警惕假牛市

华

尔街上应该竖个新路标：前有虚假反弹，当心受骗。

有许多非常聪明的人眼下都在琢磨我们是否该有一波大的上扬。或许他们是对的。可以肯定的是，现在到处都是数量多得让人难以相信的便宜股票。

但这未必意味着熊市已经过去。

历史数据显示，类似眼下这样的严重熊市持续的时间会比许多人预料的长很多。而且，熊市期间会出现为数不少的暂时性的大规模上涨行情。

日本这波大熊市从上世纪九十年代初就开始了，到现在还没有彻底结束。

不过，在此期间，日本出现过13次涨幅在15%以上的上涨行情。有些行情规模很大，导致许多人误以为熊市已经结束，新的牛市已经开始。

从1990年末到1994年中这段时间，日经指数上涨达到三分之一的情况出现了四次；1995-1996和九十年代末的两次上涨行情涨幅超过了50%。从2003年到2006年，该指数上涨了一倍以上，不过，每次上涨行情过后市场就会跌回到新的低点。

大多数了解华尔街历史的人会告诉你，始于1929年华尔街崩盘开始的那场市场大跌直到三年以后，即1932年才触及历史低点。但他们经常忘记的是，这段历史还有另一半。

市场共有17年时间一直处于萧条。到1946年，道琼斯指数再创低点，比1929年市场崩盘后出现的低谷还低的多。

但在此期间，市场先后出现过16次涨幅达到15%的上涨行情。有些次的涨势非常巨大。

1929年11月之后，市场涨幅接近50%。1932年股市上涨77%的时候，投资者肯定以为迎来了新一轮的牛市，1933年股市更是上涨了一倍以上。有一轮上涨持续了数年，从1935年到1937年道指上涨了一倍多，随后市场再度发生崩盘。

1938年，道指在大跌之前上涨了50%以上；1942-1943年这一幕又再次上演。

七十年代曾出现过大熊市，当时飞升的通货膨胀让投资者遭受的实际损失更为惨重。1969年到1982年期间，市场实际价值损失了三分之二。

不过，在此期间也曾有七次大规模上涨行情，其中三次的涨幅超过四成。

我并不想变成一个超级唱衰派。市场还会出现牛市的。世界现在还没走到末日。更重要的是，看上去投资价值很高的股票现在多得难以置信。许多股票提供非常慷慨的股息收益率。

那些以低价格买到好股票并且长期持有的投资者往往能获得丰厚回报，但重要的是要有节制。

Brett Arends
（编者按：本文作者Brett Arends是《华尔街日报》网络版专栏作家，他的专栏《投资回报》帮助投资者分析最新时事并做出相应投资决定。）

大学生 如何理财

大学生 如何理财 2009/02/23 14:57:33 ●文：本报整理

近几年，大学里流行一个词语——“财务危机”，一到学期中末，同学们的“经济危机”就在校园里蔓延开来，很多同学都要“节衣缩食”或靠借款度日。

在大学里，相当一部分同学有攀比心理，大学生节节攀升的花费，不仅给家长增加了负担，还使自己养成了乱花钱的不良习惯。

对大部分大学生来说，在中小学时期缺乏理财能力的教导，更何况大多数同学又是第一次离开父母，自己独立 生活，所以在消费问题上没有分寸，为了进一步掌握大学生的消费现状，中国江西一所大学在新生中做了一次问卷调查，结果显示：理财观念的匮乏是大学校园乱消 费的主要原因，很多同学不知道自己需要什么，有时候往往管不住自己，过早地把生活费花在一些不需要的地方。

对于可独立支配的这部分花费，不少学生还是无法做到合理使用，月初富裕，月底拮据，几乎成了一种普遍现象。许多同学表示，他们从小没被灌输“消费观教育”，理财意识相当薄弱。

相信时下的大学校园，“负”翁“负”婆大有人在，还没真正进入社会，越来越多的大学生已经提前感受到了月光族的烦恼，针对这种情况，理财专家指出，大学生应该有意识地培养自己的理财能力，在真正踏入社会之前修足“理财学分”，同时也要惜用父母的血汗钱，当个理财先锋。

●学会与银行理财打交道

理财专家认为，大学生最基本的理财ABC首先应从如何同银行打交道学起，不要以为去银行仅仅是取钱和存钱那么简单，即便是简单的存款，也能从中学到不少理财知识。

也许有些同学在中学期间已开设银行户口，但大多数是由父母直接掌控的，对存钱、取钱、银行利息计算等没有留意。通过和银行打交道，大学生可以了解最基本的金融常识、ATM机和信用卡的一些服务功能，学习如何独立理财。

举个例子，从家乡到隆市读私立学院的莎莉，每个学期的生活费都是一次过带足的，原先莎莉每次都将这笔钱存储蓄户口，后来她改变了存款方式，用短期代替储蓄存款，每个月规划好支出费用后才到银行取现。

一两个学期下来，莎莉发现自己的账户还有利息可拿，大呼自己“找到了理财的感觉！”同时也发现学习和银行打交道，不仅仅是存取钱那么简单。

此外，随着信用卡的日益普及，理财专家建议大学生可以尝试一下用信用卡来替代现金进行一些支付活动。

其实，使用信用卡不仅仅只是体验“用明天的钱”进行消费，信用卡一般都有十多天的免息期，如何用足这些免息时间，力争资金利用最大化，也是一门不小的学问，其中的窍门和经验必须在实际操作后才能有所体会。

目前一些银行也有推出针对大学生群体的信用卡，其中的一些特色服务，如果能够好好利用，无疑能节省不少交易费用。

不过，专家提醒，大学生使用信用卡应该量入为出，适可而止，过度消费不仅会加重自身和父母的经济负担， 还会对自己将来的消费习惯和经济状况带来不良的影响。香港、台湾地区就有不少大学生过度用卡，只支付最低还款额，到毕业后才发现，自己的大部分薪水都要用 来偿还信用卡借款，成了不折不扣的“卡奴”。

●如何开源节流很重要

在理财师的规划书中经常可以看到要开源节流的建议，对于大学生来说，做好自己的理财规划，开源和节流同样重要。如今很多大学生都觉得“钱不够用”，最积极的解决办法是设法增加收入，以弥补资金不足的尴尬。

勤工俭学是目前最常见的大学生“开源”方式，协助老师做研究、做家教、到一些公司或企业兼职打工……这些都能够帮助大学生增加收入的办法。但理财专家指出，光是开源还不够，关键是要学会如何打理和规划自己的钱财，要学会节流才行。

理财师建议大学生节流不妨从记账开始。不少大学生兼职后，觉得自己有了收入，花钱开始大手大脚，请客吃饭、娱乐消费等支出直线上升，到了月末或期末，手头依然很紧甚至需借钱“过渡”。

理财师表示，不少大学生不是没钱花，而是不会花钱，要每天记下自己的支出，过一段时间后看看哪些是不必要的支出，可以尝试节省那些可花可不花的支出。如果把这些钱存进银行，还能得到一笔不小的利息。

●尝试做一些小投资

除了勤工俭学之外，大学生其实还可尝试进行其他投资。理财师建议，有一定经济基础的大学生，可以适当尝试进行一些真正的“投资”——如股票、基金定投等。

涉足这些投资领域，并不完全是为了赚钱，更多意义上是一种“演习”。修读国际金融系的丹尼，就曾经尝试 “炒外汇”。丹尼做了一些“功课”后，将平时积存下来的零用钱投入“外汇市场”。当时恰好遇到好时机，他也小赚一笔。这次经历让丹尼对投资产生了浓厚的兴 趣，他开始关注投资理财这一领域。

对于大学生的投资行为，理财师不置可否，因为这些投资相对存款而言带有一定的风险性质，但也只有通过“实战”才能更好地了解投资市场，为将来步入社会后进行投资积累经验和教训。但投资也要量力而行，不要一开始就投入过多的资金，以免投资失败得不偿失，牵连家人。

形势政策教育——1+1+1理财模式

相信时下的大学生校园里，有相当一批学生不仅没有存款，也不懂得如何理财，反而每到月尾都要靠借钱度日。虽然这其中有大学生没负担、家庭供给有保障的原因，但不良的消费习惯和没有合理的理财计划也是重要因素。

有专家指出，21世纪的大学生不应该仅仅只有“智商”，还应该具备一定的“财”商理财能力，在大学时代就应该养成很好的理财习惯，为自己的现在和将来精打细算，这样对于以后走向社会收益巨大。

美国著名经济学家詹姆斯菲尔德对于美国大学生理财规划，提出了专门的“1＋1＋1”模式：

●学会贷款———用明天的钱圆今天的梦

大学期间的学杂费、生活费是一笔不小的支出，如果财务状况较为紧张，不妨去申请助学贷款。因为大学生贷款利率比市场利率优惠，这样既可以减轻家庭负担，又可以培养自己的独立意识和责任意识。

对马来西亚学生而言，本地助学贷款大可有两种，一种是国家助学贷款（如PTPTN，国家高等教育基金），申请者修读课程只要获得政府承认，以及符合相关条件，即可申请；另一种是商业性助学贷款，由家长提出申请，只要符合银行的贷款条件，就可获得贷款。

建议：国家助学贷款手续可能较繁琐，不过利率低，而大学生也可按照实际需求选择适合的还款方式。

●学会兼职———让“增值”为以后的超前消费埋下伏笔

据美国一份9所州立大学生的调查显示，约有56%的大学生有较为稳定的兼职工作，曾经或打算兼职的同学超过了90%。

建议：从经济投资学来说，兼职是一项不需要预付任何资本的纯增值方式，而且几乎没有什么风险性。找一份合适的校外兼职，会进一步扩充自己的财务本金。这种理财“增值”方式，应该成为大学生理财的一个重要组成部分。

●学会投资———为今后的个人理财“投石问路”

如今，美国大学校园里已经涌现出为数不少的学生股民，他们涉足股市并不全是为了赚钱，更重要的是为了解投资市场，为今后步入社会的个人理财积累一定的经验。

建议：大学生投资没必要局限于股票行业，可适当向其他投资方式入手；投资可起用小额资金，资金来源可从 兼职所得，或由父母赞助两方面入手；尽管大学生做投资具有一定风险，但作为一种大胆尝试，能为今后的个人理财起到“投石问路”的作用，对于他们理财意识的 扩展有着积极的意义。

南洋商报

Unit trust sector expected to do better this year

By Rupinder

2009/03/12

THE unit trust industry is set to do better this year as the stock market stabilises, after a 20 per cent fall in value last year, its first drop in eight years.

"In my opinion, I don't see much downside (in the stock market)," said Tunku Ya'acob Tunku Abdullah, president of The Federation of the Malaysian Unit Trust Managers (FMUTM).Tunku Ya'acob, who spoke to reporters at a briefing in Kuala Lumpur yesterday, believes the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) will stay at its current level.

The market was around this level about four years before it spiked two years ago.The benchmark KLCI index closed at 850.37 points yesterday. It fell some 40 per cent in 2008 on fears about the global economic health.The total net asset value (NAV) of the unit trust industry was down by RM34 billion, or 20 per cent, at the end of 2008. Its NAV was RM169 billion in 2007.The industry has been enjoying double-digit growth since 2001.Although take-up rates of new funds have been slow recently, Tunku Ya'acob said investors are also not rushing to take out their money as the redemption rate is still at acceptable levels of about 2 per cent.

"The industry is still continuing to record net sales of nearly RM18 billion in the first 10 months of 2008," he said in his speech at the Morningstar 2008 Fund Awards.He said the growth of syariah funds has been phenomenal in both value and numbers.By December 2008, the NAV of syariah-based funds had mushroomed to RM17 billion from RM6.8 billion in 2004.The total number of syariah funds launched in Malaysia has also doubled to 147 last year from 65 in 2004.

Theedgedaily

Time to invest, says Aberdeen Asset Management

KUALA LUMPUR: Amidst the market volatility and economic slowdown, Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd, which is one of the external fund managers for the Employees Provident Fund (EPF), feels that it is time to invest in the stock market.Its director for business development Donald Amstad said the returns for risk taking now were high and investors should identify companies with sound balance sheet.“The key issue is for investors to identify companies that have sound management and balance sheet, as some would successfully ride out this difficult period,” he told reporters at a media briefing on the market outlook for 2009.
Elston (left) and Amstad at the media briefing on the Market Outlook for 2009 at Menara IMC, KL. Photo by Chu Juck SengAmstad said that last year was dreadful for risk assets, with equity and corporate bond prices collapsing and only government bonds ending the year in positive territory.“Certain corporate bonds are now attractively priced. While earnings generally are likely to decline and the level of defaults to rise, the indiscriminate selling by certain groups of investors in 2008 has led to some very interesting situations in securitised assets,” said Amstad.

Aberdeen strategist for Asia Peter Elston said investment opportunities could now be found selectively in global bond and equity markets. He said no one should be under any illusion about how savage debt-deflation may be and how inter-linked the global economy was.“But stock market correlation has become extreme, and we are of the view that selective stock prices in Asia have reached attractive levels once again,” he said. Elston also said it was essential to ignore indices when it came to stock selection.“Rather than fixating on indices that only tell you what has happened in the past, the focus should be on a company’s balance sheet strength, cash flows and management quality,” he said.Aberdeen Asset Management Sdn Bhd managing director Gerald Ambrose Johari Ali Abdullah said a company’s share price would reflect its value, and it was more important to look at a company than a sector.

On the outlook for Asian economies, Elston said there was much dependence on Western economies to boost demand.“The trick now for Asia going forward is to come up with domestic demand-driven consumption. Malaysia has been more resilient than others but there is now a slowdown in various sectors. Once the collapse is complete, there will be good opportunities for growth,” he said.He also said Asian economies were more fortunate compared to Western countries, as the latter were mired in structural problems in their financial systems that would take longer to normalise.

Aberdeen Asset Management Sdn Bhd assistant investment manager Abdul Jalil Abdul Rasheed said Prime Minister-designate Datuk Seri Najib Razak would likely make some policy changes that would influence the economy and investment climate.He said it would be interesting to see the possible changes that Najib might make in the cabinet line-up, as well as relaxations to rules pertaining to foreign investment here.

theedgedaily

Raising children to be 'money-smart'

Allowing children to learn good money management habits can help parents reduce the household bills.

IN THE current challenging times brought about by the global economic crisis, it is now even more important to be open with your children about your finances.

Allowing them to learn money management skills can help you reduce your household bills. Bearing in mind how prices of consumer goods keep increasing, you will need all the help you can get from members of your family, no matter how young they are.

So, why not begin with your precious young ones by teaching them good money management habits! Want to know why this is one of the best things you can do for your children and ultimately for yourself and your family? Read on, and you will find out.

Build a solid foundation in life

Let's face it - managing your finances is a necessary life skill, particularly in this day and age where virtually everything requires money.

Unfortunately, when it comes to kids and money, most parents neglect to teach their children about the basics of money management. This is something parents need to work on because just as you teach your children other good habits, such as brushing their teeth and cleaning up after themselves, you can also teach them good money management habits.

What is most important is teaching your children the value of saving money and not spending their savings on an impulse. This is the starting block that will help them establish solid money management habits that will ultimately benefit not just your children, but you and your children's children as well.

As Warren Buffet aptly put, "Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago".

Money doesn't grow on trees

Or does it? Why else do banks have branches? - This would typically be a child's sentiment and a disturbing one it is. Kids these days really do believe that money is easy to come by.

Picture this - your son asks you to withdraw more money from an ATM machine when you tell him "No, I can't buy you that new toy because I don't have much money left".

Want to know why he can so casually suggest that to you? It's because he thinks there is an endless flow of cash coming from the ATM machine. That is your more sophisticated version rebutting the ever famous "Money doesn't grow on trees" excuse commonly used by moms and dads worldwide.

Kids naturally go through those stages where they just want this, want that, want more and forget that money has to be earned and prioritised - if people could have whatever they wanted, the world may (or may not) be a better place to live. Once your children hit this stage in their life, you will know it is time to teach them some money management skills.

Instill discipline and save your wallet!

One of the best lifelong lessons that your children can gain from learning money management skills is the art of discipline and we all know how much kids need that! Kids these days are different and many may be shaking heads right now saying that kids now have a mind of their own, not like kids in yesteryears and instilling discipline is easier said than done.

It takes discipline to put aside your hard-earned money - regardless whether from a salary or an allowance - into a savings account or a simple coin box. However, as your children learn the differences between needs and wants, and start saving their money, the discipline gained will spread to other areas of their lives. And ultimately your wallet! They will learn the importance, and have the discipline, to live within their means and reduce the amount of holes they put in your pocket.

Avoid Generation Debt

If your children are now young adults who are still studying in university or are in the early years of their career, then they are part of the generation known as Generation Debt.

If this doesn't sound familiar, then it is because your children have not come to an age where they need to start venturing out on their own yet. But as sure as the sun will come up the next morning, your children will get to that stage in their lives eventually. And when they do, there is a great possibility that their financial decisions will create a spillover effect, that you, the loving parents, will be left to deal with.

Most young adults nowadays enter the workforce with five figure student loans, rack up four figures of stubborn credit card debt, and their savings are miniscule. Add to that the skyrocketing prices of consumer goods and housing and the debt just mounts up.

Therefore, to prevent your children from falling into the same trap as their peers, you have to assist your children in learning how to manage their money today!

Become charitable adults

Money management not only involves learning how to save, spend and invest wisely, it also involves learning the art of giving back to society. This is your opportunity to give your children exposure to charitable organisations and people less fortunate than they are, and a great way to educate the next generation about family values and establishing a sense of appreciation and gratitude for the luxuries they enjoy.

By encouraging charitable action from a young age, your children will eventually become empathic adults who know that their actions can have a positive impact on their surroundings.

You can create an exhaustive list of why it is important to teach your children money management skills.

However, knowing the five reasons mentioned in this article (just in case the reasons mentioned slipped your minds, here they are again: to build a solid foundation in life, because money doesn't grow on trees, to save your wallet by instilling discipline, to avoid generation debt and to become charitable adults) is sufficient for you to begin that process.

"Families function as a child's safety net, but if you do not give that child the tools to knit his own net, so to speak, he may jump into a perilous world with no net at all", says Joline Godfrey

So don't procrastinate! Give your children the tools they need to make their own safety net. Now is a good time as any to start setting your children on the right path for a financially secure future.

This article was written by Securities Industry Development Corporation (SIDC) to educate investors on smart investing. The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be used as a substitute for legal or other professional advice.

SIDC, the leading capital markets education, training and information resource provider in Asean, is the training and development arm of the Securities Commission, Malaysia. It was established in 1994 and incorporated in 2007.

Insight into bonds

ind out what is a bond; why invest in it; and what to watch out for when investing in bonds.

MALAYSIAN retail investors have never participated actively in bond investing.

Some of you may have bought bond funds offered by the unit trusts, however, most of you may not know what a bond investment is really about and the effect it has on your investment portfolio.

So then… what is a bond?

A bond represents the debt owed by either government units or corporations.

By investing in bonds, you basically become the lender to the issuers and you will be paid a specified percentage of interest.

This percentage of interest is called coupon payment and it is given to you by the issuer because of the use of your money.

At the end of the maturity date, you will get back your principal.

An example to quote is the Bond Simpanan Merdeka 2008 issued by Bank Negara for the senior citizens, which has a three-year tenure and pays 5 per cent interest per year.

In Malaysia, the main issuers of public debt are the government of Malaysia,Bank Negara Malaysia), and quasi government institutions (Khazanah, Danamodal and Danaharta).

Private debt securities and asset-backed securities are issued by the National Mortgage Corporation (Cagamas Bhd), financial institutions and non-financial corporations.

The major investors in the Malaysian bond market are the Employees Provident Fund (EPF), pension funds, insurance companies and other financial institutions.

The price of a bond is determined by many factors, with the main drivers being interest rates, inflation, maturity and credit quality.

Interest rates

Bonds are highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations.

When the prevailing interest rate goes up higher than the coupon rate, the prices of the outstanding bonds will fall below the principal value.

If you are buying a bond fund, higher interest rates will cause lower fund prices.

Inflation
During periods of rapid economic growth, we will see increasing inflation.

This will eventually lead to higher interest rates and cause a drop in the value of bonds.

Deflation, the opposite of inflation, may occur when there is a recession or prolonged periods or little or no growth and excess capacity, will eventually lead to zero or negative real interest rates, causing the value of bonds to rise.

Maturity

Due to the sensitivities to inflation and interest rate fluctuations, longer term bonds will face more uncertainties compared to shorter term bonds.

As such, longer term bonds should offer better interest payments as the additional risk premium for the investors.

Nevertheless, they will suffer larger price fluctuations as a result of the longer period they take to mature.

Credit quality

When we lend out our money, we want to make sure that we will be able to get it back.

Therefore, the credibility or credit quality of the bond issuers plays an important role in the bond price.

A corporate bond will have a higher yield than a government guaranteed bond due to the additional risk that the investor has to bear for facing the possibility of the corporate bond defaulting.

The recent global financial crisis was partly attributed to the decline in credit quality for certain corporate bonds.

Why invest in bonds

Investing in bonds offers an alternative to investors to diversify their investment portfolios because it is relatively lower risk compared to stock investing.

As bonds provide periodic interest payments and repayment of principal at the end of the maturity, it will be suitable for you if your investment objective is to preserve capital and receive a predictable stream of income.

Depending on your investment time horizon, you can choose to invest in short-, medium- or long-term bonds.

However, you must understand the factors that drive the price of the bond that you
invest in.

As retailers, most of the time we will be investing in bond funds offered by unit trusts or commercial banks.

Bond funds are combinations of various bonds, therefore, the risk of investing in bond funds is relatively lower compared to individual bonds.

However, you must take note of the factors listed above while selecting an appropriate bond fund.

In addition, you will also need to know about the fund management companies and make sure that the approaches they take are suitable for your risk profile and investment objectives.

The timing of investing in bond funds is also very important.

What to watch out for when investing in bonds

Watch out for the interest rate especially if it is too low or unstable.

Avoid speculative bonds. Even when you are investing in bond funds, make sure that the bonds in the portfolio are investment grade, which carries a credit rating of “BBB” and above.

Bonds with rating of “BB” and below are considered “high yield” and below investment grade.

Don’t invest a large portion of your portfolio in bonds. It will limit your portfolio growth, as over time, inflation will erode the fixed income stream and principal.

Bonds are suitable to complement stock investing.

This article was written by SIDC and Ooi Kok Hwa, a holder of a Capital Markets Services Representative’s Licence to carry on the business of investment advice under the Capital Markets and Services Act 2007.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be used as a substitute for legal or other professional advice.

Securities Industry Development Corp, the leading capital markets education, training and information resource provider in Asean, is the training and development arm of the Securities Commission.

It was established in 1994 and incorporated in 2007.

黄金可能在2009年再创历史高点

随

着股市的沦陷，黄金可能会变得更加耀眼。

上周金价一度突破了1,000美元关口，距离2008年3月历史高点1,035美元近在咫尺。这真切地暴露出投资者日益对几乎所有其他类型资产不屑一顾的态度，以及对于各国政府和央行为缓解衰退所付出的努力能否奏效越发感到怀疑。

尽管金价从上周五以来小幅回调，但可以想像，年底前金价很可能再度创下历史新高。

从长期来看，黄金实际上从2000年互联网泡沫破灭以来一直处于为期数年的上涨行情之中。

标准普尔(S&P)首席技术策略师阿尔贝特(Mark Arbeter)称，短期来看，1000美元似乎是金价面临的一个重要阻力区域。

的 确，黄金已经有一定程度的超买，需要休整。他预计金价将回落到900-950美元区间，而后才会再续升势，突破1,000美元。如果金价能够强劲突破 1,000美元，该机构预计金价将有望达到1,200美元，甚至高达1,500美元。股市跌得越猛，经济形势越差，金价就会上涨越高。

没错，1,000美元在去年3月的确被证明是不可逾越的心理关口，但是今年的全球经济形势已经变得十分惨淡。

辛辛那提的Huntington Asset Advisors资深投资组合经理索兰蒂诺(Peter A. Sorrentino)指出，由于黄金最近已经大幅上涨（从2008年11月13日的52周低点上涨37.0%），因此出现一定的获利回吐在所难免。

他称，金价可能会在一段时间内区间波动，但他认为金价根本没有见顶。首先全球黄金需求非常高，而供给（尤其是南非的供给）一直受到多种问题的制约。

他认为黄金可能再度上涨，升至1,200-1,300美元区间。

黄金的神秘走势

从历史上看，黄金和美国股市表现呈现出很强的负相关性。但相对于大部分其他资产，黄金似乎是以自有的神秘而无法预测的步调行事。

例如，分析师通常会研究美元和黄金的走势。因黄金是以美元计价，过去黄金和美元走势通常相反。但在过去数月，它们基本上共同进退。

Permanent Portfolio Funds驻旧金山投资组合经理库奇诺(Michael Cuggino)称，这种情况不正常，但反映出了全球投资者的恐慌情绪。

黄金和美元被视为市场中仅有的避风港，而其他一切资产都遭到抛售，尤其是股票。

现在，美元面临一些严重的不利因素。美国政府为了满足 庞大的经济刺激计划的需要，印刷了超过1万亿美元新钞票。在通货膨胀的影响下，美元的避险优势可能会很快消失，从而可能导致金价再度飙升。

同样，全球发达国家央行都在忙于各自的经济刺激计划，它们的货币也将走软，从而为黄金带来额外的上涨潜力。索兰蒂诺称，黄金可能被视为各个发达国家货币未来购买力的庇护所。

而且偏低的利率水平令投资黄金的机会成本较低。

近期黄金和其他资产的关系也发生了变化。

库奇诺称，例如美国国债收益率在秋天大幅下滑时，金价也在下探年内低点。

美国国债收益率目前已经回升，但金价也走高，这表明投资者不再一起买进黄金和美国国债。这种异常现象（可能是由投资者担忧造成的）似乎已经结束。

库奇诺认为，黄金的确将走高，但将大幅振荡。他称，随着时间推移，黄金的波动性已经得到了很好的证明。但在目前的经济环境下，总体上黄金将继续上涨。

黄金走势要出现逆转并下跌，必须要等待投资者对全球货币体系恢复信心才行，特别是对七大工业国货币系统的信心。经济趋向稳定的一些信号可能会轻易夺走黄金的光芒。

黄金能涨多高？

库奇诺解释称，在经过通货膨胀因素调整后，金价只相当于历史最高价的一半左右。他称，金价有很大上涨空间。

实际上，据媒体报导，Granville Cooper Gold Funds的主管斯密丝(Henry Smyth)认为金价可能在两年内升至3,500美元。

不管人们是否相信这么玄的预测，在发达国家经济没有改善的情况下，黄金价格肯定会上涨。在极端的避险情绪支配下，投资者抛弃了所有其他资产，正在寻找价值 地，而黄金可能是剩下的唯一一个具有吸引力的资产。

Palash R. Ghosh
华尔街日报

减肥关键──燃烧卡路里

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肥的秘诀到底是什么？应该摄入低脂肪、低碳水化合物还是高蛋白食品？科学家认为，选择哪类减肥食谱并不重要。美国联邦政府资助的一项研究对研究对象进行了为期两年的跟踪，其结论是减肥的关键在于减少卡路里的摄入，并且做到持之以恒。

然而，参与者们难以长期坚持单一的减肥方法，减肥效果对其中大多数人来说并不明显。

随着全球肥胖问题日益严重，数百万人已经尝试过多种流行瘦身食谱，比如阿特金斯(Atkins)饮食法、区域(Zone)饮食法和奥尼什(Ornish)饮食法。这些方法都大力鼓吹偏重于摄入某一类营养物质的好处。

来源：Associated Press

此前的一些研究发现，与传统的要求食用低脂食品的减肥方法相比，提倡少摄入碳水化合物的阿特金斯饮食法能够收到更好的效果。但这项最新的研究结果表明，减肥的关键所在是一条基本原则──摄入了卡路里，就得将它消耗掉。

资助这项研究的美国国家心肺和血液研究所(National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute)主任伊丽莎白·纳贝尔(Elizabeth Nabel)说，人们有所不知的是，你遵循的到底是低脂还是低碳水化合物食谱都不重要。

她说，限制摄入体内的卡路里，并通过锻炼燃烧更多的卡路里才是减肥的关键。

哈 佛大学公共卫生学院(Harvard School of Public Health)和路易斯安那州的彭宁顿生物医学研究中心(Pennington Biomedical Research Center)共同主持了这项研究，研究结果在上周四的《新英格兰医学期刊》(New England Journal of Medicine)上发表。

研究人员为811名超重的成年人随机指定了上述四种减肥食谱中的一种。每种食谱的脂肪、蛋白质和碳水化合物的摄入量各不相同。

减肥食谱是商业减肥广告中常见的新花样，但该研究没有直接对流行的减肥食谱进行比较。研究所采用的四种减肥食谱要求摄入对健康有益的脂肪，多吃全麦食品和水果蔬菜，少摄入胆固醇。

近三分之二的参与者是女性。组织者鼓励参与者每天在饮食中减少摄入750卡路里、每周锻炼90分钟、在网络上写节食日记，并定期与饮食顾问见面以记录减肥进展情况。

没有哪一种饮食法表现出超群的优势；四组参与者在减重和缩小腰围两方面的效果都差不多。

参与者在六个月内平均减重13磅，但一年后，所有组别的参与者都有体重反弹的情况。两年后，参与者平均减重9磅，腰围平均缩小2英寸。只有15%的参与者比两年前体重减轻了10%以上。

定期和饮食顾问沟通的节食者取得了更好的减肥效果。那些经常参加咨询见面会的节食者比不经常参加会议的人减轻了更多的体重──他们减掉了22磅，而平均的减重水平只有9磅。

这一项目的研究负责人、来自哈佛大学的弗兰克·萨克斯(Frank Sacks)说，限制卡路里摄入的节食法让人们在食品选择上有了更大的自由度，减肥食谱因此变得不那么单调了，人们只需要注意自己摄入的卡路里总量就行了。

萨克斯说，减肥的窍门是找到既好吃又能长期坚持的健康食谱。

今年52岁的戴比·迈耶(Debbie Mayer)在参与这一研究项目之前，是个每每遇到压力就暴饮暴食的人。她可以整天吃零食，而且根本想不到要节制。迈耶三十多岁的时候曾经参加过马拉松，但近几年的健康问题令她无法进行大量的体育运动。

迈耶不加选择地尝试过很多不同的节食方法──Weight Watchers、阿特金斯及 South Beach饮食法──均收效甚微。

来自马萨诸塞州布罗克顿(Brockton)的迈耶从事着照顾老人的工作。她说，我这辈子都在和我的体重做斗争。我只需要让减肥更有计划性。

迈耶被分配在坚持低脂肪、高蛋白饮食的小组，每天摄入1400卡路里。她开始定量饮食，还重新开始健身。研究结束时，身高五英尺的迈耶体重从开始时的179磅降到了129磅，足足减了50磅。迈耶现在的体重是132磅，她还想要再减轻一些体重。

耶鲁预防研究中心(Yale Prevention Research Center)的大卫·卡茨(David Katz)写过好几本有关控制体重的书。他说，这项研究的结果不应被看作是对偏重摄入某一类营养物质的流行减肥食谱的认可。

卡茨表示，这项研究比较了高质量、有益心脏的节食法，并不是那些耍耍花架子的流行节食法。卡茨本人并未参与这项研究。他说，某些流行的低碳水化合物饮食法往往导致纤维摄入量不足，而饱和脂肪的摄入量较高。

还有一些专家担心，即便有了专业人士的密切指导和支持，节食者也无法保持身材。

阿姆斯特丹自由大学(Free University)的马丁·卡坦(Martijn Katan)在随研究报告一同刊载的一篇评论中写道，即便这些聪明、热切的参与者在经验丰富的专业人士指导下，也无法达到足以扭转肥胖趋势的减肥效果。

本文译自美联社(Associated Press)