Sunday, November 08, 2009

Understanding capital terms Capital Protected vs Capital Guaranteed

There is always an element of risk where investing is concerned. It is just a matter of whether people take the time to read the fine print and understand the risks they are exposed to when they invest.

Most investors in financial products would have come across the terms “capital guaranteed fund” and “capital protected fund”, but whether they understand these terms well is another matter, even if these terms are explained in the prospectus.

Basically, a capital guaranteed fund is a fund where the investor’s principal is fully protected. The fund usually invests most of the money in low-risk instruments such as government bonds, with only a small amount in riskier assets. Consequently, the returns are lower.

In a capital protected fund, the protection may involve a variety of instruments, the performance of which will determine whether investors retain, lose some or all of the principal amount invested.

In many instances, capital protected products have been sold to investors, with the impression – perhaps unintentionally – that they will not lose the principal sum at maturity.

However, the fine print will inform the investor on how the banks or other financial institutions intend to protect the sum invested. In the years before the global financial crisis, this usually involve securities known as options, swaps or collateralised debt obligations (CDOs).

Unfortunately, many investors, including seasoned ones, do not understand the risks involved when such assets are used to securitise their investments.

There are those who cannot even differentiate between capital guaranteed and capital protected.

We now know that CDOs, especially those with asset-backed securities linked to subprime mortgages, were among the chief culprits in the collapse of the US financial system.

The stark reminder of what can happen when people invest their money with only half an understanding of the risks involved, hit closer to home when the financial crisis peaked more than a year ago with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc, which also saw the near collapse of insurer American International Group Inc.

Among those affected were investors in Hong Kong and Singapore, who invested in the Lehman minibonds, which were first issued in 2002. Investors of Singapore-based DBS Group Holdings Ltd’s “high notes” as well as Merrill Lynch & Co’s “jubilee notes” were also affected.

These people invested in what is known as structured deposits or structured notes, which were capital protected not capital guaranteed.

Anecdotal evidence gleaned from news reports from last year show that often these investors do not understand what they were investing in or have been misled into believing that they had invested in risk-free products.

Most of them, whose demonstrations outside the banks were captured on television, saw a significant part of their life’s savings evaporate in the wake of the financial crisis.

One consequence of the massive losses incurred by investors last year was the banning of the term “capital protected” by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

In a statement in early September, MAS said the ban on the term would apply to mass-market products familiar to retail investors, including structured notes, unit trusts and investment-linked life insurance policies.

According to Singapore’s Straits Times, financial institutions in Singapore now have to provide customers with simple, user-friendly ‘product highlights sheets’ and providing ‘health warnings’ on complex investments in appropriately large font.

There are those who will also post the question of how sound the financial institution providing the guarantee for capital guaranteed products are, especially since the financial services industry have seen so many banks get in trouble or go bust between July 2007 (when the subprime crisis began) and now.

One way to find out is to look at the credit rating and balance sheet of these guarantors, which are usually public information.

Otherwise, information on the guarantors are also available on the prospectus of the fund.

A website on investment education had this to say about capital guaranteed funds: “When we invest with little or no risk, we pay for it by compromising on potential returns.”

Thestar


Friday, November 06, 2009

赌博及投机

“投机是将一点小钱,转为大钱的方式,但它可能不算成功;投资,则是成功的方式,因为它避免把更多的金钱,变为小钱。”~费德萧微特

赌博行为

许多研究人员相信,人有好赌的天性,所以就算我们需冒不必要的险也甘之如饴。

今 天我们来谈谈“赌博者之误”(gambler fallacy),它和“代表性直觉”(representative heuristic)息息相关。人们会掉入赌博失利的陷阱,主要是因为他会以这样的逻辑做猜测:“我已经连输3晚,今天我一定会赚大钱!这些人相信,其结 果受运气因素、技术或其他特别情况所控制。

但这是不正确的判断,就赌博而言,之前发生的情况与正要发生的情况无关联,且不会对未来造成影响。

举例来说,若抛掷50仙硬币出现“头”的几率共有6次,下一次会不会就出现“花”?若你认为出现“花”的几率很高,甚至高出50%,那你就掉入了赌博失利陷阱。

抛掷硬币其实是项“公平”的游戏,之所以这么说,是因为出现“头”或“花”的几率,一直都是50%,而且每一次抛掷的结果,和之前都无关联,之前抛掷的结果也不会影响目前或之后出现“头”或“花”的几率。

许多人相信,一只股票已经连续起了好几天,就不太可能再攀升。同样的,他们也会持有一只已经跌了一段时间的股票,因为他们相信,该股不会再滑落了。

投机

根据投资大师-沃伦巴菲特之师--本杰明葛汗的说法,没根据“安全的回酬”或“合理的回筹”进行的活动,就被称为“投机”而非“投资”。

著名经济学家约翰迈那也曾说过,投机是一项测试市场心理的活动。

投机者在市场比比皆是,而且投机方式五花八门,包括:产业、油价、货币、原产品、凭单、股票等,只要有机会赚快钱,便有投机活动。

因此,投机者是根据目前的市场情况及市场心态,预测未来的价格走势。

索罗斯洞悉这样的概念,并警告众人成为投机客的风险,他说:“对和错并不重要。最重要的,是你在对的时刻,赚了多少金钱;错时又损失了多少。”

至于我,则选择成为一名理智的投资者,因为我知道若只根据猜测或谣言买卖股票,将会换来难以预测、短期而且无保障的结果。

南洋商报

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Precious metals as alternative investments

PRECIOUS metals are considered alternative investments for investors to preserve wealth as they rush for safety amidst the decline of financial asset values. Precious metal resources are rare and finite therefore, have high investment value. The metals include gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium.

Gold is the most popular investment of all the precious metals due to its characteristics and the roles it played throughout human history. Gold is the oldest universal currency and has been used as a medium of exchange for thousands of years. Over the centuries, gold is appreciated for its beauty, rarity and near indestructibility. This article will focus on precious metals as well as gold in particular.

Benefits of investing inprecious metals and gold

There are many reasons for investors to invest in precious metals and particularly gold. Some of the key advantages are as follows:


* Precious metals offer good diversification opportunities

Investments in precious metals are not closely correlated to stocks and bonds.

For instance, gold helps in portfolio diversification because it is generally lowly correlated with other assets such as stocks and bonds.

"Asset diversification through assets that have low or negative correlations is essential in the wealth management process. Investors diversify to reduce risk in the portfolio and to increase returns, just like the saying 'don't put all your eggs into one basket'. To diversify, investors may put their money in several types of investments to minimise the impact of one type of asset on the overall performance of the total portfolio," said Datin Maznah Mahbob, chief executive officer, Funds Management Division of AmInvestment Bank Group.

The chart shows that the gains in gold price were higher than those of the S&P 500 Index and the MSCI World Index in the past four years. During the global financial meltdown last year, gold managed to hold its value and recorded a positive gain of 3 per cent as compared to -42 per cent and -38 per cent for the MSCI World Index and S&P 500 Index respectively. The same could be seen when the stock market crash occurred in 2002 in the US and Europe.

* Potential price rise for precious metals due to an imbalance supply-demand relationship

"There is an imbalance of supply and demand for precious metals including gold and platinum. The increasing demand for gold, particularly in Asia, could not be matched by gold supply," Maznah said.

In 2008, global gold demand of 3,804 tonnes exceeded the supply of only 3,512 tonnes. Total gold mine supply accounted for 2,064 tonnes or 59 per cent of the total (Source: World Gold Council, August 2009). There has not been much increase in gold supply due to expensive production cost for the metal and the limit in gold sales by central banks in recent years.

Global gold jewellery demand was recorded at 2,186 tonnes or 58 per cent of the total demand last year (Source: World Gold Council, August 2009).

Over the past ten years, gold demand for jewellery, coins and medals made up around 83 per cent of global demand (Source: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research, August 2009).

There is also mismatch in demand and supply for platinum. In 2008, global platinum demand was 6.35 million ounces as compared to platinum supply of 5.97 million ounces, based on Johnson Matthey's "Platinum 2009" market review. The supply dropped by 9.5 per cent primarily due to production problems in South Africa including interruptions to electricity supply, smelter shutdowns and bad weather.

Going forward, the price of precious metals is expected to increase since low supply could not accommodate the increasing demand.

* Gold for long-term inflation protection

Inflation is an increase in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. It decreases the amount of goods or services that consumers can buy. Inflation reduces purchasing power of consumers due to currencies losing their value.

"Gold could maintain its long-term value through the market cycles. Therefore gold is preferred as a hedge against inflation as it could keep up with the inflation rate," Maznah said.

For example, the price of a limousine is equivalent to about 5 kilograms of gold today. Comparatively, the same amount of gold was required for a limousine 50 years ago although the price of the luxury vehicle has increased many times.

* Gold is a good hedge for US dollar

Gold is considered a good protection against depreciation in currency as the value of gold does not depreciate.

"Gold is an effective hedge against fluctuations in the US dollar, which is the world's main trading currency. There is a negative correlation between gold price and the US dollar. This relationship is consistent over time and across exchange rates," Maznah added.


* Gold is a store of value

Money or currencies may lose their function as a store of value during inflation. On the contrary, gold, silver, real estate and other stores of value have shown their consistency over time. Demand for gold increases during political, social or economic distress because the value of gold retains in most situations.

Gold is the only currency in the world that is not subject to competitive devaluation, debasement (the practice of lowering the value of currency) or the excessive promises of overspent governments. It is stable and does not rely on obligation for repayment by any government or corporation.

Conclusion

Investors have the options of making direct or indirect investments in precious metals to enjoy the many benefits of this asset class and to ride out the storms of a volatile market. Precious metals generally perform well during periods of rising inflation, heightened financial market volatility and geopolitical event risk.

Thus, this asset class remains an investment tool of choice for wealth preservation and portfolio diversification.
*This article is contributed by the Funds Management Division of AmInvestment Bank Group.

定期存款多樣化 門檻高 膽要大 本要夠

到定期存款(簡稱“定存”),你想到什么?

少得可憐的利息收入應該是第一聯想,穩健固定收入的吸引力料被拋到九霄雲外。

不過,國內定存已非只是定存般死板簡單,市場湧現琳瑯滿目的定存洐生產品,添加許多額外投資元素在內。最吸引人的莫過于超過2.5%的耀眼標題,但天下真有白吃的午餐嗎?

千萬別看漏了最下方的“附帶條 款與條件”!

市場上的定存產品多不勝數,但大資本的高門檻高往往讓小市民望而卻步。
國家銀行自去年11的月中開始,已3度下調隔夜官方利率(OPR),從原本3.5%調低到目前2%。

對于許多定存客戶來說,高企利息收入早已成為歷史。

畢竟每每國行宣佈升息時,銀行隨即調高基本借貸率(BLR,基貸率);但若國行降息,存款利息卻首當其衝。

因此,眼看擁有固定利息收入的定存魅力大不如前,應變速度甚快的銀行紛紛推出定存的相關產品。

除了傳統定存,業者為自家旗下的定存添加額外投資元素,可包含單一外幣、多元貨幣或單位信託投資,並以超高利息水平企圖打動消費者。

認請目標要求

縱觀國內銀行提供的外幣定存,儘管標榜逾2.5%的誘人利息,但相對進入門檻非常高。

例如每月存放額至少5000令吉、特定存放期限、特定貨幣供選擇等,“一份耕耘,一份收獲”的道理發揮得淋漓盡致,沒有高額資本的消費者始終無福消受。

國內大部分銀行皆提供外幣定存,惟消費者不得不謹慎其中陷阱。
邁利財務規劃董事經理張梅香回應《中國報》說,如今國內定存產品琳瑯滿目,眼花撩亂的消費者最終必須認請本身的目標和要求。

她認為,無論定存或相關產品,消費者做出任何決定前都必須非常了解產品的特質和風險。

“在于銀行立場來說,拼業績、達到銷售目標乃至高無上,難免銷售過程中存有漏洞和不透明。”

再者,雖說定存客戶可從具有投資元素的定存賺取回酬,卻不能忘記天下沒有風險的投資,加上銀行征收各式相關費用,恐怕到時“賠了夫人又折兵”,真是得不償失。

志必得證券(Jupiter Securities)研究主管馮廷秀指出,納入外幣的定存就像投資般存有一定的風險,特別是普通消費者難以追蹤匯率走勢。

“若非特定需求如孩子在海外深造或常常出國,一般來說消費者持有外幣定存,未必真能坐享高利息收入的好處。”

國內商業銀行利率水平(%)
銀行 截至2009年6月15日的定存利息(月份)(不包括特別促銷) 基貸率
1*
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
艾芬銀行
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.50
5.50#
安聯銀行
2.00
5.55
大馬銀行
2.00
2.10
2.15
2.20
5.55
盤谷銀行
2.00
2.05
2.10
2.20
5.55#
大馬美國銀行
2.00
5.55#
大馬中國銀行
2.00
5.55
大馬三菱東京日聯銀行
2.00
5.25
聯昌銀行
2.00
2.10
5.55
花旗銀行
2.00
5.60#
大馬德意志銀行
2.00
5.55
國貿銀行
2.00
5.55#
豐隆銀行
2.00
5.55#
大馬匯豐銀行
2.00
5.55
摩根大通銀行
2.00
5.25
馬銀行
2.00
2.05
2.10
5.55
大馬華僑銀行
2.00
5.55#
大眾銀行
2.00
2.05
2.10
5.55
興業銀行
2.00
5.55
大馬渣打銀行
2.00
5.55#
豐業銀行
2.00
5.55
皇家蘇格蘭銀行
2.00
5.25
大馬大華銀行
2.00
5.55
* 最低存放額5000令吉 # 主要貸款率與基貸率相同鎮鎮 資料來源:大馬銀行公司ABM)

政府銀行相爭 消費者錢牽何處?

公眾踴躍搶購大馬信託基金,除了獲政府擔保,最重要是投資門檻低。
政府和銀行都瞄準消費者持有的優渥現金?

馮廷秀說,定存利息偏低導致消費者不願把錢存進銀行,可觀的數額讓政府和銀行都“垂涎三尺”。

他指出,政府開銷龐大,頻頻自資金市場籌資,消費者也開始轉向政府推出的債券和基金等。

“因此,銀行也使出混身解數,推出繁多的定存促銷,爭取消費者青睞。”

政府早前推出的50億令吉人民儲蓄回教債券(Sukuk Simpanan Rakyat)、33億3000萬令吉的大馬信託基金(ASM)及2020宏願信託基金(ASW2020),都在公開發售的首天,便被公眾踴躍搶購。

這些由政府擔保及發行的投資產品,為人民提供穩定回酬投資。

其中最重要因素莫過于它不是一項大數額投資,滿18歲的大馬公民,只要擁有至少1000令吉,就可以投資上述信託基金。

命名誤導 結構存款非存款

提到存款時,投資者或許聽過結構性存款(structured deposit)一詞,但對它所知不多。

結構性存款雖然用上“存款”這個字眼,但實際上它是結合存款與期權(Option)的金融產品,絕對不是存款。

因此,結構性存款與大眾存放金錢在銀行戶頭的存款截然不同,投資者絕不可視之為定存,更不應將它當作定存的替代品。

結構性存款擁有多種類型,常見的包括外幣掛鉤存款、股票掛鉤存款及貴金屬掛鉤存款。

銀行業者紛紛使出混身解數,多元化定存產品吸引消費者,特別是持有優渥現金的年長者。
投資者選擇結構性存款前,除了知道潛在回酬,也必須清楚了解它的運作機制、風險及轉讓限制等。

銀行大搶錢 誘人高利促銷

縱觀國內銀行提供的定存,除了以傳統定存為主,大部分國內外銀行皆提供外幣定存,外幣選擇也大同小異,概況美元、英鎊、澳元、港元、新元、泰銖、日圓等。

馬銀行(MAYBANK,1155,主要板金融)旗下5項定存,其中3項為回教定存。

以盈利分享(Mudharabah)為基礎的回教特別投資戶頭,存放期限1個月到12個月,但最低存放額高達5萬令吉。

大眾銀行(PBBANK,1295,主要板金融)早前推出外幣定期存款Power Invest促銷,連續4次存放可享有高達12%年利率。

不過,最低每月存放額必須達5000令吉、在單張收據,以及連續存放4個月,而且回酬受制于外幣匯率的波動。

聯昌銀行(CIMB Bank)推出幾項定存促銷,為期6個月的定存享有2.3%年利率,但最低存放額5萬令吉。

該行專為年長者而設的1個月定存利率也是2.3%,最低存放額5萬令吉。

大眾銀行和聯昌銀行的外幣定存,最低存放額則必須相等于1萬令吉的幣值。

大馬銀行(AMBANK)定存更包含單位信託投資元素,為期1個月最低存放額5000令吉,3到12個月最低存放額則是1000令吉,並將投資在旗下單位信託基金。

外資銀行方面,大馬華僑銀行(OCBC)最近展開為期88天的定存促銷。

最低存放額2萬令吉的首28天年利率達2.5%,后60天則2.05%;超過10萬令吉存放額的首28天利率高達2.8%,后60天也是2.05%。

外幣定存高利 小心暗藏陷阱

定存利率偏低,固定利息收入的定存魅力早已大不如前。
外幣定存開始湧現,儘管消費者趨之若鶩,卻不能不防暗藏的陷阱,包括特定加碼幣別、高存款門檻,以及限期又限量。

銀行往往定下特定的加碼幣別,未必是流通性較高的美元或英鎊。

若相關外幣在國內用途有限,加上市場流通性不強,市面上又較少連結相關外幣的投資商品,投資者到時要脫手管道非常有限。

此外,定存加碼門檻高,成為一般投資者進場外幣定存的另一個考慮要素。

加上各銀行推出定存高利促銷,限期又限量,存放期限短則1到3個月,最長不超過1年,而且有些存款還設有上限。

投資者若想投資外幣定存,不得不留意這些限制,以免賺了高利息,卻賠掉存款解約、折扣的利息損失等。

投資產品借名存款 難辨購買風險

銀行把投資產品借名存款,導致投資者難以識別,早不是冰山一角個案。

匯豐銀行今年就在北京,因為把投資產品借名存款,而和一位客戶方先生打起一場官司。

方先生表示自己購買匯豐銀行的“雙利存款”,一個月后存入的17.9萬美元(約60.56萬令吉)和11.1萬加元(約35.18萬令吉)已變成澳元,並虧損34萬人民幣(約16.84萬令吉)。

方先生認為,銀行隱瞞產品真實情況,讓他誤以為“雙利存款”為定存。

一審判決法院駁回方先生的訴訟請求,匯豐銀行無需承擔投資者損失。

此案銀行雖然勝訴,但一些名為“存款”,實際卻具有一定風險的投資產品命名方式,也引起專家和投資者注意。

命名為存款的投資產品,對投資者具有一定的誘導性,使投資者有可能從字面上更容易接受投資產品。

諾貝爾經濟學獎得獎者羅傑梅爾森(Roger Myerson)曾指出,金融機構出現道德風險問題,一部分源自於我們“濫用”了對金融機構的信任。

Chinapress

Thursday, October 29, 2009

房貸省息大作戰

業者說觸底啦!國行之前接連出手降息,各銀行房貸利率也緊跟下降,陸續推出更低的房貸優惠以搶攻房貸商機。不少房貸族近來最關心的議題大概是怎麼貸款最省息?

利率創新低,除讓房貸戶引發“轉貸潮”之餘,也牽動民眾的購屋神經,將原本在門外觀望的投資者“吸”進房市。

然而,在產業復甦消息“敲鑼打鼓”、浮動利率房貸變搶手、市場高呼:“房貸族是最大受惠者!”的同時,想著“錢”進房市的民眾是否想過,垂頭喪氣的利率也可能隨經濟復甦有朝一日恢復趾高氣揚?

利率有潛在上揚風險

ING保險首席投資員王銘元預計,大馬經濟明年恢復增長。當該情況發生,利率可能會提高,同時強調民眾須理解通膨率不可能長期保持在低水平,必定會捲土重來,基於目前的短期利率空前低,民眾更應對利率變動保持謹慎。

他直言不諱,貸款利率越低越好、房貸率將保持低,甚至更加低、目前每月還款“負擔得起”,以及可在其他地方取得更低利率都是民眾當前的融資偏誤!而民眾典型與不足的借貸觀念是習慣性根據現有財務狀況來衡量貸款的攤還能力。

“事實上,民眾必須釐清,房貸率‘重設’是一個陷阱且難預測,房貸率不會永遠處於低水平,倘若本身貸款屬浮動利率貸款,房貸付款將受波動。”他提醒,許多人非常專注目前的低貸款利率,卻沒有預見利率潛在上揚的風險。

精明財務規劃3步驟

他指出,精明財務規劃第一步是設立目標,並瞭解財務目標不能超越本身的風險承擔度;第二步是多元化投資,避免把所有資金投注在同一籃子,因為不同投資品有不同市場,此舉將有助於多元化風險;第3步是儘量掌握確定性。

“投資往往受‘不確定性´牽制,反而是投資者應設法降低這些不確定風險,其中貸款利率波動就是財務規劃的不確定因素之一,想要買房子的無殼族最好衡量自己的還款能力再下手。”

他認為,在理財過程中,除銀行存款、租金收入、保險工具外,貸款也是關鍵的資金來源管道,以通過存款、債券、股票、產業投資,來達到退休、教育、保障與財富累積的目標。

固定VS浮動=各有千秋

究竟固定還是浮動利率貸款配套有利可圖?顯然兩者“各有千秋”,投資者反而胥視本身的目標與條件來掌握彼此的優勢。

ING保險首席營運員伊索披露,選擇固定利率房貸的好處在於利率完全透明化(期限高達30年)、無須擔憂利率波動、在能夠於預定期限內還清貸款下助於節省時間、且提供具彈性的“儲值(Top up)”

工具,惟壞處是當貸款配套的浮動或基貸率下滑,利率將保持不變。

浮動利率適合短期貸款

針對浮動利率貸款,他認為,比較適合尋求短期貸款的人,因為開始的負擔輕,儘管如此,他不忘提醒,貸款額可能因利率走高而增加。

浮動利率可以選擇性啟動提取還款功能(redraw facility),然而,在還款期限可能遭延長下,結果可能導致無法在預定期限內還清房貸,而且,一旦貸款處理不好,或面臨很多問題,以及缺乏便利性。

伊索強調,民眾在貸款前必須區別兩種類型利率,即受國家銀行利率政策、流動性與通膨預期等因素主導的短期利率,以及受固定收入市場主導的長期利率,同時在選擇浮動利率貸款前必須清楚,利率是依基本貸款利率(BLR)還是銀行同業拆息市場(KLIBOR)來定,畢竟有關的利率將隨市場利率波動,並影響房貸。

“雖然在利率下跌時,浮動利率貸款者可享有更少的每月付款,但是,在利率上漲時,貸款者不知不覺得付出更多‘血汗´錢。”他補充,升息期間是採浮動利率房貸客戶最痛苦的時候,因為隨國行升息時,民眾付出的房貸利息就會更高。

固定利率減少不明確性

基本上,住屋貸款期限若達5年以上,最好選擇具有固定房貸支出特性的固定利率房貸,避免持續升息的風險,做好家庭財務規劃。

伊索說:“利率固定在某水平,意味可清楚知道每個月的房屋貸款數額,以為前路未雨綢繆。”

此外,王銘元認為,精明的財務規劃往往與管理風險息息相關,一些不確定因素可管理但一些不能,因此,建議民眾不妨利用固定貸款利率來減少不明確性,尤其涉足長期貸款的房貸。

詢及如果民眾購買多項產業,是否應結合浮動與固定利率貸款配套來分散風險時,伊索回應,對於散戶而言,這概念並不合適,因為這將複雜化貸款問題,除非本身的資產高達1000萬至2000萬令吉。

“一般上,若擁有多項產業,大部份人傾向選擇固定利率配套,主要是不太能承擔太大的波動。”

須清楚未來還款能力

ING保險房屋貸款主管林吉基認為,民眾在選擇貸款產品以前,應考慮下列3項因素,包括如何償還未來10至25年的貸款、分期付款的預付金多寡、若突發情況發生,是否需進行第二次貸款?

他指出,目前利率的確是前所未有的低,看起來負擔輕,但長遠來看,這“可負擔”因素或受利率走勢波動而動搖,所以,房貸族首要考量因素是,必須清楚本身還款能力,這進而牽動另一問題:是否能夠承受未來利率波動?

“民眾應瞭解自身的預算,再通過財務規劃來選擇貸款產品。”他舉例,如果民眾不能承擔未來波動性,就應選擇固定利率產品。

他也提到,民眾必須清楚自己能夠支付多少預付金,是否有足夠現金來應付產業估價費等其他費用?

若沒有足夠現金,就應選擇“零門檻”貸款產品,讓相關財務機構承擔這些費用,自己則只承擔預付款。

勿因利率優惠衝動買屋

所以,即使利率低,民眾仍應試算收入與房貸支出比率,不要僅憑利率優惠就衝動買屋,以免未來房價或利率波動,損失更大。

根據調查,一般家庭開銷比重如下:消遣、娛樂與教育(13%)、醫療保健與費用(3%)、公用開銷(4%)、交通與通訊(15%)、衣褲與鞋類(13%)、食物(23%)、房屋貸款(26%)。

這項數據反映,房屋貸款在日常生活中扮演舉足輕重角色,也是財務規劃的一部份,民眾應更有效地管理貸款成本,以達到更高的理財效益。

租屋或買屋?三思後行

王銘元坦言,無論市場情況如何,產業乃是民眾理想的長期投資選擇,只是精明的投資方式應避免不確定性因素影響投資與借貸成本。

“民眾在購買產業前更應三思而後行。為何租屋?為何買屋?都是必須認真考慮的目標。”

伊索披露,如果民眾迅速需要住所、住的期限不明確、能夠預付的成本較少,也不想承擔維修與修理費,可考慮租房;置產則可為通膨作護盤、發揮潛在資本增值,同時能夠持產業主權,為自己擁有的產業付款。

他直言,租屋猶如為他人房子還款,長期而言,購買屋子有助於抗通膨,所以是較明智之舉。

保險公司搶攻房貸規劃市場

另一方面,隨商業模式轉變,保險公司已日漸扮演了財務顧問角色,基於貸款是財務規劃一部份,進而推出房貸配套。

王銘元坦言,保險業者因資金來源較穩定,有能力規劃固定利率房貸。

這間公司是數家保險公司有提供房貸配套的公司,大馬是為數不多的國家中,能夠提供固定利率房貸的國家,因而看好大馬市場的房貸潛力。

據他瞭解,中國與香港皆沒有固定利率的貸款服務,只有台灣才有相關服務。他強調,房貸服務只是公司資產的一小部份,不超過10%。

這間公司自今年1月以來,固定利率貸款配套的利率水平處於4.85%,並按月對此評估。

國人“購屋能力”攀頂峰

根據馬銀行研究,隨著利率降至5.5%的近10年低水平,房貸率現介於3至3.5%(因借貸者以基本借貸率負2至2.5%鎖定貸款),負擔能力達到頂峰,房屋負擔能力比率現處於4.82倍高峰,遠比2006和2007年的3.57倍和2.43倍為高。

馬銀行研究指出,大馬的低利率或於2010年杪方逐漸調高,在低利率仍將保持一段長時間下,已刺激產業市場的購興,預期一些借貸者將繼續藉此機會進行再融資或貸款購置產業。

產業銷售3年內有望續增

產業向來是抗通膨最佳選擇之一,隨著現有房貸利率僅較12個月定期存款2.5%高出50至70基點,加上良好的租金回酬,以及負擔能力的提昇,預計產業市場未來2至3年仍有望延續近期銷售額增長趨勢。

馬銀行研究指出,銀行在近期產業需求走揚下扮演推手角色,相信在產業發展商創新行銷活動持續、低房貸利率托高負擔能力、住宅產業價格觸底反彈等因素支撐下,首要市場銷售的迅速增長勢頭將獲得延續,整體產業市場前景趨向樂觀。

經濟不明朗和全球股市崩潰,促使買家在2008年下半年開始對產業市場卻步,但隨現金回扣、免律師費、印花稅等獎掖措施,買氣開始在今年首季凝聚,促使一些發展商的銷售在6個月內突破10億令吉,產業發展商創新和成功的行銷活動料延續至2010年。

馬銀行研究表示,鑒於住宅產業市場前景改善,他們樂觀看待未來12至24個月基本借貸率將保持低迷。

選房貸要貨比三家

另外,一名本地銀行家認為,民眾在選擇貸款以前不妨貨比三家,事實上,在各銀行房貸愈推愈低的高度競爭下,一些銀行如國貿與渣打銀行都有推出具吸引力的貸款優惠方案,房貸戶大可仔細比較。

她坦言,一些保險公司向來有提供誘人的固定利率房貸配套,貸款期限不一,不管國行升息幾次,利息支出並不會增加,民眾不妨考慮。

儘管如此,她提醒,部份號稱固定利率的房貸方案,其實也有分階段,例如第一年固定的利率和第二到五年都不同,平均起來並不一定會比銀行分段式浮動計息的房貸方案划算,想要申請的房貸戶得先比較清楚。

轉換房貸要留意“違約金”

此外,她指出,房貸“搬家”要特別注意是否需額外支付“違約金”,最好先留意當初簽定的房貸合約條款,避免付出的違約金比省下的利息還多,反而得不償失,勞民還要傷財。

違約金條款一般出現在“前低後高”的房貸利率產品,以第一年超低利息吸引民眾申辦房貸,第二年則會提高加碼利率,並以浮動利率計算,貸款人若提早還清可能需承擔違約金。

她建議,民眾若有意替房貸“搬家”,大可先跟銀行爭取降息,一些銀行有免費提供轉貸相關手續費,然而房貸戶不只要評估利率優惠,也要仔細計算整體平均利率。

她認為,房貸族選擇房貸商品時,應以家庭財務規劃為首要考量,同時評估目前住屋需求年期,若在3年內考慮售屋或換屋者,轉貸對民眾的效益較不大;但若有5至10年或以上的長期住屋需求者,可選擇固定利率房貸,避免房貸支出隨著利率調升而增加。

星洲日報/投資致富