Friday, May 08, 2009

化解煞气DIY (下)



其实我们居住的环境周围都布满着许多不同的物体和建筑物,这些峦头形煞或有潜伏的危机,可能在屋主入伙1年内发生或5年后才发生问题也说不定,因此在选择房屋时,必须多加注意和避免此类煞气。

11)水井

许多新村房屋还保留着水井,在风水上属于不吉。根据祖师杨公之“门路吉凶断应”有云:“门前有井起风声”。凡事屋宅附近(15米内)有井都属于大凶之象。

危机:从风水角度来看,代表屋主容易有胸部疾病,尤其女性更要特别注意乳癌的发生!

化解方法:不应该让荒废已久的水井置于一旁不理,应该尽快把它封掉为妙。

12)淋头水

这种煞的形成主要是因为马路高过房屋。由于行驶在马路上有许多不同体型大小的交通工具,它们所排出的污气,灰尘等都会笼罩着低于马路的房屋,让居住者感觉挺有压力。

危机:如果居民长期受淋头水的影响,就会容易造成脑力衰退等的影响。

化解方法:建议在门口种植植物或者设立门栏,除了可挡风防尘外,也将住宅与外界分隔开来,对阻挡门外形煞及防止财气外泄有一定的作用。

其实,除了以上较常见的“煞气” 如十字路角、路冲、奇形怪状的山、 石、树等之外,如果所选择的房屋刚好面对医院、殡仪馆、坟场、垃圾房、屠场、警察局、监狱、消防局等,也应尽量避免。

风水上强调房屋开门必须要避开煞气与不吉祥的建筑物,主要是指类如医院、殡仪馆、坟场、烟囱、化粪池等一些容易使人感到心理不适的建筑。这些建筑要不是黑烟滚滚,臭气熏天,就是哭嚎或病吟,因此所带来的气流,风水上都视为凶气。

13)警察局 / 消防局

如果屋外看见警局或消防局,则容易犯上“孤阳煞”,表示阳气过重。

危机:家里的成员会不和,并且特别容易招惹官非词讼。

化解方法:可以装设窗帘布,再摆放尖叶,细叶植物和水有关的装饰品, 如鱼缸等来化解。

14)医院 / 殡仪馆

医院或殡仪馆为死人聚集之地,属于阴气煞,容易犯上“独阴煞”。

危机:容易使人情绪低落,疑心生暗鬼,做事缺乏冲劲,时常觉得精神不振。

化解方法:把室内光线尽量调高, 并常保持空气清爽,在屋外贴上玻璃纸或摆放任何植物。

15)坟场

如果从窗外可以看见坟场,而山坟是排列整齐的话,则一般上影响不大。相反如果山坟是歪歪斜斜,并且树木凋零的话,则会阴气过重。

危机:除了景色不雅外,也会对人的精神带来压力,会有疑神疑鬼的现象出现,如果坟场的距离越近,影响则越大!

化解方法:建议家里以白灯为主,如果是装置黄灯,也需把屋内的光线尽量调高。此外,也可以选择用窗帘布来遮蔽。

南洋商报

Reviewing Malaysian REITs

THE Malaysian real estate investment trusts (MREITs) were launched in 2005 after REITs in general hit the stock markets in Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore. Within a year 10 REITs were launched, one repackaged with another two oldies remaining, making up 11 REITs.

Before the global financial turmoil in 2008, the MREITs performed predictably well, yielding 6% to 7% dividend returns with marginal growth in share premium.

By end-2008, along with the rest of the equities market, the MREITs took a severe beating from which they have hardly recovered.

Menara Axis in Petaling Jaya

Some salient points of the MREITs are worth noting.

■ REITS share prices have declined substantially.

The MREITs today show a substantial discount to the net asset values (NAV) of the assets underlying the REITs, ranging from 23% to 39% (as shown in Table 1). The property market, in general, has not shown such drastic changes in values over 2007.

Although the asset base of the MREITs has increased, much of this is due to the injection of new and additional assets and not because of increases in asset values or appreciation in values.

The peculiar nature of this phenomenon is because of the nature of the REITs.

■ On a down market, REITS show equity tendencies, on an up market, REITS show bond tendencies.

Much research has been carried out by academics as to the behaviour of REITs. The research has been inconclusive.

It will appear, from the little information and research that can be done in Malaysia, that MREITs have a tendency to behave like an equity in a down market, that is, if the stock market declines the MREITs will also follow suit, irregardless of the stability, or otherwise of the underlying asset.

However, in an upswing, the fixed nature of the income and the inability of the underlying asset to react quickly forces the MREITs to behave like a fixed-income instrument, like a bond. This phenomenon would explain why the MREITs are now selling at a discount to the NAV.

■ Income to continue at current levels.

It is anticipated that the current income of the MREITs will continue at current levels and may not be affected by the general downturn. Almost all the MREITs were launched before 2007; therefore the rents underpinning their income were at 2006 and 2005 levels.

It is believed that these rents are sustainable and the majority of MREITs did not increase the rental levels to the high levels reached in 2007. Hence, the income and the dividend flow is expected to continue.

■ Sale and leasebacks will continue to perform better.

Another reason the income will be sustainable is because a number of MREITs has secured guaranteed returns on a sale-and-leaseback basis. Therefore, the downturn in the market is shielded.

■ Yields have increased tremendously.

The sustainable income, coupled with the decline in the net asset value, has boosted dividend yields to between 6% and 14%. Table 1 explains the dividend yield position of the MREITs in January 2009. These returns show, on average, an increase of 50% over the previous yields.

■ Singapore yields even higher due to a sharper drop in REITS pricing.

The sharper corrections to the equities market and the more prominent impact of the economy has affected the Singapore REITs, pushing prices down and, thus, increasing yields. Some REITs are giving yields in excess of 25% in Singapore.

■ Injection of new assets will face yield disparities.

The yield disparities have affected the injection of new assets into existing REITs. Most real estate pricings and rental incomes fall between 6% and 8% for commercial properties. When current yields are in excess of these returns, REIT sponsors will be unable to inject new assets at below the dividend yields.

■ Opportunities for acquisition of better quality asset.

However, the current downturn can also provide wonderful opportunities for the acquisition of better quality assets and a more competitive pricing of the real estate.

■ Refinancing.

Financing for REITs has been different from normal financing. As the requirement is for the income to be distributed, almost all the MREITs have been servicing only the interest component of the loan; there is no repayment, partially or otherwise of the loan.

This, coupled with the lower negotiated interest rates regime, has helped the MREITs to declare a higher dividend than the yields from the underlying asset.

In a number of cases, refinancing may be soon. In view of the reduced interest rates currently being considered by the financial institutions, it might be easier to get a lower interest rate.

The MREITs appear to have weathered the financial storm well as the discounts to the net asset value is manageable and not as severe as in other countries.

Added to that is the sustainable income from the rents.

It would appear, therefore, that MREIT yields will be maintained and the downside risks are manageable.

Thestar

Making psychological indicators work for you

Psychological indicators give an insight into how the general crowd in the stock market react to any given condition, says Securities Industry Development Corporation

Economic indicators are useful in giving us some clues on the future direction of the overall economy that will in turn affect a company’s performance.

However, apart from economic indicators, the stock market performance is also affected by business conditions and investors’ confidence.

As such, it is important for us to pay attention to certain psychological indicators that give us an insight into how the general crowd in the market react to any given condition.

Local investors may not be entirely familiar with psychological indicators. Nevertheless, although no official indicators are published here, there is nothing stopping us from establishing our own indicators. It is not rocket science. What is needed is simply careful observation and analysis.


Some of the psychological signals listed below may not be quantitative but would be sufficient to give us some good leads in helping us make prudent investment decisions.

Investors’ reaction to market trends

Lola L. Lopes (1987) in his research titled “Between Hope and Fear: The Psychology of Risk” pointed out that the two main emotions that drive investors’ mood are hope and fear. When the stock market is taking an upward trend, we can observe the people around us buying stocks. Everyone seems to be buying, even the fish monger in the wet market!

The crowd consequently gets bigger and the market becomes hotter with irrational optimism. This sends out a signal to us that the market is at its peak. Hence, this would be the best time to get out of the market.

On the other hand, when the market experiences a downward trend, the smallest of bad news will trigger panic selling from the crowd. It is when the market is overwhelmed by pessimism that we can find opportunities. Our pot of gold is waiting to be discovered, and what is needed of us is careful analysis and cherry picking.

From the cash availability standpoint, during extreme bullishness, what we stand to find is that most cash in the market has already been invested. As such, the demand for stocks becomes lower, which in turn weakens the forces pushing the stock price, leading to a turning point. During periods of extreme bearishness, everyone views the stock market pessimistically and this is where plenty of money in the market can be seen waiting to be invested. However, as the situation improves, investors’ confidence slowly returns, resulting in greater potential for stock prices to be pushed higher.

Spread of rumours

Whenever there is a rumour, especially unfavourable ones regarding a certain company, you will notice its stock price dropping drastically. If what the company talked about has sound fundamentals and we know that the market is over-reacting, then this is the time for us to think about picking up the stock.

When the actual news is eventually announced by the company, the market usually comes to terms with the fact that the impact of such rumours is not as bad as they had initially thought.

This is when the price will rebound. If you do not intend to hold the stock for the long term, then it will be wise to sell. As Benjamin Graham used to say, “The market is always making mountains out of molehills and exaggerating ordinary vicissitudes into major setbacks.”

Major shareholders' transactions

There are times when you can observe large volume transactions taking place, and those carrying out such transactions are the company’s executives or major shareholders. When this happens, it signals to us that something may be happening in the company that we, as outsiders, know nothing about. As the company’s top executives and major shareholders are the ones making strategic decisions and having access to insider information, any unusual actions from them warrants our attention. We have to look into the details of the company if we hold its stocks or are interested in the company as an investment. Announcements on these changes can be found on Bursa Malaysia’s website.

Popularity of companies

The best time to buy a stock is when others fail to take note of the stock’s potential to turn into a gold mine. Once the stock has attracted the attention of institutional buyers, it may be a bit too late for us to jump in, as by then the price will have already gone up. When you start seeing a company’s name or its CEO appearing in the news, talking about the success of its company, the stock price has probably gone up and there is typically insufficient demand from the remaining retailers to push the price up further, later. If you spot a potential gold mine, rush in before others do!

Stay alert, stay ahead!

The important message here is that we must be able to recognise the signals that investors in the market send out before taking any action. Most of the time, it will be wise to keep our cool and act against the crowd. Going against the popular move is not something strange as far as good investing habits are concerned.

As Benjamin Graham aptly put it: “Have the courage of your knowledge and experience. If you have formed a conclusion from the facts and if you know your judgment is sound, act on it — even though others may hesitate or differ. You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right”.

Securities Industry Development Corporation (SIDC), the leading capital markets education, training and information resource provider in Asean, is the training and development arm of the Securities Commission, Malaysia. It was established in 1994 and incorporated in 2007.

Behaviour and projections

This article intends to explore the behavioural side of those who make stock market projections

THE economic tsunami that has hit the world since late-2007 has left many wondering where it is heading, what to expect, etc. Experts as well as laymen make projections, mostly trying to predict when the stock market will hit bottom. Unfortunately, no one can really provide a definite answer. Setting aside the technical details of the various projections that have been and are being made as we speak, this piece intends to explore the behavioural side of those who make these projections.

Gambler Fallacy

According to Hersh Shefrin, in his book titled "Beyond Greed and Fear", research has shown that strategists and analysts are often caught in a behavioural phenomenon called "gambler fallacy"- the misconception that the law of averages can be applied to even a small sample size.

This is illustrated by a simple coin-tossing game. If five consecutive tosses of a coin come up heads, most people tend to think that the sixth toss should be tails, even though the probability of getting either heads or tails is 50/50. Going by this, some predictions tend to project inappropriate trend reversal as evident by a study done by De Bondt in 1991. Based on published predictions by Wall Street analysts, the study shows that the analysts are overly pessimistic after three-year bull markets and overly optimistic after three-year bear markets.

What does this behaviour mean to you?

It is especially important if you use the projections to make investment decisions. When dealing with a bear market that has yet to touch the bottom, using an overly optimistic projection would lead to the wrong decision. You stand to lose by buying certain stocks believing that their prices are low enough and the downtrend is going to reverse anytime soon, only to find that the prices continue to drop. By the time the market actually hits bottom, you may have already used up your resources.

Naive Extrapolation

Studies have shown that individual investors have the behaviour that is quite the opposite of what has been described above. The retailers in the market, for instance, have the tendency of doing simple extrapolation - projecting the future based on the recent past. As a result, they are overly optimistic during bull markets and overly pessimistic during bear markets.

Seasoned investors would always tell you to prepare to leave the market when you hear that people around you (especially those who've hardly ever talked about investing) start to be active in the stock market. This may indicate that the bull run is about to end. Unfortunately, new and inexperienced investors would naively think that the bull run would continue.

The time to look around hard is when no one is talking about buying stocks. Your golden opportunity in getting good stocks at a bargain surfaces when others steer clear of buying them. As Warren Buffett said, "Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well".

Overconfidence

Both the analysts and individual investors have something in common. They are overconfident when it comes to predicting the future. So, they often end up getting surprises. Interestingly, it has also been found that experience plays an important part here. Those who are inexperienced turn out to be the ones that have greater confidence in their predictions and therefore higher expectations in stock market returns. Seasoned investors and analysts, on the other hand, tread with more caution and are more conservative in their investment approach.

Less Predicting, More Reading!

The combined effect of the behavioural phenomena from the investors drives market sentiment. As an intelligent investor, learn to separate yourself from the herd effect and try not to fall into the biased behaviour described above. You need to be aware of the market direction, but don't waste too much time predicting when the market will bottom out. Instead, spend your valuable time reading more and doing your research on the companies of your interest. Understand the fundamentals well and learn from errors that others have made in the market.

Securities Industry Development Corporation, the leading capital markets education, training and information resource provider in Asean, is the training and development arm of the Securities Commission Malaysia. It was es tablished in 1994 and incorporated in 2007.

The ABC of warrants

One possible reason warrants take a back seat to stocks is the lack of understanding among investors. However, they can be a good alternative investment vehicle to consider.

INVESTORS, Malaysian investors typically, often delve into the know-how of stock investing and unit trust. However, relatively little is said about warrants. One of the many possible reasons that warrants take a back seat to stocks is the lack of understanding among investors.

You may have been told that investing in warrants is risky; that they are more volatile compared to stocks.

However, if you spend some time to learn about them, you will discover that warrants are in fact a good alternative investment vehicle for you to consider. You can make it a part of your investment portfolio and allow yourself room for diversity if you understand it well enough.

An article called "The ABC of Warrants" may seem elementary to some, but it always pays to get your foundation right!

* What is a warrant or call warrant?

A warrant or call warrant basically gives the holder the right, but not the obligation to purchase a specific number of the mother or underlying shares at a specific price within a specific period. They are often included in a new debt issue as a "sweetener" to entice investors.

The holder of a warrant or call warrant will not have any voting or dividend rights as that enjoyed by shareholders. As such you need to be mindful of the fact that as a holder of warrants or call warrants, you will not be entitled to have a say in the company's management decisions.

* Warrant vs call warrants

The typical difference between a warrant and a call warrant is that a warrant is issued by a company for the purpose of raising capital for that company.

Warrants are usually tagged with a longer maturity, usually more than 4 years stretching up to 10 years.

A call warrant on the other hand is issued by third party financial institutions on shares of an unrelated company or shares of a basket of companies. Call warrants usually come with a much shorter maturity period of less than one year.

* American or European?

Warrants or call warrants can also be subdivided into two categories based on their exercise style - either American or European. An American warrant can be exercised at any time up to its maturity date while a European warrant can only be exercised at its maturity date.

What happens when an investor exercises his rights for a company's warrant is that the company will issue new shares to meet the obligations which will result in share dilution. As for a call warrant, the issuer will meet its obligation using outstanding shares. Hence, no new shares will be issued under the call warrant. If the warrants or call warrants are not exercised on expiration, they will turn worthless.

* Value of warrants and call warrants

The value of a warrant is determined by two main factors, its intrinsic value and time value. Its intrinsic value is the difference between the current price of the underlying asset and the warrant's exercise price.

A warrant has a limited life span and as such, when you are looking at the time value, as time passes the value will decrease accordingly until it turns zero on expiration. The factors that will positively affect a warrant's time value are the expected volatility of the underlying stock and the warrant's time to maturity.

* Why invest in warrants?

The main benefit of investing in a warrant is cost leveraging. When you invest in a warrant, you stand to gain from the exposure of the share price movement at only a fraction of its cost. In terms of percentage, a warrant is more sensitive to the market movement compared to its underlying assets.

Therefore, by investing in a warrant, it allows you to benefit from unlimited upside at a lower cost. Apart from that, you can free up your capital to invest in other investments. The downside risk of not being able to exercise the warrant is only the loss of the warrant premium.

* What should you do?

If you want to invest in warrants, you should first understand how the product works and the risks associated with them. The performance of a warrant is closely linked to the price movement of its underlying assets. As such, if you are expecting an uptrend market and have strong confidence in the underlying shares, then the chances of you reaping rewards from investing in warrants is very high.

However, if the market is experiencing a downward trend and the time to maturity of your warrants is limited, then you should be more cautious in buying them. This is particularly crucial if the current market price of the underlying share is lower than the exercise price of the warrant.

A more disciplined way of investing in warrants is to set a time limit for the underlying share to reach your targeted price. If the price does not measure up to your expectations by then, you will need to re-evaluate your position according to your risk/return profile.

In instances where the stock market has been bearish and you have no idea whether the market trend is going to reverse anytime soon, then, you may want to go for warrants with a longer time to maturity. A warrant based on an underlying stock that is in good financial health with good business prospect and has at least 3 years to maturity can be an option for you.


Securities Industry Development Corporation (SIDC), the leading capital markets education, training and information resource provider in Asean, is the training and development arm of the Securities Commission, Malaysia. It was established in 1994 and incorporated in 2007.

Why investors behave the way they do


Learning from other market players’ mistakes; analysing how and what they think, can help an investor emerge as a winner in the market

In recent years, behavioural finance has been gaining grounds in trying to explain the financial anomalies in the stock market. These anomalies, which cannot be addressed by traditional financial theory such as the market efficiency theory may sound purely theoretical, but you cannot brush aside the need to understand the psychology of investors as it plays a big part in driving the stock market.

What is Behavioural Finance?


Behavioural finance is the study to explain the financial behaviour from the psychological aspect. Over the years, market psychologists have discovered that the two primary emotions that drive investors' risk-taking behaviour are hope and fear. There are a few key behavioural concepts that will help us to understand why some of us behave in certain ways when it comes to making investment decisions. In this article, we talk about four of such concepts:

* Regret theory


Regret, a simple enough concept to understand by any layman, refers to the emotional experience that one goes through when confronted with the wrong decision that he or she has made. It manifests itself in the form of pain when one feels responsible for not doing the right thing. When you look back at your investment history, try to recall the state you were in when you missed the chance to cut losses or missed the opportunity to buy a stock that you knew you should have bought because it was considered a good buy. Try and remember how you felt when the price of that particular stock that you did not buy increased subsequently. This emotion often becomes embedded in someone's mind in such a way that it regulates his or her future actions and decisions.

As a result, most investors make it a habit to avoid selling a loss-making stock and instead hope that the price will rebound eventually - all this, to avoid the feeling of regret. They would much rather make a paper loss than admit that they have made a mistake. In some cases, where the bad decisions happen to be recommended by their financial advisers, investors will put the blame on the advisers to avoid regret.

* Prospect theory

Prospect theory developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (1979), states that "we have an irrational tendency to be less willing to gamble with profits than with losses". Kahneman and Tversky found that when confronted with the choice between accepting a sure loss and taking a chance, most people will choose the latter. This phenomenon is called "loss aversion", which basically means that in general, people hate to lose. So, when faced with a situation involving loss, they become risk takers; they take the chance even if there is only the slightest hope of not having to lose.

On the other hand, when presented with a sure gain, they usually become risk-averse. Investors who behave this way tend to mark their stocks to the price that they originally paid to secure them and not to market. As such, they aim to get even before closing out a position. This type of investors usually ends up holding on to their loss-making stocks for far too long, which may very well prove detrimental to them in the end.


* Overconfidence

It is human nature for us to over-estimate our abilities and shower ourselves with a little too much confidence, i.e, overconfidence. Studies show that investors are often overconfident when it comes to their ability to predict the market's direction. Oddly enough, this is something that is more prominent among novice investors. Compared to experienced investors, those who are new to the market tend to set higher return expectations and end up being overwhelmed by the unfavourable outcome. As a result of overconfidence, some investors tend to trade too frequently only to get unsatisfactory returns or worse yet, losses. With the convenience of online trading, some even quit their full-time jobs to do day trading, thinking that they have the ability to predict the market and earn fast money. These are the people that usually end up getting burned if they do so without proper understanding of what they have been buying and selling, especially when the market is highly volatile.


* Anchoring


This is a behavioural phenomenon in which people tend to extrapolate the past into the future, putting heavier weight on the recent past. At times, when there are new announcements from companies, analysts fail to adjust their earnings forecast for the companies to reflect the latest information due to the anchoring effect. As a result, they land themselves with a few surprises when positive news become more positive and vice versa.

What has been discussed above are a few common behavioural phenomena experienced by investors that are useful to know. By understanding the psychology behind investors' behaviours, you can learn to recognise mistakes and avoid making such mistakes yourself. Learning from other market players' mistakes; analysing how and what they think, can help you emerge as a winner in the market.

Securities Industry Development Corp, the leading capital markets education, training and information resource provider in Asean, is the training and development arm of the Securities Commission, Malaysia. It was established in 1994 and incorporated in 2007.

Spendaholic anonymous


Do you find yourself constantly short of cash? Makes you wonder where the money goes? Then read on.

THIS is not a spin-off from “Confessions of a Shopaholic” that has recently hit the big screens and you will not find Isla Fisher giving you shopping advice here. Although the title may sound like it belongs to one of the many “shopaholic” installments created by Sophie Kinsella, what we wish to convey here are simple but fundamental messages to which you should pay attention. You may find them simple enough, but you may have faced repeated failures in taming that “Rebecca Bloomwood” lurking beneath that calm and collected exterior of yours.

So, read this with an open mind — whether you are a man or a woman, there must have been instances, where your compulsive desire to splurge is so overwhelming that you succumb to it.

You can never play down the importance of prudent money management habits. It is what determines the extent to which you develop yourself as a successful investor. Investing needs money, and in order to get that money, you have to manage what you have wisely.

Remember, a good investor is not only one who uses information and makes correct informed investment decisions but also one who manages his or her spending well. There is no point in having a good investment plan that fails to take off because you don’t have the necessary amount of money to actually start investing. Having a good investment portfolio that can generate good returns also serves no purpose if you deplete your cash on unnecessary spending.

Do you find yourself constantly short of cash? Makes you wonder where the money goes? Then read on. If any of the scenarios listed below bring back flashes of déjà vu, chances are you are a “spendaholic”.
The BIG money is on its way

From the grapevine, you heard your company will be giving out bonuses. So you start spending big, usually using credit cards. You end up with financial problems because the bonus was far less than had expected or, worse, there aren’t any!
If you are a spendaholic, you are not alone. Many people struggle with their spending habits and don’t know where to draw the line.

Shopping and spending have become a modern-day manifestation of the old human hunting and gathering behaviour. Instead of getting the biggest woolly mammoth, we now go to the malls or shopping complexes searching for the ”big kill”. It is a problem but it can be overcome.


Did not receive early
financial education

No one has taught you about managing your finances and you don’t bother to learn or seek help. Your simple motto in life is to work hard and spend even harder.


Why not, right? You have earned every little cent through hard work, it only makes sense for you to blow some, or for some, a rather substantial sum, of what you rake in monthly on a branded watch, a pair of shoes, handbags, new sports rim for that brand new car you bought.
Lifestyle maintenance

Once you are accustomed to a life of luxury or keeping up with the trends, you feel compelled to maintain it, even under financial constraints. You feel that you have no choice but to live up to that upper class image that you have built for yourself. So you continue to spend.
The word budget is not in your vocabulary

You just fail to plan your budget or if you have one, you just ignore it. Spending on things that you like without considering whether you can afford it has led you to financial hardship. Most people experience financial failure not because they plan to fail but because they fail to plan. Sounds familiar? Sounds like you?
To keep up with marketing ads

You flick through a magazine and read advertisements on the latest handphone or latest fashion. You cannot resist getting the latest items and end up turning yourself into a walking advertisement for the very same company you buy your goods from.
Festive seasons are here

One of the joys of being in multiracial Malaysia is the all-year-round festive celebrations. From weeks before the festive season, Malaysians always think NEW! And you are no exception. It means buying things like a new sofa, new curtains or new clothes, even though the ones you have are still in good condition and hardly worn.
Credit card mania

It is so easy to obtain a credit card these days. There are credit card promoters at every corner of a shopping mall and your supermarket. What owning a credit card does for you is that it creates an illusion that you have thousands of ringgit to your name to spend. You tend to feel that you have more money than you really do. You fail to remember that the credit card statement you get at the end of the month is going to be a big bang!
Too many sales

If the one thing in Malaysia you see no signs of slowing down, despite the trend the economy is taking, is our ever regular cheap sales. When sales are held, the whole nation goes on a buying frenzy and you get caught in the shopping mood. After all, items spotting 60 per cent and 70 per cent discounted tags are must buys. When else are you going to get such a good bargain? So, you find yourself spending uncontrollably, even on things you don’t really need.

We typically fall under either one or more of the eight scenarios listed here. If you find yourself unable to relate to any of them, congratulations! You have managed to dodge the cupid’s arrow for unnecessary spending! It is either that or you are in denial. If you are in denial, you may want to snap out of it as the biggest step anyone can take is to realise that he or she has a problem and wants to find ways to resolve it.

The new year is not on the horizon yet, but make a resolution today to plan your spending and manage your debt well. The earlier you save, the more you have to invest!


“Confessions of a Shopaholic” is one of the latest films to hit the cinemas in Malaysia. It is based on a popular book written by Sophie Kinsella with Rebecca Bloomwood as the main character; a financial journalist, who is in a serious amount of debt through her shopping addiction. Source: Wikipedia


Securities Industry Development Corporation (SIDC), the leading capital markets education, training and information resource provider in Asean, is the training and development arm of the Securities Commission, Malaysia. It was established in 1994 and incorporated in 2007.

化解煞气DIY (中)


从风水的角度来看,外围环境的变化,对房屋的吉凶是会产生一定程度的影响。

如果外围环境的变化对房屋所带来的影响是凶的,风水上的专用名词,便称为“犯煞”。

其实,很多人对所谓的“煞气”都十分敏感,因此在选择居住环境时,都会比较谨慎和留意,尽量避免选择 “煞气”过重的房屋,以免引致很多不如意的事情发生。

上一期和大家介绍过如天斩煞、飞刃煞、镰刀煞、火煞和光煞等“煞气”外,还有很多不同类型的煞气也要特别谨慎和小心处理,以免日后 “一触即发”而带来祸害。

6)枪煞

从风水的角度来看,街道直冲也是风水大忌之一,因为直冲的来势急剧进而形成一种煞气。如果屋子的大门或 窗口正对着直冲而来的马路,或者是家中的大门对正有一条直长的走廊,防如一只长枪迎面射过来, 便称为犯“枪煞”一般来说,路越阔,越短,威力就越少;但如果是又长又窄的路,便要小心处理了。

危机:家人容易脾气暴躁并且也会惹上血光之灾。此外,也有钱财不聚,容易漏财。

化解方法:建议在屋外放植物如仙人掌或尖叶植物来化解煞气。

7)廉贞煞

古云:“后靠明山当掌权”,也就是说如果住宅是依山而建,而其背后所靠的山是山形秀丽而且树木茂盛的,我们就称为有利的风水局。但如果所靠的山是山石嶙峋,寸草不生的穷山,风水学上就称为“廉贞煞”。

危机:容易有腰骨酸痛的毛病,并且也有被小人陷害并惹上官非的危险。

化解方法:可以考虑贴反光纸或在窗外放凸镜来反射。此外,也可挂上窗帘布来遮挡。

8)穿心煞

如果在住宅门前看到一条直柱形的物体如电灯柱,树木等,仿如把门一分为二的,就称为犯“穿心煞”。

危机:犯此煞表示眼睛有事,头痛,烦躁易怒并且有消化不良的问题。

化解方法:建议在门口处摆放尖形植物来化解,当然最彻底地解决方法则是改变进门的方向。

9)倾斜山坡

在选择地势较高的房屋时,我们必须要确定屋子的前方,最好是地势平坦或者是缓斜坡,最忌面对下陷,急斜坡或者是悬崖。

危机:从风水角度看,房屋的大门对正一条倾泻的山坡,除了容易家财泄漏之外,也会让人有一泻千里的负面感受,对身体健康的影响也极大。

化解方法:建议在门外做一个围墙,不过此做法只适合用在明堂(前方)宽阔的房屋。否则,也可以考虑种植物并且以大叶为主。

10)风煞

如果发觉房屋附近风大,风势相当急劲,则表示旺气难于凝聚。此外,如果选择的房屋刚好是处于两栋高层建筑物的夹道之处,也是不适宜居住,因为会经常形成“峡谷” 之风 ,造成“风煞”。

危机:由于这类动而有力的疾风属阴,人长久居住在此地,就会导致风湿伤寒,对身体健康有害。

化解方法:古语有云:“气乘风散,界水则止”,建议作一个小池塘,让空气流至海河时而被止截,那么吉气就会在这里凝聚。

南洋商报

Unit trust fund prospectus: What you need to know

Almost everyone everywhere may have heard this message "Please read the prospectus before investing". Be it from the radio or by any pamphlets/leaflets in relation to unit trust investing.

The question is - do you know how to read one?

What is a prospectus?

A prospectus is the most important document that you need to get hold of before committing yourself to a fund. It serves as a roadmap for you to know what you can expect to get from the fund.

Since there is a wide range of unit trust funds being offered in the market with various investment objectives and risks involved, investors need to make wise decisions in choosing suitable funds for themselves. As with any other form of investment, investors need to do their homework first before jumping on the bandwagon. This among others, entails reading unit trust funds' prospectuses.

Guide to reading a prospectus

Before you make that final call to part with your money, get yourself a copy of prospectuses from different funds and read through them to get a better understanding of the different funds available.

Here are some of the key elements that you need to remember when reading a prospectus:

* Investment objective

* Investment objectiveWhile some funds are aimed at providing a steady stream of income, others are mainly focused on gaining long-term capital growth, or a mix between the two. Depending on your own investment objective, when you choose a unit trust fund, make sure that the investment objective of the fund is consistent with what you intend to achieve with your money.

* Investment strategy

* Investment strategyThis tells you how the fund managers are going to achieve the stated objective; the approach that they are going to take and how the asset allocation is going to be in terms of exposure to various investment vehicles and sector selections. It also highlights the relevant domestic or foreign exposures of the fund. You may want to check on the fund's turnover rate, as to how frequent the managers re-balance the portfolio through buying and selling. High frequency of trading may indicate high transaction cost, which will eventually eat into the profit of the fund.

* Risk factors

* Risk factorsPay attention to the risk factors stated and compare them to your own risk profile and risk tolerance level. The risk factors faced are typically market risk, interest risk, liquidity risk and credit risk. A fund holding investments in emerging markets will be subjected to the economic and political conditions there. Any changes in the foreign currency exchange rate will affect the return of the respective funds.

* Investors' profile

* Investors' profileMost prospectuses include an investor profile as guidance for potential investors. It tells you the characteristics of investors who will potentially invest in the fund. However, this is subject to your own unique circumstances that you will need to observe.

* Financial performance

* Financial performanceThis serves as a good indicator of how the fund is managed, especially if the fund has been in existence for a long period. If the fund has managed to survive through adverse conditions, you will naturally have more confidence in its future performance. You can also use this to compare a particular fund's performance with that of other similar funds and its performance benchmark.

Remember! Past performance does not guarantee future success of the fund!

* Fees and charges

* Fees and charges As all unit trust funds are professionally managed, various expenses and charges will be incurred, compared to an outright purchase of a security. Some of the relevant fees and charges are:

1) Load (sales commission)

Load funds can charge a front-end load (when you purchase fund shares) or a back-end load (when you sell your shares).

2) Redemption fee

While loads are calculated on the amount you invest, redemption fees are calculated as a percentage of the value of your account when you get out.

3) Purchase fee

You may be charged for share purchases. While a front-end load is paid to a broker, purchase fees are paid to the fund for some of the fund's costs associated with the purchase.

4) Exchange fee

This is incurred for exchange (transfer) to another fund within the same fund family.

5) Management fees

This is paid out of the fund's assets and covers operating expenses of the fund's managers and advisors.

6) Distribution fees

This covers fees paid for distribution of fund literature, marketing costs, and sales commissions paid to brokers.

7) Administrative fees

Included here are expenses such as custodial expenses, legal expenses, accounting expenses, and transfer agent expenses.

All the above charges will be added up when calculating a fund's expense ratio, which is expressed as a percentage of the fund's assets. It will enable you to make a meaningful comparison among the cost structure of different funds.

Last words

Prospectuses may not be as attention grabbing or engaging as your hot selling novels, but reading them is a must! Spending some of your precious time going through them is definitely worthwhile! It helps to prevent you from making investment decisions that you will end up regretting later. Confucius once said, "Good people strengthen themselves ceaselessly" and we believe that good investors strengthen themselves with constant pursuit of knowledge endlessly.

Securities Industry Development Corporation (SIDC), the leading capital markets education, training and information resource provider in Asean, is the training and development arm of the Securities Commission, Malaysia. It was established in 1994 and incorporated in 2007.

Getting real about returns




One of a financial consultant’s hardest jobs is to educate his clients about rates of return. Most people have very little idea about the rates of return on their investments. Worse, what inkling they have is always some far-out figure, something like 100% a year. Some people think it is normal. Others might even belittle the figure. “Hah, my uncle’s neighbour’s second cousin made 1,500% in seven days!”Perhaps this situation came about because of the massive publicity given to the stellar performances by world-class fund managers: Warren Buffett, John Templeton, George Soros and Peter Lynch. These four gentlemen each gave returns of above 14% per annum for over 10 years. And of course, all of us would hear — but never see any black and white — claims of even higher figures obtained by men in dark shadows. Let me now share the truth about rates of return from investments.Firstly, I must clarify that the rates of return that I’m talking about here are those from investments (stocks, unit trusts, mutual funds, and so on) and not from running a business. Investment is where you hand over your money to others and they manage the fund. This clarification is important as the return from business can go into the stratosphere. That is a topic for another article.Next, when looking at rates of return, you must look at them on a yearly basis. Fund managers are fond of showing the cumulative total returns instead of the annual figure. Why? Because the cumulative total returns figure always looks impressive. For example, Fund ABC gave a cumulative return of 47% after five years while Fund XYZ gave a cumulative return of 116% after 10 years. We have to admit the figures are certainly impressive. It’ll certainly make you sit up and take notice. But which fund performed better? It’s not easy for most investors to compare the two funds, as the periods are different. Actually, the annual compounded returns for both funds are the same — 8%. This is why you should always look at annual compounded return. It’s a more accurate measure and will enable you to compare different investments for the different periods.Third, and this is very important, the period must be for five years or longer. Why? Simple — rates of return can be distorted if you look at them over a short period. An investment can give a 30%, 40% or even 100% return in one year. It can do that for two or even three years. Why? Because the manager could have been lucky. He could have bought at the right time, and the market shot up immediately after that. As an example, any unit trust fund launched in 2005 and 2006 in Malaysia would have seen fabulous returns by mid-2007, probably above 20% per annum. Now it could be because the managers were good, smart and Capricorns to boot. But a more likely reason would be because Bursa Malaysia and the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index rose to an all-time high during the period.So, if you had based your decisions to invest in a fund on the stellar performance during the two years, you would have lost a significant amount of money today. We all know what has been happening in recent months — stock markets all over the world, including Bursa Malaysia, did a Humpty Dumpty and came tumbling down. So, if you look at the performance of the fund from 2007 to 2008, you would see a negative figure.That is why you must look at the performance over a period of five years or longer. You’ll get a more accurate picture. Very few funds can give stellar performances year in, year out. While they can do well for two or three years, the returns will eventually regress to the mean and come down. Here’s another example: There were two occasions when George Soros gave investors in his Quantum Fund returns of over 100% a year. But when averaged over 20 years, his return was 34%, which, to my knowledge, is still the highest of any fund manager in the world.Another important point is to know the range of probable returns that you are looking at. Without this information, you could be expecting too much out of the investment. Worse, you could be taken for a ride. For example, in the US, the real return (nominal return minus inflation rate) from 1871 to 1992 (a period of 120 years) for cash deposits was 1.9%, bonds 2.3% and stocks 6.5%. Of course, there were exceptional years in between. For example, stocks gave a return of 16.6% in the 1980s and 13% in the 1990s, the first double-digit returns seen over two consecutive decades.It is important to remember the 29% average annual return over 13 years achieved by Peter Lynch when he ran the Fidelity Magellan Fund. It is being quoted years after it happened. It is still being quoted because it is among the highest and the best performances of any fund manager in the world. Now if legends like Lynch gave “only” 29%, you cannot, and should not, expect more than that from ordinary managers. By the way, this figure applies to any investments.Actually, if you can get a consistent 10% to 15% a year, thank your lucky stars. If you can get a 10% return a year, you would double your money every seven years, which, we have to admit, is not a bad state of affairs. Finally, it is also critical to stick with the system once you have found one that works for you. As you know, the value of all investments fluctuates: It goes up, it comes down. If you have chosen well, the ups will be more than downs and, hopefully, the trend is upwards. This being the case, you should not let short-term price fluctuations affect your judgment. You should not panic and sell when the price has dropped. If all the reasons that made you buy the investment in the first place are still applicable, why sell? Stick to the plan. I have to mention this because people have sold out and lost money even when they were actually holding winners. After he retired at the age of 47, Lynch reported that, wonder of wonders, most of the investors in the Fidelity Magellan Fund lost money during his stellar run! They had bought into the fund when the market was doing well. Obviously, they paid a high price at that time as the market was peaking. Unfortunately, they panicked and sold out during the times the fund went south. Imagine that: the investors were actually holding a winner and yet, they lost money!So again, stick with a winning formula and ignore short-term price fluctuations. If you can do all this, you’ll be home free. You’ll be a happier, more contented person and more importantly, you’ll be growing your money in the process.


This article appeared in Issue 90 (February 2009) of Personal Money, the personal finance magazine published by The Edge Communications Sdn Bhd

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

學大師心法‧致富不求人

正職為基金經理,《最好的基金經理是你自己》的作者在書中引用了不少投資大師的名言心法,配合自己的投資經驗,教授散戶投資致勝的方法,讓散戶掌握自己的投資。

美國著名投資顧問菲立費雪(Philip A.Fisher)認為,要改善投資的成績,就要瞭解自己所投資的東西。他會深入瞭解具有潛力的公司,然後才投入大筆資金投資,他將目標股票的數目減到10隻以下,並把60%的資金集中在當中的3至4間公司。

持股種類不用太多

費雪深信,持有的股票種類愈少,獲利機會反而愈多。股神巴菲特的看法與費雪十分相近,他認為投資者只要認真做好研究,找到投資目標後,就要將自己擁有的10%資產投放進去,因此在巴菲特眼中,最佳的投資組合內所包含的股票不用超過10隻。

獨立思考公司前景

散戶投資者大多欠缺足夠時間及技巧,來評估上市公司的投資價值,只能參考別人的建議,使自己投資決策掌握在別人的三言兩語間。

作者認為這種投資者難以成功,因為成功的投資者會廣泛閱讀各個領域的書籍,對理想公司的特點瞭如指掌,有能力去解答個人對目標投資的疑惑。作者指出,並非人人都適合買股票,那些對公司調查毫無興趣,看到資產負責表便會頭痛、看年報只看彩色圖片的人,便不適合投資股票了。

“Tenbagger股票”指那些能夠讓投資者獲利10倍或以上的股票,“金牌基金經理”彼得林奇(Peter Lynch)曾歸納出Tenbagger股票的特點:

公司所身處的行業市場空間日漸擴大,只要這間公司具有競爭優勢,就能分享得到市場擴張所帶來的收益。

公司盈利年增長率為20至25%,假設公司估值不變,當盈利增長率超過25%時,公司10年間的盈利及股價將會上升約10倍。

科網泡沫爆破,使不少科網公司於市場消失,主流的科網公司不少至今仍未恢復元氣,反映出新興行業的投資風險可以超出想像。“亞洲股神”東尼(Tony Measor)亦曾說過,過熱的新股不值得追捧,因為保薦人往往揀選最有利時機上市,而這些股票翌年的業績亦往往教人失望。

避開新興行業狂熱

作者奉勸投資者避開新興行業狂熱,因為新興行業需要很長的投資期,最好是待泡沫爆破,新興行業炒賣狂熱過去,公司已進入收成後,才去購入那些股票。

星洲日報/投資致富

投资全球基金的十大理由

统智慧认为国际股市的风险要明显高于华尔街。

从 投资选择来看,很多美国人对此表示认同。美国投资公司学会(Investment Company Institute)的数据显示,美国共同基金投资者所持有的本地股市共同基金资产是所持投资海外共同基金的三倍还多。随着投资者纷纷撤资离市,他们抛售 海外股票基金的比例也是抛售本地基金的两倍。毕竟,全球股市去年面临着双重打击:一方面几乎所有地区股市都在不断下滑,另一方面美元不断升值也降低了海外 资产对美国投资者的吸引力。

但这条传统智慧真的是金科玉律吗?

我列出了十条理由来反驳这一观点。如果你想重回股市,实际上购买一只全球性股市基金会比一只唯独投资美国股市的基金更为安全。

1、你已经在美国经济拥有大量风险了。你在这里工作,或许在这里买房安居。因此,大多数情况下,你的大部分朋友和家人也是这样。你并不需要加大风险赌注。

2、只投资一个国家会增加所谓的“日本风险”--即你的投资有可能会葬送在某个走势低迷的股市中,就象1989年后日本投资者所经历的情况。但那些投资全球的投资者却能够从不断走高的国际市场上获利。

3、强势美元的好日子似乎屈指可数。不断扩大的联邦赤字使得市场再次质疑美元走势。美元最终还会再次下滑,到时候,持有海外股票的美国投资者就会从中受益。

4、美国股市是全球最大也是最为知名的市场。因此,美国股市也比海外股市更有可能估值过高。这对投资者来说不是什么好事。按照FactSet提供的数据,目前美国股市市净率为1.7倍,而全球其他地区为1.1倍。

5、“海外市场风险高”说的是以前的情况了,当时还没有几个资本主义国家。现在这个观点似乎已经彻底过时,看起来有点荒谬可笑。

6、这个论断还要追溯到当年美国占据全球经济半壁江山的年代。现在美国只占了全球经济的四分之一左右。将你的投资视野只局限于这么小的一块领域,实在是没有意义。

7、美国经济即便能够避免进一步下滑,也仍要艰难应对债务重担。与此相反,亚洲经济却拥有巨额储蓄。押宝美国经济而非亚洲经济,真是一场赌博。

8、投资全球可以确保你的风险同时分布在增长迅速的新兴市场以及较为发达的市场。谁知道下个十年哪些经济体会兴旺繁荣?

9、虽然很多国际市场过去两年的投资回报较为糟糕,但长远来看表现却好于美国市场。根据FactSet的计算,如果10年前把所有资金都投到华尔街,就算把股息再投资计算在内,投资仍然缩水了3%。如果同期回避美国股市而投资海外市场,那么现在投资则会增长38%。

10、在 过去的关键时刻,投资全球可以将风险降至最低。加州大学欧文分校经济学教授乔瑞(Philippe Jorion)说,即便在1929-1932年的股灾中,投资全球也可以给投资者带来巨大帮助。他说,算入股息再投资,美国市场低点时损失了69%左右。 而全球市场总体来看只下滑了大约53%。

诚然,过去私人投资者很难投资海外市场。也难怪大多数投资者不得不留守华尔街而惨遭打击。但现在,有数目众多的全球共同基金和上市交易基金供投资者选择。

Brett Arends

(编者按:本文作者Brett Arends是《华尔街日报》网络版专栏作家,他的专栏《投资回报》帮助投资者分析最新时事并做出相应投资决定。)

投资的“五要、五不要”

管近期股市出现了上涨,但过去18个月里市场的表现仍让投资组合损失累累。就业仍在快速下降,经济衰退的阴影挥之不去,决策者都在忙于实施代价高昂而复杂的解决办法。

在我们经历这些困难时期时,你应当如何考虑自己的财务状况?最基本的一点是要记住吉卜林(Kipling)所写的:在别人糊涂时依然保持清醒。

Jonathan Barkat
在 眼下这种时刻,很容易产生情况永远也不会好转的想法。但如果说历史对我们有所启迪,那就是事情最终会改善。事实上,按以往经济动荡的标准判断,这次衰退的 时间已经挺久了。二战以后的衰退平均持续时间为11个月,最长是1981年至1982年之间的16个月。本轮危机已经持续了15个月。

此外,触底的迹象也开始显现。石油价格已开始上升,表明需求出现了一些增加。中国恢复了对铝的进口。此外,刺激计划将在今年晚些时候开始产生作用,创造就业机会,或许还有助于缓解市场中的严重恐慌情绪。

因此,未来的前景肯定是光明的。在此之前,这里有一些策略帮助你保持清醒的头脑:在考虑应如何保护和增加你的资产时应该坚决做到的“五要”和“五不要”。

让我们先从“五要”开始:

1. 减少负债

我们很多人在过去十年里用信用卡和其他负债进行了过多的透支。现在这些债务就像达摩克利斯之剑一样悬在人们头上。

目前的当务之急就是减少这种高成本负债,并把其排在为退休储蓄或投资股市之前。一个明智的策略是利用下跌了许多的汽油价格。一年前,美国许多地区的汽油价格都超过了每加仑4美元。而今天的价格还不到当时的一半。你应该把省下来的钱用于减少你的信用卡债务。

2. 精打细算

节俭正当其时。这意味着精打细算,认真思忖你的开支,寻找省钱良方。也许你外出就餐的次数超出了你的设想,或是在咖啡上花的钱太多。预算对很多人都缺乏约束力,现在应该重新认识这点了。

有不少免费网站,如Mint.com、Quicken.com和Wesabe.com,可以帮助你甄别开支,让你在什么地方能省钱的问题上找到点感觉。

你只要上传你的信用卡和其它账户的密码信息,这类网站就会对数据进行汇总和分类,这样你就可以看到你在食品、外出就餐和电影等方面的支出情况了。然后,你可以跟踪一段你的消费习惯,并为作出一些调整以省钱。

而且,其中一些网站(尤其是Wesabe)还有很活跃的讨论各种预算问题的社区。如果你是刚开始制定预算规则,与志同道合的人讨论一下可能会令这项工作更轻松。

3. 谨防通胀

目前,通货膨胀基本还不算一个问题。美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)以及大多数评论家都认为通货膨胀在短期内不足为虑。

然而,正在发生的许多事情可能让通货膨胀的幽灵迅速出现。

首先,联邦政府正在像喝醉的水手一样大肆挥霍。近8,000亿美元的刺激计划、4万亿美元的预算计划(高于上一年的3万亿美元)以及数千亿美元的银行、房地产和信贷救助方案。最重要的是,美联储设定的短期利率已基本为零,其它国家的利率水平也相当低了。

所有这一切就像一大堆干柴,只等火花一闪。一旦遇到火花,增长和通胀就可能迅速卷土重来。

出于这个原因,在你的固定收益投资中持有部分财政部通货膨胀保值债券(TIPS)当是明智之举。同普通美国国债一样,这些债券不但受到了美国政府的支持,而且本身还具有保护功能,可在通货膨胀时提高回报率。

另一个对冲通货膨胀的策略是投资大宗商品。当经济恢复增长时,对石油、铜和其他大宗商品的需求将会增加,从而将推动它们的价格上涨。不过,应该注意:鉴于商品的波动性,理财规划师建议,投资者对这个行业的投资不应超过其投资组合的5%至10%。

4. 要有股市投资战略

尽 管最近股价有所上扬,但投资者对股市仍持警惕态度。股市自2007年末不断创出新高后一路下跌,这种情况造成的痛苦不是靠一轮为时4周的上涨就能消除的。 当有这么多的怀疑笼罩着股市时,通常也就到了考虑投资股市的时候了。尽管过去18个月里我们大部分人都在股市上遭受了切肤之痛,但股市和经济一样,不会永 远保持低迷状态。

不过这并不是说要一古脑儿扎进股市。还是考虑先通过退休帐户进入股市。对我们很多人来说,这个帐户时间更长,又有着固有的纳税方面的优势,而且公司还常常会再出一部分──这其实都是白得的钱。

在退休帐户之外,要保持分散投资于股票、债券和现金上。一条经验法则是,更安全的债券投资占总投资的百分比应该与你的年龄相同。比如,如果你50岁,你在股票和债券上的投资就该是50%对50%。如果你想更为保守一些,可以减少股市上的敞口,转而持有现金。

即便是在最近股市上扬的情况下,你目前所持有的债券占你总资产的比例或许仍高于通常水平,因为债券去年表现不错,今年也依然强劲。如果是这种情况,那么多持有一些股票是有意义的,特别是在股价如此之低的时候。

5. 要保护已有的收益

过去几年的教训之一是,股市和你的房子可不是自动取款机,而是价值可涨可跌的资产。在当前这个有挑战的时期,拥有一个保护已有收益的战略是谨慎的做法。

除资产投资分散化(股票、债券和现金)外,股市投资也要保持分散化。买进大范围的低成本指数基金,而不要买某只个股,以减小风险敞口。

把以防万一的资金放在较安全的投资上,比如通货膨胀保值债券、定期存单,或评级较高的市政债券或公司债券。一条不错的经验法则是,留出一笔相当于6个月收入的备用金,万一失业就可以派上用场。

你绝对不该做的又是什么呢?

1. 不要把钱埋在后院里

考虑到现在的形势,人们可能很容易会想干脆什么也不投了。对金融体系失灵的担心,股市不确定的本性,甚至只是一种不祥之感,这些都会让人们认为把钱放在后院、床垫或空罐子里都更明智一些。

不过这却是大错特错了。银行保险体系对低于25万美元的资产是能起作用的。我知道这点,因为我工作的银行倒闭了,而资产却实现了“无缝”转移。因此,至少把现金放到定存单中还能获得一些收益。过于小心谨慎或担心害怕会让你的金钱受到损失;不要让这点发生在你的身上。

2. 不要追逐回报

这在任何市场上都是很大的诱惑,但在眼下就更为明显。债券去年大幅上扬,但一些分析师认为这可能是下一个等待破灭的泡沫。

简而言之,不要在已经出现这种巨大涨幅的资产上“双倍下注”。你参与这场游戏的时间可能太迟了,因为大多数的涨幅都已经走完了。这可能使你的投资组合向一个方向大幅变化,让你容易受到此前热门资产类别下跌的冲击。

这么说吧,过去几年里,追逐回报的诱惑令人们买了太多的房子,在大幅飙升的股市上投入重金,大肆推高油价。这些结果都不好。

3. 不要放弃分散投资

现在人们只持有现金或美国国债以保安全的想法非常强烈。这类行为其实与追逐表现的做法毫无二致。要遵守自己的投资战略。坚持分散化战略,每年把资产重新均衡一下,以降低高风险敞口。

4. 不要停止为退休攒钱

在动荡时期,我们往往会只看眼前:当期的帐单、储蓄帐户、今天会发生什么事。不过,我们仍都会希望在某个时候退休,所以这就意味着要坚持为退休攒钱的做法。

员工的401(k)计划仍是一项好的投资工具,就算股市令这样的资产受到了冲击。这类计划让你投资的钱可以递延纳税,而且正如刚刚所说的,很多公司也会提供一部分资金。

不要忽视对帐单(我们很多人都是这样),好好看看,确保你的资产是分散而均衡的。如果忽视存款或是中断储蓄,在你打算退休到海边度假时它们就会回来在你周围“阴魂不散”。

5. 不要忽视常识

最近令人心碎的事大部分源于对常识的忽视。骗子承诺过于丰厚的回报诓骗了很多投资者。有些人认为房市和股市是只赚不赔的买卖。有些人则入不敷出。

个人理财归根到底是常识的问题。你必须消除高成本负债,进行预算。你必须为退休攒钱。你还要确保自己拥有一座负担得起、又可以享受的房子,而不是把房子看成是一个一夜暴富的法子。

简而言之,要谨慎、攒钱、明智地投资。回归这些基本点将帮助我们所有的人重建投资组合,迎接更美好的生活。

Dave Kansas
华尔街日报

山影響家宅吉凶

  • 古書上所說的吉祥平穩,群山圍繞的“四祥獸”格局。



提到風水,許人很都有購買產品及注重室內佈局的刻板印象,忽略了外在格局的重性。實際上,外在的環境如山、水、建築物及馬路更是取決風水好壞的關鍵因素。

這一期,們就來深入的探討存在於我們住家附近的山,從而瞭解風水裡其中一個重要的理論—“四祥獸格局”。

所謂“靜者為陰,動者為陽”,山是靜止不動的,所以本性屬陰。但其實外表靜止不動的山巒內有“ 氣”的存在,山脈連綿而行時裡面的“氣”也會跟著緩緩流動,這就是古書內指的“山本屬陰,動則為陽”的理論,因此山的實質形態是“陰中負陽;陽中帶陰”的 吉祥本質。此外,山也有保護家宅免受各種煞氣侵擾的作用,所以山在家宅的吉凶上起著相當大的影響。

由於不是每家每戶都能夠看見山,通常在風水上我們都會把周圍的建築物當成山。雖說人造之物無法產生氣,但是建築物可以成為我們的屏障,起著為我們擋煞的作用。

風水講究四祥獸格局

風水之法講究“四祥獸”的安穩格局,即是左青龍、右虎、朱雀與後玄武,此外也更要求玄武垂頭、朱雀翔舞、青龍婉約及白虎馴服的吉祥模式。這就是風水學上常要求的典型藏風聚氣寶地,四方的祥獸有如屏障般守護位居中央的家宅,防止風煞侵擾才是真正平穩的格局。

然而所謂的“四祥獸”真的是要去尋找神獸來守護我們的家宅嗎?其實不然,所謂的“四祥獸”其實 只是比喻的手法,聰明的古人為了讓後代能夠尋覓安穩的地方居住便利用“喝形法”,以神獸來比喻房子前後左右的“山”,讓後人能夠遵循外形來尋找安穩地勢居 住,此舉實為智慧的體現,並不涉及膚淺的迷信觀。

由於少數現代風水師曲解了四祥獸的真意,並錯誤的教導人們若家宅無靠山就在後方擺放玄武(烏 龜)擺設品、房子左右若沒有建築就擺放青龍或白虎模型,前門以朱雀鳳凰的擺設作為案山。敢問大家一個比手掌大點的玄武(烏龜)模型可以和真山相比嗎?答案 非常明顯,我們不能盲目的單以字面來理解事實。所謂“儘信書不如無書”,沒有實踐而胡亂斷章取義會讓我們在追求好風水的當而成為他人賺錢的好顧客!

瞭解四祥獸的真意後,下來就為大家仔細闡述四祥獸的真正概念及實際例子:

玄武護持:穩重靠山

玄武乃傳說上古時期守護北方龜蛇同體的神獸,常用以代表平安、穩定。古人相信家宅背後有靠山且 格局貌似玄武垂頭為吉祥安穩的格局。所謂“背有靠山,有恃無恐”,但必須留意並不是所有在背後的山都是好的靠山。在巒頭法中,脈身出現長而陡峭且沒有頓跌 的山坡,外形奔騰的龍稱為“急龍”,不適宜成為靠山;真正的靠山必須是有緩衝、不陡斜、如烏龜垂頭般。前期土崩的淡江國際山莊背靠的就是所謂的急龍,在大 雨不斷沖刷下,沒有頓跌緩衝怎麼能抵擋排山倒海而來的土石流呢?因此好的靠山是非常重要的。

青龍白虎:護砂環抱

所謂砂其實是由大小不一的山丘組成,其外形較矮能輕易看清全貌,且左右佈 如同雙手保護穴位般稱為護砂。宅的左右方若能看到山坡或山丘的話,在格局上屬大吉。護砂的作用在於保護中央的穴位不受風煞滋擾,使好的氣場在穴前聚集盤 旋。由於受到環境的局限,一般上我們都把兩旁的鄰居或建築物當作青龍白虎砂,只要不是兩幫無依的馬路或過於開放的空間都被視為安穩格局。

然而怎樣才算“青龍委婉,白虎馴服”呢?其實委婉馴服都在形容左右的山及建築物(青龍白虎)必 須安靜穩定,不可過高才可守護位居中央的居處。另一方面,由於古代處於父系社會,陽宅佈局上通常都會將代表男性的青龍方略高於代表女性的白虎方,以達到男 性主掌家中大權的格局,當然左右一樣高的話較為符合現代的社會觀念。

朱雀翔舞:守護前方

朱雀方指的就是房子前面的明堂,正前方能看到山的話將是完美的格局,這山也稱之為案山及朝山,期作用在於將良好的氣場鎖在房子前方,使其盤旋聚而不散。所謂朱雀要翔舞的意思是指在遠距離觀看時山巒連綿有如鳳凰展翅般飛翔舞動,將好的氣藏引動並藏於堂前。

風水雲“一代朝山一代貴,代代朝山出宰相”,從表面上看來朝山多就有如文武百官共聚前方向中央穴位朝拜,由此可知風水上是何等注重朝山的重要性。

選購房宅時須考慮四祥獸

上述就是風水外格局要求中最理想也是最基本的格局,但是部份富人將豪宅建在山上或背山面海,那 就一定好嗎?其實如上所述,山上的家宅不一定好,需判斷是否處於“孤峰獨聳”、“凹風掃穴”的格局。然而背山面海除了要留意靠山外,還需要左右護砂及視所 面向的大海有無彼岸,彼岸起著案山及朝般藏風聚氣的作用。若面對的是汪洋大海則會因堂前氣場不聚而無法達到真正好風水的效果。

當真正瞭解風水四祥獸格局,在選擇家宅的時候就可利用所學所知為自己選擇適合好的房子。此外,瞭解風水學理一來能防止被騙二來又能為家人朋友觀察基本的外在風水,實為一舉兩得。


  • 現代住宅區稠密,建築物及鄰居也可充當保護家宅的“四祥獸”。



  • “玄武”靠山必須必須要如烏龜背殼般有頓跌緩衝,才能稱為家宅的依靠。



  • 山巒連綿不斷,有如朱雀(鳳凰)展翅飛翔將氣場留住。



星洲日報/投資致富