冯时能
某翁逝世，留下财富100万令吉。未立遗嘱，儿女10人争夺遗产。
假如由1人独得，他得到100万令吉。
假如由5人均分，每人得到20万令吉。
假如由10人均分，每人得到10万令吉。
100 万令吉财产，数目保持不变。分享的人越多，所得数目越少。
同样的情况，一家公司的盈利保持不变，股票数目越多，每股所分得的盈利、股息和资产就越少。
有了这个概念，你就会对公司发红股、拆细面值和股票回购对股票价值的影响，一目了然。
我常常劝告投资者，养成“反向”思维的习惯。在股价暴跌（例如在次贷金融海啸期间）买进，但大部分投资者都做不到，不敢买进。是因为他们不了解股票的价值，以当时的股价，无法判断股票到底是便宜还是昂贵。
如果他们了解股票的价值的话，他们会发现股价暴跌后，股票的价值已被严重低估，是一个难得的投资机会。这样，他们就有胆识买进，并在较后大赚特赚。
面值小股票多
了解股票价值是“做功课”的终极目的。
股票价值与公司的股票数目，息息相关。而红股、拆细和股票回购，影响股票数目。所以，要了解股票的价值必须对红股、拆细和回购，有深入的了解。
公司的股票数目，跟每股的面值息息相关。通常是面值越小，股票越多。
为了方便说明，我把红股、拆细和回购对股票价值的影响，以确实的数字说明。
假设一家上市公司在发红股、拆细和回购前的资本为6000万令吉，每股面值为1令吉，故股票总数为6000万股。此公司每年净赚 3000万令吉，等于每股净利为50仙（计算方法：RM30÷60m股=RM0.50），每股净有形资产价值为6令吉。股价为8令吉。
该公司以一股送一股发红股后，股票数目增至1亿2000万股，但公司的盈利还是3000万令吉，每股净利由50仙降至25仙，股息由原来的20仙降至10 仙，每股净有形资产价值由6令吉降至3令吉，股价也由8令吉调整至4令吉。
本益比没改变
假如你拥有1000股，发红股后增至2000股，但无论是股价，每股净利、每股股息或每股净有形资产价值，也相应减半。所以，你手中的财富，跟发红股前没有两样。
更明显的是，本益比保持不变。
这说明了发红股并没有增加股票的价值，也没有增加你的财富。
故发红股不能制造财富。
股票拆细 财富不增
同样的情形，在股票面值由1令吉拆细为10仙之后，你原本拥有1000股的，现在变成拥有1万股，你沾沾自喜，以为自己 “发”了。实际上你的财富并没有增加。
由于股票数目增加了十倍，由6000万股增至6亿股，但每年盈利保持不变，故股价、每股净利、股息、资产也相应的减少十倍。1万股的市值还是8000令吉（RM0.80×10,000=RM8,000），本益比十六倍也原封不动。
这说明了，股票拆细并没有增加股票的价值，因为拆细不能创造财富。
其实，股票拆细就是发红股，原来面值1令吉的股票，拆细为10仙，原本的 1股，现在变为10股，这其实跟以1股送9股的比例发红股没有两样。
惟一的区别是，发红股后面值保持1令吉，股票数目增至6亿股，故实收资本为6亿令吉。
假如是将面值由1令吉拆细为10仙的话，股票数目增至6亿股，故实收资本仍为6000万令吉。
发红股使实收资本增加十倍至6亿令吉，而拆细后实收资本仍为6000万令吉。表面上看起来股票的价值也增加了十倍，实际上没有。
理由是每股的盈利、股息、资产，是以股票的数目计算出来，与面值无关。实收资本6亿令吉（面值1令吉）和实收资本6000万令吉（面值10仙），股票数目同为6亿股。
美国没红股
实际上，美国的股票多数是没有面值的，因为每股的价值是以股票数目计算出来，与面值无关，故面值不重要，重要的是股数，这种情形就好像本文开始时的例子，无论是1人独得或是10人均分，遗产的价值都是100万令吉。遗产的价值并不随人数而增减。美国根本没人说“红股”，只有“拆细”。
所以，红股=拆细。两者都没有增加股票的价值。
股票回购就不同了。
请看附表“回购后”栏。一家公司每年最多可以回购总股数的10%，每年都可以进行。
回购后的股票有三种处理方式：
⑴ 把股票保留在公司里，叫Treasury Shares，好价时可以卖掉，盈利归公司，在计算每股净利时，需扣除回购股。
⑵ 把股票当股息分发给股东。
⑶ 从资本中勾销回购股。请看附表。此公司原本拥有6000万股，回购及加以勾销后，减至5400万股。股价、每股净利、股息、资产也相应的增加10%。
红股和拆细是增加股票数目，但没有增加股票的价值；回购是减少股票数目，目的在维持股价的稳定，因为股价跌得太低，向银行借钱买股的股东，其股票可能会被逼仓卖掉。另一方面，股票价值被严重低估，也可能引发敌意收购，使大股东失去控制权。
导致资金外流
投资者一定要知道：公司的钱是属于你的，利用公司的现金去回购股票，就是用你的钱去买股票，回购后把股票当股息分发给你，其实是把你的钱由公司的钱柜转到你的口袋里，跟发股息没有两样。
从公司的角度看，回购股票导致资金外流，用以发展业务的资金减少了，对公司不利。但是，公司如果资金过剩，而又没有扩展的必要（可能是产能未用尽），则利用现金回购股票，不失为充分利用资源的良策。
股票回购反映公司对前途的信心以及财务稳健，是好股的特征。
走正道创财富
企业惟有盈利不断上升，才能增加股票的价值，发红股、股票拆细和回购，都与公司的盈利无关。所以都无助于提高股票的价值。
红股、拆细和回购，都是在玩股票的把戏，跟公司的业务无关，投资者无需过分重视。
只有公司的盈利上升，股票价值才会上升。所以，与其把时间和精力化在红股、拆细、回购和猜测股价动向等与股票价值无关的事项上，倒不如化在研究公司的基本面上——公司业务有前途吗？盈利会上升吗？什么因素会影响公司的盈利？公司财务健全吗？能继续派发股息吗？董事有诚信吗？这些才是投资者应该关注的课题。
红股、拆细、回购、股价变动，与基本面无关，无需过分重视。倾全力研究公司基本面， 才是股票投资正道。
走正道，才有可能创富
南洋商报
Saturday, February 27, 2010
深入了解公司价值 财务报表解读
就像学生考试前须温习功课一样，投资者在作出任何决定之前也应该做好事前功课。
虽然里头的数据令人抓狂，但财务报表（financial statements）就像是一个宝藏充满了有用的资源，可让投资者深入了解一家公司的价值、财务状况，并且预测未来的发展。
上期我们大致谈到了财务报表的重要性和基本结构，本期就让我们更深入的去分析财务报表中的内容。
资产负债表（Balance Sheet）
资产负债表反映了公司的资产、负债，以及资产净值。以数学方程式来呈现则是：
资产 = 负债 +资产净值
资产分为流动资产（current assets）和固定资产（non-current assets）。
通常在12个月内会被耗尽的资产被称为流动资产。
警惕现金储备
其中主要还分成了现金、存货和应收帐款（accounts receivables）。
现金的数量表示公司在应付困难和未来发展需求的能力。
虽然持续增长的现金储备代表公司的表现强劲，但投资者应对太多的现金储备有所警戒，因为这可能表示公司在投资或发展方面有所限制，或公司领导层不擅长计划如何应用这些现金储备等，应在投资前弄清楚是否有问题。
注意存货周转
另外也要注意公司的存货周转，也就是商家能在多短时间内从供应商处获得商品然后再转到消费者手上。
销售速度比存货速度还慢的话表示有关公司的周转能力可能不足。
至于应收帐款是指还未收到的欠账。所拖欠的款项应该越快收回越好，因为拖欠越久反而会影响周转。
固定资产则是流动资产以外的任何有形资产，如土地、产业、机器，设备等。
投资者无需太过专注于这点，因为这些资产对偿还资产负债表里所列出的债务并无多大帮助。
流动负债与长期负债
负债则分为流动负债（current liabilities）和长期负债（non-current liabilities）。
流动负债是一年内须还清的债务，例如拖欠供应商的款项。长期负债则须超过一年来还清，例如银行融资和证券持有人所投资的金钱。
负债减少是令人鼓舞的，更好的是有关公司的资产比债务还多。如果情况是相反的话，投资者则要小心了。
从速动比率（quick ratio/ acid test ratio）可看出有关公司是否有足够的现金和流动资产以还清短期债务，其计算方式如下：
如果答案是1或者更大，表示该公司有能力偿还其短期债务。
资产净值也称作股东权益（shareholder’s equity），因为净资产就是股东所投资的金钱。
资产净值 = 资产总额 – 负债总额
留意隐瞒债务
净资产还分成实收资本和进行再投资的钱。通过股东购买首发股票而筹的钱被称为实收资本。
有些公司不会将所有盈利作为股息分发给股东，反之会进行再投资。投资者应该注意有关公司利用净资产的方法是否符合本身的要求，然后才作出选择。
最后要提醒大家的是，虽说资产负债表包含了有关公司的资产和负债，但并不是所有资产和负债都会被列出来。
一家公司通常都会拥有难以统计的资产，但必须要留意的是公司往往会隐瞒某些债务，以降低资产负债表里的负债水平。下期我们将继续了解财务报表中其余两个重要部分：损益表和现金流量表，以及更有效解读财务报表的贴士。
南洋商报
虽然里头的数据令人抓狂，但财务报表（financial statements）就像是一个宝藏充满了有用的资源，可让投资者深入了解一家公司的价值、财务状况，并且预测未来的发展。
上期我们大致谈到了财务报表的重要性和基本结构，本期就让我们更深入的去分析财务报表中的内容。
资产负债表（Balance Sheet）
资产负债表反映了公司的资产、负债，以及资产净值。以数学方程式来呈现则是：
资产 = 负债 +资产净值
资产分为流动资产（current assets）和固定资产（non-current assets）。
通常在12个月内会被耗尽的资产被称为流动资产。
警惕现金储备
其中主要还分成了现金、存货和应收帐款（accounts receivables）。
现金的数量表示公司在应付困难和未来发展需求的能力。
虽然持续增长的现金储备代表公司的表现强劲，但投资者应对太多的现金储备有所警戒，因为这可能表示公司在投资或发展方面有所限制，或公司领导层不擅长计划如何应用这些现金储备等，应在投资前弄清楚是否有问题。
注意存货周转
另外也要注意公司的存货周转，也就是商家能在多短时间内从供应商处获得商品然后再转到消费者手上。
销售速度比存货速度还慢的话表示有关公司的周转能力可能不足。
至于应收帐款是指还未收到的欠账。所拖欠的款项应该越快收回越好，因为拖欠越久反而会影响周转。
固定资产则是流动资产以外的任何有形资产，如土地、产业、机器，设备等。
投资者无需太过专注于这点，因为这些资产对偿还资产负债表里所列出的债务并无多大帮助。
流动负债与长期负债
负债则分为流动负债（current liabilities）和长期负债（non-current liabilities）。
流动负债是一年内须还清的债务，例如拖欠供应商的款项。长期负债则须超过一年来还清，例如银行融资和证券持有人所投资的金钱。
负债减少是令人鼓舞的，更好的是有关公司的资产比债务还多。如果情况是相反的话，投资者则要小心了。
从速动比率（quick ratio/ acid test ratio）可看出有关公司是否有足够的现金和流动资产以还清短期债务，其计算方式如下：
如果答案是1或者更大，表示该公司有能力偿还其短期债务。
资产净值也称作股东权益（shareholder’s equity），因为净资产就是股东所投资的金钱。
资产净值 = 资产总额 – 负债总额
留意隐瞒债务
净资产还分成实收资本和进行再投资的钱。通过股东购买首发股票而筹的钱被称为实收资本。
有些公司不会将所有盈利作为股息分发给股东，反之会进行再投资。投资者应该注意有关公司利用净资产的方法是否符合本身的要求，然后才作出选择。
最后要提醒大家的是，虽说资产负债表包含了有关公司的资产和负债，但并不是所有资产和负债都会被列出来。
一家公司通常都会拥有难以统计的资产，但必须要留意的是公司往往会隐瞒某些债务，以降低资产负债表里的负债水平。下期我们将继续了解财务报表中其余两个重要部分：损益表和现金流量表，以及更有效解读财务报表的贴士。
南洋商报
EPF Funds Potentially give Higher Return than your EPF
Over the past five years, Employment Provident Fund (EPF) distributed an average of 5.0% of dividend annually. Average real dividend rate for the past five years was 1.7% after reflecting an average inflation rate of 3.4%. In this article, we explained why EPF distributions are generally lower in nature and how EPF approved funds can be an option for investors who are willing to take higher risk for higher yields.
________________________________________
EPF – LOWER YIELD, SAFE INVESTMENT
In the past five years, the Employment Provident Fund (EPF) has distributed an average dividend rate of 5.0%. The average inflation rate for the past five years is 3.4%. The average real dividend rate for the past five year was 1.7%.
As a national provident fund, the EPF’s primary investment objective is to seek a balance between profitability and prudence. Investments are made only at acceptable levels of risk and to ensure positive real rates of return in the long term. Key considerations in investment decisions include criteria on safety, stability, liquidity, and risk-adjusted returns. In order to meet its investment obligations, the EPF adheres to a disciplined investment procedure and guidelines. The EPF Fund Act 1991 is an act to enact the law relating to provident fund. It includes the monthly compulsory contribution from employers and employees. It also regulates the power and duties of the EPF board and investment panel in handling EPF monies on behalf of their members. All monies belonging to the fund are invested in accordance with the EPF Act 1991.
In order to achieve its objective, the EPF has designed a long-term strategy based on a prudent strategic asset allocation as follow:
Historically, EPF had invested at least 70% into bond markets. As illustrated in Chart 2, EPF invested about 74% into bond market in 2008, with equity investment made up for only about 26%. With EPF’s rather conservative investments – mainly invested into safer asset classes, the return that investors are able to obtain would be lower. EPF is considered as risk-free investment. Under the EPF Act 1991, EPF is required to pay at least a minimum interest payment of 2.5% per year to its member. Hence, regardless of any economic circumstance, EPF members are eligible for at least 2.5% dividend payment per year. For conservative investors, leaving your monies in EPF accounts might be a good option.
For aggressive investors who are willing to take higher risk, investing into EPF approved funds can be a good option for potentially higher return.
EPF FUNDS PERFORMANCE – HIGHER RISK, HIGHER RETURN
Table 2: Selected EPF Funds Performance
Table 2 illustrated the annualised return for selected EPF approved equity and balanced funds. OSK-UOB Smart Treasure Fund and Kenanga Growth Fund are funds mainly invest into Malaysia equity market, while OSK-UOB Emerging Opportunity Unit Trust is Malaysia equity fund which focuses on small to medium companies. OSK-UOB Growth And Income Focus Trust and OSK-UOB Smart Balanced Fund are balanced funds which invest into Malaysia equity and bond markets.
For 5-year annualised return, all funds recorded annualised return of above 10%, higher than the average dividend distribution of 5% for the past five years. During a market bull-run, which happened in 2009 (Referring to 1-year performance comparison), Malaysia equity funds were able to deliver return of above 20%. Malaysia balanced funds delivered returns ranging from 13.6% to 22.1% within the same period.
However, investors should take note that investing into equity or balanced unit trusts involves high volatility. Annualised volatility for the five funds was ranging from 12.0% to 25.4%. Higher volatility reflected higher risk exposure. In 2008 (Referring to 2-year performance comparison), when Malaysia equity market collapsed (with FBMKLCI contracted by 39.3%), except for Kenanga Growth Fund which registered an annualised return of 0.2%, the four other funds were posting negative annualised return ranging from -3.7% to -8.3%.
UNIT TRUST INVESTMENT VIA EPF
EPF members are eligible to withdraw their EPF savings to make their own investment for potentially higher returns. Effective from 1 February 2008, EPF members are able to withdraw a maximum of 20% of their credit in excess of Basic Savings in Account 1 to invest into the approved fund managers. The required Basis Savings in Account 1 is a compulsory minimum savings available in Account 1. EPF members at different age profiles are required to have various minimum savings deposited in their Account 1 as follow:
For example, a 30-year old EPF member who has RM30,000 in his EPF account. The excess of Basic Savings in Account 1 would be RM12,000. The allowable withdrawal for member’s investment will be (RM12,000 * 20%) RM2,400. The minimum amount of savings that can be withdrawn is RM1,000 and can be made at intervals of three months from the last transfer, subject to the availability of the Basic Savings requirement in Account 1.
________________________________________
EPF – LOWER YIELD, SAFE INVESTMENT
In the past five years, the Employment Provident Fund (EPF) has distributed an average dividend rate of 5.0%. The average inflation rate for the past five years is 3.4%. The average real dividend rate for the past five year was 1.7%.
As a national provident fund, the EPF’s primary investment objective is to seek a balance between profitability and prudence. Investments are made only at acceptable levels of risk and to ensure positive real rates of return in the long term. Key considerations in investment decisions include criteria on safety, stability, liquidity, and risk-adjusted returns. In order to meet its investment obligations, the EPF adheres to a disciplined investment procedure and guidelines. The EPF Fund Act 1991 is an act to enact the law relating to provident fund. It includes the monthly compulsory contribution from employers and employees. It also regulates the power and duties of the EPF board and investment panel in handling EPF monies on behalf of their members. All monies belonging to the fund are invested in accordance with the EPF Act 1991.
In order to achieve its objective, the EPF has designed a long-term strategy based on a prudent strategic asset allocation as follow:
| Asset Class | Strategic Asset Allocation (%) | Variation (%) |
| Malaysian Government Securities | 25 | 15 to 35 |
| Loans & Bonds | 25 | 15 to 35 |
| Money Market Instruments | 15 | 5 to 25 |
| Equities | 20 | 10 to 30 |
| Property | 5 | 0 to 10 |
| Source: EPF, iFAST Compilations | ||
Historically, EPF had invested at least 70% into bond markets. As illustrated in Chart 2, EPF invested about 74% into bond market in 2008, with equity investment made up for only about 26%. With EPF’s rather conservative investments – mainly invested into safer asset classes, the return that investors are able to obtain would be lower. EPF is considered as risk-free investment. Under the EPF Act 1991, EPF is required to pay at least a minimum interest payment of 2.5% per year to its member. Hence, regardless of any economic circumstance, EPF members are eligible for at least 2.5% dividend payment per year. For conservative investors, leaving your monies in EPF accounts might be a good option.
For aggressive investors who are willing to take higher risk, investing into EPF approved funds can be a good option for potentially higher return.
EPF FUNDS PERFORMANCE – HIGHER RISK, HIGHER RETURN
Table 2: Selected EPF Funds Performance
| Annualised Return (%) | 1-year | 2-year | 3-year | 4-year | 5-year | Annualised Volatility |
| 32.8 | -5.7 | 21.7 | 22.0 | 16.6 | 25.4 | |
| 33.3 | 0.2 | 11.5 | 14.0 | 11.3 | 12.0 | |
| 23.6 | -8.3 | 14.1 | 17.5 | 10.4 | 17.6 | |
| 13.6 | -4.7 | 13.1 | 21.4 | NA | 14.5 | |
| 22.1 | -3.7 | 11.0 | 19.9 | 15.0 | 12.8 |
Table 2 illustrated the annualised return for selected EPF approved equity and balanced funds. OSK-UOB Smart Treasure Fund and Kenanga Growth Fund are funds mainly invest into Malaysia equity market, while OSK-UOB Emerging Opportunity Unit Trust is Malaysia equity fund which focuses on small to medium companies. OSK-UOB Growth And Income Focus Trust and OSK-UOB Smart Balanced Fund are balanced funds which invest into Malaysia equity and bond markets.
For 5-year annualised return, all funds recorded annualised return of above 10%, higher than the average dividend distribution of 5% for the past five years. During a market bull-run, which happened in 2009 (Referring to 1-year performance comparison), Malaysia equity funds were able to deliver return of above 20%. Malaysia balanced funds delivered returns ranging from 13.6% to 22.1% within the same period.
However, investors should take note that investing into equity or balanced unit trusts involves high volatility. Annualised volatility for the five funds was ranging from 12.0% to 25.4%. Higher volatility reflected higher risk exposure. In 2008 (Referring to 2-year performance comparison), when Malaysia equity market collapsed (with FBMKLCI contracted by 39.3%), except for Kenanga Growth Fund which registered an annualised return of 0.2%, the four other funds were posting negative annualised return ranging from -3.7% to -8.3%.
UNIT TRUST INVESTMENT VIA EPF
EPF members are eligible to withdraw their EPF savings to make their own investment for potentially higher returns. Effective from 1 February 2008, EPF members are able to withdraw a maximum of 20% of their credit in excess of Basic Savings in Account 1 to invest into the approved fund managers. The required Basis Savings in Account 1 is a compulsory minimum savings available in Account 1. EPF members at different age profiles are required to have various minimum savings deposited in their Account 1 as follow:
| Age
| Basic Savings
| Age
| Basic Saving
|
| 18 | 1,000 | 37 | 34,000 |
| 19 | 2,000 | 38 | 37,000 |
| 20 | 3,000 | 39 | 41,000 |
| 21 | 4,000 | 40 | 44,000 |
| 22 | 5,000 | 41 | 48,000 |
| 23 | 7,000 | 42 | 51,000 |
| 24 | 8,000 | 43 | 55,000 |
| 25 | 9,000 | 44 | 59,000 |
| 26 | 11,000 | 45 | 64,000 |
| 27 | 12,000 | 46 | 68,000 |
| 28 | 14,000 | 47 | 73,000 |
| 29 | 16,000 | 48 | 78,000 |
| 30 | 18,000 | 49 | 84,000 |
| 31 | 20,000 | 50 | 90,000 |
| 32 | 22,000 | 51 | 96,000 |
| 33 | 24,000 | 52 | 102,000 |
| 34 | 26,000 | 53 | 109,000 |
| 35 | 29,000 | 54 | 116,000 |
| 36 | 32,000 | 55 | 120,000 |
| Source: EPF, iFAST Compilations | |||
For example, a 30-year old EPF member who has RM30,000 in his EPF account. The excess of Basic Savings in Account 1 would be RM12,000. The allowable withdrawal for member’s investment will be (RM12,000 * 20%) RM2,400. The minimum amount of savings that can be withdrawn is RM1,000 and can be made at intervals of three months from the last transfer, subject to the availability of the Basic Savings requirement in Account 1.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)