Tuesday, November 29, 2011

区别就在现金流●冷眼


老黄和老何有许多共同点:两人都是在大学毕业后,找了一份优差,打拼了十多年,都当上了主管。
经过了十多年的储蓄,两人的银行户口,都有20万令吉的定期存款。

在开始进入中年时,他们都有共同的愿望,希望通过投资使手头的20万令吉,如雪球般越滚越大,使他们有足够的财力,将一对儿女送进外国名牌大学,同时在退休后,有足够的老本,过着优质的晚年生活。
经过了深思熟虑之后,两人选择了自己的道路:老黄决定自己创业;老何却选择留在职场,继续打工,但积极进行股票投资。


老黄租了一间店铺,开了一间礼品店,凡事亲力亲为,只请了三名员工负责打理店面生意和送货。
除了做门市之外,作为一名电脑科大学毕业生,他开启了网上购物的生意模式,密切注意礼品市场的“时尚”,想出新的点子,迎合顾客的需求,因此生意火红,第一年就赚回了20万令吉的投资。
这20万令吉的现金,对老黄来说,非常的重要,要知道他是放弃了一份不错的职业,下海创业,他已经没有了稳定的收入。

生活费有着落
有了这20万令吉,不但生活费有了着落,更重要的是他有足够的资金去扩展业务,假以时日,他的公司有希望申请在创业版上市。
反观选择保持现有职业的老何,希望通过股票投资来增加他的财富,表现又如何?
老何以20万令吉,买进一批股票,适逢股市牛皮靠稳,不起也不落,他的投资,没有什么斩获,但 也没有什么损失,经过了一年,他在股价上得个不赚不亏,他所得到的,是股息,由于他的买进价格,属于中等,所以他的周息率(D∕Y)也与整个市场的周息率 不相上下,约为3%。他每年收到6600令吉的股息,回酬与定期存款的利息没有两样。

股票 理想投资管道
老黄选择自己创业;老何选择带职投资,两者有什么区别?
最大的区别就是现金流(cash flow)。老黄独自拥有他的公司,所以,所赚到的20万令吉,全部归他所有,他有应用这笔资金的绝对权利。他可以从中抽出部分作为生活费,也可以全部投资在公司,以扩大业务。总之,他可以自由应用这20万令吉现金。老何购买股票,就是购买公司的股份,问题是他所占的股份数额,微不足道,根本没资格过问公司的运作。公司是赚了不少钱,但大股东决定只派发微不足道的股息。

藉投资增财富
老何所收到的股息,只有区区的6600令吉,数目太小,根本不能发挥作用。
他惟有希望股市大起,使他的股票价格大涨,以取得更高的回酬,但那不是他所能控制的,因此他对投资,有一份无可奈何的感觉。

假如我们比较老黄和老何的得失的话,很明显的,自己创业应该是一条更好的道路。
问题是像老黄那样,具备自行创业条件,而又一开始就一帆风顺的创业者,毕竟不多。
在现实生活中,绝大多数的人,都没有老黄那样的勇气,辞掉职业,自行创业。
大部份工薪阶级,只好安分守己,做到退休,他们唯一的希望,是藉投资增加财富,股票仍为较为理想的投资管道。

以攻为守获高回酬

实际上,股票和股市,原本就是为没有能力或不懂得创业的人们而存在的。
没有勇气创业的老何,选择股票投资是正确的道路,不过,他必须采取“以攻为守”而不是“以守为攻”的策略,才有可能取得更为合理的回报。
什么是“以攻为守”?就是为自己创造取得更高回酬的有利条件,那就是:
1. 必须坚守价值投资法,通过股票投资于某种事业,以分享事业成长的成果。
2. 必须勤做功课,研究上市公司,彻底了解所投资企业的实况。
3. 必须长期投资。
4. 必须坚守反向投资策略。
5. 永不投机。
具备这五个条件,他就有可能取得更高的投资回报,跟创业的回酬不遑多让。
老何若能对上述这五个条件,身体力行,到退休时,即使不如老黄那么富有,但要达到财务自主,并非难事。
总而言之,如果具备条件,自行创业是最佳选择,人生,毕竟应给自己以做一番事业的机会,才不枉此生。
如果没有这份勇气,也没有足够的条件,投资股票也不失为可行之道,你要股票投资成功,就必须付出心力,为自己创造取胜的有利条件。
毕竟,天下没有免费的午餐。

本周建议研究股项
鹏尼迪(Plenitude,产业股)
资料解读:
⒈ 怎样以电脑寻找资料
① 开电脑,进入www.bursamalaysia.com;
② 点击Listed Companies;
③ 点击Annual Reports;
④ 点击By Company;
⑤ 点击P;
⑥ 在P字头公司找Plenitude Berhad,点击;
⑦ 下载2006和2011年年报,详读。
⒉ 从2006年年报第24页和2011年年报的第4页财务摘要(Financial Highlights),你可以读到该公司由2002至2011年10年的业绩纪录,你会发现,该公司过去10年,盈利年年上升。
⒊ 你可以在2011年第98页起,找到该公司的地库详情,你会发现该公司的土地大部分是在10年前买下的,现在肯定已比账面价值高数倍。(尽量找出账面每方尺价值,跟市价相比,找出地库被低估程度)。
⒋ 在2011年年报第43页的Statements of Financial Position,你可以在Current Assets项下,发现该公司手头拥有3亿3481万令吉的现金,完全没有负债,每股拥有净现金1令吉24仙。
思考重点:该公司现有地库,应该足够10年的发展,该公司将怎样应用手头的3亿3481万令吉现金去收购更大土地,以充实地库呢?
忠言:培养独立思考的能力,养成反向思考的习惯。如果你的想法跟众人一样,你只能取得与众人相同的利润,如果你要取得超越众人的利润,你必须有与众不同的看法。

 
冷眼 股市基本面大师 /南洋商报

诠释女性财力

美国研究专家的调查中发现,很多不幸福的人,是长期担任全职家庭妇女的人。
她们不幸福的原因是因为不自信,不自信的原因是因为不投资自己,不投资自己的原因是钱不是自己挣来的。

一个女人,不论她热爱丈夫,还是热爱孩子,抑或其他,都没错,只是她应该记住一点,那就是别忘了爱自己。

让丈夫幸福,使孩子成长,这是我们的责任,但绝非我们的全部。
女人从来不替自己的未来生活做打算是很危险的事。
白马王子早就绝迹了,而且职场不是一个公平竞争的地方,如果女人完全依赖别人,可能导致个人健康和财富的损失。

我讲的财务独立的意义,并不是想反对做一个懂得依赖的女人。
其实,是独立还是依赖,或者说什么时候该独立,什么时候该依赖,如果没有人告诉你,生活一定会告诉你。

智慧永存
因为,一个女人只有经济上独立了,才会在生活中获得心理上的安宁。
作为女性,我们深深知道女人的年轻美丽会随着岁月流逝而逐渐消失,唯有智慧才是永存的。
女人的智慧,一方面表现为见识,一方面表现为知识。
见识是指能够观察,审时度势,平衡心态,把握机会,能进能退;而知识则是见识的基础,是学习的积累,是一些管理的基本功。

学习财务管理
懂得要投资智慧的女人,一定会懂得投资学习。而女人最应该学的,就是财务管理的知识。
如果我们把赚到的钱,部分投资到学习理财知识、学习理财技巧上,用知识武装头脑,打造从内而外散发智慧的魅力,而不是仅仅用于购买化妆品、服装等外表装扮上。

那么,我们将收获无穷魅力,收获无限的自信和骄傲,收获精神、物质上的双重财富!
无论你是独立的还是依赖的,其实你都是自己的主人,就像每天出门前照镜子一样,每天想想你为提高自己财富管理的能力做了什么了吗?然后你就去做点什么。
日复一日、年复一年,你的聪明就成为你的财富、你孩子的财富、老公和家庭的财富。
 
文:罗凤琴
南洋商报

How to avoid common pitfalls

EVERYONE makes mistakes one time or another. As investors, we need to learn from our investment mistakes by recognising them and making the appropriate adjustments to our investing discipline.

Many people invest without learning adequately about the investment process or the different investment products and without considering what they really want to achieve over the long term. These kind of investors often react negatively to the short-term volatility of the markets, heed the advice of self-proclaimed gurus, enter the markets at an inopportune time, and subsequently end up with a mountain of losses.

The following are some of the common mistakes that investors make that can hurt the performance of their portfolio:

* Not preparing emergency funds before investing

Investing without any allocated emergency funds is like going water rafting without a life jacket. Before venturing out to the markets, investors are advised to set aside at least three to six months of expenses to take care of financial emergencies (such as a job loss) or unexpected cash flow problems. The fundamental purpose of this cash buffer is to provide both fiscal and emotional stability during times of personal economic upheaval.

* Market timing

Although markets may move in cycles, this does not necessarily mean that we can determine when to enter and exit the market at its lows and peaks respectively. Seasoned and successful investors like Warren Buffett do not use market-timing tools because they, more often than not, do not work. Thus, individual investors will save themselves from substantial losses if they stay away from trying to time the market. In fact, given their limited experience in understanding financial markets, individual investors would do better focusing on investing in unit trusts for the long run.

* Procrastination

Investors should not procrastinate when investing because an early start can make a world of difference in the potential returns as a longer time horizon will allow compounding interest to work effectively. Meanwhile, the longer you wait to get started with your investments, the more money you will have to put in to get the same returns as someone who started investing earlier.

* Taking too much or too little risk

As risk and returns go hand-in-hand, the amount of risk you take when investing can determine your potential returns. Nevertheless, there are those who take too much or too little risk. Investors who are high-risk takers often end up as speculators and often make investments without conducting prior research. However, investors who are too conservative may bear the risk of inflation eating into their purchasing power. Instead of merely relying on your risk tolerance to shape your investments, you should also take into consideration your financial goals and time horizon.

* Lack of diversification

Diversification is among the most fundamental principle of investing to a flourishing investment portfolio. Even so, many investors neglect to properly address this step by putting all of their eggs (investment) into one basket (asset). A well-diversified portfolio will adhere to all components of asset allocation - considering risk tolerance, investment capital available, investment time horizon and the current portfolio's asset class weightings.

* Becoming emotional in making investment decisions

Most investors allow emotions - especially greed and fear - to drive their investment decisions. For instance, emotional investors will be tempted to sell an investment when its price falls sharply. As a result of following their emotions and gut instincts, many investors end up "selling at the lows and buying at the highs" of the market. Instead, they should objectively evaluate the reasons for the price decline and see whether they are caused by broader market conditions.

* Lack of research

Investors should do their homework before investing. Successful investing requires on-going time and effort, which includes investors conducting their own investment research. Investors should also take note that past performance of an investment is not an indication of future performance.

* Panicking during bear markets

During major bear markets, it is common to see investors letting emotions get the better of them and in the process they sell off their investments in a panic frenzy. Investors who hold a long-term stance would not be affected by these gyrations of the stock markets. Instead, they might view market weakness as an opportunity to accumulate under-valued blue chip stocks at attractive prices.

Everyone make errors in their investments but what separates the winners from the losers are those who apply what they learn from their mistakes. The key to successful investing is not to avoid risk altogether but to recognise the risks you are taking.

To avoid unpleasant surprises, do your homework. Nothing beats reading the prospectuses and checking the long-term performance of the investments. As American fund manager Ronald W. Roge once said: "People rush into purchases even when they don't understand what they are buying. People do more research when they buy a refrigerator or a VCR than when they invest thousands in (the markets)."

Even millionaires make mistakes (and learn from them).

Benjamin Graham went bankrupt on three separate occasions as an investor. But each time, he documented and studied his failures, and he was eventually able to impart this investment wisdom to countless others, including Warren Buffett, who in turn learned from his own mistakes and failures.

Early in Buffett's career, he mistakenly believed he could save a failing textile mill. After being forced to liquidate its textile operations, Buffett learned to pay up for quality. He turned that failing company into a US$140 billion (RM417.2 billion) business.

Another great example is Pixar's John Lasseter. After he graduated from college, Disney hired him to captain its Jungle Cruise ride at Disneyland. Later, the company gave him a shot at being an animator, and he quickly recognised the ability of new computer technologies to revolutionise animation. However, Disney was so unimpressed with his first feature that Lasseter was fired on the spot. So, he went back to the drawing board.

After fine-tuning his processes, he moved on to the company that would become Pixar, where he has won two Academy Awards and churned out a string of blockbuster hits that include Toy Story, A Bug's Life, and Cars. Ironically, he and partner Steve Jobs later sold Pixar to Disney for US$7.4 billion (RM25.1 billion).

Moral of the story: Always learn from your mistakes.
 
Public Mutual @ Business Times

Bonds attractive asset during uncertain times

INVESTORS seeking regular income should consider investing in fixed-income funds which can provide higher returns than fixed deposits and are ideal for adding diversification to an investment portfolio.

In fact, during times of economic uncertainties such as slower global economic growth, fixed income assets generally tend to perform better than equity assets as bond prices will be well-supported in a low inflationary environment. Moreover, the lower volatility of fixed income returns provides investors with greater stability in their investments over time.

Fixed income funds invest in a portfolio of bonds, debentures and money market instruments. This article highlights one of the most common fixed income fund offered by unit trust companies - bond funds.

Definition of a bond

A bond is a type of security that functions like a loan. Bonds are "I Owe Yous" (IOUs) issued by private companies, municipalities, or government agencies. The money used to subscribe to a bond is lent to the issuer - in other words, the company, municipality, or government agency that issued the bond. In exchange for the use of this money, the issuer promises to repay the amount loaned (also known as the face value of the bond) on a specific maturity date. In addition, the issuer typically promises to make periodic interest or coupon payments over the tenure of the bond.

After a bond is issued to the primary subscribers, it may be traded in the secondary bond market. The price at which a bond trades, however, may fluctuate as bond prices move inversely to changes in interest rates. When interest rates fall, a bond's value usually rises thereby generating a capital gain for the bond. Alternatively, when interest rates rise, a bond's value usually falls thereby resulting in a capital loss on the bond.

Bond funds

Bond funds invest in a portfolio of bonds with various maturities, issued by federal, provincial, and municipal governments as well as major corporations. The aim of a bond fund is to provide investors with income and/or capital gains from a diversified portfolio of bonds. An investor can compute the return on his bond fund by monitoring the movement in the fund's net asset value (NAV).

One of the biggest advantages of bond funds is the diversification that can be obtained with a small pool of investible funds. Instead of purchasing an individual bond, which can be rather costly, investing in a bond fund allows an investor exposure to several bonds from a variety of issuers with varying interest rates and different maturities.

Unlike an individual bond, a bond fund does not give a fixed rate of interest. The distribution paid by a bond fund fluctuates depends on the income generated from its portfolio of bonds. A bond fund generates income from the interest or coupon received and the capital gain, if any, resulting from interest rate changes. One of the tasks of the fund manager is to capitalise on the changing interest rate environment. To optimise returns, a fund manager will position the bond portfolio by holding bonds with longer maturities during period of declining interest rates and switch to shorter maturity bonds when interest rates are rising.

A bond fund also does not have a fixed maturity. However, a bond fund has an average portfolio maturity, which refers to the average maturity dates of all the bonds' in its portfolio. In general, the longer the fund's average portfolio maturity, the more sensitive its NAV will be to changes in interest rates. Nevertheless, bond funds that have longer average portfolio maturities tend to offer higher yields to compensate investors for the higher interest rate risk.

Risk versus reward

Like all unit trust funds, investing in bond funds involves investment risk, including the possible loss of principal. Nevertheless, when you make an informed decision to assume some risks, you also create the opportunity for reward. Investing in bond funds usually entails less risk and more moderate returns as compared to investing in equity funds. However, the expected returns for bond funds are higher than the expected returns for money market funds or fixed deposits.

Investments in bond funds are subject to interest rate risk and credit risk.

Interest rate risk

As explained earlier, bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. In addition, prices of bonds with longer maturities are more sensitive to changes in interest rates compared to shorter maturity bonds. For example, a decline in interest rates will cause a larger price increase for a 10-year bond than for an equivalent 5-year bond. However, while longer-term bonds tend to fluctuate in value more than shorter-term bonds, they also tend to have higher yields to compensate for the higher risk.

Credit risk

Credit risk refers to the bond issuer's ability to pay interest and to repay its debt. If a bond issuer is unable to repay principal or interest on time, the bond is said to be in default. A decline in an issuer's credit rating, or creditworthiness, can cause the NAV of a bond fund with exposure to such bonds to decline. The credit risk of bonds are evaluated by independent rating services, such as RAM Rating Services, Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's, which publish the bonds' credit rating periodically.

Public Mutual @Business Times

Investing offshore for added diversification

DIVERSIFICATION is an investment principle that seeks to reduce risks by investing in a wide range of investments and asset classes.

In this article, we show how unit trust investors can diversify their investments with offshore equity funds as part of their portfolios.

The principle of diversification is not to put all your eggs in one basket. In investment terms, this refers to a method of reducing risk through spreading your investments across several markets, sectors or asset classes.

Offshore investing is an effective strategy for investors to protect their portfolios from the potential downside of a single market as well as a means to enhance their potential returns.

Diversifying into foreign equities can help to reduce portfolio risk because different markets and economies move in different cycles.

Therefore, by investing in various markets instead of a single market, investors can reduce the impact of country- or region-specific risks.

This is particularly true in the case of regional markets which comprise a spectrum of fast growing emerging countries and developed countries.

Benefits of investing in offshore markets

The main benefit of investing in offshore markets is that investors will be able to capitalise on the growth potential of offshore markets.

In addition, investors will have access to a wider universe of quality companies to invest in. These companies range from well-established regional companies which have strong market shares in their respective markets as well as emerging companies which have strong growth potential.

Due to the comparatively large market capitalisations of many internationally listed companies, investing in offshore markets also enables investors to benefit from higher levels of liquidity when trading in securities.

Given that stock market cycles of different markets are generally volatile and unpredictable, unit trust investors are advised to diversify across a number of markets which offer a wide universe of stocks.

The full benefits of diversification are achieved when the movements of different markets are not perfectly correlated with one another.

However, before considering the type of offshore funds to invest in, unit trust investors should determine their appropriate asset allocation based on their respective risk profiles, investment objectives and financial needs.

Be aware of the risks

Investors who venture into offshore funds should be aware of the various risks which their investment may be exposed to. These risks include the following:

* Market risks

The purchase of equities represents a risk since the prices of stocks underlying the NAV of the fund fluctuate in response to many factors, such as the activities of individual companies and general market or economic conditions.

* Liquidity risk

Liquidity risk is defined as the ease with which a security can be sold at or near its fair value depending on the volume traded on the market. If a unit trust fund has a large portfolio of securities that are less liquid or difficult to sell, the securities may be sold at a discount to its fair value, hence affecting the value of the unit trust fund.

* Currency risk

Where a percentage of the value of a fund is invested in foreign currency or assets denominated in foreign currency, the value may be exposed to currency fluctuation risks.

Fluctuations in foreign exchange rates will affect the value of the fund's foreign investments upon conversion to local currency and subsequently impact the value of the unitholders' investments.

* Country risk

Overseas investment of the fund may be affected by changes in the political and economic conditions of the country in which investments are made. Such political and economic factors may influence the growth and development of business enterprises and impact the stock prices of listed companies.

Offshore funds help to diversify your portfolio.

In general, a diversified investment portfolio comprising investments in local and regional markets can achieve potentially higher returns than a portfolio that is concentrated in a single market. This is because markets do not move together due to differences in liquidity conditions, economic structure and corporate earnings prospects.

A well-managed diversified portfolio comprising local and regional equities can also lead to enhanced returns as markets with stronger growth prospects are overweighted and markets with slower growth potential are underweighted.

Conclusion

Diversification into offshore markets provides the opportunity to participate in the long-term growth prospects of regional markets.

However, it is imperative that you understand the risks involved before you spread your investments internationally.

Investing for the long term and applying ringgit-cost averaging for your investments may help investors to mitigate some of the risks of investing in offshore markets.

This article is contributed by Public Mutual Berhad @ Business Time