始”,“有多少能力,做多少投資!”是許多人的堅定思想,不先擁有一個自有住宅,不願意去思考投資房地產獲利的事,正是他們不能快速累積財富的主要原因。

有了這種思想,一生的獲利“機會”可能已經失了一大半!為甚麼呢?因為當他們依自己能力購買一個自用的房屋時,從購買到貸款可以減輕能力的範圍,大約要10年,然後他們因為能力增加了,又想換一個大一級的房屋(由小屋換大屋),可能又要10年。

當他們準備好可以“開始”投資房地產時,一般只剩1到2次機會,所以我們常可以看到許多人到了40、50歲才開始想投資房地產,雖然他們的能力足夠了,但“機會”卻已經不多。

有些人選擇提早退休,可能是45歲的時候,基於對產業買賣有興趣,考取房地產經紀文憑後,全力投資房地產,因此還賺了一些錢;也有一些單身年輕人,先與父母住,將自己收入的一部份拿去投資房地產,比別人多一到二次的機會,待賺到錢後,自然可以悠哉閒哉、自在的生活。

在投資房地產的道路上,不要輕易失去機會,到了40、50歲夜深人靜的時候,坐在客廳的沙發上想:“為何如此努力工作,財富卻比不上那些能力看起來遠不及自己的人?”主要原因是因為沒有掌握“時間”機會,自然賺不到房地產的投資利益。

我們相信一定會有人提出這樣的問題,不用買的就用租的,租的話可能要看房東的臉色,會沒有安全感!在供不應求的時代,難免要看房東的臉色,但在供過於求的階段,可能是房東看房客的臉色。

方法二:正確方法

對於“方法正確”的論調,目前社會中有許多高學歷的年輕雙薪家庭,夫婦兩人的月收入超過七八千令吉,卻仍擠在不是“自有住宅”裡,不但缺乏生活品質,生了小孩後,常因空間狹小,常影響到夫妻以及與父母親之間的感情。

他們為何不住大一些的房子呢?常聽到的原因是房價太高買不起。如果每個月付2000令吉,能否在都市租到品質不錯的房屋?當然可以!可是為甚麼不“馬上”改善居住環境呢?

若要等到辛苦一生,犧牲生活品質20年後,才換大房子住,那時可能已經40至50歲了。在自己能力不及的過度期,何不選擇短期內租一些優質產業,這樣即可讓自己住得舒適,也讓投資者在產業的投資道路上更為順暢,形成一個平穩的產業投資市場。

目前在大馬的大都市,豪宅價格即使沒有持續上漲,也不會跌價,增值性有目共睹,可是大多數人為甚麼不去買豪宅呢?最常見的答案是能力不足,買不起!

相對地、小面積的公寓,增值潛力有限,而且還有供過於求的現象,可是為甚麼要買房屋的時候,卻還是去買小面積的房屋呢?

最常聽到的答案是能力有限!郊區的房屋也出現類似的情況,明知交通不便、供過於求、出租困難,再加上交通成本不斷升高,還是有許多人去購買,為甚麼呢?也是因為能力有限,只買得起郊區的房屋。

這種“能力”至上論,就是讓許多人一生富不起來的重要原因!明知會增值,卻不投資;相反地,明知供過於求,不會增值,卻因自己買得起而去投資,這是投資的錯誤觀念,卻是許多人的投資方式。

環球屋業發展有限公司法律顧問林若輝律師說,就房地產而言,地段愈佳、面積愈大、品質愈好,自然就會愈稀有,愈稀有的東西價值就愈高;因此,要投資就是選擇具有上述特質的商品。但是具有這種特色商品的價格自然也高,要如何買得到呢?

募集資金加強能力

集中力量是第一步,要將自己的投資力量集中,開始的時候,可以先租房屋(甚至住在父母家)、遲一些購買車子、更努力工作(甚至兼職)、配偶可以晚些退休,透過這些方式,可以將自己的投資能力加強。

房地產是具有高槓桿機會的投資商品,只要增加一分能力,就可以產生數倍甚至數10倍的效果,因此儲備實力(錢)至為重要。

第二步是努力募集低利率資金,如果行得通,也可以暫時向父母、兄弟姐妹借,要儘可能運用各種關係,只要能夠募集到愈多低成本的資金,就愈能快速累積財富。

房地產投資風險不會很高,唯一需要的是時間,尤其是在通貨膨脹嚴緊的時期,貨幣貶值的情況愈明顯。

實力產業經紀公司的陳建業說,他有一個朋友,父親在他小的時候,幫他買了一個30年期的1萬令吉保險,1萬令吉在當時可說相當大,父母辛苦付了30 年的保費,當期滿時拿到1萬令吉,可能只可以買到一部已有二手車。這個例子說明“時間”對於房地產投資是“仙丹”,但是“保留”現金,未必是“靈藥”。

第3步是努力募集合夥人。在房地產投資的世界裡,沒有一個人是能力充足的,即使許多地產專家,也有與其他人合夥、共同投資房地產的時候。

所以,資金不足是房地產投資永遠會碰到的問題,只要想投資,就不要逃避,應該和父母、兄弟姊妹、好親友或好同學組成投資團隊,集資去購買好的,會增值的產業。

要注意房地產投資世界的兩個重要原則:“買得起通常可能賣不掉!”、“價格低通常可能不會漲!”千萬不要投資一個賣不掉或是不會漲的房地產。

因此,只要能善用自己的能力、能募集到低利率的資金,或能夠找到合作的股東,就沒有買不到的商品,而能夠成功募集這些資金才是真正能力的表現。

租金就是一切

國際性企業為出租對象的辦公大樓,不但品質較佳,面積也較大,租金上漲的速度將會增加,投資獲利的機會自然較大。房地產為甚麼會有價值?就是因為有人願意付租金使用,願意承租的人愈多,價值就愈大,如果是相反的情況,產業的價值可能沒有看頭。

陳建業說,“人潮即錢潮”,意思是說,如果附近來往的人多,對產業的需求自然增加,租金回酬也比較可觀,房地產就可以保值。

因此,如果想投資房地產,判斷租金能力即為最重要的工作,而判斷租金的方法,最重要的有3個指標,地點、產業類型與企業租戶:

地點:

就房地產投資而言,財力優厚與否是一個因素,最重要的另一個因素是產業的所在地點,到太偏遠的地方投資,往往面對失敗率也比較高。

一些坐落在出入交通方便、距離輕快鐵站的地區,產業的增值與出租率,往往比較可觀,出入這些地點的人潮較多,有關地區的租金與價值相應提昇。這些都證明了,順勢而為,可以事半功倍,逆勢而為,往往徒勞無功,而地點就是“勢”!

產業類型:

如果不瞭解產業需求的變化,將觀念停留在過去的框框裡,就會冒極大的風險。最好的例子是店面,由於大型商場的興起,以及都市管理手法的嚴格,再加上運輸系統及交通方式的改變,人們的購買習慣已經改變,地點極佳的店面,,租金的獲利機會才可能比較高。

住宅產業也是另一個例子,不論是硬體或軟體,新舊住宅的差異都在加速擴大,因此一些地區的轉手屋投資價值開始褪色;反之,市區一些新建、概念新穎的房屋,投資價值則不斷上升,當然,地點特好的的轉手屋,依然不愁沒有買家或租戶。

辦公室的情況也在改變,以國內企業為出租對象的B、C級辦公室,由於軟硬體水準不容易提昇,因此,租金也難有大幅度上漲;相對地,以國際企業為出租對象的A級辦公樓,不但品質較佳、面積也較大,租金上漲的步伐將加速,投資獲利的機會自然比較大。

企業租戶:

由於多種商品有供過於求的現象,因此,國際化將成為房地產投資的必然方向,能付得起高租金的外國人(或是本國大企業),自然成為創造房地產價值的重要推手。

因此,有能力協助房地產擁有者去賺企業客戶租金的產業經紀,重要性自然大幅提高,專業經紀的能力,表現在提供專業性服務或專業經營,以及作為與企業客戶進行產業交易的媒介。

這種讓產業經紀與產業投資者雙贏的房地產投資模式,在可預見的未來,會成為重要的模式,這些都必須有賴於能創造、保持高租金能力的專業人士或團隊去進行。

“房地產投資不是投機行為”,許多人都以為房地產投資是一種投機行為,其實是對房地產投資缺乏瞭解;只有很少人可以用低於市價買到房地產單位,因此,必須能真正掌握趨勢才有獲利可能。

在目前的市場,只有少數人有能力去購買交易金額大的房地產商品,因此必須要有良好的募資能力,才有獲利可能,只有少數的人可以將低租金的房地產賣到好價格。

結語:

我們經常面對多數人對房地產投資缺乏瞭解,動輒以投機心態和方法參與投資,自然容易蒙受損失;因此,還是要提醒大家,不要誤將房地產視為投機工具,而忽略了其獨特優點!

星洲日報/財富廣場/焦點策劃‧2008.12.27

2009股市5大動態

2009股市5大動態

從通縮、經濟刺激方案、避險、新興市場到地緣政治,2009年投資人有5大變數需要觀察。

美國政府很清楚,現在不太可能圈出單一政策推升經濟重新復甦,因此現在官員儘可能把所有救衰退 的策略丟出來,希望錦囊妙計合力發威,將痛苦減到最低。也的確,目前許多環節正在運作,雖然普羅大眾可能只感覺到忙翻的聯儲局主席南克、美國財長保爾森以 及相關人員努力打方向盤,而非踩著油門往前衝。

儘管投資人現在只想舉雙手投降,然後找個溫暖舒服的地方冬眠到經濟復甦、春天來臨,不過《商業 週刊》專欄寫手大偉近來撰文提醒投資人,不要錯過避險及投資的好機會。根據《商業週刊》對經濟學家及投資策略專家的訪查,2009年股市有5大動態值得觀 察,許多線索可供投資人調整自己的投資配置。

觀察指標一:通縮與通膨

在可以預期的未來內,通貨緊縮顯然比通膨風險增高許多,而12月16日聯儲局也根據這個原因將聯邦目標利率調降到歷史新低0.25%,對抗通貨緊縮成為美國聯準會最優先要務。

通貨緊縮有潛在好處

但是,卻很少人提到通貨緊縮對美國消費者的潛在好處。 StateStreetGlobalAdvisors全球資產配置經理人唐貝爾斯(DanPeirce)表示,能源價格直直墜,利率明顯讓大家寬心,這雖 然折損了有錢投資人的資產收入,但對身上背著債務的企業主和家庭、以及想籌錢償還抵押貸款的個人來說,不啻是個好消息。

換句話說,這代表一些股市裡表現慘不忍睹的產業又有活水注入:零售、餐飲和洗衣連鎖業可能衝破眾人對2009年的市場預期。如果投資人對此有信心,可以考慮產業導向的ETF或共同基金,特別是鎖定消費性產品或甚至非核心消費品的個股。

唐貝爾斯表示,投資人不應被媒體上充斥的汽車紓困新聞嚇壞,雖然汽車是一種非核心消費品,但沒有以往佔據的比例那麼重。另外,還有某些多角化經營(例如集中在廣告或播放業務)的媒體企業也是不錯的選擇。

未來2年通膨率跌勢極強

分析師認為,只要通縮風險勝過通膨的可能性,債券市場收益表現會比股市更吸引人。唐貝爾斯指 出,拿10年期和20年期抗通膨債券(TIPS)的實質殖利率(經通膨率校正)與一般國庫券的名義殖利率相比,顯示未來10至20年間通膨位於特別低的水 準。不過,儘管債市已經預期未來2年通膨率向下的趨勢極強,但唐貝爾斯的顧問團隊質疑通縮是否會真的這麼嚴重。

雖然至少2010年前通膨大概不會構成困擾,然而AmeripriseFinancial的首席經濟學家唐勞芬堡(DanLaufenberg)在12月19日一份報告中預測,下一波擴張來臨時,通膨會更快成為隱患─比過去三波擴張期的經驗更早降臨。

如果通膨比大家預想的時間更早報到,Waddell&Reed主管漢克 (HankHerrmann)表示,投資人建議的曝險部位集中在商品市場及後勢看漲的資產價值,包括能源及鋼鐵。他指出,適宜降低固定收益的資產配置,因 為通膨可能把殖利率推高、債券的價格就變低了。

觀察指標二:美國政府的刺激經濟方案

美國政府的刺激經濟包裹到底裝甚麼東西?對整體經濟的影響多快發酵?雖然號稱方案總額有1兆美 元,但顯然大部份資金會用在最重要的區塊。唐勞芬堡表示,最好的結果當然是“促使私人部門變得更有效能和生產力”。這可能包含大規模的醫療紀錄數位化、為 學校及圖書館鋪設學術網路。

企業紓困或引發大裁員

然而如果奧巴馬政府想要保留工作機會,該做的不是對問題企業進行紓困,因為紓困方案勢必要求這些公司朝縮小規模邁進,這可能引發更大裁員潮。

此外,從稅收的角度來看,公共基礎建設案的支出可能比減稅效果更好、更快,長期來說可以大幅提昇全國的稅收。美國許多州政府現在已經著手編列公共開支。

但是也有不同的看法,漢克就認為,只要減稅方案是持續存在的,減稅可以更快刺激美國經濟。他相 信減稅可以促進消費者增加花費,減價零售商如Wal-Mart會因此獲益,其餘非核心消費的業者也能分得好處。減稅也可以讓企業加速淘汰折舊的廠房、資產 還有設備,以此刺激在科技與產業機械方面的資本花費。

如果刺激方案拉抬經濟復甦的速度比現在人們預想得更快,那麼能源價格與股市都會反彈,然後投資人就可以準備持有能源和天然氣資源的基金了。

唐勞芬堡表示,擴張能否持續,不僅受到政府政策刺激的影響,更受價格左右,而低利率、縮小信貸利差可以加速這個過程。市場通常領先感受復甦的溫度(約提早6個月),但經濟還是會出現大幅波動。他特別預測,2009年第四季國內生產總值將大幅下挫,高失業率也將重新現蹤。

長期來說,遊戲產業有很多不錯的投資機會,不過唐勞芬堡推薦追蹤較廣泛的指數型基金,例如代表標普500大盤的基金。他表示:“沒辦法保證幾個星期內或一個月後就可以獲利,但我認為,兩三年內應該可以幫投資人賺到錢。”

觀察指標三:持續避險

財富管理公司ResourceGroup分析師約翰馬沙(John Marshall)表示,2009年有一個現象仍會持續:投資人內心充滿衝突,腦中想著要藉機逢低進場,購買便宜股票,但是情緒上又抗拒任何風險。

約翰馬沙指出,對這些投資人來說,有固定收入的年金保險投資可能是眼下最好的選擇。因為年金保 險讓投資人在子賬戶中選擇各種共同基金,但又可以獲得保險公司提供的固定收益。他表示:“這雖然需要花一點小成本,不過有額外保障。年金保險有點像加裝汽 車的安全氣囊,如果碰到小擦撞,無需啟動安全氣囊,但如果發生大車禍,這就很有價值。”

有些人認為,市況如此惡劣,現在投入年金保險是最不恰當的時間點。不過如果你是作壁上觀的散戶投資人,正身陷理性與感性、進場或者不要進場的天人交戰,約翰馬沙表示,年金既提供額外報酬、又可以讓投資人心靈安寧,還不須犧牲承擔風險以獲得高報酬的機會。

許多提供類似產品的保險公司發現,自己不得不對客戶提高收費,因為目前市場環境惡劣,保證客戶的報酬變成一大負擔。不過約翰馬沙認為,這些保險業者不會把價格調到過高而嚇跑客戶,但業者可能取消部份高風險的基金選擇,轉而要求客戶的投資要平衡配置。

觀察指標四:新興市場

大多數經濟學家相信,美國的衰退情況遠比其他已開發國家輕微,特別是歐洲。2008年新興市場 的資產價值大幅縮水,讓許多投資人撤資逃跑,不過唐貝爾斯表示,今年新興市場頹象部份來自2007年超漲。他說:“與過去相比,這些地方其實沒有劣於平 均。這顯示他們正在學習怎麼有效掌握財政狀況。”

唐貝爾斯警告,先進國際市場將面臨基本面的挑戰,未來幾年,他們恐怕比新興市場更加煩惱。新興市場因人口增加、消費力上升、需求擴大而受惠,而且許多觀察家指出,這些地區的負債反而比先進國家少。

中國將維持極度出口導向,而先前宣佈的大量財政和貨幣刺激計劃可望提昇中國經濟,讓成長率保持在相對較佳的速度。中國社會情況正在轉變,原本的儲蓄文化漸漸朝消費轉向,雖然這個過程會相當漫長,不過已經開始。

唐貝爾斯表示,亞洲其他國家曾經在10年前經歷金融風暴,“這個經驗避免亞洲諸國陷入西方前10年的超量信貸消費。”追蹤摩指新興市場指數的ETF值得投資人參考。

觀察指標五:地緣政治的風險

大家都希望,全球經濟衰退是來年“唯一”需要煩惱的話題,但實際上地緣政治風險並沒有消融。巴 基斯坦與印度間的緊繃氣氛、伊朗手中的核子武器以及其他各種政治地雷都對奧巴馬政府構成挑戰,Andres資產管理公司總裁卜安德烈 (BobAndres)警告,新政府可以犯錯的空間有限。

大家對新總統奧巴馬的期待甚深,希望他能帶領美國經濟走出現在的陰霾,但如果奧巴馬表現不如預 期,很可能挫傷他身為國際政治斡旋者的聲望和影響力。反過來說,奧巴馬處理國際危機的能力如果被打擊,美國股市的信心也將受到負面影響。2009年投資人 讀報紙時,不僅要看財經版,也得多瞄兩眼國際新聞。

星洲日報/投資廣場/國際風向球‧2008.12.29

保值抗衰退‧投資者轉投黃金懷抱

保值抗衰退‧投資者轉投黃金懷抱

不 知道亞洲人是天真樂觀還是自欺欺人,認為歐美經濟衰退甚至蕭條,不會影響或蔓延到亞洲,何況有亞洲經濟大國中國在撐腰,似乎沒有一丁點蕭條危機的意識;反 觀歐美則是另一個景象,隨著2個月前的美國民眾大事購買金幣,導致缺貨的情況下,驅使鑄幣廠宣佈暫停出售,並且趕鑄應市,如今歐盟的情況亦如是,民眾因擔 憂經濟衰退而扯購黃金。

在瑞士阿爾卑斯山一個湖旁的一間貴金屬提煉廠,目前正在日以繼夜趕工提煉金條,以應客戶的需 求。由於經濟衰退,民眾寧願把其等資產轉變能保存其價值的工具──黃金,以致對黃金的需求非常殷切,其實,誠如此提煉廠一名董事所說,生產線自今年中已經 戲劇性的開始了,據他說從事黃金業務30年來從未經驗過如此的情況。雖然瑞士沒有金礦場,但是其冶金術卻是世界上其中一個最大者,處理全球開採總數約 40%的金礦。

隨著 原油價格因經濟衰退而不斷下跌至低於40美元(7月份時最高140美元),通縮之聲不絕於耳,但是這可能是短暫的現象,緊接著是一段時期的通膨(因為市場 充斥美元所致),侵蝕著紙幣資產如股票、債券及銀行存款的價值,投資者唯有尋求黃金作為替代品抗通膨保值,其價格可能再次飆漲至超越1000美元大關。

弱勢美元提昇黃金價

美國政府為了振興經濟,不惜借貸數以千億計美元,以致充斥市場,弱勢美元勢將頻頻往下探,屆時 負債與貨幣危機接踵而來,美元則至近乎完全墜落而不能自拔,也無法被提昇,這是黃金的提昇力;至於早前鑒於經濟危機,美國投資者在海外所投資的業務,已紛 紛撤回國,以致對美元需求殷而被提昇之,如今已告一段落,換句話說,強勢美元已不在。

其次,截至9月30日的財政年度,美國政府的赤字達4550億美元,如果再加上紓困金融市場7000億美元,新的一年財政年度赤字可能超過雙倍,弱勢美元將被肯定。

已有分析家在探討,究竟黃金價格於何時及可能達至的水平,胥視美國政府與有關中行會再向經濟注 入美元多寡而定,以紓緩借貸危機,不過,即使對黃金不瞭解,也不必是一位黃金專家,手中持有現貨黃金是錯不了的,又如果未來世界將會如何,持有黃金是唯一 可行的途徑,黃金是最終的安全保障。

為了抵抗衰退的環境,主要工業國家唯有採取能使其貨幣貶值的政策,民眾一旦對紙幣與其它投資資產完全失去信心時,勢將投入黃金的懷抱。聯儲局若把利率調至零,將會降低購買黃金的機會成本,優於固定收入的投資,如此,將阻攔了中行拋售黃金的可能性。

回頭來看黃金受支持的程度,自大前週的市場由價格750美元開始回漲起,至前週至高880美元 為止,根據美國商品期貨交易理事會的報告:截至12月16日為止,紐約黃金期貨的空買盤增加了2萬5094宗或30.177%至10萬8249宗。當然, 美元兌歐元匯率走弱,由1.27至1.47是最大的推動力。

在美元因歐盟區貿易赤字縮小與美國每週失業救濟金申請下降而呈強勢,打壓著黃金之際,美國布什 政府惟恐汽車工業崩潰,將使經濟衰退陷入既深且需時更長,而宣佈了一套拯救計劃。這個計劃形同是一把雙刃刀,因為,提供174億美元貸款,增加了市場流通 的現金,加劇通膨;另一方面,一旦紓困計劃最終可導致恢復美國經濟成長,至少不會如所預期的那麼糟透,黃金投資者勢將轉移陣地至股市,對黃金是負因。

原油處低潮是黃金負因

至於黃金另一個推動力原油,其價格已處於低潮的40美元以下,也是黃金的負因。另一邊廂,由於 多國中行大量注資入銀行系統的結果,信貸的惡劣的環境已緩和了下來,其次是美國汽車工業紓困計劃能否成功並有助振興其經濟的顧慮卻仍然在圍繞著,以美元仍 呈弱勢,穩住著黃金的走勢。

接近年底結賬,黃金市場因之有套利的活動,以致美元現金需求增加,黃金價格遂由850美元水平 被打壓至820美元水平,不過,其趺勢卻受到多項有關經濟報名數據所限,如美國第三季國民總生產(GDP)調整後也如所預期收縮了0.5%至1.4%(之 前是收縮0.3%至1.6%),意味著如果經濟衰退的步伐加劇劇,第四季GDP收縮的幅度可能會更大,同期消費者與商業皆減少支出,美元為之走弱。

其次,11月份現成房屋銷售下挫8.6%,超越10月份的4.5%,同期新房屋銷售也是自1991年以來最低,以上所提的數據都對美元走勢不利,惟美元需求提昇力掩蓋了一系列數據對經濟負面的影響力,這就是美元兌歐元匯率呈徘徊介於1.39與1.40之間的原因。

又一系列美國的經濟報告數據,前週的失業救濟金申請人數創下26年來的高峰,消費者連續5個月來減少支出,同時11月分耐用品訂單也下降1%(雖不大但仍顯示收縮),以致對美國經濟衰退產生陷入長期的恐懼感。

從深陷的經濟衰退角度來看,市場深切關注大量美鈔印製應市,以期經濟跳出衰退的框框,這是助長了黃金價格回漲至接近850美元的原因。顯然的,由黃金價格的走勢看來,市場並不相信即使聯儲局能助經濟在短期間脫離衰退的困境。

星洲日報/投資廣場/黃金之旅‧2008.12.29

OSK investment strategy 2009

24-12-2008: OSK investment strategy 2009

2008 – A year to forget
FROM record highs to multi-year lows. 2008 was indeed a roller-coaster year for the KLCI with a record high of 1,524.69 pts on Jan 14 before plunging to a four-year low of 801.27 on Oct 28.

Caution was already in the air at the start of the year as the valuations of certain companies started to look stretched although the market PER as a whole was still reasonable at 16 times to 17 times.

As the global financial turmoil worsened, the deleveraging by hedge funds which had been caught flat-footed led to capital flight from emerging markets back to the US. This in turn bolstered the US dollar, which strengthened from a low of RM3.13 to a high of RM3.63 on Nov 20.

The stronger US dollar consequently brought about a weakening in commodity prices. Crude oil touched a peak of US$147.27 (RM515.45) per barrel in July and then plummeted by some 60% while crude palm oil (CPO), which hit a high of RM4,206 per tonne in March, lost 70% up to October.

When commodity prices slid, so did commodity-related sectors such as plantation, oil and gas (O&G) and steel. While the plantation sector constituted some 21% of the KLCI's weighting in January, this had fallen to 15% by October given the dip in plantation stocks.

A busy year for news. Undoubtedly, the biggest news in 2008 was the outcome of the March 8 general election. With the ruling Barisan Nasional returned to power on only a simple majority and five states falling into the opposition's hands, the market had reacted negatively, plummeting 123 points in its largest single-day drop in 2008. Other key events that sparked strong reactions in the market were:

  • Jan 16 and Jan 22: A drop of 52 points and 54 points on fears of a global recession
  • June 5: A 30-point drop after the government imposed a windfall tax on independent power producers
  • Aug 29: A pre-Merdeka rally - As far as news flow was concerned, 2008 was not short on major developments that included:
    • Bank transactions: EPF's sale of a 25% stake in RHB to the Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Maybank's acquisitions of Pakistan's MCB Bank and Indonesia's BII, Bumi-Commerce's acquisition of a stake in BankThai
    • O&G developments: KNM's RM1.7 billion purchase of Germany's Borsig, MISC's cancellation of its proposed RM3.2 billion RTO of Ramunia and Dialog as well as Wah Seong securing contracts for the Sabah-Sarawak Gas Pipeline
    • Major corporate restructuring: Telekom was split into TM and TMI, MMC proposed a major related-party transaction involving Senai Airport and UEM World's major restructuring exercise.

Defensive nature returns. In line with previous years, the defensive nature of the Malaysian market returned to the fore as the KLCI outperformed all its major regional peers. Even as political turmoil gripped the local market, news flow from the region was equally poor with political unrest in Thailand, recession in Singapore, natural disasters and a massive food scare in China and political uncertainty in Korea. Markets in East Asia performed even worse than the US largely due to deleveraging by US-based funds.

Relief rally peters out. At the time of writing, as we had been predicting since 3Q, the KLCI had indeed staged a relief rally, taking it off its low of 800 points towards the 900 level. However, this rally petered out in the second week of November and selling pressure re-emerged across the region with the ringgit hitting new lows against the US dollar.

1H09 – Not a pretty picture
Financial turmoil leads to global slowdown.While the latter part of 2008 was dominated by news of bank failures in Europe and the US as well as a crisis of con?dence, this is giving way to the reality that the global economy faces a sharp slowdown, if not a recession. While the interest rate cuts by various governments worldwide should help ease the pain, the slowdown in consumer spending is certain to take its toll on economic growth, particularly in 1H09.

Malaysia will not be spared. While our house forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth may appear relatively optimistic at 2.7%, this must be viewed in light of past growth rates of 5.9% in 2006, 6.3% in 2007 and 5.3% in 2008.

The fall in commodity prices, especially oil and CPO, will take its toll on government and corporate revenue. As the global drop in consumer con?dence and spending will reduce demand for Malaysia's electronic exports, we will also see domestic consumption shrinking sharply in 1H09. All in all, 1H09 will not be an easy time for corporate Malaysia.

Spending patterns will change. As the economy slows down, we see the rakyat being squeezed by lower disposable income. While the issue for most of 2008 was high inflation brought about by high petrol prices and electricity tariff adjustments, the concern for 2009 appears to be of reduced income.

From SMEs that would have to cut back on exports and production to the man-in-the-street who faces possible retrenchment, there seems to be very little reprieve for the domestic consumer, who has yet to recover from the high price pressures in mid-2008.

For 2009, spending patterns would definitely shift with non-essential items likely to drop out of most consumers' shopping list. We see Malaysian urban spending shift closer to rural spending patterns with reduced spending on recreation, restaurants, hotels and miscellaneous items.

Not cheap on a regional basis. Looking at the stock market, the pessimistic view on the economy is reinforced by Malaysia's standing as an outperformer during the recent selldown that has rendered it a relatively expensive market compared with its peers.

As it currently stands, Malaysia is the third most expensive market in Asia behind only China and Japan. Our saving grace is the relatively high dividend yield, which reinforces the view of Malaysia as a defensive market.

4QFY08 results season likely to be ugly. While we are hopeful that the 3QFY08 results will be relatively benign given that commodity prices had remained largely firm during the quarter, the collapse in commodity prices and the subsequent global slowdown should hit 4Q numbers rather hard.

With the 4Q results reporting season falling in February 2009, we expect the KLCI to hit a nadir around this period. We see a correlation between the results being announced and the performance of the local market.

Our expectation for a benign 3Q fits in with our view of a 2008 year-end flattish performance for the KLCI but expectation of a weak 4Q results season ties in with our view of a poor 1H09.

2H09 – Hoping for a recovery
Things may turn better in 2H09. Given our expectation that the stock market tends to trade ahead of the economy by six months, we expect a recovery in the KLCI in 2H09 as we believe an economic recovery may come about beginning end-2009. For 2009, we see external factors playing a more crucial role than domestic factors.

We see East Asian economies, especially China, as the key to economic recovery while the US government's rescue plans may also take effect later in 2009. On the domestic front, political uncertainties are expected to ease after the Umno election in March 2009 when the deputy president's position will be determined.

East Asian economies lead the way. While the recent turn of events have proven that the theory of economic decoupling remains a theory, East Asian economies are nonetheless in a much stronger position to assist in the global recovery. China's foreign reserves exceeding US$1.9 trillion far outweigh those held by any other developed economy, perhaps with the exception of Japan's more than US$900 billion.

While its trade surplus should narrow somewhat given its dependence on exports, we believe an aggressive monetary policy by the Chinese government could see it slashing interest rates significantly to prop up domestic spending.

While a double-digit growth rate will likely be out of reach in 2009, most estimates still point to GDP growth of 7% to 8% for China. China still had the capacity for growth during the 2000/2001 tech-bubble recession in the US. China is not a country to shrink from aggressive interest rate cuts, as evident in 1997/1998 and 2000/2001. From a high of 7.47% in 1H08, China has cut its interest rates to 5.58% and we believe it could well be slashed further to 5.3%, which was the low in 2002.

The Chinese government has also indicated that it is not averse to aggressive stimulus packages, having unveiled its own package valued at US$586 billion (RM2.05 trillion) through 2010, a sum equivalent to some 18% of its US$3.3 trillion annual GDP compared to the US' US$700 billion package, which amounts to only some 5% of its annual GDP.

US not going the way of Japan. The current turmoil in the US has been compared with Japan's situation in the early 1990s. While both recessions appear to have been triggered by easy liquidity that led to an asset bubble that eventually burst, the reaction of the US government appears to have been much quicker than the path taken by Japan in the 1990s.

While housing prices in the US fell before the stock market, giving the US Fed more leeway to cut interest rates much faster and more aggressively, it was the other way round in Japan, with the stock market falling before asset prices, leading to the government keeping its interest rates high even as markets tumbled.

The Japanese government was also less aggressive in disbursing stimulus packages that could have spurred a recovery in its economy while the US has already given a US$150 billion tax rebate, US$700 billion in the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) and is now considering another stimulus package. As such, combined with China's ability to spur domestic consumption via interest rate cuts and other stimulus packages, we believe the global economy will recover towards end-2009.

Commodity prices to stabilise. While we had earlier hoped to avoid a global recession and the corresponding collapse in commodity prices, the reality now is quite different, with the World Bank having cut its GDP growth forecast to 1% for 2009 - a recession in all but number.

This, coupled with a reversal in speculation sentiment, drove down commodity prices across the board with CPO and crude oil taking a bashing, albeit at a different pace. For 2009, we see commodity prices gradually stabilising despite the forecast drop in demand.

With the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) having cut supply by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) since early September, it is expected to announce another cut of one million bpd by end-November, with a possibility of more cuts in December if oil prices do not stabilise. Some Opec countries have indicated that a price range of US$70 to US$90 per barrel is an acceptable range. Consistent with our house view of a weakening US dollar after global deleveraging ends, commodity prices should recover in 2009.

Since early 2007, oil prices have been showing a strong negative correlation to the US dollar, as indicated by the Dollar Trade Weighted Index. With a slew of Treasury bills to be issued to fund the US$700 billion bailout plan and further interest rate cuts in the pipeline by the US Federal Reserve, we see a weakening in the US dollar and strengthening oil prices in the coming months.

As for CPO prices, we see a decoupling from oil prices given CPO's far steeper fall in the last few months. With soybean prices at breakeven level, the planting of soybean will ease, which should help support vegetable oil prices. The mandatory use of biodiesel in Indonesia should help reduce the inventory of CPO while the cutback in the use of fertilisers will eventually have an impact on production come 2010.

Our house view on commodity prices is for oil to average at US$60 to US$70 per barrel in 2009 while our average CPO price assumption is RM1,650 per tonne. Given that plantation counters still account for some 15% of the KLCI's weighting, stable CPO prices should allow the KLCI to arrest any further selling pressure.

Malaysia - no repeat of 1998. On the domestic front, Malaysia is in a much better position than it was in 1998 or even 2001. With our foreign reserves having grown four-fold since 1998 and three-fold since 2001, we are in a better liquidity position than we were 10 years ago.

Our non-performing loans level has also fallen significantly from 13.6% in 1998 to 2.4% currently while our loans to deposit ratio is also much healthier at 74.3% compared with 92% in 1998. As such, our banks are not at risk of major defaults and we feel that the entire financial system is much healthier than it was 10 years ago.

We are still looking at a 4% loans growth for 2009.

Inflation easing. While the concern starting from 2Q08 was of stagflation as inflation rates in Malaysia hit a high of 8.5%, we believe this will ease significantly in the coming months. The government has already implemented several petrol price cuts to bring the pump price down from RM2.70 per litre for RON97 to RM1.80 per litre.

The drop in international coal prices is also giving Tenaga Nasional (TNB) less ammunition to argue for an electricity tariff hike in 2009. In fact, the Energy Minister has stated that if coal prices fall consistently to below US$75 per tonne, there should be a tariff cut. Given the government's move to pressure food outlets and hypermarkets to cut prices, we see inflationary pressures easing significantly by 2H09 for an average Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth of 3.4% in 2009 versus 5.8% in 2008. As such, there may be a pick-up in domestic consumption towards the end of 2009.

Malaysians have short memory. Assuming that history repeats itself and a generation spans 20 years, we take a look at the previous bear markets in 1987/88, 1997/98 and 2000/01 and note that the market took an average 18 to 22 months to recover to a reasonable level. In 1987/88, it was 18 months before the market recovered between October ‘87 and March '89. In 1997/98, the bear market stretched some 22 months from August '97 to June '99 while for 2000/01, the bear market lasted 20 months, from June 2000 to February '02. If we take the current bear market as having started from March '08, we see the market recovering by 3Q or 4Q09.

But watch out for banana skins

Politics
Aside from the risk of the global economy taking longer to recover or developing countries being dragged into a recession, we feel that the greatest risk to a recovering market in 2H09 will be politics. While the credibility of the opposition claim of taking over the federal government had somewhat taken a dent since the September 2008 deadline came and went, we do not write it off completely.

Given that foreign direct investment (FDI) is unlikely to return significantly in 2009, any change of government can only lead to greater instability for the nation at this time. At the same time, the long- drawn-out campaign period for the Umno general assembly up to March 2009 could see the domestic political scene continue to remain unstable for some months yet. As such, we only see a market recovery after March '09 when the issue is hopefully resolved.

Corridors may not help
While the growth corridors were generally launched with much fanfare in 2007, the news flow for many of the corridors has slowed down considerably. While we were never too optimistic on the impact of the corridors on the stock market to begin with, the cancellation or postponement of any of the corridors, especially after the political landscape changes in March '09, could create more jitters among foreign investors.

Forecasting a flat KLCI target of 1,020. 2009 target: 1,020 points. With our house estimates of a 4% loans growth, crude oil at US$60 to US$70 per barrel and CPO at RM1,650 per tonne, and the country's still positive GDP growth, we see corporate earnings growing by some 1.8% in 2009.

We derive our 2009 year-end target of 1,020 points after applying a 12 times PER to the KLCI. Over the past 10 years, the KLCI has traded in a wide range with the lows of eight to nine times during the 97/98 financial crisis. Since 2000, the KLCI has traded within a tighter PER range of nine to 30 times with the market reaching a trough in the latter months of 2008. With the market average PER at 16 times, we see a 12 times target PER - which is more than one standard deviation from the mean - as being reasonable as market confidence slowly returns across the globe.

Not a pipe dream
With an upside of some 170 points to our 2009 target, we wish to clarify that this is no pipe dream. Based on the fair value on our buy calls among the top 15 KLCI constituents which make up some 36.8% of the KLCI, achieving our fair values would see the KLCI rise about 89 points. As such, achieving the 1,020-point-year-end target should not be too far out of reach.

The sectors we like. Based on our house view of a depressed 1H09 followed by a potential recovery in 2H, the sectors that we are still overweight on are generally the defensive ones. We remain overweight on only five sectors namely gaming, consumer - food, rubber gloves, steel and utilities.

Investment strategy
Again, based on our market outlook for 2009, we drew up a three-pronged strategy designed to satisfy a broad range of investors:

  • For those with lower risk appetite and who are less keen to try and time the market, we have a list of defensive stocks that should ride out the coming economic storm relatively unscathed
  • For those with a higher risk appetite who believe that the market may recover in 2H, we list out a few value stocks that should provide higher returns when the KLCI rebounds.
  • For those looking to benefit from the downturn, we have also identified a number of downtrading stocks although many of these are not under our regular coverage.

Out of this basket of stocks, we have distilled our top five big-cap picks and top five small-cap picks.

theedgedaily

Pay a price, get the value

Pay a price, get the value

WARREN Buffett once said "Price is what you pay and value is what you get." Price is what it costs an investor to purchase a stock. Value is the subjective number that an investor assigns to the stock.

Price is visible
Price is visible as it is the transacted value at a point in time. Closing price is the most common figure quoted to denote the transacted price for the day. Few people will use medium price, mode price or volume-weighted average price (vwap). Since closing price is the traded price at the end of day, volume-weighted average price should be more reflective of the total transaction for the whole day. For simplicity, most people use day-end price to approximate the average price for the day.

Value is abstract
Value of a stock is more abstract for it is a subjective figure in the mind of each investor, be it an analyst, fund manager, owner, banker or an ordinary investor who participates in the pricing process directly or indirectly. Every stock has a value which may be unknown to most investors who provide different guesses to the actual value. Due to the different background of investors, each of them will attach a different value to a stock. Furthermore, the value of a stock may also vary depending on the objective of an investor (capital gain or dividend income), the time horizon of investment (short-term or long-term) and the expected return. It also depends on the risk profile of the investors.

Different valuation
Different stocks can be or should be valued differently. An asset-based stock can be valued according to the tangible value of its assets such as cash and properties. Under normal circumstances, these assets can be liquidated and disposed off in the market easily. However, under the prevailing conditions where borrowings from banks are difficult and buyers are more cautious to invest, assets may not be able to fetch the right market value. Under such circumstances, it may be appropriate to give some discounts to the assets which are more difficult to sell. This is especially true for some companies where one or two of the term loans are due and refinancing may be difficult at that point in time.

In the case of non-asset related companies, price-earnings (PE) ratio and discounted cash flow (DCF) methods of valuation are more appropriate. Although PE is a reflection of the earnings yield of a stock, most analysts tend to use relative or market PE to peg a value to a stock vis-à-vis the peers. As such, in the bull market, the market PE may be 20 times, and when market is bearish, market PE will be reduced to say 10 times. This is a relative valuation method indicating which stock within the industry is more expensive and which one is relatively cheaper. In a falling market, when a stock falls in price, other stocks will also be downgraded. This is a short-term approach, perhaps useful for arbitrage purposes.

Relative valuation method, however, does not provide an indication to the absolute value of a stock and hence could distract the opinion of long-term investors.

Value - sum of future cash flow
DCF method of valuation equates the present value of future cash flow to the present price paid. The method requires projection of future cash flows which could be a daunting task in view of business uncertainties now. Only a handful of companies have a more predictable cash flow. They are those in utilities business especially those with concession where demands are steady and costs of operation are stable. Majority of companies do not have the luxury of having a steady demand and constant cost. With the prevailing uncertain global outlook, profit forecasts become a challenge and the further one tries to predict, the less accurate it will be.

If Ea is the actual earnings of a company in year t, the equation can be represented by Ea= Et+SDt, where Et is the predicted earnings and SDt is the standard deviation of the predicted earnings for year t. The further one tries to predict, say earnings five years from now, the SD is likely to very large. In other words, future profit could be less accurate if we try to predict too far away, more so, for the more speculative lower liners where the earnings could be very volatile. For simplicity sake, we use earnings E to replace cash flow and the value of a stock, Vo, is shown in Formula 1.

Then, there is the discount factor R, to be used to calculate the net present value of the future earnings. R is also the expected return of an investor. Although in a lower interest rate environment like now, R should be lower. But, due to the uncertain market environment, risk premium is higher and investors are risk adverse resulting the need for higher returns to compensate the courage to foray into the markets. As a result, the expected return, R, of most investors is very high now.

Back to our equation, if we know the average growth, G, of a company's earnings, we can re-arrange the formula of a stock's value as in Formula 1.

Price falls more than value
At any point in time, the price of a stock could be lower or higher than the intrinsic or fundamental value of the stock. Under normal circumstances and when the market is efficiently priced, most of the stocks will be traded around the intrinsic value. For whatever reasons, there may be some overvalued stocks and some undervalued stocks at any one time. The role of market participants is to arbitrage by buying the undervalued and selling the overvalued stocks such that stock prices reflect the true fundamental value.

In a bear market, when fundamentals deteriorate, the intrinsic value of a stock will also fall. But over a longer term, the basic components that make up the intrinsic value of a quality company will not change much. We have seen how most of the blue chips survived the Asian financial crisis and also continued to grow. Some have grown several times bigger.

Main value is management
The main value of a company is the management. As long as it is still the same management running the well-proven company, much of the value of the company is likely to be intact. As an on-going concern, a company has a goodwill which encompasses its brand name, business reputation among customers, financials and creditors, established network of customers, a range of products or services which have been accepted by the market and etc. A proven management will have the ability to manage the business costs, the skills to identify capable employees, the aptitude to produce the right products for the right market, the acumen to determine the market trends and etc. Some of them may even take advantage of the present financial tremor to increase market share or acquire distressed competitors or other companies that are complementary to the existing business.

When we invest in a company, we are actually investing in the management who has been entrusted the stewardship to take care of shareholders' interest. They will sail the company through the stormy financial weather. They will take appropriate actions and pertinent strategies to overcome the economic slowdown.

Price affects value too
Unfortunately, for certain companies the collapse of their share price does affect the values of their companies. This is especially true for highly geared companies. The fall in share price may have several implications on a company. When stock price falls excessively for whatever reason, confidence among bankers, fund managers and suppliers will drop. Sometimes force-selling on the owner's stock may also generate unwarranted anxiety among other stakeholders. Even if the company is still operating well, the sharp fall in price will cast some doubts over the sustainability of the company, as the adage goes "there is no smoke without a fire."

A cash call to reduce borrowing will be difficult or almost impossible if the share price falls below the par value. During times of a financial crisis, banks are likely to be more stringent in lending or otherwise borrowing cost will be much higher. Without the new source of financing, some companies may have to sell off valuable assets to pay off the debts and that affects the intrinsic values of the companies permanently. Even a cash call now will dilute the earnings of company due to issuance of larger number of shares at low price.

For majority of quality companies, the slowdown of the economy will affect earnings over the next two years and the management will take this as a challenge. Tackling the economic cycles is part of the duties of the management. As long as the management can weather through this difficult period, business will most likely be back to normal after the financial crisis. Most well-managed companies in Asia will be faced with the economic deceleration but they will ride through the storm.

Value investing
As such, the reduction in earnings of a quality company during an economic downturn is only temporary. It may have one or two years of earnings setback, but that will not have much impact on the future cash flow and likewise with the intrinsic value. So long as consumers still consume and there is still demand for the company's goods and services, business will be back to normal after the financial crisis.

This type of forward looking investment philosophy is well understood by investment gurus like Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett who always wait for such opportunity to grab "outstanding company at a sensible price rather than generic companies at a bargain price".

Margin of safety
By buying stocks at a big discount from the intrinsic value, Buffett is having good margin of safety, a concept which he postulates in value investing. By margin of safety, he means that downside risk is low. So long as he is not buying at the bottom, he may still suffer some losses along the way. But buying a stock at a big discount is probably a one-time chance in a decade. Without the financial crisis, a quality stock will not fall that much.

In a bear market there are many investors who sell due to panic and there are also many who are forced to sell due to margin calls (banks and brokers sell the collaterised shares after the marked-to-market value of the shares fall below a threshold level). Some funds sell to meet redemption by their investors. Unfortunately, the disposals by a handful of investors caused the price to tank and affected the perceived market value of a company. The fear scattered during the current financial crisis deters even those who may have the capacity to buy from entering the market in a bold way.

Buy fallen quality stocks
Obviously in an economic slump, stock prices fall. Some suffered more losses, while some held up quite well. Poorer-grade stocks which most likely have fallen more are only good for trading but now is not the time. Those who buy for a short-term capital gain are only hoping to catch a technical rebound.

Investment must be on quality stocks especially those that have fallen in line or more than the market. Quality stocks which did not fall are definitely not a good choice at this point in time. In fact, investors may want to sell these stocks and switch to other similar stocks which have fallen.

Ang has 20 years' experience in research and investment. He is currently the chief investment officer of Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd.

theedgedaily

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Investors should consider money market funds

19-12-2008: Investors should consider money market funds

KUALA LUMPUR: When investors are uncertain about risking investments in equities or bonds, money market funds are the best avenue, said AmInvestment Bank fixed income funds chief investment officer Yvonne Phe.

“Money market funds are a forever green thing. It’s parking your money for the next wave, and it keeps you nimble while waiting for the right time to go back into the market. We have been advocating this to a lot of institutional clients and retail clients,” she said.

She added the risk involved was similar to placing money in fixed deposit (FD) accounts, but money market fund returns were higher with the added benefit of being non-taxable.

Furthermore, she said Bank Negara Malaysia may cut the overnight policy rate (OPR) by another 50 basis points in the first quarter of next year.

“The interest rate swap market is a very good indication of how interest rates are going to be. Currently, it is pricing in further cuts in rates,” Phe said at AmInvestment Bank Group’s media briefing on “Malaysian Money Market Funds (Stability vs Calamity in Financial Turmoil)” yesterday.

She also said local investors shouldn’t draw parallels between what happened in the US money market and the Malaysian market. In September 2008, the Reserve Primary Fund “broke the buck” when its net asset value fell three cents below the par of US$1, resulting in a loss of confidence in money funds.

This was because the fund held US$785 million (RM2.75 billion) worth of commercial papers (CPs) and medium term notes issued by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc, which went bankrupt in September. In the US, most money market funds invest up to 60% in CPs that are almost entirely related to credit lending and mortgage.

Phe said the situation in Malaysia was different, as all CPs were non-financial and quasi-government, and were underwritten by banks, leading to a lower risk of fallout and a liquidity crisis. In addition, she said, AmInvestment’s fund managers allocate less than 5% of their money market fund assets into CPs, preferring to allocate assets in FDs and corporate bonds.

“In a way your investment is guaranteed by the Malaysian central bank as whatever deposit we collect is passed to the banks, so indirectly you are guaranteed for all placements,” she said.

She added that AmInvestment Group was planning to launch another money market fund in the first quarter of 2009 in addition to its three existing funds: AmCash Management, AmIncome, and AmAl-Amin.

AmInvestment Bank is the largest fixed income unit trust fund manager in Malaysia, overseeing about RM13 billion.

theedgedaily