Sunday, January 04, 2009

美房貸危機啟示

美房貸危機啟示

政府在不久前調低基本借貸率,緊接下來商業銀行先後宣佈調低貸款利率,對於準備購屋、投資產業、或目前仍在償還房貸分期的我們,這有哪些啟示?

金融海嘯重創全世界經濟之後,幾乎各國政府都在努力振興經濟,而振興經濟的辦法包括:降低利率、寬鬆銀根等。這些政策和房地產投資有怎樣的關係呢?

美國已大幅調低利率,中國、台灣、澳洲、蘇聯,以及歐洲各國也都已經紛紛降低利率,未來極有可能還會繼續調低,利率愈低愈有利於房地產市場的復甦,減輕分期付款者的財務負擔,每月的利息開銷獲相應減少是可以肯定的。

美國聯儲局主席柏南克曾經說過:資金流通性如果不足,經濟很可能“中風”,所以各國中行紛紛降低存款利率,保障存戶的安全,提供寬鬆的資金環境,而寬鬆的資金將有利於房地產市場的復甦。

銀行緊縮根造成

經濟學家認為,美國這一波房貸風暴的起因,雖然是因為房價調整而發生,但真正的導火線卻是銀行緊縮銀根,大批收回房屋將之拍賣,導致房價崩盤,引發金融海嘯。

換句話說,如果銀行不緊縮銀根,不大批收回房屋將之拍賣,銀行不會因而倒閉,海嘯也不會發生,可能只是房屋價格過度期下跌,經過一段時間的調整後,房價自然會恢復原有水平,銀行也可正常營運、持續獲利,經濟活動亦可正常發展。

房地產市場問題演變成金融危機,終究是令人遺憾的事,政府看到問題的癥結後,採取的政策是:第一,不再緊縮銀根!因此,接管了兩房公司,降低存款利率,提高存戶的保障金額,並對銀行提供直接援助,以確保銀行的現金足夠,希望銀行不再緊縮銀根。

第二,減少拍賣房屋。政府努力限制銀行收回房屋、延緩銀行拍賣房屋,甚至收購銀行的房地產不良債務,避免增加房地產市場的拍賣活動,確保房價不會因為拍賣而崩盤。

如果美國政府的政策奏效,美國的房屋市場將快速回穩,估計要1至3年內形勢會明朗,上漲則要看金融與經濟環境的進展,環境如果轉佳,反彈的速度將愈快。

房地產成最佳投資指標

當經濟前景不明朗時,房地產很可能成為最佳的投資指標,日本是最好的例子,她歷經十多年的不景氣,經常更換首相,雖然銀行利率長期保持極低水平(在0至0.5%之間起落),經濟卻難有起色。

在這種停滯的環境中,部份人民選擇炒外匯、炒股票、炒債券、炒衍生商品,但每一次的金錢遊戲,卻造成另一次的損傷,

持有房地產成為保有財富的方法之一;好的房地產不但具有保值功能,還可以擁有平穩的租金收入,維持基本的生活水準,房產也是銀行最能接受的抵押資產之一。

投資商品的選擇,是考驗一個人的判斷能力,除非不想投資,否則任何環境下都必須選出一種“相對較佳”的商品。

在金融海嘯之後,我們可以發現,各種以債券或證券為名的衍生性金融商品,其風險之高,超乎想像;各種企業的股票因未來經濟發展欠樂觀,亦欠缺上漲潛能;各種貨幣,也將因為利率持續走低,以及購買力大幅下跌而不宜保有,剩下的投資良機就只有實體商品!

在實體商品中,工業產品因大量生產而出現供過於求的情況,再加上購買力下跌,自然不易增值;相 對稀少的商品如:黃金、石油、糧食,甚至藝術品,雖然是不錯的選擇,但有的不易儲存,有的缺乏收益性及流通性,最重要的是價格多已被炒高,漲價空間有限。 只有價格己相對調整的房地產,其投資的優異性,在這個時候才比較明顯。

大家不妨想想,為甚麼有人會採取“危機入市”策略?如果我們也能調整心態,認真考慮海嘯後的投資機會,可能是趁勢抓緊下一個投資良機。

星洲日報/財富廣場/地產札記‧2008.12.20

基金回酬學問大

基金回酬學問大

我們都知道,股票投資有“選時”這一難題,基金投資同樣也會面臨在甚麼時候買基金合適的難題,畢竟投資總要獲利落袋才是最真實。

基金投資有句名言:“會買的是徒弟,而會賣的才是師傅”,畢竟投資要獲利,買點要掌握,賣點更不能輕忽,盲目殺出不但將投資佈局搞亂,更可能因賣點不佳而讓回酬遭侵蝕。那麼,甚麼時候才是適當的放手時間呢?

何時該考慮贖回基金?

雖說當前股市跌跌不休,但贖回基金不只時間點重要,以下因素也不可忽略:

1.基金面臨系統性風險

配合景氣循環轉換或贖回基金,是投資基金的“基本戰略”,而掌握市場變動狀況則屬“戰術”問題,畢竟國際股市除受基本面牽引外,還得看政策面、消息面,甚至技術面的臉色,因此投資者最好定期檢視自己的基金表現狀況,適時獲利了結或停損脫售。

但你得注意這必須是長期趨勢的改變,千萬不要因為市場短期的波動而貿然贖回,這樣可能贖在低點。

2.投資目標已經完成

這是基金投資終結的主要原因。儘管基金是以長期投資為主,但在投資者達成投資目標的情況下,還需要投資者及時進行投資的終結。

只有這樣,才能更好地鎖定投資利潤,避免因為市場震蕩而出現基金收益進一步下降的情況。可以說,基金長期投資也不是機械性的投資,而是一種有目標性的靈活性投資。

3.財務或投資目標出現變化

如果當初擬定的投資計劃發生變動,所執行的計劃就必須隨之進行調整。比如收入減少,又不願意降低投資目標,可能就必須考慮贖回部分基金。

4.基金績效落後同型產品

目前,市面上的基金產品眾多,基金表現不可能皆盡如人意,總會存在因基金經理管理和運作基金產品不善,而出現基金淨值不斷下跌的情形。

如果持有的基金長期都比同型產品差,即使處於虧損狀態,最好也趕快贖回轉換到更有機會的基金,長期抱著績效落後的基金,只會浪費時間成本。當然,若有獲利也一樣,應趕緊了結,轉到其他更有潛力的基金。

5.投資者風險承受力達警戒線

這時投資者應當及時對所選擇的基金產品進行調整。以回避基金淨值的進一步下跌,對投資者心理造成更大的投資壓力,從而因投資情緒的波動而產生非理性的投資行為。

6.基金公司誠信出現問題

長期投資的規劃,是建立在對基金公司的信任之上,如果基金公司的誠信出現問題,當然應該快速退出或轉換至其他公司。

基金贖回4大禁忌

就算你決定贖回基金時,還是不可掉以輕心,應檢查是否犯了下列禁忌:

1.基金不是股票,切忌為搶時機而進進出出,讓基金申贖手續費侵蝕獲利。

2.基金不是股票,切忌追高殺低,最後造成“不是套牢就是大賠”。

3.切忌需資金前一日才贖回--倉促決定的基金贖回點,很難碰上最佳賣點。

4.切忌受其他基金公司投資顧問慫恿而贖回基金,應客觀檢視已投入的基金表現與整體市場展望,而非人云亦云,可以詢問多家投資顧問意見再做決定。

總結

其實,雖然股市暴跌與基金贖回幾乎是互為因果的現象,但在長期投資的前提下,投資者也可通過贖回這一投資原則,讓投資決策變得更靈活,也能有效地監督基金表現。因此,下次我們將帶你走一趟基金贖回之路。

星洲日報/財富廣場/基金道‧2009.01.03

2009年是採購年-不管經濟好壞財要理

2009年是採購年
不管經濟好壞財要理

綜合經濟學家和官方預測,再看看海外經濟狀況的惡化,我國經濟成長步伐放緩,幾乎是不能改變的事實。

不過,這絕對不是放棄理財的時候。

如果說沒錢應該理財,那經濟不好時,更應該理財!依今年經濟狀況,錢應擺在股票、基金、黃金、債券、期貨或其他等等呢?

2009年經濟前景黯淡、股市不振,卻是善用現金部署的時候。
財務規劃師一針見血說:不管經濟好壞,財,還是得理!

他們認為,對積極型的投資者而言,2009年不失為“採購年”。

基金經理說,馬股市大部分股票價格已吸納並反映市場利空,正是趁低撈寶、也是部署長期規劃的時機。

經濟前景雖黯淡,但財務規劃是為了長期資本回酬,只要彈性調整投資策略,理財路上還是可以通暢無阻。

VKA財富管理董事經理兼財務規劃師林俊喜回應《中國報》提問說,資產組合主要針對3大類別,即保守型、中等風險型和積極型,但最終的財務分配,胥視個人財務目標和風險承受度。

“這3類基本投資模式不變,但經濟和股市盤整之際,個人應根據本身目標,加強資產組合。”

ISI理財培訓機構總執行長黃凱順強調,不管經濟好壞,都要理財。

“理財應是生活的一部分,而不是在經濟面臨困境時,才開始行動。”

只不過,年底檢討過去的財務規劃,再在一年之始稍作調整或重新部署,仍是精明理財之道。

這兩位理財師都認為,對向來有規劃的人而言,目前正是加強投資組合的良機。

黃凱順說,投資是為了以后的回酬,雖然經濟沒以前那么好,但未來回酬才是最重要的理財宗旨。

加強組合良機

“不管行情如何,理財原則不變,就是‘先分配,后花費’。”

林俊喜認為,2009年經濟雖放緩,但不大可能出現全球經濟大蕭條,尤其目前各國央行都在減息,也提供銀行體系的存款保證。

輝立資金投資總投資長洪國興指出,一年內經濟環境變化大,投資者得變通採取不同的投資策略。

他說,利空不斷湧出,經濟預期將繼續走下坡,但股市大多已反映這些利空,不少股價已吸納負面消息,波動不大。

房地產景氣欠佳.發展商推配套振買氣

房地產投資涉及金額較大,不是每人都有能力投資。
持有充裕現金者,或可開始物色房地產或不動產。

林俊喜指出,房地產景氣欠佳,尤其高檔房地產,發展商一般提供優惠配套,或另類行銷來帶動買氣,投資者可加以參考。

“目前不是置產最佳時機,但可開始物色,待明年次季以后才選購建竣的現成房地產,減低潛在面對的風險。”

他建議,投資宜選擇需求強且價格合理的中檔房地產。

洪國興認為,除了部分房地產價格被炒高的熱門地點,大部分房地產價格很可能將持穩。

確認持有力

鑑于股市投資魅力和機會更誘人,他建議,除非是十分值得投資或購買的房地產,否則較明智的做法是分配資金在股市。

由于房地產投資涉及金額較大,邁利財務規劃董事經理張梅香建議有意投資者,先確認個人持有力是否足夠。

她指出,投資房地產前應考量3大因素,即投資目標、風險和房地產適銷性。

“關鍵元素,包括投資成本、預期回酬、風險承擔力、回酬期限長短等,都得逐一厘清,以免影響財務狀況。”

破解基金投資迷思.應持續定期定額策略

全球股市在過去3次牛年,正好出現重大轉折,今年股市表現或有轉機。
股票跌得慘兮兮,投資者臉色也隨著股票和基金波動而“變色”,許多人因此抱怨聲四起,有者甚至停止每月的定額投資。

定期定額的投資策略,旨在股市低檔時繼續投資累積基金單位,然后在股市高檔獲利時出場。

因此林俊喜直言,固定投資者若在此時停止投資,是最大的錯誤。

經歷股市大起大落的2008年,他認為,新一年應該提升資產組合,在低價位買入以均衡投資成本。

加碼好時機

洪國興一針見血:“基金不賺錢,是因為投資者一般都在股市高峰期才買入,反而低迷期間停止投資。”

他直言,許多人一開始的投資策略即走錯方向,正確應是“低買高賣”,但很多人卻顛倒策略,“高檔加碼、低檔減碼”,自然會賠以更高投資成本,或無法取得合理回酬。

“目前才是購買或加碼基金的時候,例如過去定額投資200令吉,如今可以增至400令吉。”

除了投資策略錯誤,另一投資迷思,是偏好過去表現佳的信託基金。

洪國興說:“投資基金應考慮未來的前景和潛能,不能單從歷史表現來作判斷。”

他建議,投資前應視個人要求決定基金種類,再選基金管理公司。

3大類投資組合
比重保守型中等風險承受度積極型(高風險)
低風險產品70%50%30%
較高風險產品30%50%70%

投資產品類別

積極型:波動性較高的單位信託、股票、期貨、黃金、房地產、外匯投資產品

保守型:銀行儲蓄如定期存款、人壽保險、銀行的保本產品、公積金、債券、年金存款(annuity)

避免重蹈覆轍.檢視財務狀況再出發

2009年已過了好幾天,如果你還沒檢視過去一年的財富狀況或資產組合,不妨花些時間回顧和估算,既可避免在新一年重蹈覆轍,也順道拋開歷史包袱,重新出發。

林俊喜建議,在一年之始先檢視個人現金流管理,再調整收入和支出,目的是提高可供支配的盈余。

他舉例,若想增加投資比重,可透過削減開銷來取得多余現金,為財富增值。

經濟前景欠佳,他建議提高儲備現金,將原本可應付3個月的金額,增至6個月。

其次,是債務管理。

林俊喜指出,儘可能清還或償還部分高利率的貸款或銀行透支,尤其應該清還信用卡欠款。

第三,就是計算個人淨財富。

“根據近年的投資組合,可從中知道自己屬于哪類型的投資者、適合哪種投資產品?”

馬股離觸底不遠
牛轉乾坤有機

2009年是農曆的牛年,說到“牛”,或許投資者最樂意聯想到的情況是:“牛”轉乾坤、“牛氣沖天”,最后再來個“大牛市”。

馬股市從去年308政治海嘯開始,即陸續下跌陷盤整,不少藍籌股亦跌至誘人水平。

那2009年,股市能否攀返牛勢、來個“牛”轉乾坤呢?

只是經歷過去變化多端的一年,不管經濟學家還是基金經理,皆不敢給予確切答案。

洪國興認為,雖無法預測股市的最低點,但近期海內外關鍵指數未繼續大跌,大部分股價也走穩,相信馬股離觸底已不遠。

組合:現金+產業+股票

為此,他不排除馬股在新一年“牛”轉乾坤的可能性。

但此時,民眾務必得貫徹實踐財務規劃的至理名言─“不要把雞蛋放在同一個籃子里”,也就是分散投資風險。

他建議投資者,在任何時候都應多元化投資組合,以分散風險,經典組合包括現金、產業和股票。

林俊喜也認為,馬股外資早在308政治海嘯后陸續撤離,大部分股項也快觸底,基金經理已開始買入,民眾不乏投資機會。

紅翻黑‧黑翻紅
牛年屬轉勢年

歷史數據顯示,過去3次的牛年:1997年、1985年及1973年,確實會出現大扭轉,有的是由紅翻黑,有的是由黑翻紅。

最近一次牛年為1997年,當時亞洲金融風暴剛開始蔓延,亞股盛極而衰,MSCI亞太不含日本指數在短短5個月內,慘跌41%。

但在前一年即1996年,卻是延續之前的牛市,漲幅達10%。

再上一個牛年即1985年,美、日、英、德、法等國在9月簽訂“廣場協議”,全球股市隨即觸底,並上演約兩年多頭行情。

重大轉折

MSCI世界指數單年上漲37%,此后更創造日本經濟的黃金時期,但在1984年,卻是波動震盪。

推前12年至1973年,當時爆發第一次的石油危機,油價從3美元飆漲至13美元,全球經濟和股市同陷困長達2年。

但在1972年,股市全年卻上演多頭走勢。

過去3次牛年,正好股市都出現重大轉折,這些歷史數據雖不能作為未來走勢的依據,卻在暗示,牛年轉運機會甚濃!

投資者分四大類

1. 待開竅型:向來沒有投資,但持有一些現金

由于缺乏理財和投資知識,現階段最好把錢存放在銀行,暫時按兵不動,應慢慢學習規劃財務。

林俊喜建議,此類“待開竅”者,新一年應多加留意財經新聞和理財資訊,不斷充實自己。

儘管國行減息,拉低銀行定期存款回酬,但目前平均3.5%年利率的定存,仍高于通脹水平,不失為穩紮穩打的理財工具之一。

2. 保守型:作風謹慎或多投資信託基金者

有購買單位信託的投資者,主要分為保守型或較積極進取型,因為基金因投資組合不同,風險亦各異。

隨著國內外股市盤整,信託基金過去一年平均縮水30%至40%,但股市盤整之際,卻是繼續投資、發揮“槓桿”(leverage)力量的時候。

這是“拉長補短”的投資方式,在低價位繼續買入以均衡投資成本。

林俊喜指出,投資者應針對經濟局勢和個人財務目標,在新一年重新分配投資組合。

他建議增加高素質、特定領域的基金投資比重,例如房地產相關、大中華地區的相關基金。

洪國興指出,保本基金、平衡基金(各投資在股市和債市)等類型的基金,較適合較保守型投資者。

3. 股市型:投資大部分集中在股市者

2009年經濟前景尤其上半年經濟普遍被看空,但綜合專家看法,一般有投資的民眾此時可開始物色投資產品,以加碼投資。

洪國興不否認,利率趨低加上經濟前景黯淡無光,投資市場或維持動盪。

“反過來看,許多優質股、基金都跌至一定水平,這未嘗不是一種機會。牛市時,極少見到藍籌股跌至如此低廉水平。”

他指出,有人認為目前投資風險很高,也有人認為這是投資良機。

“稍為保守的投資者,可以物色股價已滑落的藍籌股,從低價位進場。”

林俊喜也說:“很多人以為保守型的投資,不涉及股市,這是錯誤的觀念。”

他建議的投資焦點,包括藍籌股和大型資本股,同時也能取得更高股息回酬。

他認為,投資股票最直接的參考標準之一,是比較股價和淨資產值(NAV)。若淨資產值比股價高,意味有關公司資產強勁,可考慮投資。

“此外,投資者宜選擇經營業務一目了然、簡單易明的公司,才能更容易掌握相關行業的變化和風險。”

4. 積極型:可承受風險的投資者

林俊喜認為,此類投資者可投資外國股市或海外金融股。

他舉例,中國經濟體佔全球國內生產總值(GDP)約50%,且股市跌幅遠比馬股大,有意者可考慮趁低買入。

洪國興認同說,海外股市跌幅顯著,可參考投資。

“應注意的是,投資海外得考量外匯風險,宜選擇貨幣呈揚勢和政經局勢穩定的國家,如此獲利機率才更高。”

他透露,簡單的海外市場投資方式,是透過本地基金經理所管理的海外基金,惟此類基金本地並不多,只有20多個。

“若是高額投資者,可透過經紀或在海外開設交易戶頭,直接投資國外市場。”

此外,跌幅明顯的中下級資本的股項,適合積極型投資者,以在相關股項反彈時,藉股價回升取得更高回酬。

掌握更多資訊.冷門產品謹慎為妙

原產品價格雖趨于揚勢,但價格也會因炒作或供需錯配而波動劇烈。
民眾普遍知道的理財產品,包括定存、單位信託、股票、產業、外匯存款等。

至于黃金、紅酒、古董或原產品等,多屬于冷門投資產品,了解或有興趣的人並不多。

原產品如橡膠和原棕油期貨,曾深受投資者追捧;黃金也視為經濟衰退時期的最佳保本選擇。

洪國興認為,原產品和黃金等投資產品未提供股息或紅利回酬,也不像上市公司般會擴充成長,相對下更適合交易而不是投資。

而且,此類產品會根據供需狀況而遭投機炒作。

他認同,不少原產品因未來供應有限,導致價格偏于漲勢,但這些投資品價格也會受影響而波動劇烈。

他舉例說,早前原棕油價格就因為短期的供需錯配,導致棕油價從漲潮中重挫。

此外,債券一般在股市表現欠佳時受落,但洪國興認為,債券殖利率和價格成反比,由于長期利率水平趨低,因此不利長期投資在債券。

大馬評級機構(MARC)首席經濟學家諾再希迪指出,經濟衰退、信貸風險日增之際,企業債券存有一定風險。

“市場高度動盪時期,政府債券相對下或是更佳投資選擇。”

現金為王?.善用才是王

專家強調“哪里跌倒、就哪里爬起來”,若入不敷出,就應該減少支出。
經濟多變,無疑這是個“現金為王”的年代。

這些現金,主要是日常開銷的儲備金,以及在機會出現時善加投資,為財富增值。

林俊喜指出,若持有太多現金,卻沒有加以善用,將錯失為財富增值的機會。

洪國興也說:“握著現金就是為了等待機會,現在就有這個機會了。”

當然,投資產品功能和風險各不同,投資前掌握箇中關鍵,才算做好投資功課,否則可請教財務規劃師,由后者代為服務。

收入分配建議
比重用途
20%長期投資(以在日后達成經濟獨立)
10%家庭規劃(供未來結婚置產,或兒女教育基金)
10%保險規劃
60%日常主要開銷

裁員風刮起.預設最糟情況

投資海外,必須考慮外匯風險。
去年的金融風暴,讓全球掀起一股裁員風,不少企業也受創關門大吉…各種負面消息接踵而至。

因此,規劃前不妨大膽假設,設想可能發生在個人身上,最糟糕的情況。

輕則生意額減少、收入受影響,重則失業、失去收入或破產等。

張梅香指出,裁員風不斷吹,投資者可設想這種情況會否發生在自己身上?一旦不幸成為風暴圈內的一員,現有資金能支撐多久?

她建議,規劃前自行提問,從中探討各種可能性和應對能力,將有助鑑定投資策略。

林俊喜則說,目前趨勢是“三少”,即賺少、花少和存少。

“此趨勢在短期內會改變人們的生活習慣,但長期而言,無損國人生活素質。”

黃凱順認為,若平常有規劃財務資源,若碰上行情不景、收入受影響,衝擊也不會太大。

用以應付日常開銷的后備現金,一般以3至6個月為主。

他舉例,一般生活開銷應該佔每月收入約60%,若握有5個月后備現金,足以應付5個月內的開銷,這期間應可另尋收入來源。

“若新工作的收入比過去低也沒關係,因為根據過去的分配,每月開銷只佔收入的60%,只要新收入有過去收入的60%以上,仍可應付生活需求。”

切忌盲目跟風.簡化問題重新部署

黃凱順重申,投資是為了部署日后的回酬,選擇投資產品胥視個人對相關領域的掌握。

“理財要站穩立場,切忌盲目跟風投資,如此只會衍生問題。”

他透露,許多人投資失敗或財務陷困后不願接受事實和原因,以致不能擺脫困境。

“有時候問題其實很簡單,要解決重新出發,胥視當事人肯不肯去面對。”

例子很簡單:平日駕大車、住洋房的人,若財務陷困、入不敷出,最簡單且直接的首個解決方法,就是換小車、換小屋。

不過,就是有人會放不下面子,困自己于死胡同內。

“要重新站起來,道理很簡單,就是‘那里跌倒,就那里爬起來’。”

中國報

Feng Shui tips for Year of the OX

Feng Shui tips for Year of the OX


In these uncertain times, Tee Lin Say talks to Feng Shui experts Joey Yap and Geraldine Goh for their take on investing in the Year of the OX.

Joey Yap

Founder and Master trainer of the Mastery Academy of Chinese Metaphysics<

Celebrity feng shui master Joey Yap isn’t just celebrated for his ability to enthrall a crowd of audience with his hillarious feng shui tips and analyze a person’s Destiny Code.

The predictions made by Yap in the year of the Rat have been rather accurate.

Readers who had heeded the forecasts made by Yap in the BizWeek issue of Feb 9, 2008 would have thrived.

Yap correctly predicted that the second half of the year would be worst off, and one should be holding cash come end 2008. He also predicted that oil prices would start their downtrend after the second half.

Hence, what does the master has to say about the Year of the Ox?

Joey Yap

Unfortunately, it isn’t good, as the world’s financial problems are far from over. Why, it’s merely serving starters. Yap is quick to say that it’s not doom and gloom as opportunities abound.

“(The year) 2009 will see the year of the Earth Ox in an earth cycle. As it is earth, what we see is stagnation, and the image is one of a pile of mud,” says Yap.

He foresees dirt emerging, or rather, past mistakes coming to haunt. This is the year to address problems created in the past.

Yap sees volatility in markets, dissatisfaction with how things are done, and retrenchment without reason.

“It will be a daunting year. We haven’t really reached the peak of the problems yet. We are probably one third through this difficult cycle. We haven’t tasted the main dish, and will most likely experience it during the second half of the year. Desert will probably be nearer towards the year-end,” he sums up.

Nonetheless, Yap says not to fret as this is a nescessary cleansing for better times to come.

“It will get worse, but it won’t be bad for everyone. It’s not good for things which have metal elements – financials being the main theme. Metal is seen to be covered by earth, with a lot of dirt piling on it. Therefore, the financial industry won’t prosper this year.”

Yap foresees the first half of 2009 as being “all right”, while the second half will see deterioration.

He says countries will be fortunate if they don’t enter a recession.

“(The year) 2009 is pictured by people pushing other people out. Most likely the people being pushed out are those in existing power. It is good as things need to change for the positive to happen,” says Yap.

On this note, he adds that the financial tsunami needs to happen. The year 2008 up to 2010 will be the rebuilding years, before wealthy times appear.

How do investors armour themselves in such dire times?

Yap says it’s all about preserving what we already have.

“I would say that the best thing to invest in is yourself. Most people have the victim mentality. I want to say this: You are not the victim. That is nonsense. Everyone has the same two hands and two legs and the same 24 hours. Instead of saying you are worst off because the economy is languishing, why don’t you think how you can value add instead,” says Yap.

Hence, under such circumstances, Yap says to do one’s job better, and not to blame other people.

For investments, Yap advocates going long term.

“Look three to four years ahead. In times like these, you cannot make quick gains. My advice is to hold on to cash.

“As a buyer, I would suggest you make your investments and acquisitions in the second half of the year, while as a seller, do it in the first half.

“People need to remain optimistic about what they can do. They need to look out for opportunities. Wait for the market to take its huge fall, then it will be time to go shopping,” he says.

Yap cautions that there will be a little spring appearing in mid-2009, which is in actual fact, a false image.

“People will think this spring marks the start of a rally, but no. Things will in fact go down after that. My advice is for investors to ride on the wave of this little spring when it happens. Use this opportunity to sell,” says Yap.

For those feeling very negative, Yap says it won’t be such a bad year.

“You need times like these to expand your empire. Things were getting so expensive, and if you had been preserving cash, now you would have the money to buy and expand. You can’t wish your problems away, but underneath all these lie opportunities. Last time, things were so expensive, but it’s now so cheap. You can make your killing now,” he says.

Sectors that are seen able to preserve cash are the wood-related sectors such as academic related, printing, self-help, teaching. The health industry will also do well. As plantation is wood related, crude palm oil may see a chance of going up again.

It won’t be great for oil, however. Oil is of the fire element. Earth dampens fire. So Yap says its difficult for crude oil to appreciate. Construction prices will also go down.

Currencies, which are defined by the water element is seen to be contaminated by dirty earth.

He says that Asian countries will do better than other parts of the world. Malaysia is also better insulated than other countries.

“(The year) 2010 will be good. It will mark the start of the rejuvenation process. It is like the big sweep. We shouldn’t be that negative because we know at the end of the tunnel it is going to be good,” says Yap.

Meanwhile, as the ox is in the earth cycle, Yap sees earth related problems such as landslides and earthquakes happening.

(Yap will be giving a feng shui and astrology seminar entitled “Thriving in Challenging Times” on Jan 17. Please call 03-2284 8080 for details.)

Dr Geraldine Goh

Founder of the Institute of Tao Studies, Malaysia

Dr Geraldine Goh feels that the Year of the Ox is not necessarily negative at all, and she sees a chance of revival in the second half of the year.

Dr Geraldine Goh

Nonetheless, in a year that is streaked by challenges and provocation, Goh advises investors to do things within their means.

“Having the holding power is extremely important this year,” she says.

For the year, the image she conjures is one where water is lacking and the metal store is closed. In investment terms, metal is represented by the financial services sector.

For things to happen smoothly, there is a need for flowing water into the economy. Water is represented by activity.

Hence, for the year to prosper and pick itself out of the present financial woes, there is a need for recurring transactions, spending and consumption to balance out the water shortage.

“The government’s policy is geared towards spending, and that is the right thing to do. The US government’s lowering of interest rates and pumping money into the system are all positive measures which encourage the flow of water,” she says.

Goh says that once the water element is balanced out, other elements will start functioning smoothly. To thrive in 2009, one needs to have a lot of activities going on.

For instance, the education, motivational and speaking industries are under the wood element, which she says will do well.

Goh says if water nurtures wood, then the store of money will be opened. She sees sectors in the earth and fire elements continuing to do well, as these are necessities.

The food and beverage industry is lumped under fire, while the property sector is earth.

“People will still buy houses and still need to eat,” she says.

She says the outlook for crude oil and crude palm oil are uncertain, as they have a combination of earth, fire and metal elements.

“As long as there is water, a lot of the problems will be solved,” she says.

Meanwhile, in the first half of the year, Goh sees people in authority coming out to contribute in a constructive manner.

People in high positions need to be humble this year, and come down to “earth” if they want to seek better solutions or solve the problem.

There is no place for an inflated ego in the Year of the Ox.

“Policies by people in power will be meant to rectify the current unsound situation. When these policies first come out, people will feel disturbed, shaken and threatened, but the policy will be good to right past wrongs,” she says.

Goh feels that the second half will start flourishing.

“To make money, there will surely be risks. But if you have foresight and you have the money, then make your investments in the first half. You will likely make more money than others.

“Individually, it is up to you what you want to buy. I think it is a good time to invest in areas which traditionally appreciates in the long run. I would still buy property and stock-wise bank shares,” she says.

On the global outlook, Goh says Asia for now is stronger than the Western nations, but it is the Western side that holds more potential. She sees the West leading the eventual recovery in the world.

In terms of investment luck, the horse, dragon, monkey, tiger and dog will be better off. This is especially apparent for the horse and dog, which will have better luck in money making and windfall opportunities.

The dragon and tiger’s luck are in terms of career advancements and promotions. For instance, their hard work or research will see a breakthrough, where the fruit of the hard work is reaped.

(The Institute of Tao Studies is located next to the Taman Desa Hospital. Please call 03-7983 0388 for details.)

Thestar

Stocks picks for 2009

Stocks picks for 2009


Stocks picked for 2009 include IOI, Tan Chong, AirAsia, PPB Group, Petronas Dagangan, Fraser & Neave, Resorts, Petronas Gas and Public Bank.

IOI Corp Bhd

For exposure to one of the best managed conglomerates in Malaysia and a proxy to a recovery in crude palm oil (CPO) prices, there are few better stocks than IOI Corp Bhd.

The catalysts for a recovery in this include CPO prices increasing to a more reasonable range of between RM2,000 to RM2,500 per tonne, and the launch of its Sentosa Cove projects.

IOI was the worst casualty during the recent sell-off in the plantation sector due to its high level of foreign shareholding, recent foreign exchange losses and departure of key management personnel. It is trading some 20% lower than early 2007 but given the estimates that this plantation heavyweight is due to earn 25.2 sen, it is trading above the forecast price/earnings ratio for Bursa Malaysia in 2009 but that could be pinned to the premium the stock has commanded of late.

Tan Chong

Motor Bhd

Tan Chong’s nine months to September 2008 net profit of RM217.6mil beat the market’s estimates and its performance among motor firms is to be admired.

Its third-quarter revenue also hit the RM1bil mark for the first time in a single quarter, or a 69% increase to RM1bil, thanks to higher car sales driven by more launches of new models.

Despite a more challenging year, Tan Chong is expected to guard its margins in the range of 8% to 10% underpinned by higher efficiencies in production and yearly increase in autoparts localisation (from 20% now to a targeted 50% by 2012).

This will lead to further improvement in costs which will also be the company’s competitive edge to hedge against the strengthening of yen against the ringgit moving forward.

Tan Chong will continue to launch three new models every year for the next three to four years given its strategy to garner more market share going forward. And while its profit for 2009 is projected to be lower – it is expected to earn 26.2 sen a share – Tan Chong’s valuations will be at a deep, and somewhat unwarranted, discount.

AirAsia Bhd

Airline shares have had a rough few years as one woe after another has hit this sector. From sky-high oil prices to cut-throat competition, airlines have had to manoeuvre to stay aflot during these trying times.

AirAsia has not been spared as it, too, took a financial hit in 2008 but clearer skies might be just over the horizon for this counter.

A merger between Qantas Airways Ltd’s Jetstar and AirAsia Bhd, if talks end up with the airlines having some form of cooperation, will be a positive for AirAsia.

The other benefit for AirAsia is that despite the economic slowdown, demand for short-haul services remains resilient and low-cost travel is benefiting from downtrading from full-service carriers.

Costs will also be much lower for AirAsia as fuel prices have collapsed. AirAsia will be paying spot prices – US$40 – from January.

The risk of a cash call has also dissipated with the successful financing for a further 37 aircraft, and the airline is projected to post a profit to the tune of 10.2 sen a share in 2009.

PPB Group Bhd

In times of uncertainty, it is always good to look at a company that goes back to basics and PPB Group, a diversified palm oil-based company, offers investors exposure to a number of industries that would benefit in this downturn. This is a steady consumer-oriented stock maybe well known for its exposure to plantation giant Wilmar International Ltd but its other less glamorous businesses will be pulling in the profits as crude palm oil prices remain depressed.

PPB has a sizeable operations in flour milling, sugar refining and feedmills to go with an increasingly profitable cinema operations. These commodity processing businesses will see margins improve as commodity prices remain low and would offset a decline in CPO-related earnings from associate company Wilmar.

Estimates have this stock earning 81.3 sen a share this year and the dividend is forecast to be a healthy 30.3 sen a share.

Petronas Dagangan Bhd

It’s not a sexy stock but its steady earnings and rock-solid business model is something investors might want to have a look at during a period of economic uncertainty.

Petronas Dagangan is the leading petrol station operator in the country and its margins, even though they fluctuate, and its nature of business give investors the security of investing in a profitable business.

Its gross profit may take a hit with the decline in pump prices but volume growth, from an ever growing number of petrol stations in the country and lower fuel prices, will offer stability of earnings.

For its 2010 financial year (its 2009 year ends in March), the company is forecast to post higher profit of 75 sen a share and dividend of 44 sen a share.

Petronas

Gas Bhd

This is another stock that has a boring label tattooed onto itself but its defensive nature will offer investors protection during times of market and economic volatility. Deriving earnings from the volume of gas sold, the risk to its earnings is small even though an economic slowdown may lead to lower a consumption of gas. That is because there is already a shortage of gas in the country.

The shuttering of petrochemical plants in the east coast may see lower demand for industrial gasses from its centralised utility facilities but the impact is expected to be small. Helping future earnings will be the company’s foray into the power generation business via its maiden power plant in Sabah.

The steady nature of Petronas Gas’s business is reflected in its forecast earnings, as estimates derived from Bloomberg has pegged the company earning 54.5 sen a share for its 2010 financial year and declaring a dividend of 47.7 sen a share.

Public Bank Bhd

It may be among the most expensive banking stocks in the world but that does not mean the stock should be ignored. The fact that it has attained such a status when banking stocks around the world are looked at with more suspicion means there is something worth looking out for in this bank. The high valuation is also a sign of confidence in this counter, signalling the market is putting a high degree of certainty that this bank will survive.

The strength of Public Bank makes it a stock worth watching out for. Its business is deeply consumer and small business centric and it has ridden the wave of lending activity in those two segments for nearly the past decade, chalking up strong double-digit growth rates and super low non-performing loans along the way.

Whether this will continue bears watching but it will be tough picking against the most defensive-natured banking stock heading into 2009. It has a forecast earnings of 72.2 sen a share for 2009 and a dividend of 69.5 sen a share.

Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd

One look at the stock chart of this counter and it’s almost a no-brainer pick. This stock has gained year-on-year for the past five years and the company’s profits continued to rise during the time.

It has without much fanfare done the business of giving growth while maintaining the hallmarks of good management. Expansion into neighbouring countries plus the steady defensive nature of its business - the company is a major bottler of soft drinks in the country - augur well for shareholders of this company.

As one analyst remarked, the major shareholders of this company are long-term investors and for good reason. The company is forecast to post earnings of 51.6 sen a share for its 2009 financial year ending Sept 30 while dividends are strong at 50.8 sen a share.

Resorts

World Bhd

With a net cash per share of 78 sen, Resorts World Bhd will still be viewed by investors as a safe stock to own during troubled times.

Resorts’ image was recently blemished by related-party transaction issues when it acquired 10% of Walker Digital Gaming (WDG) and 100% of Digital Tree (which earns royalties from WDG) for RM250.5mil.

If investors are willing to see beyond this “dishonour”, Resorts actually offers a cheap exposure to the solid domestic gaming operations, which continue to do well even in trying times.

It is also for this reason, that during market upturns, the stock tends to outperform the broader market, rendering it a firm favourite among foreign investors.

One broker said Resorts’ net cash hoard of more than RM4.3bil could be used for more acquisitions and capital management initiatives.

A check showed that 66% of analysts polled by Bloomberg have a buy call on the stock and have forecast the company earning 22 sen a share and declaring a dividend of 7.2 sen a share.

Thestar