分散風險、成本低廉-ETF存老本養退休金

「我要用ETF來存退休金！」台灣投資人愈來愈瘋ETF（指數股票型基金），作家王文華早在2003年就開始買ETF，打算抱個30年，當做退休老本。

王文華跟ETF結緣，不是因為熱愛投資，相反的，是因為對投資失望。1994年，王文華拿到美國名校史丹佛大學MBA學位後，開始進入投資市場，剛好遇到網路科技泡沫正不斷脹大，跟很多人一樣，他也瘋狂追逐不斷被炒高的科技股，直到科技泡沫終於爆破，所有的積蓄歸零。

「我好像看到一部我主演的戲，但是最後沒拿到片酬。」笑看當年賠光畢業後好不容易累積的幾百萬新台幣積蓄，王文華在冷靜沉澱後，決定再也不冒亂壓個股的風險，選擇ETF重新出發。

不必費神挑標的　投資成本比共同基金低

「ETF就是一個最能分散風險的投資，風險分散掉了，才有辦法長期累積資產。」事實上，具備財經背景的他，即使投資ETF也會做縝密研究，他說，若以美股道瓊工業指數過去100年的走勢為例，整個趨勢明顯向上，即使不可能投資100年，放個30年總還是能賺錢。

道瓊工業指數過去81年漲32倍

所以，2003年後，他陸續買進連結美股道瓊、S&P500指數的ETF，再搭配漲勢比較凌厲的中小型股ETF，例如連結美股Russell 2000指數的產品，一直持有到現在都沒賣過，他說，這些都是未來退休後，可以支持他遊山玩水的額外資產。

事實證明，2003年以來，S&P 500指數即使經歷去年金融風暴重創，累積仍有30%報酬，平均年報酬率還有5%。

因為是當做長期投資，王文華說，他並不會特別地去細盯指數變化，通常每隔一段時間就買一點，慢慢的累積，像台灣50ETF（0050）也是他頗偏愛的標的，成立初（2003年6月）就買進到現在，報酬率也有近50%。

為 什麼王文華會把ETF當做退休準備的投資商品？除了ETF本身具備分散風險的特性（編按：因為ETF為追蹤指數，也就是投資一籃子股票，已經分散掉單一個 股的風險，也因為被動的跟隨指數波動，比較不會有選錯共同基金的問題），投資成本低廉，也是長期投資者偏愛的主要原因。

專門研究ETF產 品、滙豐中華投信機構業務發展部協理游景德做過估算，若把共同基金跟ETF的主要投資成本（編按：包括基金管理費、股票買賣手續費等）比一比，若投資1 年，共同基金約比ETF高出2%，若以複利的方式計算，投資10年，共同基金的投資成本會比ETF高出22%。

投資ETF愈久，成本節省的效果愈大

「當然，也有共同基金長期的投資績效是大幅超越大盤，也就是贏過跟隨指數的ETF，但是你必須挑到對的基金，長期投資才能平衡掉多出來的成本。」ING集團旗下的安智證券投資長劉益銘這麼說。

王文華的邏輯則是，想要在本身的固定薪資之外增加額外收入，就必須要加入這個市場，但是不必抱著一定要打敗市場的決心，只要能跟隨市場走，挑對市場，長期還是能穩健獲利。

瞄準新興市場　金磚四國最有成長潛力

歷經去年全球金融風暴，未來，該怎麼透過ETF才能達到長期獲利的目標呢？

劉 益銘認為，不管短線或者長線，新興市場的投資獲利機會都大於成熟市場。對比較積極的投資人來說，或許手上已經持有新興市場的共同基金了，不過，由於共同基 金大部分都還是投資幾個比較大的市場，一些成長力道強、比較少被注意、或共同基金選擇比較少的市場，則可以透過ETF來補強，例如土耳其、泰國或者印尼。

由於ETF是緊跟指數波動，習慣短線波段操作的投資人，可以趁新興市場一出現拉回時就分批買進，因為現在整個股市的走勢還是往上走的，短期內不太容易看到大幅回檔，所以，為了分散風險，短線操作的投資人只要一有拉回就可以買一點，等達到設定的獲利目標時，就先了結出場。

不像共同基金的表現是根據經理人主動選股的判斷準確與否，基金投資的個股表現也差異頗大，ETF反正就是跟著指數走，對波段操作的投資人來說，買賣點的判斷反而更容易些。

至 於長線投資，趨勢還是應該瞄準新興市場，劉益銘及游景德都認為，過去，大家都習慣把核心投資放在成熟市場，但是近幾年，新興市場不論在基本面或者經濟成長 面都大幅進步，反觀成熟市場因為去年金融風暴，可能還要花好一段時間才能修復損傷嚴重的經濟。未來，核心投資反而應該逐漸偏重在新興市場，其中又以金磚四 國最有繼續成長的潛力。

監管逾新台幣5,000億元資金的摩根富林明全球新興市場投資總監提塞林頓（Richard Titherington）也認為，若以獲利成長潛力的角度來看，新興市場股市目前仍處在合理價位，至於未來最具上漲潛力的單一國家股市，除了巴西外，他最看好非洲。

《Smart智富》月刊根據提塞林頓、劉益銘、游景德及多家投資機構對未來投資市場前景的預估，加上投資風險考量，針對不同特性的投資人，整理出4套ETF的投資組合，提供投資人做為投資搭配時的參考。

做好資金控管　3策略擴大投資續航力策略

跟股票或共同基金一樣，投資ETF也要有資金控管的準備，也就是雖然投資戰線可以拉長，但是搭配適時的獲利入袋或者持股調整，更能擴大長期投資的續航力，以下為3種資金控管的策略：

策略1》分批買進
跟共同基金定期定額投資方法一樣，ETF也可以分批買進來分攤成本，游景德建議，像現在市場波動很難抓，投資人不妨自己設定時間，例如每個月同一時間就進場買進。

策略2》不定時調整持股水位
劉益銘指出，投資人依照自己設定的成熟、新興市場配置比重（編按：或參考右頁的資產配置建議），如果新興市場股市波段上漲很多了，可以暫時減碼至原本設定的比重，多出來的錢可以先放在現金部位，待市場有回檔時逢低再買。

策略3》依照平均報酬率設停利點
游景德建議，投資人可以依照各市場過去的平均報酬率來設定未來的停利標準，不過，他建議投資人，如果是做長期投資的準備，最好已經連續投資3年以上才開始做停利這件事，獲利累積的效果會比較顯著。

例如，新興市場每年合理的報酬率約在12%，持有3年的ETF約要有36%的報酬率，如果達到了這個標準，就可以先賣掉一部分，如果是買美國或者歐洲的ETF，每年合理的報酬率則可以定在6%。

挑ETF留意5件事　選擇規模大、流動性佳

至於挑選ETF，綜合國際財經期刊富比世（Forbes）及多位投資專家的建議，則有以下5點必須注意的地方：

注意1》資產規模
就全球ETF掛牌數最多的紐約交易所來看，ETF的規模至少要1,000萬美元以上，如果在此水準之下，代表這檔ETF沒有什麼投資人有興趣，流動性就會比較差。

注意2》交易狀況
以美股掛牌的ETF來看，每天至少要有幾百萬股的交易規模，交易規模愈大的，流動性愈好。

注意3》追蹤誤差
基本上ETF應該緊跟指數波動，不過，由於ETF還必須保留一部分現金，所以跟指數波動還是有一點落差；或者，有些ETF經理人會有一些主動調整的情況（例如在投資組合中用期貨避險），就可能讓ETF的表現跟指數偏離，基本上同類ETF，應該選擇追蹤誤差數字較小的。

注意4》市場地位
在同類ETF中，發行歷史愈久的ETF通常能吸引較多投資人青睞，因為追蹤同一指數、發行歷史較短的ETF，可能投資內容跟歷史比較久的ETF沒有太大差別，但是規模通常較小。

注意5》折溢價情況
ETF 因為是追蹤一籃子股票或者指數，根據追蹤標的的價格可以得出ETF的淨值，也就是ETF的真正價格，基本上，交易的市價跟淨值應該是要貼近的，但有時候可 能因為市場過熱，導致市價高於淨值（即所謂的溢價），如果用溢價買進，就是買得比較貴了；同理，如果賣在折價點，就是賣得太低了，最好的狀況是折價買進， 溢價賣出（編按：基智網www.funddj.com可查詢ETF市價及淨值比較）。

在台灣，幾乎大型券商都能用複委託的方式，讓投資人買賣海外的ETF，投資人只要開立複委託帳戶，就能輕鬆在台灣買全球市場，如果不想冒挑錯個股或基金的風險，ETF是長期投資不錯的選擇。

另外，由於兩岸金融交流日益緊密，中國又是未來最受矚目的投資市場，今年第3季台灣陸續引進在香港掛牌、追蹤中國股市相關指數的ETF，提供台灣投資人更方便的管道。

4套ETF資產配置，讓你累積長期獲利

Smart智富

What are ETFs and why is it beneficial to buy them?

Personal Investing - By Ooi Kok Hwa

LATELY, the number of ETFs that get listed on Bursa Malaysia has been increasing.

At present, we have a total of five ETFs listed in Malaysia. Unfortunately, we have noticed that not many investors are aware of these instruments and there is also a lack of understanding on the true value of these ETFs.

ETF stands for exchange-traded fund. Buying into ETFs is almost similar to buying normal mutual funds. The key differences are that investors can buy or sell ETFs in a stock exchange or go through an authorised participant whereas investors can only buy and sell mutual funds through unit trust companies or other financial institutions.

ETF originated in United States. During 1960s and 1970s, some fund managers in the US discovered that it was quite difficult to beat the stock market index. They discovered that it was better to buy stocks that mirrored the index composition as many fund managers found that they tend to underperform the index.

As a result, the ETF industry has been growing in the US from two ETFs in 1995 to more than 900 ETFs listed in the US now. At present, there are many types of ETFs available in the US, for example ETFs on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies and countries. For stocks, ETFs can be further divided into different types of market capitalisation (big cap vs small cap), equity styles (growth investing vs value investing) as well as different types of sector funds (like ETF on stocks in technology, health care or financial institution sectors).

One of the key advantages of buying into ETFs is that it is cheaper to buy ETFs as compared to normal mutual funds. Investors need to pay about a 5.5% sale charge (also known as front-end load) for normal mutual funds whereas they only need to pay a normal brokearge fee of 0.7% (inclusive of all other charges) for ETFs.

Comparing similar type of funds, the annual management fee for ETFs is generally lower than that of mutual funds.

Normally, ETF will charge about 0.65% per annum (0.6% for the annual management fee and 0.05% for the index license fee).

However, normal mutual funds will charge about 1.5% annual management fee. Assuming an investor intends to buy an index fund and intends to hold the fund for a one-year period, he or she will incur about 1.35% (0.7% - total transaction fee and 0.65% - annual management fee and index license fee).

However, the investor will incur about 7% (5.5% for sale charges and 1.5% for annual management fee) if he buys into the normal mutual funds. Given that ETFs are using the “in-kind” creation and redemption of shares, they eliminate any price discrepancy to net asset value (NAV) due to the supply and demand pressure.

As compared with close-end funds where investors may buy at the premium or discount to its NAV, the price that we pay for ETFs will be closed to its NAV like the normal mutual funds. As an added advantage over mutual funds, ETFs are generally more liquid than normal mutual funds as we can buy and sell them through secondary markets.

Please refer the chart for the mechanism of creating an ETF. The reverse of all of the arrows will be for the redemption of an ETF.

In addition, ETFs provide investors the benefits of portfolio diversification, same as normal mutual funds. Given that they will try to replicate the benchmark indices, their performances will be very close to the indices.

In Malaysia, sometimes we notice that some mutual funds may underperform their benchmark indices.

In short, we believe that there will be more ETFs getting listed on the stock market.

It will be to investors’ benefit to understandhow they can add ETFs onto their investment portfolios as a cost effective investment alternative.

Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting

Thestar

How Piotroski Beats The Market

If you haven’t heard of Joseph Piotroski, you’re not alone. He’s probably the least well-known of the investment “gurus” who inspired my strategies. Actually, he’s not even a professional investor, but instead an accounting university professor. In 2000, however, Piotroski showed that you don’t need to be a smooth-talking Wall Street hot-shot to make it big in the market.

While teaching at the University of Chicago, he authored a research paper that showed how assessing stocks with simple accounting-based methods could produce excellent returns over the long haul. No fancy formulas, no insider knowledge—just a straightforward assessment of a company’s balance sheet. His study turned quite a few heads on Wall Street. It focused on companies that had high book/market ratios— i.e. the type of unpopular stocks whose book values (total assets minus total liabilities) were high compared to the value investors ascribed to them (their share price multiplied by their number of shares).

Quite often, such firms have low book/market ratios because they are in financial distress, and investors wisely stay away from them. On certain occasions, however, high book/market firms may be good companies that are being overlooked by investors for one reason or another. These firms can be great investment opportunities, because their stock prices will likely jump once Wall Street realizes it’s been shunning a winner.

Through his research, Piotroski developed a methodology to separate the solid but overlooked high book/market firms from high book/market ratio firms that were in financial distress. He found that this method, which included a number of balance-sheet-based criteria, increased the return of a high book/market investor’s portfolio by at least 7.5% annually.

In addition, he found that buying the high book/market firms that passed his strategy and shorting those that didn’t would have produced an impressive 23% average annual return from 1976 and 1996. Since I started tracking it in late February 2004, a 10-stock portfolio picked using my Piotroski-based model has outperformed the market, though with some big ups and downs.

Over its first four-and-a-half years or so, it was more than five times ahead of the S&P 500. It was hit hard—like the rest of the market—in 2008, however, falling more than 37%, and it didn’t bounce back much in 2009, gaining just 6.8%. This year, however, it’s up 18.1%, making it my best performer year-to-date. That means it’s up 35.2% since inception, a period in which the S&P 500 has lost 2.2%.

Let’s take a look at how Piotroski’s approach, and the model I base off of it, work.

Diving into The Balance Sheet
Piotroski wasn’t the first to study high book/market stocks. But his research took things a step further than many past studies. He noted that the majority of high book/market stocks ended up being losers, and that the success of high book/market portfolios was usually dependent on the big gains of a small number of winners. Much as low price/earnings ratio investors like John Neff used a variety of tests to make sure low P/E stocks weren’t rightfully being overlooked because of poor financials, Piotroski sought to separate the high book/market winners from the high book/market losers.

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The first step in this approach is, of course, to find high book/market ratio stocks. In his study, Piotroski focused on the stocks whose book/market ratios were in the top 20% of the market, so that’s the figure I use. That’s the easy part. The harder part is determining whether investors are avoiding a low-B/M stock because it is in financial trouble, or whether the company is a solid one that is simply being overlooked.

The Piotroski-based model looks at a variety of factors to determine this, including return on assets and cash flow from operations, both of which should be positive. Piotroski also thought that good companies had cash from operations that was greater than net income. Such companies are making money because of their business—not because of accounting changes, lawsuits, or other one-time gains.

Several of Piotroski’ other financial criteria don’t necessarily look for fundamental excellence, but instead for improvement. This makes a lot of sense; a company whose return on assets had declined from 10% to 1% and whose cash flow from operations had dwindled from $10 million to $10,000 would pass the above ROA and cash flow tests, for example, but it certainly wouldn’t be the type of strong performer Piotroski was targeting.

Looking at how a company’s fundamentals had been changing allowed him to not only get an idea of the firm’s financial position, but also of whether that position was improving or declining. Among the other “change” criteria Piotroski examined were the long-term debt-asset ratio, which he wanted to be declining; the current ratio (current assets/current liabilities), which he wanted to be increasing; gross margin, which should be rising; and asset turnover, which measures productivity by comparing how much sales a company is making in relation to the amount of assets it owns (That should be increasing).

Excerpted from the September 17, 2010 issue of The Validea Hot List.

做人可糊塗 理財不能不聰明

雖說做人難得糊塗，但對于理財，就須學會聰明！

在當今養兒防老觀念日漸模糊、模糊的年代，不讓下一代變成“啃老族”，花了自己的棺材本，已經是很慶幸的事！

退休后的生活怎么過，都要靠自己預先安排。

吸收資訊很重要，通過書籍、雜誌及報紙等管道，可了解更多，以期達到精明理財的境界。
做人可糊塗，理財不能不聰明，學會以下28件聰明理財事：

1）校準理念

如果已經開始投資，而且經歷了牛市、熊市和不牛不熊的市場，那是一件挺有運氣的事，因為資本市場也就這些變化了。

此時投資者有機會校準一下自己的投資理念，如果通過一個週期觀察，發現與現實相差得太遠，那該換個思路來考慮問題。

2）開始投資

在整個市場既不上漲也不下跌時，是投資者最該試著進入市場的時候。要知道80%的投資者沒有獲得資產收益，主要是沒有獲得好的機會，在市場向上的時候，他們認為市場已經夠高了，但市場跌下來了又開始嘲笑，那些進入市場的人是愚蠢的。

3）認識偶像

投資偶像，其實對市場具有一定的指示性，當人們都說“巴菲特，巴菲特”，那基本上是大牛市的后半程；當人們都說“陰謀，陰謀”，那基本上大家都賠得很慘；還有很多人會信奉一些帶有神經質色彩的專家，這些專家總是在說下跌，這總有蒙對的時候，不過這種情況下市場快接近所謂的底部了。

4）整理零錢

整合目標主要有兩方面，第一種情況是那些零散在你抽屜和錢包裏的借記卡和存摺，這些零散資金有很多已經被可惡的銀行收取小額賬戶費用扣光。第二種情況是巨大零錢賬戶，比如基金分紅賬戶，醫保賬戶還有住房公積金賬戶，這些賬戶裏邊的資金巨大，但只給持有人帶來很小的零存收益，你完全可以把這些錢拿來投資，或者沒有好的投資就把它干脆花掉吧！花錢買快樂，總比把錢消耗于通貨膨脹強得多。

5）投資計劃

投資計劃更像個投資紀律，提醒人在情緒化情況下應該控制自己。

6）看本好書

一本有價值的投資書，會讓你的投資有一個好的開始，很多投資者終其一生都沒有走到比較科學的投資道路上來，就是因為第一次接觸投資的時候，看的書不怎么樣。

7）找本雜誌

要使我們的投資富有成果，傾聽什么樣的理財觀點很重要，一本好的理財雜誌就是這種見解的很好檢索工具。

8）檢查信用

應該給你的信用評級留一點時間，整理一下你的貸款情況，為做好下一筆貸款做點準備，不管怎么說我們越來越需要銀行了。銀行在審核每一筆貸款時，都會判斷借款人的信用情況，而判斷的標準主要就是依據個人信用報告。信用報告對個人來說會越來越重要。

9）淘寶開店

如果有不錯的貨源的話，不妨在淘寶開個店。從理論上說，如果你認為繳稅不是個好主意，那在淘寶上開店就是讓社會整體價值擴大，這對整個社會有好處。這可以適當擴大你的現金流，而且可能還很有趣。

10）投資健康

在不忙的時候別忘了做個身體檢查，要知道保持健康就是最好的理財。如果說理財是一個以幸福為目的的學科，那么失去健康，理財投資也就完全沒有意義了。

中國報

李嘉誠14格言教你成功

1、在20歲前，事業上的成果百分之百靠雙手勤勞換來；20歲至30歲之前，事業已有些小基礎，那10年的成功，10%靠運氣好，90%仍是由勤勞得來；之後，機會的比例也漸漸提高；到現在，運氣已差不多要佔三至四成了。

不敢說一定沒有命運，但假如一件事在天時、地利、人和等方面皆相背時，那肯定不會成功。若我們貿然去做，失敗時便埋怨命運，這是不對的。

2、與新老朋友相交時，都要誠實可靠，避免說大話。要說到做到，不放空炮，做不到的寧可不說。

3、你要相信世界上每一個人都精明，要令人信服並喜歡和你交往，那才最重要。

4、即使本來有一百的力量足以成事，但我要儲足二百的力量去攻，而不是隨便去賭一賭。

5、一般而言，我對那些默默無聞，但做一些對人類有實際貢獻的事情的人，都心存景仰，我很喜歡看關於那些人物的書。無論在醫療、政治、教育、福利哪一方面，對全人類有所幫助的人，我都很佩服。

6、人才取之不盡，用之不竭。你對人好，人家對你好是很自然的，世界上任何人也都可以成為你的核心人物。

7、知人善任，大多數人都會有部份的長處，部份的短處，各盡所能，各得所需，以量才而用為原則。

8、做人最要緊的，是讓人由衷地喜歡你，敬佩你本人，而不是你的財力，也不是表面上的服從。

9、決定一件事時，事先都會小心謹慎研究清楚，當決定後，就勇往直前去做。

10、在劇烈的競爭當中多付出一點，便可多贏一點。就像參加奧運會一樣，你看一、二、三名，跑第一的往往只是快了那麼一點點。

11、人生自有其沉浮，每個人都應該學會忍受生活中屬於自己的一分悲傷，只有這樣，你才能體會到甚麼叫做成功，甚麼叫做真正的幸福。

12、苦難的生活，是我人生的最好鍛煉，尤其是做推銷員，使我學會了不少東西，明白了不少事理。所有這些，是我今天10億、100億也買不到的。

13、在事業上謀求成功，沒有甚麼絕對的公式。但如果能依賴某些原則的話，能將成功的希望提高很多。

14、人們讚譽我是超人，其實我並非天生就是優秀的經營者。到現在我只敢說經營得還可以，我是經歷了很多挫折和磨難之後，才領會了一些經營的要訣。

星洲日報／投資致富