Keep an eye on good small-cap stocks: OSK

INVESTORS should start keeping an eye out for good small-cap stocks to buy in the next one or two months, as this is when interest is expected to return to the
stock market, says OSK Research.

Its top five picks are QL Resources, Kossan Rubber, KPJ Healthcare, Hektar-REIT and Wah Seong.

"Now is about the right time to keep your eye on the good small caps. You should start positioning yourself to buy in one or two months' time," head of research Chris Eng told Business Times.

He expects the market to fall towards the end of this month ahead of the May corporate earnings season, which is expected to be bleak.

OSK, in its latest annual compilation of small-cap "jewels", singled out 50 stocks with a market capitalisation of under RM1 billion for investors' consideration.

Among these, the top five were liked for their "safe haven" characteristics, promising dividends and resilient business models.

"We believe (they) would appeal to a broad spectrum of investors with differing risk appetite and risk-reward profiles," OSK said in a note to clients yesterday.

Of the five, QL Resources, a diversified agriculture group, and rubber glove maker Kossan Rubber are already widely followed by the investment community because of their recession-proof businesses.

QL, Asia's biggest producer of semi-processed raw fish paste, has managed to grow revenue for the last 20 straight years and is poised to do the same this year, buoyed by the extended growth of its marine-product manufacturing segment.

Kossan, which OSK says is one of the most efficient manufacturers of nitrile rubber gloves, is expected to yield margins that are higher than conventional natural rubber gloves.

KPJ, meanwhile, is OSK's top exposure to the healthcare sector given its expanding portfolio of hospitals nationwide and overseas.

"We feel that the prospects of the healthcare sector in the country remain bright due to the scarcity of medical services," it remarked.

Hektar-REIT, meanwhile, is liked for its generous dividend yield of 12 per cent, the highest of OSK's 50 small-cap companies.

As for oil and gas firm Wah Seong, it is seen as well-poised to capture a bigger slice of the worldwide pipe-coating and compressor business.

OSK has a "buy" recommendation on all five stocks.

Businesstime

雖風險重重 產託派息仍可觀

中國報

我國產業投資信托（REITs）這兩年或面臨再融資、重整資本結構及重新估值風險，惟該領域仍具彈性，派息依然可觀。

馬銀行投資銀行分析員王吉騰指出，本地經濟走軟，產托今年及明年面臨3大挑戰，包括再融資以應付高利息成本、重整資本結構以加強資產負債表，以及為更低租金重新估值。

報告指出，最容易受上述因素挑戰的產托，依序為工業、零售及辦公樓產托。

截至去年12月，國內產托資產負債比介于11%至41%，今年需再融資12億4000萬令吉短期債，該風險仍受控制。

此外，我國高負債產托或需增發信托單位、強化資產負債長。在新加坡的普遍方式是發售附加單位。

馬銀行投資銀行則認為，派息再投資計劃具長期吸引力，將逐漸受歡迎，而脫售資產則是最后一道防線。

另外，我國資產值在去年達致顛峰，雖未出現資產泡沬，卻可能重新估值。

“預測2009至2010年租金下調10%至15%，是合理的。”

不過，報告指出，市場已將零資產增長，以及租金下滑等因素納入考量。

目前，國內產托價格比淨資產值低14%至45%。

“以產托9%至13.7%派息回酬而言，它已納入房地產回酬跌9%至35%的可能性，在最糟情況仍可維持5.7%至9.1%回酬。”

首選桂嘉資本

據馬銀行投資銀行分析報告，首選產托包括桂嘉資本信托（QCAPITA，5123，主板產業投資）及愛可思產托（AXREIT，5106，主板產業投資）。

“UOA產托（UOAREIT，5110，主板產業投資）及超峰產托（TWRREIT，5111，主板產業投資）的辦公樓領域也受青睞。”

此外，升喜產托（STAREIT，5109，主板產業投資）則是主要被收購對象。

產托4月3日走勢
股項	開市（令吉）	閉市（令吉）	波動（仙）	成交量
桂嘉資本信託	0.83	0.84	+2	4萬6000股
愛可思產託	1.35	1.33	-1	12萬2000股
超峰產託	0.91	0.91	-	2萬1000股
UOA產託	0.995	0.995	-	-
升喜產託	0.75	0.76	+2	20萬1700股

Planning for retirement

Only 34% of Malaysians putting aside money regularly for retirement funds

YOUNG parents Xavier Arumugam and Kavitha Nair has been putting aside a fixed sum every month into their savings accounts as part of their retirement nest egg after deducting expenses for the household, medical insurance as well as education plans for their children and house loan installment.

Both of them had also voluntarily increased their employees contribution to 15% for the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) compared to the usual contribution rate of 11%.

“We are aware though, that we do not have a formal retirement plan in place besides the EPF,” Kavitha admits.

According to Great Eastern Life Assurance (M) Bhd executive vice-president and chief marketing officer Loke Kah Meng, only 34% of Malaysians are putting aside money regularly for their retirement funds, but these may not take into account inflation, the rising cost of living and medical expenses in future, which could be a major financial burden.

“Although EPF savings is one of the main channels to provide for retirement, 99.9% of the contributors would withdraw their EPF savings in one lump sum once they reach 55 years of age and 70% of them would use up all their EPF savings in just three years post-retirement,” Loke notes.

Loke adds that longer life expectancy, delayed marriage and having children later would leave the retirees in a vulnerable position in their old age as they need to need to set aside medical funds for themselves and education funds for their children.

Meanwhile, Prudential Assurance Malaysia Bhd chief marketing officer Thomas Wong, survey findings shows that although Malaysians have a high propensity to save (72% claimed that they do save for retirement), 41% do not have a concrete plan on how to build their retirement fund.

“They just save as much as they can now and hope they will have enough to cover their retirement needs,” Wong says. Wong adds that among those who save for retirement, 77% are putting their money in low-yielding savings vehicles such as bank fixed deposits and savings accounts to accumulate their nest egg.

“Contrary to the common belief that keeping our money in the bank is the best way to preserve our capital, this instrument may not be good enough given that interest rates of bank deposits can hardly outrun inflation,” Wong says.

He also notes that most Malaysians do not segregate their savings for retirement, which made matters worse.

“This means, all their monies are lumped together as general savings. More alarmingly, out of those who consciously separate their savings for retirement, 83% have said that they would use the money should other needs arise,” he says.

This is indeed a risky situation because if they are not careful, they may not have enough money for their retirement, Wong explains.

In addition, a staggering 73% do not seek advice from financial professionals – a behaviour that compounds Malaysians’ poor retirement planning ability further.

“All these could probably explain why about 39% of those surveyed see themselves working beyond the mandatory retirement age, citing income boost as the main reason for doing so,” Wong adds.

Loke advises that instead of relying solely on one’s EPF and personal savings, Malaysians should consider early financial planning, which would save them the stress of dealing with insufficient retirement funds or seeking prolonged employment to ensure financial stability.

“We could plan ahead with investment-linked insurance plans to counter the effects of inflation. In addition, there is also the need to consider providing for your medical needs after you have retired and would be no longer entitled to medical coverage provided by your employer,” Loke says.

Meanwhile, Wong advises that there are a variety of choices available when it comes to building your retirement fund.

“Depending on your risk appetite, investment horizons and affordability, you can invest in properties, equities, unit trusts and investment-linked insurance to name a few. The key is to have a sound investment strategy that is the ability to balance risks and returns effectively according to the desired investment tenure,” Wong says.

Nevertheless, it is always advisable to contact a professional financial advisor or a wealth planner who can provide advice on how to best go about securing your retirement based on your financial circumstances, priorities and needs, Wong adds.

睡眠不足 易引发多种疾病

“养生无他，睡食二要”，足见睡眠是许多健康长寿者的秘诀所在。但随着上班族生活脚步加快，经济整体形势令人堪忧，睡眠问题更成为困扰。

　　研究显示，长期睡眠不好不仅危害健康，也严重影响工作效率和生活质量。

　　睡眠好比是健康的蓄水池，睡个好觉就是健康生活方式之一。

　　国大医院1996年一项调查显示，每1000名新加坡人中，有153人有睡眠问题。

超过三成国人有睡眠问题

　　林丽明医师说：“近13年来，由于人口老化、互联网的全球化、经济快速发展，生活工作压力无限增大，睡眠问题日渐加重，从临床来看，估计超过30％国人有睡眠问题。”

　　林医生警惕说，长期睡眠不好易引发肥胖、高胆固醇、高血压、代谢综合征、心脏病、中风、焦虑症、忧郁症、精神分裂症等，严重患者有猝死风险。

睡一个好觉，胜似吃补药。良好的睡眠是健康生活的保障。 (新华社图）

睡眠障碍高发群

　　中国睡眠研究会日前在“世界睡眠日”之际，援引中国一项调查指出，近四成中国人存在各种睡眠问题。

　　中国睡眠研究会表示，企业中高管理层、影视传媒、医护人员是睡眠障碍的高发群，睡眠不仅危害健康，也严重影响工作效率和生活质量。

　　有研究资料表明，严重睡眠不足已成为中青年罹患中、晚期胃癌的首要原因。

　　近五年来，中国19至35岁年青人的胃癌发病率比30年前增加一倍，每天连续加班、熬夜应酬已是白领为生计作出睡眠牺牲的普遍生活状态。

熬夜恐致糖尿病

　　美国一项调查显示，每天睡眠不足6小时的人容易出现血糖水平异常，增加患二型糖尿病风险。

　　研究人员用6年时间，追踪1455名志愿者的工作及每周平均睡眠时间后得出结论：平均每晚睡不足6小时的人，发生空腹血糖受损的几率比每天睡6小时及以上者多出4.56倍；若不引起重视，易引发二型糖尿病。

　　睡眠专家尼尔·斯坦利说，有证据证明，缺少睡眠会影响控制食欲的荷尔蒙，吃得多容易肥胖，给糖尿病拉响警报。

　　之前有研究显示，儿童如果睡眠不足会引发肥胖、抑郁和高血压；中年人睡眠不足会增加患上传染病、心脏病、中风和癌症的风险。

　　美国疾病控制和预防中心建议，成年人每天需要７至９小时睡眠。

认识失眠病因：

　　情志所伤、劳逸失度，脑力疲劳过度、更年期、久病体虚、饮食不节，及先天禀赋不足等导致阴阳失调，阳不入阴而致失眠。

症状：

1）虚证：

　　胃气失和、心脾两虚、阴虚火旺、心胆气虚、心肾不交、肝郁血虚等。

2）实证：

　　热扰神明、肝郁化火、痰热内扰、瘀血内阻等。

治疗：

　　中医治疗在于调整阴阳，以中药、针灸、推拿和拔罐结合治失眠，并嘱咐病患调节生活节奏，得以精神放松。

中医改善睡眠药膳

龙枣汤

　　材料：龙眼肉10至30克、大枣10枚

　　做法：水煎煮，临睡前服用

　　适用：辗转反侧，卧而难眠的心脾血虚型患者。常由思虑过度、劳逸失调、内伤心脾造成。

酸百莲羹

　　材料：酸枣仁15克，百合30克，莲子肉30克

　　做法：将材料煮沸30分钟，加白糖适量，睡前2小时服，亦可放入莲子芯；

　　适用：易入睡，但夜半醒后即不能再入睡的阴虚火旺型患者。

　　长期睡眠不好易引发肥胖、高胆固醇、高血压、代谢综合征、心脏病、中风、焦虑症、忧郁症、精神分裂症等，严重患者有猝死风险。——林丽明医师

《联合早报》

人寿保险

一般上，一个健全的理财模式必须涵盖风险管理、储蓄及投资，而且必须有规律地在进行。建议把薪金或酬劳的10％保留於风险管理，30％於储蓄及投资，剩下的60％，就拿来应付每月的开销及花费。

您希望拥有基本的人寿保障外，也希望拥有一份具有储蓄成分的保单，以便在没有任何事故发生时，所缴付的保费不会白白流失。

市场上有许多不同种类的保单可以符合您的需求，如传统分红保单和投资联结保单。这些产品除了提供基本 的人寿保险外，通常都可以再附加额外的保障（如36种危疾、终身残障、医药、意外等）和提供储蓄的功能。而投资联结保单的其中一项特质，就是它比传统保单 更具伸缩性，让保单人可以完全依据本身的需求，来决定所缴付的保费，在保险保障与储蓄之间做出适当的分配。

如果选择把较多的保费放在购买保险上，那投资或储蓄的部分就会相对地减少。当然，如果经济能力允许的话，您也可以随时增加保费数额，以购买更多基金单位来建立您的储蓄金。这一笔储蓄将会留在您的保单内，增加您保单的现金价值。

利息会比银行公积金高

传统分红保单及投资联结保单的回酬潜能，长远的一般预期回酬，会比银行储蓄户口或公积金利息来得理想。

但是，不管是传统分红保单或是投资联结保单的投资，都存有一定的风险，使实际回酬与预期回酬有所差异。尤其购买投资联结保单，并选择您所要投资的基金时，请务必先了解自己所可以负荷的风险及投资目标。

另外，投资联结保单也具有透明度；身为保单持有者，您将会每年收到保险公司所寄来的常年简报，简报里将清楚列出您保费的分配、单位价格和总数等资料，让您对保单和投资了如指掌。而且，如果您有紧急需求，投资联结保单还可以让您作出提款，以应付不时之需，没有附加利息。

我们建议委托一位受认证的理财规划师，以协助根据您本身的需求做一个完整的规划，并测试您承担风险的能力 (Risk Profiling)。同时，您也必须让规划师知道您目前所拥有的保障，以让规划师可以更全面及深入地设计最适合您的保单。

请记得，最适合保单持有者的保单，就是最好的保单

定期保险（Term Insurance）

受保人死亡才赔偿

定期保险是市面上结构最简单的人寿保险保单，也称为暂时性的保单。

在定期保险的合约下，保险公司只有在受保人在保单阐明的期限内死亡的情况下，才会作出理赔。

以下是定期保险的一些主要好处：

1 以较低的保费，获得相当好的基本死亡利益和完全与终身残废利益（包含附加保障利益）。它是一种以较低保费，获取较大保障利益的保单。

2 适合寻求特定或无限期保障的投保人。因此，即使您不需要受保时，仍获得一定的保障承诺，也不需感到惊奇。

一些人认为，定期保险适合以下情况者作为暂时的保险用途：

* 对于那些已经有家庭，但却收入有限的人士。 * 保障一家公司的关键人物。

* 作为投资型保单的附加保单。举例：作为一般人寿保单的家庭收入附加保障利益，在一个家庭失去收入时提供所需的保障。

* 作为贷款的附加保障，例如房屋贷款保险。

以下则是定期保险的主要缺点：

1 如果在受保期限内，受保人还在世，保单不会理赔。也就是说，只要一日还生还，投保人已缴付的保费，将无法取回分文。既然这份保单只是在特定期限内保障死亡 利益，它不含有现金退保价值（Cash Surrender Value）、缴足价值（Paid-Up Value）及保单贷款（Policy Loan）等便利。

2 不全面的保障 (即不涵盖严重疾病、医药卡等利益）。除非它是附上有限的相关附加利益，但最终可能整体保险费用却更高昂。

3 无保证/自动更新的保单,保障期限届满后，无法担保支付同样数额的保费。对于保单期限届满后，仍需要有关保障的受保人，或是最糟情况下，受保人的健康状况出现重大的变化，更是非常关键。

生活情况改善时重估配套

总的来说，对于那些希望在当前这个金融风暴的非常时期，以较低保费换取较大保障的受保人来说，定期保险可能可以在某个程度上，满足他们的需求。

不过，当生活情况改善时，我们非常鼓励这类受保人重新评估他们的寿险保障配套。

世界上没有一种符合所有人需求的保单。

在此，我们要再次的强调，受保人若要获取进一步的资料，必须咨询您们的保险代理/保险顾问的专业意见，并根据您们个人的情况和需求，量身订做更适合个人所需的方案。

現金流強‧週息率高‧本益比低‧股價低估‧10上市公司或私有化

2009-03-20 11:54

（吉隆坡）股市表現低迷，導致公司股價嚴重被低估，引發私有化潮，去年迄今有36家上市公司被私有化，市場普遍揣測會有更多私有化計劃排隊出爐。

根據4大因素評估

聯昌研究根據4大因素評估，點名最有可能被私有化的10家上市公司，包括亞洲航空（AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服組）、ASTRO公司（ASTRO,5076,主板貿服組）、大馬交易所（BURSA,1818,主板金融組）、億順機構（EKSONS,9016,主板工業產品組）、百利金國際（PELIKAN,5231,主板消費品組）、普騰（PROTON,5304,主板消費品組）、名勝世界（RESORTS,4715,主板貿服組）、陳唱摩多（TCHONG,4405,主板消費品組）、宇琦科技（UCHITEC,7100,主板工業產品組）和緯鉅集團（WELLCAL,7231,主板工業產品組）。

這4項因素包括強大淨現金流、週息率強穩持續、低本益比和低股價對賬面值。

聯昌研究列出77家有可能被私有化的公司，涵蓋曾提出私有化但最後取消、長期盛傳被私有化以及股價和估值嚴重滑落的公司，而上述10家符合上述所有條件，被認為是最有可能的私有化目標。

聯昌指出，過往的紀錄顯示，大股東提出的私有化獻購價，較最後作價平均溢價17%，當中還未納入消息公佈後的股價漲幅。

去年迄今36公司私有化

2008年的私有化活動頻密，全年共34家公司涉入，20家或逾50%是在下半年宣佈，當時正是外圍經濟放緩和金融風暴效應最強大之際，馬股節節敗退，股價和估值陷入歷史新低，為大股東提供了私有化的機會。

2009年第一季有兩家上市公司被私有化，即IOI集團（IOICORP,1961,主板種植組）私有化IOI產業（IOIPROP,1635,主板產業組）、大股東丹斯里哈林全購哈林馬芝敏（HALIM,7102,主板貿服組）。

私有化一般不離三個考量，即股價顯著下跌、估值被嚴重低估和擁有鬆動現金流或強勁資產負債表。

當下經濟放緩，淨現金水平是大股東私有化的關鍵因素，淨現金的多寡直接反映資產負債表狀況，也間接顯示業務的獲利能力和貢獻現金能力。

儘管很多公司本益比跌至新低，但未必確保不景氣期間持續獲利；以股價對賬面值因素作考量，準確性亦打了折扣，例如消費業務相關公司，和業務性質貢獻強勁現金流領域如博採和電訊，將因為龐大現金儲備和較高派息率水平，無可避免推動股價對賬面值至較高水平。

10大潛在私有化公司

亞洲航空

大股東丹斯里費南達斯去年因融資問題而功虧一簣，估計融資問題一旦解決將捲土重來。

股價跌破1令吉，但估值昂貴，旗下的A360飛機組群，以低於市價買進突顯蘊藏價值。

ASTRO公司

終止印尼業務成功降低營運風險，加上印度的營運風險和成本較低，不排除大股東Usaha Tegas有意私有化。

股價跌至歷來最低，10%的週息率為媒體類股最高。

大馬交易所

管理層不曾提及私有化，可能性不大。然而，私有化並不影響拓展業務大計，相信私營化後的成事機會更高。

股價僅剩去年的一半，本益比減至3.5倍，每股現金仍高達1令吉61仙。

億順機構

盈利表現最穩定的木材股，經濟放緩期間仍獲利。大股東持有45%股權，若私有化僅需4500萬令吉資金。

百利金國際

主要市場的歐洲經濟衰退，衝擊股價下挫90%，市值更挫至5500萬美元，惟其強勁的國際品牌商譽，或吸引區域公司併購。

普騰

策略股東至今仍未有下文，打擊股價下跌47%，現更低於每股淨現金1令吉64仙，加強大股東國庫控股私有化的可能。

名勝世界

因業務模式成功和擁有逾40億令吉現金，市場長期揣測大股東雲頂（GENTING,3182,主板貿服組）有意私有化，但相信機會極微，保留上市地位有助業務透明化，亦可善用現金進行併購。

陳唱摩多

經濟放緩、消費情緒冷卻、車市銷量下降和銀行嚴格審批貸款，影響股價半年來下挫27%，或引起管理層考慮私有化，大股東陳氏家族持股接近50%。

宇琦科技

從2007年6月的3令吉42仙高峰下滑74%，歐洲施行的新能源政策衝擊估值直插谷底。每股淨現金達40仙，私有化可降低成本代價，最終胥視大股東的意願。

緯鉅集團

工業橡膠管業務的抗跌性強，正全力拓展市場，每股30仙的淨現金水平，強力支撐股價，強勁的週息率水平足以抵銷貸款私有化的成本。

現金狀況是最大因素

現金狀況是私有化的最大因素，在77家公司中，只有25家是淨現金公司，主要來自博彩、煙草、飲料、種植和媒體業。

5大現金公司是普騰、馬航（MAS,3786,主板貿服組）、大馬交易所、億順機構和宇琦科技。

有逾300家上市公司，截至2008年12月31日屬淨現金水平，其中泰高機構（TAMCORP,0048,MESDAQ科技組）的每股現金比例高達693%，金獅林業（LIONFIB,8486,二板貿服組）的每股現金比例則達330%水平。

然而，股票流通率不足的弊病，導致這類公司遭忽略。

週息率成重要考量

回酬也是私有化原因，因此週息率成為重要考量，因為私有化涉及貸款，利息以基貸率+1%計算，利率成本達6.5%，因為公司的週息率必須超越6.5%，77家公司中其中18家公司符合條件。

星洲日報／財經‧2009.03.20

Incorporating probability in investment

There are risks in every investment. Along with the risks, there is also an expected return. The risks of an investment could mean the possibility of losing some of the capital otherwise known as Value at Risk (VAR). Risks can also be referred to as the uncertainty that the expected return (Re) is not achieved or the actual return (Ra) is lower than Re.

Investment is a calculated bet
In view of the uncertainty involved, whenever an investment is made, the investment can be considered as a bet. Although the term “bet” sounds very much like gambling, but unlike gambling, investment is not entirely based on pure luck. Even in gambling, be it casino or number forecasting games, there is the probability of outcome and prize payout. Simple probability computations based on payout rates show that the final payout is always less than the betted amount. As such, when wagering in these games, the returns are always negative.

In the case of investment, the bet refers more towards the uncertainty of the return, even though the risk is a calculated one after having taken into consideration the potential loss as well as the potential return that can be derived from such a bet.

When we refer to an investment as a bet, we simply mean that an investment has a risk of losing money and that is a fact. Each investment should be seen separately and independently. An array of investments makes a portfolio of calculated bets.

Mental calculation
Many investors use mental calculations to decide whether an investment is worth considering or not. Experienced investors will use his or her past knowledge to make a decision. Based on this valuable skill, a quick response can be made without performing much computation. As such, experience is very important, and it helps a lot in making quick decisions — especially during such periods of volatility.

However, for those who have limited experience, additional homework is needed to calculate and determine the return and risk trade-off. In many cases, the expected returns and probabilities cannot be determined easily, however, systematic procedures in making return and risk computations can still provide the lead.

High and low probability
The return from an investment can be simplified as follows:

Expected Return = profit from a bet x probability of occurrence; or
Re = Pi x pi

Under normal circumstances, a high probability (or high certainty), comes with low profit (a good example is fixed deposits in a bank). Similarly, a low probability event (or lower certainty) is most likely to be compensated with a high possible profit (a typical example is share investment). It is very rare, or unheard of, to have an investment giving good profit and also high probability (unless it is a Ponzi scheme). Such “opportunity” calls for closer scrutiny. Sensible investors will avoid low possible return of an investment, which has a low probability of occurrence.

Two-scenario probability
In most events, there are two scenarios — pno if the event does not happen, and pyes if the event happens.

Re = Pyes x pyes + Pno x pno, where Pyes is the profit if the expected event happens and Pno is the profit if the expected event does not happen.

A simple example is a guaranteed fund whereby 90% of the fund is locked into a zero-coupon bond to provide the capital guarantee and the balance 10% of the fund is used to bet on an idea. If the idea does not work, Pno = 0. Assuming the idea can yield a return of 80%, Pyes = 80%, and the fund manager betting on the idea has a 60% probability of hitting it right, then pyes = 60%, and correspondingly the chance of betting wrongly is 40% (pno = 40%.)

Since the bond will mature to give its original capital value, the profit will entirely come from the investment portion whereby the expected return is:

Re = Pyes x pyes + Pno x pno
Re = 80% x 0.6 + 0% x 0.4
= 48%

As only 10% of the fund is invested in the bet, the eventually return is 48% x 10% = 4.8% yield to investors.

Using probabilityin technical trades
Many people like to use technical tools to time the market. Technical indicators rely on past price and volume data to provide certain signals, and some of these signals are used as buy or sell indicators. Technical chartists know that there is no guarantee that charts can be right all the time. The technicians know that charts can also be wrong, as there could be other events that caused the price to move against the predictions. Some will include emergence of new buyers or new sellers, which have not been picked up by previous trades.

For illustration, assuming the support-resistance levels are derived from the historical price pattern of a stock, say in the case of Tanjong plc. The price of Tanjong hit a low of RM12.20 two times in July (A, B), then it tested the level again in August (C) (see chart).

The probability that support C could be broken was lower than 50%, maybe say 35%. The price subsequently recovered to RM13.50, before heading towards the RM12.20 support zone again. Based on the past three attempts at RM12.20 there seemed to be some buyers (some may call them “invisible hands”) willing to buy or support the price at RM12.20. As such, the probability that Tanjong would go below RM12.20 support level in September (D) was low, say 25%. Therefore, it was a good entry level around D.

After rebounding from D, the price tested RM12.20 again at E in October. Again, the chances of support E being broken could be remote say 15%, but this time the support was unfortunately broken and a sell signal was obvious. The share price fell nearly 20% after the support was broken.

This is just an illustration. Confidence level can be incorporated to determine the strength of the technical signal, and the accuracy of the signal is used to determine how a bet can be made. If the confidence level is high, then a larger position can be placed for the bet. On the other hand, if we are not too certain about a technical signal, the bet could be 50/50 right or wrong — or marginally, 55/45 right or wrong, which may not be very profitable.

What we want is to select a bet where the downside is low if we are wrong, and reap a good profit if we are right. Coming back to Tanjong’s case, the maximum upside purely based on the chart is only RM1.30 (RM13.50 minus RM12.20) or 10%. The downside is unknown from the chart’s point of view. To minimise risk, a cut loss strategy must be put in place to limit the loss, say a maximum of RM0.20 or 2%, by squaring off the position at RM12.00 if the price deteriorates beyond RM12.20.

At point D,
Re = Pyes x pyes + Pno x pno
= (1.30) x 0.75 + (-0.20) x 0.25
= 0.975 - 0.05
= 0.925

Each trade at point D can probably make RM0.925 or 7.6%. Using this method, one can estimate where we stand if we take the bet and how the risk/return will trade off.

At point E,
Re = Pyes x pyes + Pno x pno
= (1.30) x 0.85 + (-0.20) x 0.15
= 1.105 - 0.03
= 1.075

Point E was supposed to be a more profitable entry level, with a potential profit of RM1.075 or 8.8% per trade. Unfortunately, the market came down and a cut loss strategy must be immediately put in place.

Using probability in news
Many people also like to trade on news. Assuming in a speculation, rumours that a company will get a contract caused the share price to go up from RM5.00 to RM5.40. If success in getting the contract will add RM0.80 to the bottom line of the company, then the share price may eventually move to RM5.80 — ie, a further upside of RM0.40 per share. If the news is false or the company is not able to get the contact, then the share price should fall back to its original position of RM5.00.

Assuming that the chance the company will secure the contract is 70%, we can then compute the expected return from purchasing the stock at RM5.40 as follows :

Re = Pyes x pyes + Pno x pno
= (0.40) x 0.7 + (-0.40) x 0.3
= 0.28 - 0.12
= 0.16

The expected profit Re from the above bet is RM0.16 or 3%. If the return is very small, a review is needed to re-assess the probability pyes to determine whether the 70% likelihood is realistic or not.

Using probability in takeover
In a voluntary general offer (GO) to take over a listed company, the share price would go up to a level several percentage points short of the GO price. Assuming the price surges from RM3.00 prior to the GO announcement to RM3.68, and the GO price is set at RM4.00. The potential upside if the deal is completed is RM0.32 per share.

The reason why there is still an 8% discount from the GO price is the uncertainty that the GO may be aborted for any reason. Some of the possibilities include difficulty in raising the needed funds, inability to secure more than 50% of the votes to make the GO unconditional, approval of the authorities, etc.

Assuming in this GO deal that the probability the deal can be completed is 90%, perhaps the acquirer is a government-linked agency which is more determined to take the company private. The expected return Re from investing in the stock while waiting for the completion of the GO is:

Re = Pyes x pyes + Pno x pno
= (0.32) x 0.9 + (-0.68) x 0.1
= 0.288 - 0.068 = 0.22

The GO will probably provide a return of RM0.22 per share or 6% return, which is attractive for the high degree of certainty.

Complex scenario
The above examples are illustrations whereby the deals are either on or off, true or false. In real life, there are many deals which are much more complicated. Some could be a three-stage scenario, whereby the probability is up, sideways or down.

In most cases, the probability is not so discrete. It is in a continuous form represented by a normal distribution. The outcome of such a bet is the expected return Re and the standard deviation of return, o. A big o means that the risk is high and the normal distribution has fat tails from the mean. A small o means the risk is lower and the normal distribution is concentrated around Re.

Examples of non-discrete events are the probability that a share price will go up 20% in three months, the probability that the gold price will exceed its recent high of US$1,000 (RM3,620) per oz, etc. Based on past volatility of the price, predictions can be made on such probabilities, and they are widely used by investment banks to design various structured products.

Hedge funds use probability
The probability concept in investment is widely used in the hedge fund world. Each investment idea is viewed individually in terms of risk and return. The concept is rationale and highly objective. The expected return of each idea is computed, and a simple comparison will allow the investment manager to determine which idea is a better bet. Since there are likely to be many investment ideas coming in at any moment, the computer is needed to filter through the huge amount of data.

By putting in the estimated expected return and corresponding probability into the computer, better bets will be selected by the computer for the investment manager’s consideration. If the computer programme is reliable and the input data on expected returns and probabilities are reasonable estimates, the selected investment ideas can be taken as buy or sell signals which can even be sent directly to the dealers for execution. This becomes the basis of programme trading.

Many hedge funds use quantitative methods to trade. In this way, hedge funds using quant methods can have many investment ideas or bets to choose from by churning the voluminous amount of data, which can range from economic data such as interest rates, inflation, imports and exports figures, loan growth, etc or technical data such as price and volume or even fundamental data such as earnings growth, analyst upgrade/downgrade ratio, market price earnings (P/E), market price/book ratio, earnings yield-interest rate differential, etc.

In short, investment is not a certain game. Hence, investors must develop a habit of using probability in each investment decision.

Ang has 20 years’ experience in research and investment. He is currently the chief investment officer of Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 30, 2009.

每月撥10%收入 為孩子存教育基金

許多人都重視子女教育，例如華人常言道：“再窮也不能窮教育”。

為了提供兒女更好的教育，有者在孩子還小時，就送往收費昂貴的幼稚園，甚至國際學校就讀。

時間飛逝，從嬰兒時期到孩子入學期間，為人父母應提早規劃子女教育費，才不影響財務狀況。

注重兒女教育固然重要，但前提是具備能力或提早做好財務準備。

那該如何選擇和安排，才不會影響財務狀況？

大馬財務規劃理事會（MFPC）秘書註冊財務規劃師張晉雄回應《中國報》說，從幼兒教育到正式入學，都是一筆龐大開銷，父母應提早預算，確保可以負擔相關費用。

他建議，教育基金應該佔父母每月總收入（不管雙薪還是單薪家庭）的5%至10%。

若是教育費用，就不應該超過總收入的10%，宜介于5%至10%。

“例如，若家庭總收入為5000令吉，教育開銷應少于500令吉。”

視能力要求而定

從托兒所、幼稚園，再到中小學、大專院校，開銷只會越來越高；即使未正式入學的幼兒院開銷，一般已介于300至500令吉，有者更高達千元。

張晉雄建議，已有生兒育女計劃的新婚夫妻，可提早準備教育基金，好減輕日后教育費。

他提醒說，收費和教學素質不一定成正比，例如收費昂貴的幼稚園，素質不一定最佳，最終選擇應視父母能力和要求而定。

但在某些情況下，例如父母工作性質、調派海外工作等，送兒女前往國際學校就讀，就比較方便日后轉校，也不影響兒女課程進度。

國際學校的課程體制一般相同，不會制度或有差異，例如英制或澳制。

价值投资值不值 五年以后便可知

在

现 代历史上，投资者曾两度经历过这样的不景气：一次是30年代的华尔街，另一次是90年代的日本。那两次危机告诉我们该有何期待呢？法国兴业证券(SG Securities)反向投资策略师詹姆斯•蒙特尔(James Montier)对数据进行了分析，发现了一些有趣的现象。

一言以蔽之：如果我们落到日本的地步，价值投资者会赚到钱。如果我们最后到了大萧条的程度，那么接下来的几年里，任何股市战略都不会管用，这是无庸置疑的。

先看看大萧条。1929-1932年，股市全线崩溃。低成本“价值股”和所有其他股票一样惨。具有讽刺意味的是，一些企业实现了不错的利润。不过对它们的股东却毫无助益。在那可怕的三年里，整个金融体系的“去杠杆”规模庞大，盈利的企业股价也纷纷下跌。

不 过，日本的情况并非如此。当然，从1990年到现在，整体股指跌了很多。一只简单的指数基金会让你每年平均亏掉约4%。指数基金投资者往往信奉“有效市场 假说”──也就是说你无法跑赢市场。不过没有人会对那些遵循本杰明•格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)和大卫•多德(David Dodd)“价值投资”战略的人这样说。这两位合着了《证券分析》(Security Analysis)一书。

法国兴业证券(SG Securities)的蒙特尔发现，一个在日本长达18年的熊市中始终坚持“价值投资”战略的投资者实际上每年能赚3%左右。当时股指的下挫大部分是因 为金融类股和其他下跌的“增长型”股票或是“热门股”。只要你避开这类股票，你的收益就不会太糟糕。

投资于绝对回报型基金类的投资者获得的收益还要高。这类基金可以买进价值股，然后作空所谓的增长型股票。这种战略的年回报率为12%，即便同一时期日经指数从39,000点暴跌至了约7,200点。

那么，我们眼下这场危机是那一种呢：30年代的还是90年代的？

大萧条是一场规模难以想像的经济灾难。美国工业产值减半。价格连续三年每年约跌10%。不错，灾难可能会再次发生。任何了解金融危机历史的人都知道什么是“晴天霹雳”。不过30年代的经济知识尚未发展完善。政府用限制性关税和货币紧缩来维系金本位制，结果遏制了经济。

如今，我们对形势的理解可能并不比那时更正确，但我们确实是知道得更多了。当然，现在美国在全球经济中的重要性也远不及从前了。

人 们谈论的是金融危机，而实际上我们面临着两个危机。西方消费者欠了太多的债。不过这个问题通常可以用通货膨胀、削减支出、冲减资产和提供救助加以解 决。（顺便提一句，在假定所有的消费者都变得不名一文之前，请记住：很多人并非如此──亚洲消费者的腰包就塞得鼓鼓的。或许，在适当的时候，苹果公司 (Apple)只需要减少在美国的笔记本电脑销售，增加亚洲地区的销售。）

第二个危机涉及到全球金融机构内部隐藏的曾经价值数万亿美元、 如今不值一钱的衍生品和“影子”负债。看着它们如今像一连串的火山一样在全球各地爆发，让人感到恐怖又着迷。抵押贷款危机触发了第二个危机，不过它实际上 是一个单独的危机。金融机构（包括通用电气(General Electric)和通用汽车(General Motors)这类没有顶着金融公司的牌子，但旗下有金融业务的企业）股本可能会被一扫而光，剩在政府手里的则是曾经价值数万亿美元、如今毫不值钱的负 债。政府可能会大印钞票来为此买单。当然，其中的很多负债可以互相抵消。

在巧妙应对危机方面，政府一直行动迟缓。此外，再借用一下现在的一句老生常谈，没人真正知道形势会糟糕到什么程度。所以，谁都不该把全部的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里（又是一句老生常谈）。

不过，本专栏更感兴趣的是未来5年股价的走势，而不是未来5个月的走势。

2002 年互联网泡沫即将破碎的时候，我以每股约12美元的价格买了亚马逊公司(Amazon.com)的股票。几年后，我以约45美元的价格卖出。如果这听起来 不错，当时也确实挺好。不过我也有看起来像个傻瓜的时候。我买进亚马逊股票后不久，股价就跌到了约6美元。我“损失了”一半。当时很多聪明人都说，亚马逊 会完蛋。后来，我以45美元的价格卖出之后，该股却一直飙升到了约70美元。

如今，我们所处的情况可能与此类似。投资者可能会在赚更多钱 之前先损失大笔的钱。不过，现在却有着很多货真价实的“价值”投资机会。的确，股票的价格可能会进一步走低，这证明了长线投资、成本平均法投资的论点。不 过以蒙特尔援引波士顿基金经理杰里米•格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham )的话说，如果股票看起来很诱人，而你没有买进，让机会溜走了，你不只看起来像个傻瓜，你就是一个傻瓜。

Brett Arends

（编者按：本文作者Brett Arends是《华尔街日报》网络版专栏作家，他的专栏《投资回报》帮助投资者分析最新时事并做出相应投资决定。）

价值投资者也无法跑赢熊市

买

进价格较低的股票的风险就是它们可能会继续走低。

上周所有股票显然都有此遭遇。上周道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数跌4.1%，至7062.93点，创下1997年5月1日以来的最低收盘点位。

Steve Dininno

投 资者对银行业和不断扩散的全球衰退感到担忧，受此影响，上周主要股指普遍跌至格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)1996年12月发表知名讲话“非理性繁荣”时的水平。纳斯达克综合指数上周跌4.4%，至1377.84点，标准普尔500指数则 跌4.5%，至735.09点。

道琼斯指数目前已经较2007年10月的最高点下挫50%，是有史以来第二大熊市，仅次于下挫89%的1929-1932年。股市下挫达到20%通常就被视为熊市。

通常而言，如此残酷的市场的亮点是给逢低买盘的投资者创造了大量的机会。不过，眼下这次的不景气对价值投资者（也就是那些寻找他们认为估值比正常水平低的股票的投资者）却尤其残忍。

“价值投资”的概念是在1929-1932年熊市前后由哥伦比亚大学教授格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)最先提出来的。这一概念现在的守护者是巴菲特(Warren Buffett)，他被普遍视为当今的金融智者。

然而，巴菲特的投资工具伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)去年股价下跌了43%。美盛(Legg Mason)基金的米勒(Bill Miller)等其他知名的价值投资者也都遭受了前所未有的打击。

当 然，在目前低迷的形势下，对任何类型的股市投资者来说几乎都没有安全的避风港可言。不过，价值股票却是其中最不安全的。自2007年10月股市涨到最高点 以来，模拟标普500价值股的一个iShares交易所买卖基金下跌了56%左右，而标普500指数本身下跌53%。模拟成长股－－即收益或股价增长迅速 的股票－－的iShares交易所买卖基金下跌了大约44%。


衰退对“价值”不利

与普遍的观念相反，价值型策略在衰退之时往往表现不佳，尤其是相对于成长型策略。

原因很简单：当增长很难实现时（衰退时往往如此），投资者会更青睐能保持增长的公司。一个值得记住的例外情况是2001年的衰退，当时投资者纷纷抛售成长股－－大多为估值过高的科技股－－就好像它们有毒一样。

Nomura Securities International的量化研究主管约瑟夫•麦兹里奇(Joseph Mezrich)说，价值股在衰退时受损不足为奇，这次的不同寻常之处在于损失的程度。

在这次的衰退中，价值股这锅粥主要是被一堆老鼠屎给搞坏的，那就是银行。

价值投资者常常追逐股价与帐面价值比较低的公司，帐面价值差不多就是其资产减去负债的价值。出于各种原因，银行的价格与帐面价值比一般都很低，因此银行常常会出现在价值投资者的视线之内。

2007年下半年，银行开始大幅冲减不良抵押贷款，银行股价随即下挫，这使得银行的价格与帐面价值比更低，对于价值投资者而言也就更难以抗拒了。

问题出在这个比率的“帐面”这块：银行资产负债表上的数万亿资产都与抵押贷款债务有关，而后者的价值正迅速下滑。这使得帐面价值成了一个向错误的方向快速前进的目标：不断下滑。


误读低迷

这种情况意味着这些股票并非表面上看起来的便宜货，它们不断下跌－－一些分析师将这种情况称为“价值陷阱”。

M. Ramsey King Securities首席市场策略师比尔•金(Bill King)说，这些股票下跌的过程中还有更多人买进，他们的投资模型无法甄别垃圾股，因此他们无法迅速作出调整。

政府的救助和干预措施引发了无数的虚假诱因，将更多的投资者引诱进了价值圈套。金融股曾数次短暂回弹，但随后只会跌至新低。这些股票价格跌得越狠，就越是容易实现激动人心的反弹，这种情况可能会夸大它们真正的实力。


毫无意义的反弹

举 例来说，如果花旗集团(Citigroup)股价上涨50美分，在2007年10月花旗股价位于44美元左右时，上涨50美分也就等于涨幅1%，还不错但 并不引人注目。而如果是在2月24日，花旗股价为2.50美元时，上涨50美分就等于涨了20%。按某些定义，这样的涨幅简直就是牛市了，但考虑到花旗前 景不明，这其实没什么意义。

大多数运用格雷厄姆/巴菲特模式的价值投资者都不怎么在乎短期收益，而是寄希望于淘到能带来长期回报的便宜货。

但要是买进金融股，可能得等到这些公司清除掉资产负债表上的所有不良资产、重新开始发放贷款，衰退也结束的时候，才能开始获得回报。如果现在买进金融股，那你可能得有等到至少2009年底的意愿和能力才能看到回报。

其他一些价值股－－包括房屋建筑商和与消费开支相关的其他公司－－也可能必须等上一段时间才会再次上涨，因为这些公司的生存同样取决于经济的增长。

麦兹里奇认为，价值股接近转折点的一个标志就是分析师们对未来的收益终于达成一致的时候。他的研究发现，过去20年中，当金融界关于收益的争论趋于激烈时，价值股的表现往往会恶化，2007年底至今的情况正是如此。

Mark Gongloff